Twins Fan From Afar

Twinsdaily.com -- Early Review

2012-02-23T08:34:00.001-05:00

I have to admit that I was quite surprised this past week to read that Seth Stohs, Parker Hagerman, John Bonnes and Nick Nelson -- the premier Twins bloggers that provide great Twinscentric content for the Star Tribune, among other publications -- had decided to give up their individual blogs and join forces. As I write that sentence, it almost sounds like something out of a comic book written for Twins geeks! They are now providing the great content, but for one individual website, Twinsdaily.com. Most of you who read this blog probably are already aware of the change, but for those few that weren't aware, well, now you are.

I recently started posting at Twinsdaily, and am very impressed with the content thus far. As expected, Seth, Parker, John and Nick are all doing their same things, but now other bloggers, such as myself, can post their articles so that we might attract new and different visitors, when compared to the same people that we know visit our personal blog every day. Already I've encountered some great Twins fans thanks to Twinsdaily. Moreover, Twins fans that don't have blogs -- and don't want one -- can still create and post content, and can also comment on other articles.

The possibilities of Twinsdaily are pretty exciting to think about. First, the Star Tribune now has a paywall, so without a subscription, you can't really actively read the articles and comment on the baseball boards anymore. The Pioneer Press, whose coverage isn't great anyway, seems to have their comment board linked with Facebook. I'm not on Facebook, and never will be, and I suspect that there are at least a few others like me. In the end, Twinsdaily should allow more people to have a voice and to express an opinion on the Twins.

I plan on attending both the New Britain Rock Cats opening night, and also two games of the Twins' opening series in Baltimore. I can post game recaps and pictures to Twinsdaily, and I can imagine that other fans will be doing the same thing throughout the professional season. Sure, I can do the same at my blog, and I certainly will, but it will be a good opportunity, I think, to reach out to other fans. In short, those of us with blogs can provide the same material, but to a larger platform, and there is an opportunity for those without Star Tribune subscriptions or Facebook accounts to have meaningful Twins-related conversations online.

I'll be taking a break from blogging for the next few days, most likely. It's time for the annual winter trip to Minnesota, and hopefully a stop at the Twins Pro Shop in Roseville to check out the new gear for 2012. Maybe I can get a discount on that Jason Repko jersey I have been coveting.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Brian Dozier, Player Development and the Future

2012-02-22T08:26:00.001-05:00

Brian Dozier, Twins' shortstop of the future?

I have advocated in the past my belief that the best place for Tsuyoshi Nishioka to start 2012 would be AA New Britain or AAA Rochester. Unlike the front office, I'm not willing to give him a complete mulligan for 2011. I recognize that the broken leg derailed his season, but even prior to that injury -- and also when he came back supposedly healthy -- he was clearly overmatched. It's great that he worked on strength and conditioning in the offseason, but I'm not sure that those things, alone, make him better for the Twins in 2012.

From what I have read, the Twins will use Jamey Carroll as the everyday, starting shortstop (until he is eligible to begin collecting Social Security next season), and all signs point to Alexi Casilla getting the nod at second. The Twins have two more years left on Nishioka's contract, and roughly $6 million; that contract is untradeable right now. On the other hand, Twins shortstop prospect Brian Dozier had a great season at AA in 2011, and also performed very well in the Arizona Fall League. So we have one middle infield prospect, seemingly on the way up, and one major league middle infield player that, in my mind, needs to occupy a spot on some roster, somewhere, for the next two years before he is out of this organization.

Like the Twins' front office, I'm thinking toward the future. I'm not at all confident that we're looking at a playoff team here, so I think it's important to make moves that, although not fantastic or sexy in the short-term, don't handcuff the team in the long-term. By 2014 or 2015, there could be a good new wave of players, including Miguel Sano and Kyle Gibson, and the starting 9 probably will look very, very different.

With that being said, perhaps the best (or least worst) thing to do in 2012 is to have Nishioka be a bench player for the Twins, and give Dozier the starting SS job at Rochester for a full season -- or at least until he demonstrates that he's seen enough of AAA to be promoted. Having both Nishioka and Dozier on the same Rochester team simply doesn't make sense, especially if Dozier is the shortstop of the future for the Twins. I suppose the other option is to send Nishioka to New Britain, but based on Terry Ryan's comments that the team "wouldn't want to see it play out that way," with respect to sending Nishioka to Rochester, I have a feeling that such a New Britain assignment might not even be on the table. At the very least, it's definitely something to think about. I think the Twins' #1 priority with respect to this issue is setting themselves up to have a legitimate shortstop of the future, something they haven't had for a long time.

I'd be happy to hear your comments and ideas -- I'm not at all an expert on the Twins' minor league system, and I know that some of you will have more insight.

One 2012 Postseason Award the Twins Can Win

2012-02-21T08:33:00.000-05:00

The way it seems right now, even with the optimism that accompanies Spring Training, it's tough to imagine the Twins hoisting the 2012 World Series trophy. In fact, I can't reasonably imagine the Twins having the AL Cy Young award winner on their pitching staff, or the AL MVP in their batting order. But there is one award that this team was built for: The Comeback Player of the Year.

According to the criteria, the award is given to a player judged to have "re-emerged on the baseball field during a given season." It's worth noting, for no other reason than that it's sort of funny, that the award is sponsored by Viagra. Historically, Comeback Player award winners, not surprisingly, were sidelined much of the previous season before returning to glory. For example, Lance Berkman won the award for the NL in 2011, after having a fantastic season. But in 2010, he batted only .248 and needed a knee surgery. Jacoby Ellsbury -- for many a favorite for the 2011 MVP award -- locked up the AL Comeback Player award in 2011. If you recall, he only played 18 games in 2010, primarily the result of an early season collision that fractured several ribs. So to say that he came back bigtime in 2011 is an understatement. Our own Francisco Liriano won the award in 2010, and was likely cited for his "full" recovery from Tommy John surgery that sidelined him in 2007, and that took a few years from which to rebound.

Doesn't this award just scream Twins in 2012? Here are a few odds-on favorites for the 2012 AL Comeback Player award.

Joel Zumaya: He hasn't thrown a pitch in a major league game since June 28, 2010, when he suffered a non-displaced fracture to his elbow. Prior to that, Zumaya had a solid career, winning the setup man of the year award in 2006. He had a 2.58 ERA in 2010 prior to his injury, and, for his career, Zumaya has a 3.05 ERA. If he's somehow healthy this season, I don't have much doubt he could instantly come to the top of the list of Twins relievers. It would be a good comeback story, especially considering the painful way that Zumaya last exited a game.

Joe Mauer: Since this award cites players for "re-emerg[ing] on the baseball field," it could rightfully be awarded to a player who, for several reasons, simply wasn't on the baseball field much in 2011. Whether it was the bilateral leg weakness that kept him out most of the first half of 2011, or the pneumonia that eventually sidelined him for good, Joe Mauer simply wasn't around much of last season. Reportedly, he spent a lot of time on the trainer's table, and even went to the Mayo Clinic for diagnosis and treatment. Sure, Mauer's story doesn't have the same appeal as, perhaps, Zumaya's, but it is worth mentioning. If Mauer can stay on the field, and remain healthy and productive this season, he could be a worthy candidate.

Justin Morneau: Here's a guy I would love to see win the award. Sidelined the final month of the 2009 season with a stress fracture in his lower back, the second half of 2010 after suffering a concussion, and off-and-on in 2011 as a result of approximately 30 different injuries, this could actually be more of a "lifetime achievement comeback" award for Morneau. A win for Morneau would mean that he stayed healthy (which in turn would mean that he remained symptom-free from his concussions), and that he played good baseball. In fact, Morneau probably doesn't have to hit 30 home runs and drive in 120 RBIs to win this award. A decent season might be enough for him.

Francisco Liriano: I'm pretty sure that simply being awful the previous season, in and of itself, doesn't qualify you for the award, but Liriano did have some time on the disabled list in 2011 -- in May, and again in August, if I recall. If, somehow, Liriano were to return to 2010 form, he might get some votes.

In the end, it looks like it takes a special story, such as overcoming a serious injury, coupled with good on-the-field play the next season, to win this award. The Twins, though, do have some promising candidates. Perhaps all the maladies suffered in 2011 could mean hardware in 2012? I'm not sure what the award itself looks like, but the fact that it is sponsored by Viagra does raise a red flag.

Jim Souhan: Hack Job

2012-02-20T10:03:00.001-05:00

This is one of the times when it's really nice to have your own voice in the blogging community, completely independent of affiliated media, such as the Star Tribune or Pioneer Press, or the actual organization that I blog about, the Minnesota Twins. Within reason, and hopefully with some degree of accuracy, I can say exactly what I think, and know that, in reality, only a couple hundred people will read it anyway.

Yesterday, I read Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan's article, "Clueless Joe not Cutting it Anymore." If, by chance, you haven't read it, I would recommend doing so before you continue reading this post: I don't want my personal opinion to unnecessarily color your perception of Souhan's column.

OK, did you read it? Great. I'll continue, then.

It's no secret that Souhan hasn't exactly been in Joe's corner for some time now. Especially as Mauer combated physical injuries last season, as well as a blow to his public perception -- mostly a result of the confusing diagnosis of "bilateral leg weakness -- Souhan was pretty quick to take Mauer to task. And some of that criticism was very warranted. Mauer now admits that he should have been more up front last season with the media and the fans. I think it was foolish of Mauer to isolate himself from his teammates, and to isolate himself from the media. That's why rumors started that Joe had Lyme's Disease. Joe is a smart enough guy: I'm pretty confident that he has learned from his mistakes, and we've already seen more media accessibility this offseason from Mauer, assuring fans that he is 100% healthy and ready to go. Will Joe ever be the clubhouse leader that Michael Cuddyer or Torii Hunter was? Maybe not. But can he, in his own way, assume a powerful veteran leadership presence? Absolutely. And as fans, we don't know that he hasn't, or that his leadership style is unsuccessful.

Here are a couple snippets from Souhan's article: "Whether Mauer had anything to do with their mindsets or not is difficult to ascertain, but Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer, two long-term Twins who had spoken of wanting to end their careers in Minnesota, left in free agency . . . ." Yes, Jim, Joe Mauer shared responsibility for Cuddyer taking a considerably better offer than what the Twins made, and was also culpable for the fact that Joe Nathan wanted to pitch for a team that has been in back-to-back World Series (not to mention the fact that there's no guarantee that the Nathan of 2012 will be nearly as good as the Nathan of 2004-2009), as opposed for a team that just lost 99 games and filled their closer role for under $5 million -- considerably less than what Nathan agreed to with the Rangers.

"In the past six months, I've spoken with dozens of key people working at all levels of the Twins organization about Mauer. Most expressed disgust or dismay over the way he conducted himself last season." Ah yes, anonymous sources. I get that people in organizations that say scintillating things to journalists concerning their employer need to be protected, but I find it hard to believe that there are literally "dozens" of dissenters in the Twins organization that were literally champing at the bit waiting to talk to Jim Souhan about a private employment matter. Like any journalist, I'm sure that Souhan has his trusted and reliable sources, but this, Jim, sounds like a witch hunt.

Here's what I know: Joe Mauer has been the Twins' best player nearly every season he has suited up for them. No matter how you measure it -- Wins Above Replacement, Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, Batting Titles, Gold Gloves -- he's already approaching some all-time lists for the Twins. Mauer and his handlers made a pretty big error last season in the way that they skirted the media and the public in the face of his mysterious injuries. Most of the content in Souhan's piece has already been hashed and rehashed again, by Souhan and almost every other baseball writer, professional and blogger, in Minnesota (including myself, I'm sure). Mauer's 2011 was a big mistake, and I'm willing to bet that it won't happen again. For whatever reason, Souhan really has it out for Mauer. Perhaps things happened behind the scenes that soured Souhan? I know that Jim Souhan gets paid to write opinion pieces, and sometimes I enjoy his columns -- and I also think that Souhan is right when he essentially says that Mauer needs to step it up this year. But, as we hit Spring Training, and as we have been told and retold that Mauer is 100 % healthy, I find that it's tough not to be at least a little optimistic (or simply excited to see live baseball again), Souhan comes off as a Scrooge. Jim Scroogehan.

Odds of the Twins Being Competitive in 2012 & Friday Links

2012-02-17T09:15:00.001-05:00

I'm not a mathematician or a statistician. In fact, I tried to avoid taking math in college. I do remember a few things, though. One of them is this: if you want to calculate the odds of two or more independent events occurring, you simply multiply the odds of each individual event together. As a practical example, you know that there is a 50% chance of a random flip of a coin ending up "heads." So what are the odds of getting 2 heads in a row? .5 x .5, or .25 -- which is 1 in 4. Three heads in a row would be .125, or 1 in 8.

Most every blogger, and even local and national baseball writers, are pointing to three separate things that, we all believe, will be very determinative of the success or failure of the Twins in 2012. In no particular order, those things are: Joe Mauer having a healthy and productive 2012; Justin Morneau demonstrating that he is fully recovered from his concussions and other issues and returning to the power threat that he once was; and Francisco Liriano re-establishing his dominance. There are other very important issues facing the Twins, like Denard Span's health, or whether Danny Valencia will be more like he was in 2010 than he was in 2011, but many people have isolated these three particular players because of their relative importance to the team.

I believe that, if these 3 things do, in fact, occur, the Twins could be a good team. They might not really compete with Detroit for the AL Central, but then again, Detroit is only a Justin Verlander or Prince Fielder injury away from being a significantly less dominant team than once thought (I'm not wishing injury on either of these players; my point is only that, as Twins fans, we certainly know how one or two injuries to star players can derail a team). But I do think that, with all the other Twins' weaknesses, these 3 things all need to coincide in the same year in order for this team to make it past the trade deadline in contention for the playoffs. So what are the odds of this taking place in 2012? Let's figure it out.

Without any insider knowledge, I'm just going to rely hunches and (hopefully) common sense to arrive at percentages for each player. For Mauer, I believe that there is an 80% chance he returns to his form in 2010, when he was very good. There is little or no chance of seeing a repeat of 2009, but that was a once-in-a-lifetime season, anyway. All fans, of course, would prefer a repeat of 2010 over 2011. I think Joe is going into the season completely healthy, and I believe there's a great chance that he has a solid year, putting together a .330 average and reaching base above a .400 clip.

Justin Morneau, on the other hand, has me understandably more skeptical. I think there's a 30% chance that he returns to his "old" form -- as in his form the first half of the season in 2010 when he was arguably on pace for another MVP award. This percentage is definitely just conjecture: he hasn't even participated in drills or games, so we have no idea whether he'll even be ready to start the season. In fact, 30% might be quite generous.

Francisco Liriano is so frustrating. Last season, we were hoping he could match, or improve upon, his 2010 stats, and he ended up being one of the worst pitchers in baseball; but he also threw a no-hitter and occasionally showed flashes of brilliance. I think there is a 40% chance that Liriano goes back to his 2010 form: he pitched in winter ball (though he did not do well), so it seems likely that he will come to camp in better shape than he did in 2011; additionally, he's only a season away from free agency, so he's pitching for a contract, whether it's with the Twins or another team.

So those are my guesses: 80% for Mauer; 30% for Morneau; 40% for Liriano. Multiplying those percentages together, you end up with 9.6%. Otherwise stated, based on my guesses, there is roughly a 10% chance of these three players reverting to 2010 form -- or post-concussion form in the case of Morneau. Not very good odds. Again, these are only three players out of the 25 that will be with the Twins this season, and, as always, there will be surprises, both good and bad, from other guys, some of whom we may not even know much about now. But I don't think it's an understatement to suggest that, especially in 2012, the Twins need good seasons from these three players in order to have any shot at having a year where they are not out of contention at the trade deadline.

Out of curiosity, I wonder how far off my figure of 9.6% will be from the preseason odds of the Twins winning the AL Central.

Now, onto a few links that I enjoyed reading this past week:

Seth Stohs at Sethspeaks.net had an excellent post discussing present and potential future aces in baseball.

If I didn't know better, I would think that JC over at Knuckleballsblog wasn't a big fan of Bud Selig. I can't tell you how furious I would be to not be able to watch basically any regional baseball teams based on licensing and broadcast blackouts, so I definitely have sympathy for JC. Although the native Minnesotan in me thinks that might just be another reason not to live in Iowa. Just sayin' . . . .

The Twins released their promotional schedule for 2012, and there are no bobblehead days. I've never been a bobblehead collector, but I do think they are kind of cool. I did get a Danny Valencia AA Rock Cats bobblehead this past season, though, so maybe I'm coming around. NoDak Twins Fan eulogized the demise of the bobblehead promotion in a creative and well-written post.

Topper Anton at Curve for a Strike contemplated Love and Baseball in a Valentine's Day post. Very well done!

Happy weekend, everyone!

Tinkering with Target Field

2012-02-16T09:07:00.000-05:00

I've only been to Target Field twice -- once in 2010 and once last season. Long story short, I loved just about everything about the stadium. As one who grew up watching games in the Metrodome when players like Marty Cordova and Pat Mears played to crowds of 8,000, an outdoor, baseball-only stadium was a long time coming.

It's exciting to think that the Twins could host the 2014 All-Star Game. The last time the mid-summer classic was in Minnesota was way back in 1985. Dave Parker won the Home Run Derby, hitting 6. Total. Our own Tom Brunansky tied for second with 4. The derby was structured a little different back then -- each batter played 2 "innings," and each inning was comprised of 5 outs. So that's part of the reason why the HR totals were lower. In any event, it's exciting to think about Minnesota hosting this great event. Target Field exudes class, and we, as Twins fans and (some of us) Minnesotans should be proud to be on the short list for hosting this event.

If the Twins are selected to host the All-Star Game, Target Field will be all over ESPN and Fox the week of the event. As it's a relatively new stadium, I'm sure ESPN will have their crews behind the scenes talking about the limestone, the fire pit in the left field upper deck, and the Metropolitan Club outdoor deck, which is actually a pretty fun place to catch part of a game. The field will look great, with the red, white and blue banners and American flags, and hopefully plenty of visible TC logos. There is one minor change, though, that I'd like to propose:

99 percent of my Twins viewing occurs at home, usually on my computer. I subscribe to MLB.tv, and can watch the Minnesota feed of almost every home and away game. In the 100 or so games at Target Field that I have watched on my computer, the only -- and I mean only -- aesthetically unappealing aspect of watching the television coverage is the apparel worn by the vendors. Here's a picture.

As you can see, it's fluorescent green, or neon green. Whatever you want to call it, I don't like it. I notice it less when I'm at the stadium, but in my opinion it sticks out like a sore thumb when watching a game on TV. I understand there are at least two reasons for the bright shirts: first, it allows supervisors to easily see what employees are doing, where they are working, and whether certain areas of the stadium need more or less coverage; second, it helps fans easily find vendors. Those are both legitimate business reasons, and are tough to argue with. But is there perhaps any other color that isn't so repugnant, but would still allow for management and fans to easily locate vendors?

The vendors seem to spend most of their time working the stairways between sections of the stadium. As a fan attending a game, I have never, ever had a problem trying to identify a vendor from, say, a fan: the vendors are the people that have the gigantic cartons of food or drinks, and the good ones creatively announce their presence and bark their product. And when there is a vendor present, I have rarely had a problem ordering a beer or hot dog. Somehow, even in the days before the neon outfits, this was never really a problem for me.

Target Field is pretty close to perfect. There is little to be done if the Twins are selected to host the All-Star Game. In my mind, though, when I think about Joe Mauer taking the field for the AL in 2014, or Prince Fielder participating in the Home Run Derby before a television audience of millions, the last thing I want to see on my television screen are several dozen neon green shirts in the background of arguably the classiest stadium in baseball.

How Are "True Aces" Acquired?

2012-02-15T09:37:00.001-05:00

Seth Stohs over at Sethspeaks.net had a great column yesterday discussing "ace" pitchers and the Twins' perceived lack thereof. As always, the analysis was great, and the reader comments were interesting. In that piece, Seth listed 12 pitchers that he believed arguably qualified as "true aces," and here's that list: Justin Verlander; Clayton Kershaw; Tim Lincecum; CC Sabathia; Felix Hernandez; Cliff Lee; Roy Halladay; Jered Weaver; Dan Haren; Yovani Gallardo; Matt Cain; Chris Carpenter. Regardless of whether you agree with the assessment of these particular pitchers as aces, I think most would agree that this constitutes a solid list of most of the dominant pitchers in baseball right now. I'd personally be happy with any of them popping up in the Twins' starting rotation.

I'm going to piggyback off of Seth's post because it was interesting to me to think specifically about how these true aces were acquired by their present team, and where they were drafted. So I want to take a quick look individually at these pitchers to see if there are any trends, and to see what acquiring teams have given up in order to get a true ace. I didn't include the contract values -- Seth has them over in his piece (but here's a spoiler alert -- ace pitchers are pretty expensive!!).

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers: 2nd overall pick of 2004 amateur draft; was drafted by the Tigers and is under contract with Tigers through 2015.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers: 7th overall pick of 2006 amateur draft; was drafted by the Dodgers, and will become a free agent in 2015.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants: 10th overall pick of 2006 amateur draft; was drafted by the Giants, and will become a free agent in 2014.

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees: 20th overall pick of 1998 amateur draft; was drafted by the Cleveland Indians and played with them until July, 2008, when he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers (along with Michael Brantley) for Rob Bryson (has yet to play in the major leagues), Zach Jackson and Matt LaPorta. For the record, LaPorta was the 7th pick overall in the 2007 draft; Jackson was the 32nd overall pick in the 2004 draft; Brantley was the 205th overall pick in the 2005 draft; Bryson was the 932nd pick (31st round) in the 2006 draft. Sabathia became a free agent after the 2008 season, and is signed through 2016 with the Yankees with a vesting option for 2017.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: Signed as an amateur free agent in 2002 by the Mariners, and is set to become a free agent in 2015.

Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies: 105th overall pick (4th round) of the 2000 amateur draft by the Montreal Expos. Lee has bounced around over his career. In his most recent trade before reaching free agency, Lee was traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Texas Rangers for Matthew Lawson (has yet to play in the major leagues), Blake Beaven, Josh Lueke and Justin Smoak. Lawson was a 14th round pick in 2007; Beaven was the 17th overall pick in 2007; Lueke was a 16th round pick in 2007; and Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the 2008 draft. The Mariners also sent Mark Lowe, a 5th round pick in 2004, and some cash, to the Rangers to complete the deal.

Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies: 17th overall pick of 1995 amateur draft. In December, 2009, Halladay was traded with cash to the Phillies for Travis d'Arnaud (has yet to play in majors), Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor. Drabek was the 18th overall pick in the 2006 draft; Taylor was the 173rd pick (5th round) of the 2007 draft; d'Arnaud was the 37th overall pick (1st round) in the 2007 draft.

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 12th overall pick of the 2004 amateur draft; under contract with the Angels through 2016.

Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 72nd overall pick (2nd round) of 2001 amateur draft. In July, 2010, Haren was traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Angels for a player to be named later, Patrick Corbin (has yet to play in majors), Rafael Rodriguez and Joe Saunders. Corbin was a 2nd round pick in 2009; Rodriguez signed as an amateur free agent in 2001; Saunders was the 12th overall pick of the 2002 amateur draft. The Angels sent Tyler Skaggs (has yet to play in majors), the 40th overall pick of the 2009 amateur draft, to the Diamondbacks, to complete the deal.

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers: 46th overall pick (2nd round) of 2004 amateur draft; under contract with Brewers through 2014 with a team option for 2015.

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants: 25th overall pick of 2002 amateur draft; under contract with the Giants through 2012.

Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals: 15th overall pick of 1993 amateur draft by the Toronto Blue Jays; released by the Blue Jays in October, 2002, and signed as a free agent by the Cardinals later that year. Under contract with Cardinals through 2013.

Just looking at this list, one thing becomes clear immediately: most of this talent was recognized by scouts, as 8 of the 11 players on this list that participated in the amateur draft were drafted in the first round; only Gallardo, Haren and Lee went after the first round; and King Felix was signed as an amateur free agent.

What about the players that teams have given up in order to acquire an ace? Not surprisingly, teams are giving up first round picks -- in some cases multiple first round picks -- to get an ace. Look at the Rangers' deal to get Cliff Lee: they gave up the 17th and 11th overall picks in the 2007 and 2008 draft to get Lee for half a season. Sure, Smoak hasn't exactly panned out yet, but many thought he would be a star.

One other pitcher that projects as a future ace -- or at least the Yankees think so -- is Michael Pineda. This 23 year-old, hard throwing righty was just traded from the Mariners to the Yankees, and the key piece of the exchange was Jesus Montero, undoubtedly the Yankees' top prospect. Pineda looked great the first half of 2011, but struggled in the second half. He ended up 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA in 171 innings. Though he projects as a future star, nothing is guaranteed. Montero looked good in a September call-up, posting a .328/.406/.590 line in 69 plate appearances. He projects to be a great hitter, and the Yankees gave him up (along with pitcher Hector Noesi), in exchange for Pineda and minor leaguer Jose Campos. Though Pineda doesn't yet belong on the list of ace pitchers, this move further demonstrates the hot commodity that is an ace -- or a potential ace.

So, Twins fans, would you give up one or more of Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, to get a "true ace?" How about our last couple 1st round picks, Levi Michael and Alex Wimmers? Would you give them up -- and everything that they might pan out to be -- for a "true ace" that could anchor the rotation for several years, but that would also command a $20 million salary? Because that, in the absence of good drafting, seems to be the going rate.

As always, I'm curious for your thoughts.

Starting Pitching & Friday Links

2012-02-10T08:20:00.000-05:00

I haven't had a lot to say this week. There's been no major Twins news, so I'm realizing that, with the exception of a few minor things here or there, the current roster is what we're taking to Spring Training, and what we'll open the season with. I'm comfortable -- or about as comfortable as you can be, given last year -- with the offense. Sure, it probably won't be as good as it was in 2010, but it could have a lot more speed. I'm uncomfortable -- or about as uncomfortable as you can be, given last year -- with the starting pitching.

By all accounts, Roy Oswalt is still available. I don't know what it would take to get him in a Twins uniform this year, but I sure hope that Terry Ryan is at the very least working the phones. Mlbtraderumors.com last reported that there was little progress in an Oswalt-Red Sox deal, but that the Cardinals and Rangers were also in the mix. Sounds like Oswalt wants to play for a contender. Oswalt alone won't make the Twins the AL Central champs in 2012, but, if healthy, he probably will add a few more wins over what we can expect from Jason Marquis or Nick Blackburn. I know he's not the same pitcher he was back in the mid-2000s, but I'd take a chance on him, and whatever he wants to be paid, in order to make this team better immediately. Starting pitching -- an obvious weakness in 2011 that fans hoped would be addressed -- simply has not improved. In fact, it may have gotten worse with Marquis, but only time will tell. Out of all the players that are available, and that would make a big difference for the Twins in 20120, Roy Oswalt is worth Terry Ryan making the "3 block walk" for financial approval.

Now, onto a few links. As I mentioned, this was a quiet week for me. Luckily, other great writers had much to say on the Twins and baseball in general. Here are a few of my favorites:

NoDak Twins Fan compares the timelines of Justin Morneau's and Sidney Crosby's concussions.

The Tenth Inning Stretch has done a great job tracking Roy Oswalt's job prospects.

Wally Fish, over at Seedlings to Stars, published his 2012 Twins Prospect List. It's a great list with excellent analysis!

If you haven't yet, make your season predictions for such things as Twins hitter and pitcher of the year, rookie of the year, and breakout/surprise offensive player of the year over at Seth Speaks.

I would love to see a Twins fan win the MLB Fan Cave contest for the 2012 season, and our own Lindsay Guentzel would do a great job. Here are more details from the Knuckleballs crew on Lindsay's Fan Cave entry, and here's the link to vote for her.

Happy Friday, and Happy Weekend!

Joe Mauer's 2012: What's a Good Outcome from the Fan's Standpoint?

2012-02-01T09:22:00.000-05:00

Much like the ominous sky pictured here at Target Field, what the future holds for Joe Mauer in 2012 is also unclear.

According to fangraphs, in 2009, when the Twins paid Joe Mauer $12.5 million, he provided $35.4 million in value. In 2011, when the Twins paid Mauer $23 million, he provided $7.9 million in value. Clearly, both the Twins, and I'm sure Mauer, want to see stats more similar to the 2009 numbers than the 2011 numbers. I think now, though, we mostly have come to terms with the likelihood that Mauer will never again replicate his historic 2009 season.

It's tough to imagine Mauer hitting almost 30 home runs while playing half his games at Target Field. Though I think he could very well bat in the .340s, or even.350 again, .365/.444/.587 seems like a stretch. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that Mauer's best days are behind him and that he's a washed-up athlete--but I do think that 2009 will stand out for decades as the best season ever for a catcher.

So what should fans be happy with in 2012? A select few wouldn't even be content if Mauer batted .400, or broke the home run record, or did both in the same season. They would cite his $23 million salary and its effect on a team with a $100 million payroll, and rest on that alone. While it's clear that Mauer's contract has long-lasting financial implications for the Twins, citing the contract alone and expecting 8 MVP seasons from Mauer is an untenable viewpoint that ignores the concept of paying a player a "market rate" contract, so I'm just going to disregard it. Even if Mauer's contract goes down as a bust, I'd take one bad market rate contract over what had been the Twins' historical trend -- losing every single Twins player to free agency.

I think we can isolate a few things that should give Mauer a lot of value this year. The first, of course, is health. If he can catch over 100 games, and DH/1B/RF for another 35-40, that's a good sign. In fact, if he plays 140 games, there's a pretty good chance he stayed healthy (enough) the entire year. And when Mauer's healthy, he rarely has major batting slumps. The second, as I just alluded to, is that Mauer is catching. I'm not one who believes that all of his value is tied up in catching: I think fans need to realize that Mauer catching 100 games and being half-injured all season isn't really a great "value" to the Twins, and probably on paper doesn't provides less benefit than if they just threw him in right field for the whole season, and let him be simply average there and hit for little power. But still, his best position is catcher, and that's his bread and butter for now--at least from the standpoint of racking up value and Wins Above Replacement. The third thing is also related to defense. I'd love to see Mauer throw out a higher percentage of base-stealers. In 2005, he threw out 43%; in 2007, 53%. The last three seasons, however, have been 26%, 26% and 30%. Imagine, over the course of a season, the impact that an increase in Mauer's caught-stealing percentage could have on team defense as a whole. His fielding percentage at catcher last year, .987, was also the lowest of his career. Knowing what we know now, it's obvious that he was rarely healthy at any point in 2011. So I'm going to give him a pass on his defense for last year, but hope that he returns to form this season.

Funny enough, if Mauer is healthy enough to stay at catcher all season, I am completely confident that his batting will be fine. Sure, the home run total probably won't be high, but that doesn't mean the guy can't hit a bunch of doubles. He hit 43 doubles in 2010, along with 9 HR. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mauer hit 50 doubles in 2012 if he can stay in the lineup.

Here's my ideal projection for Joe Mauer in 2012 -- how I think he could "earn" his salary, if you will, while still recognizing that, for whatever reason, he's never going to be the home run hitter he was in 2009: Play a minimum of 140 total games, at least 115 at catcher; throw out at least 35% of base stealers; bat .335 with 50 doubles, and hit over 10 HR; reach base at a clip of over .400. I expect that the RBIs, really a team statistic, will come, as well, if Ben Revere in the 9-hole, Denard Span, and Jamey Carroll, can be good on-base guys.

Sure, those likely aren't MVP numbers, but it's a pretty good formula for success. And last time I checked, there's a short list of catchers that can bat over .300. Projections always are humorous if you look at them after the season has taken place, so we'll see what actually happens in 2012. But if the Twins want to have any chance of even playing above .500, this is where it all starts. What do you think? What does Mauer have to do to earn his salary on the field this season?

The Minnesota Twins and Autographs

2012-01-30T09:34:00.001-05:00

I have to admit, being "afar" from the Twins wasn't the best thing this past weekend. I enjoyed reading all the posts re-capping Twinsfest, and also the Star Tribune coverage of some of the new players that made the trek for our fan fest. But I was a little jealous. Yes, other organizations have similar fan fests, but the Twins do it the right way. Going back a couple decades to when I was a kid, even the great Kirby Puckett would always make an appearance to sign autographs. No Twin was immune from the requirements that: 1) they travel from wherever great location they live to the cold, Minnesota tundra during one of the coldest times of year; and 2) that they converse with fans and play the role of "hero" for a weekend. It's a great tradition. And the money goes to charity. It's hard to complain.

I remember attending Twinsfest after the 1987 World Series. I would have been 6, I guess. I still have a Twins hat that Tony Olivia signed from that year. That next summer, Dan Gladden signed my baseball glove and a 1987 Topps card at an youth baseball clinic at the Maplewood YMCA. My dad also surprised me by mailing a 1987 Homer Hanky to Frank Viola (who was my baseball hero back then), who promptly signed it and sent back for me. It's still in a frame in my parents' house. Long story short, the Twins make it pretty easy for fans -- especially kids -- to get autographs and mingle with players.

Minnesota's sports hero signs for fans on the road

As an adult, I wouldn't say that I'm an autograph hound by any means. I don't really have a great place in my house to display sports memorabilia (no room for a man cave yet), so there's not much of a point in collecting stuff that will just have to go in storage. When possible, though, I have tried to take advantage of a couple opportunities for autographs. Back in 2009, my wife was able to get Joe Mauer to sign the back of my #7 baby blue throwback jersey when we were in Baltimore. I have a case for the jersey, so it just has to be ironed and put in there. I also have a goal of getting signed MLB baseballs from the "retired number" crew. So far, I have Puckett, Killebrew and Hrbek. So there's a little work to be done there.

Eventually, I imagine putting some of this stuff in a boy's room, or even a girl's room; she's probably predestined to be just as much a Twins fan as a boy would be, anyway. My goal for this April, when we will go to the final 2 games of the first series of the year at Camden Yards, is to get Justin Morneau to sign a Metrodome banner that I purchased from the Twins Pro Shop a couple years ago. I'm sure you can picture these -- they hung either outside the Dome on flag poles, or inside the concourses at the Dome. It's about 6 feet tall, has a full-body likeness of him swinging a bat on one side, and the Twins and Star Tribune logos on the other. I've been toting this thing every year to Camden Yards, but he has yet to play when I'm there. Maybe this year will be different.

I would never personally sell any autograph. I even have a Jose Mijares autographed regulation MLB baseball. Sadly, the ball might be worth more without Mijares' autograph. But it -- like my other autographed items -- is tied to a good memory, namely, a hot summer afternoon in Baltimore, when at least a dozen or so Twins players were nice enough to step out of the clubhouse into the 110 degree Inner Harbor heat and mingle with Twins fans for a few minutes, even though the weather was so awful that batting practice had been cancelled. Every little piece of memorabilia I own has a nice story behind it. The Twins may not win 95 games this year, but they are very, very good in the community.

Sabermetrics and the Plain Meaning Rule

2012-01-27T08:50:00.001-05:00

I'm an attorney by trade, and I spend a lot of time reading and analyzing state statutes and judicial decisions. This post is a legal-baseball hybrid. Caveat Emptor. Many jurisdictions in the United States have enacted the so-called "plain meaning rule." It's a rule of judicial interpretation intended to guide courts as they review state statutes in their analyses of cases. Particular rules differ from state to state, but a typical plain meaning rule might go something like this: "In the construction of statutes, words and phrases shall be construed according to the commonly approved usage of the language. Technical words and phrases shall be construed, understood and defined accordingly."

The overarching goal is to prevent courts from interpreting statutes in a bizarre fashion, and to ensure that laws are read and applied word-for-word. In theory, it sounds great. In application, it sometimes proves difficult. Contrary to what one may expect, legislative language is not always clear, and statutes sometimes may be susceptible to multiple, reasonable interpretations. Nonetheless, the plain meaning rule serves as a general guide to courts and individual judges as they attempt to uniformly apply laws to unique cases and sets of facts.

The plain meaning rule is applicable in the baseball context, as well. For the record, I think that some advanced stats are very useful. Wins Above Replacement is fantastic for comparing one player to another. And although I don't have a great understanding of Ultimate Zone Rating, I believe that anything that can help us to better understand and compare defensive stats is noteworthy. After all, a shortstop with no range who commits 7 errors over the course of the season is not necessarily better than a shortstop with fantastic range who commits 20 errors. Sabermetric stats have helped baseball fans, and front offices, to better understand the minutiae of the game.

But for my money, I think that batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage are still pretty great stats. The percentage of time that a player is on base has a substantial correlation with runs scored, which is how games are won. And sure, RBIs are largely a team statistic, but it's certainly hard to ignore a player that drives in 130 runs in a season, regardless of who bats in front of him. ERA still is a good, although imperfect, measure of a pitcher's effectiveness, as can be the average number of innings pitched per start. There's no heavy analysis needed for these stats: the players that hit more often and get on base more often, and the pitchers that allow fewer runs per innings and last longer into games. are generally more effective, and better players. Sure, we can -- and often should -- get more specific. But the "plain meaning" of these basic baseball stats is often enough for this fan.

Joe Mauer's 2009 season is a great example of why sabermetrics aren't always necessary. As a friend said to me yesterday when we were talking about Mauer, to over-staticize his 2009 season almost detracts from how great it was, and how great it looked in person (and on television). I think it's sufficient to cite the .365/.444/.587 slash line (1.031 OPS), 28 HR and 98 RBIs over 137 games primarily as a catcher, as well as the .996 fielding percentage and 26% caught stealing rate (though that, in itself, is somewhat dependent on the particular pitcher --- Carl Pavano I'm glaring at you). What more do we need to know about how great that season was? Using those stats only, we can accurately compare Mauer's 2009 season to the other historic seasons for MLB catchers. I don't need to know how much better Mauer played than a replacement level player, or even how much value the Twins got for the $12.5 million they paid him. And in any event, I think we saw the definition of "replacement" value in 2011 watching Drew Butera, Rene Rivera and Steve Holm, and then comparing that product -- with our eyes only -- to what Mauer brings to the table, even on a not-so-great day.

This post isn't intended to be an indictment on sabermetrics. To the contrary, advanced stats have their place, especially in front offices when teams need to compare similar players as they decide to whom, and under what provisions, to make a contract offer that could either be great for the team, or be an albatross for years to come. And I have no beef at all with fans and other bloggers that really get into sabermetrics. In fact, I like reading most if it, and have learned a lot along the way. I do, however, think that it's important to not forget to see the forest as we delve into the trees. A .300 batting average and .400 on-base percentage generally make for a pretty good player. Give me a team with 5 or 6 .300-hitters, and I'll show you a team that might have a chance in October. Give me a pitching rotation with a staff ERA under 4.00 and I'll show you a team that could dominate in the postseason. Sabermetrics can definitely advance the analysis of the game, but in some cases plain meaning is enough.

Draft Status of Potential 2013 Hall of Famers, and what this Means for the Twins in the 2012 Draft

2012-01-26T09:06:00.000-05:00

The 2013 Hall of Fame vote is sure to be interesting. There are some very deserving players coming up for the first time, returning veterans like Jack Morris hoping to get elected before their 15 years runs out, and there are also many players that are suspected of using PEDs or steroids during their career. I've enjoyed reading NoDak Twins Fan's series on the minor leagues this week, and I'm also midway through Seth Stohs' wonderful Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. It's a great read that I highly recommend, and I've already learned a lot about who the Twins have coming up through the system. Thinking about minor leaguers and the draft, and also about the fascinating 2013 Hall of Fame debate that's sure to heat up, got me wondering about where these HOF-eligible players were taken in the MLB draft. Are we going to see any kind of trend with respect to early round choices, or did some of these players fly under teams' radars? Here's a list of some of the players that are likely (at least on paper) to get votes next year. The links will take you to the Baseball-Reference.com list of players selected in that particular round.

Jack Morris: 5th round of 1976 draft; 98th overall.

Jeff Bagwell: 4th round of 1989 draft; 110th overall.

Lee Smith: 2nd round of 1975 draft; 28th overall.

Tim Raines: 5th round of 1977 draft; 106th overall.

Alan Trammell: 2nd round of 1976 draft; 26th overall.

Edgar Martinez: Signed by Seattle as amateur free agent in 1982.

Fred McGriff: 9th round of 1981 draft; 233rd overall.

Larry Walker: Signed by Expos as amateur free agent in 1984.

Mark McGwire: 1st round of 1984 draft; 10th overall.

Don Mattingly: 19th round of 1979 draft; 493rd overall.

Dale Murphy: 1st round of 1974 draft; 5th overall.

Rafael Palmeiro: 1st round of 1985 draft; 22nd overall.

Bernie Williams: Signed by Yankees as amateur free agent in 1985.

Barry Bonds: 1st round of 1985 draft; 6th overall.

Roger Clemens: 1st round of 1983 draft; 19th overall.

Mike Piazza: 62nd round of 1988 draft; 1,390 overall.

Sammy Sosa: Signed by Rangers as amateur free agent in 1985.

Curt Schilling: 2nd round of 1986 draft; 39th overall.

Craig Biggio: 1st round of 1987 draft; 22nd overall.

This is a really diverse list with some fantastic players. Can we extrapolate anything from this information? Well, yes and no. It's certainly an interesting list. Of the 19 players I listed, 6 were selected in the first round of the draft -- roughly one-third. 12 out of the 15 that went through the draft were selected between the 1st and 5th rounds; 4 were signed as amateur free agents, and thus never went through the draft at all. Finally, later rounds of the draft -- the 9th, 19th, and 62nd rounds -- were represented by McGriff, Mattingly and Piazza, respectively. None of the players listed were the #1 overall draft pick; Dale Murphy was the closest at 5th overall back in 1974.

Baseball statistics and player evaluation have definitely improved from the 1970s and 1980s. I'm curious, as the next few years pass, if we will see that HOF-type players were more often taken in the very early rounds of the draft than they were in previous eras -- in other words, if scouts and teams are better or more accurately able to recognize major league level talent now than they were a decade or two ago? The truth is that the draft is never going to be anything close to a science: player injuries, personality issues and unforeseen player talent ceilings have dramatic and long-lasting effects on a career, and no amount of stats or research can meaningfully predict such things.

So what does this mean for the Twins in 2012? As a result of a horrible 2011 season, and the departure of free agents that were offered arbitration, the Twins have the 2nd overall pick; the 32nd pick; the 42nd pick; the 64th pick; and the 73rd pick. 5 picks in the first 75 slots is pretty good. Are the Twins likely to draft a future Hall of Famer? No. I'd say that no team is likely to draft a Hall of Famer. Although I expect they will have good MLB careers, even recent #1 picks Bryce Harper and Steven Strasburg are far from sure things. But a player's draft status doesn't necessarily shape his destiny: just ask Mike Piazza, who was drafted in the very last round by the Dodgers, as one of the very last picks, as a favor to Piazza's father. Tommy Lasorda was friendly with Piazza's family, and actually is Mike's godfather. Future stars, therefore, can be drafted anywhere. Still, though, I'd rather bank on a solid player coming in the 2nd overall slot than in the 1,390th slot. The Twins have a rare opportunity to fill some holes in the minor leagues with top draft picks, and hopefully will select a few players that can move through the system quickly, and will make a difference at Target Field sooner, rather than later.

Do the Twins Place Too Much Emphasis on Player Personality?

2012-01-24T08:30:00.000-05:00

One of the great things about the Twins' organization is that, if you are a fan and live within driving distance of the Twin Cities, you have many options throughout the year to meet the players. When I was in high school in 1997, Kirby Puckett and Al Newman came as part of the Twins' Caravan. I also remember seeing Chuck Knoblauch at the Twins' Pro Shop in Roseville during what would be his Rookie of the Year season in 1991. Back then, he was a nice, humble guy. In fact, I remember that the people in front of us had a newborn baby, and Knoblauch asked to hold the baby. How times changed for Knobbie. More recently, my wife and I attended the 2011 Justin Morneau Casino Night, which was a fundraiser for juvenile arthritis. Unlike the Pro Shop appearances, this event was not free, but, when all was said and done, it wasn't a whole lot more expensive than good tickets to a game at Target Field, parking, a few beers and some food. And, considering the Twins' 2011 on-the-field product, I probably fared better seeing that crew off-the-field. It seems like almost every player has their own charity stuff going on. There are plenty of opportunities for Twins' fans -- and they are mostly affordable opportunities -- to at least shake Denard Span's hand, or get a Joe Benson autograph on a Saturday morning in Roseville. It's a hallmark of the Twins' organization. And I can tell you firsthand from living in the New York and Boston media markets, that similar opportunities at similar price points are rare for Yankees and Red Sox fans. Good luck meeting David Ortiz, A-Rod or Derek Jeter, unless you are willing to fork over a lot of money.

When I attended last week's New Britain Rock Cats Hot Stove Luncheon, a comment made by Rock Cats' President & CEO Bill Dowling sort of surprised me. Dowling mentioned that when Terry Ryan or Bill Smith telephoned Dowling about players the Twins were thinking of calling up, one of the first questions was always, "what is the player like in the community?" In other words, as Dowling later elaborated, the front office was concerned with whether the player was active with the fans, was easy to deal with, and if he caused any trouble off the field. These are certainly valid inquiries, and it's something that many fans probably like to hear. But it got me thinking.

As long as I have been following the Twins, they have come across as a family-friendly organization. Almost as a rule, the players are always polite, and it's unusual to hear of a Twins player being arrested, or even suspected of illegal conduct. Clearly, along with the requisite baseball skills, the Twins' front office does have a concern that prospects will continue to represent the Twins in a positive light, and will not bring negative publicity to the team. Those are both laudable goals, and I can also understand that negative press would be bad for the bottom line.

But I wonder, over the years, which players the Twins have passed on (mostly via trade, I suppose), citing probable personality issues. Is it possible that, for example, in 2008, the organization could have made a trade for a jerk of a player that would have made the team just one game better, thus avoiding a Game 163 loss? Is it possible that the Twins have passed on a good draft pick because of personality issues? It's tough to imagine that, if it came down to it, the organization would be worried more about clubhouse culture and family friendliness than it would with the bottom line of putting a winning team on the field, but it's at least interesting.

The team is very quick to deal away perceived bad apples, such as Kyle Lohse and Kevin Slowey. Are they equally as quick to avoid dealing for players that are rough around the edges? For my money, anyway, I'd rather have a couple jerks on the team that can hit .300 and play good defense, than I would a team very nice young men who play "Twins style baseball," but can't turn on a major league fastball. Clubhouse culture is certainly important, and there's no denying that. But the Twins take a big risk by perhaps over-relying on a player's personality when it comes to drafting, calling up, and trading players. What do you think? Do the Twins over-emphasize being "nice guys," or can they in fact have it both ways?

New Britain Rock Cats 2012 Hot Stove Luncheon & Bill Smith

2012-01-20T08:30:00.000-05:00

As I have mentioned before, living in Connecticut puts me just about 20 minutes or so from the home of the Twins' AA affiliate, the New Britain Rock Cats. One of my New Year's resolutions for this blog for 2012 was to provide more Rock Cats content. It makes sense, right? I'm no expert on the Twins' minor leaguers, but I do attend enough games to at least have some name recognition. I can only see the real Twins once or twice a year, so why not see tomorrow's stars today?

Yesterday I attended the Rock Cats' Hot Stove Luncheon, which was held at a hotel ballroom in central Connecticut. Apart from Rock Cat personnel, I would guess that there were probably around 300 people that attended. Many fans, and also some sponsors and members of the local New Britain community, comprised the crowd. I was most interested because former Twins' GM Bill Smith was the keynote speaker.

I wanted to provide you, my readers, with some quotes from Bill Smith regarding both the 2012 Rock Cats and Twins, as well as a couple interesting things that I picked up on. First off, Bill Smith was exactly the opposite of the gruff, sweaty, "no comment" personality that I had seen during some of his interviews when he was GM. He was affable, funny and extremely self-deprecating (he opened with a line to the effect of, when the team loses 99 games, someone has to be accountable -- and that person unfortunately was me). He mentioned that he never had any intention of leaving the Twins organization, and that he was happy in his new role, where he will actually be spending more time on player development. Now, onto the quotes:

On Miguel Sano: Has the "potential to be a Miguel Cabrera type player."

Joe Mauer: "100% healthy and intends to catch more than 120 games this season." He will also see time at first base and occasionally right field.

Justin Morneau: "We're confident he's going to be ready to go." Smith emphasized how detrimental concussions were, how teams are still learning more about them, and included Sidney Crosby as an example of how long-lasting and serious they can be.

Smith emphasised the Twins usage of the disabled list in 2011. I read it on another blog before, but the Twins lost 866 days to the disabled list. According to Smith, that translated into $28.8 million of salary. Pretty ridiculous.

On the Twins' performance last season: "Poor performance and lack of fundamental play" were the most frustrating aspects. This ties into later comments he made concerning player development at the AA level.

On AA call-ups Chris Parmelee and Joe Benson: They will get an opportunity to compete for a spot on the Twins opening day roster. Interestingly, Smith included Ben Revere with these two other players. Between what Terry Ryan has recently said about utilizing Trevor Pouffe in the outfield this season, and Smith's comments likening Revere to Parmelee and Benson, I'm starting to think that Revere may not be as likely to be starting in left field as I previously had thought, or, if he does, it may be in a platoon situation.

Rock Cats' manager Jeff Smith also spoke. He was a career minor leaguer, having played several seasons in New Britain. He said that his goal, aside from winning games, "is to have every player improve from game 1 to game 142." He suspected that, at some point in 2012, Rock Cats fans will see Aaron Hicks, and that Chris Herrmann and Logan Darnell would both be returning.

Jeff Smith's focus on player development was interesting for another reason. Bill Smith repeatedly said that, in the past several years, the Twins' best players all have come through New Britain (that makes sense, of course, as a matter of player progression). During his remarks, Bill Smith mentioned the instructional league, Class A Beloit, and AA Rock Cats as examples of organizations that prided themselves in player development. Not once during the 3 hour event was a single mention made of AAA Rochester. I'm reading between the lines a little here, but it makes some sense when you think about all the trouble the Twins have had with Rochester, and the fact that some of the guys coming up from AAA have not been fundamentally sound, or didn't seemed overly concerned with winning games. Bill Smith stated that call-ups from New Britain were prepared to play major league baseball. I think the negative implication from that statement, and the fact that Rochester was the only team never mentioned during the event, is that members of the organization do not believe that AAA is doing a good enough job developing players -- hence the house cleaning and promotion of Bruno to hitting coach.

In the end, this was a great event to attend. It was repeatedly emphasized that the Rock Cats and the Twins are both like families (for better or worse, I guess). And the event certainly had a family vibe to it. I'm still glad that Bill Smith got the axe as GM, but it's probably also fair to note that all the negative moves that fans criticized weren't done in a vacuum; Terry Ryan and the other staffers certainly had input. Hopefully he has more success in his new role.

Ben Revere's 2012: Growth or Repetition?

2012-01-17T09:03:00.000-05:00

If you read Twins Fan From Afar, even from time to time, it's probably no secret to you that I like Ben Revere. I've written about him a few times. Back in September, I wrote some "final thoughts" on Revere. Among other things, I opined that, the weak arm notwithstanding, I thought Revere had a better ceiling than being a fourth outfielder. I promised in that post to leave Revere alone for a few months. Now that it's 2012, I think it's appropriate to talk a little bit more about this speedy, but flawed player. From the way the Twins roster is shaping up, and unless there is a further trade, it appears that Revere will be starting in left field for the Twins in 2012. So it looks like he'll get that chance in 2012 to prove whether he can be a viable, longterm starting MLB outfielder.

A week ago, John Bonnes at Twins Geek had a fantastic write-up comparing the Twins' 2011 left fielder, Delmon Young, to Ben Revere, both offensively and defensively. If you by chance haven't read it, I highly recommend it. Advanced stats are a wonderful thing, and they enable us to compare Revere and Young, two players that couldn't be more dissimilar. Young has (or should have) power, and seemed awful patrolling left field; Revere, conversely, has speed and great range, but of course lacks a major league arm, and has not yet showed the plate discipline that he demostrated at the minor league levels. The short version of Bonnes' post is that, using the basic Sabermetric stats Runs Created, which estimates the number of runs a player contributes to his team offensively, and Ultimate Zone Rating, a defensive stat that measures runs in comparison to an average defender, Revere is "worth" 70 total runs, and Young is worth 65 for their 2011 seasons. In other words, Revere slightly out-edged Young. Not surprisingly, what Revere lacked in offense, he made up for on defense.

For 2012, I expect Revere's defense to be stellar in left field. Especially with a healthy Denard Span, it's tough to imagine many balls falling in front of, or behind, our left side of the outfield. Of course, Revere's speed may be more of an asset in center field, but I suspect that, over the course of 160 games, the weak arm might also be more of a liability in center field.

Still, though, I can see it now: There will be a game, maybe even 2 or 3, where the opposing team wins on a sacrifice fly to medium-deep left field -- a ball the depth of which many major league outfielders could comfortably throw home and, at the very least, make the play close. Revere, with the weak arm, will be unable to get the ball in, and the Twins will lose. It's bound to happen. The fan reaction, I imagine, will be decidedly against Revere. Star Tribune readers will suggest that they, themselves, could have made the throw. And maybe a couple would be correct. But that's the thing with Revere -- you take the good with the bad. Over the course of the season, will he make enough great catches and reach enough gap shots to cover for the disappointing arm? I'm willing to bet yes.

Revere's other great asset is speed on the basepaths. Batting in the #9 position, if Revere can bat around .275, which seems like a reasonable projection, and can walk at a greater rate than he did in 2011, he will be one of the best #9 hitters in the game. Revere stole 34 bases, and was caught 9 times, in 117 games last year, and was quoted as saying that he wants to steal 80 or 90 bases this upcoming season. It's a lofty goal, but, had he played the full season as a starter with the Twins last year, there's little doubt he would have stolen around 50 bases. For what he lacks in power, he can make up for with speed. It's worth noting, though, that Revere did have knee surgery at the end of September. Hopefully there was plenty of time for rehab, and there will be no lasting effects with respect to his great speed. For my money, there's little difference between a player -- especially a #9 hitter -- getting a walk or single, and then stealing second, than there is if that same player simply hit a double. Sure, it's different because stealing is no guarantee, and having a runner in motion affects the next batter, but the principle is the same: a runner in scoring position.

I'm guessing that Revere will likely continue to be a divisive player. No one will complain about the range and amazing catches, but it's fair to question the arm and (to date) the relative lack of plate discipline. But let's also not forget that Revere is just 23 years old. He's only faced some pitchers once or twice, and we all know that there's a big learning curve at the major league level. If, at the end of 2012, Revere's batting stats haven't improved at all, I'm willing to concede that he's not the prospect I think he is. For now, though, I'm willing to bet that, over the course of the season, we will begin to see a stat line that more closely resembles his batting stats from the minors. At the very least, I'm willing to give him a chance to prove the naysayers wrong.

2012 Twins Worst Possible Outcome: 81-81?

2012-01-13T12:03:00.000-05:00

As I was driving to work this morning, I got to thinking about how the Twins likely would fare this year, now that most of the roster appears generally set. The general consensus among most bloggers, as well as myself, is that it is likely that the Twins will probably play about .500 baseball in 2012. The number of wins could increase or decrease significantly based on the health of players like Mauer and Morneau, as well as the health and consistency of the starting rotation. I think most would agree that, on paper at least, the 2012 Twins should win more games than the 2011 Twins, but probably less than the 2010 Twins. I don't think this looks like a playoff team now, not with the starting rotation, anyway.

What are the ramifications if, as I have sort of predicted, the Twins do have (roughly) a .500 season, going 81-81? I think the answer depends on your perspective. If you are simply a fan of the Twins, enjoy going to a couple games each season and watching sometimes after dinner on FSN, 81 wins is much better than 63 wins. It probably means that the team was somewhat competitive, and that certain players had very good years. Most likely, it was probably a fun team for you to watch, even if there were some cringeworthy points during the season. Personally, as a fan of the 2012 Twins -- but most importantly a fan of the organization -- I am worried about what a .500 season could do to the future of the club.

Let's imagine, first, that the Twins outperform expectations and win 90+ games. This likely means a few things have happened: our star players such as Mauer and Morneau remained mostly healthy and were valuable assets to the team; the team was in contention at the trade deadline and maybe made a few significant acquisitions (using that excess payroll money we all think they are holding onto) to put us over the hump; and, finally, that we fans can talk about playoff baseball again. Those are generally very good things, and Twins Territory is probably happy that this team exceeded its expectations. The only perceived negative I can think of is that there's still no way, unless this team is on a crazy hot streak in September, that I can imagine them beating the Yankees/Red Sox/Phillies teams in the playoffs.

Second, let's think about what another sub-80 win season would likely mean: the team wasn't really in contention during the season, even if they had a hot streak or two; our star players were either injured, or did not perform up to expectations; the "Twins' Way" of signing mostly pitch-to-contact arms has not worked for two consecutive years (actually, longer than that). These are negatives, of course. What about the positives? Well, if the team was not in contention for a second year in a row, some of the movable players (Span, Liriano, Baker?) may have been traded for what could be a good set of prospects upon which to build up the farm system, and the eventual Twins roster, for 2014 or 2015. Maybe it also means that fans can again argue about the decreased payroll?

Now, back to a .500 team. Many cities are accustomed to a team that rarely finishes above .500. The fans and the front office are used to it, and they plan accordingly. Tickets are easy to come by, and relatively cheap, but you know that you are watching a team that is not going to compete for a spot in October. You hang onto young players until you can't afford them, and probably trade many away for other young players. That's one way of doing business, and I suppose the model must work in some cities. In Minnesota, where we Twins fans are at least used to the team finishing above .500, we are now accustomed to sellouts, higher ticket prices, and a comparatively high payroll that allows the team to retain some star players. A .500 season scares me because it means that the team probably was in contention for a while and, as a result, opportunities could have been missed to trade away solid players for good prospects. Or, it might mean that the Twins bought at the deadline when they should have sold, perhaps giving up another top prospect to fill a perceived hole. Finally, if this team does win 81 games with a $100 million payroll, the front office can step in and say, "Hey, we lost 99 games last year and spent $115 million. And this year we won almost 20 more games and spent $15 million less. So for those of you that complain about decreasing payroll, it doesn't equate to winning ballgames." Long story short, 81 wins could breed more excuses and the status quo.

My point in this post isn't that I hope that the Twins have another losing season, or even that winning 81 games is necessarily all that bad. My overarching concern is that, based on the way things look now, there is a real chance that the Twins could miss significant opportunities to improve the organization for the future, instead opting to have an "OK" team that will mostly fill Target Field this summer. As one who is going to watch the games either way, I guess I would rather see another year of extremes than a $100 million, 81-win team in a weak division.

Bud Selig Makes Joe Mauer Money -- Who Knew??

2012-01-10T14:13:00.001-05:00

That's probably a very, very expensive burgundy tie that Bill Selig is wearing

I just read this report from ESPN, indicating that MLB owners are expected to offer Commissioner Bud Selig a contract extension at their annual meetings that start tomorrow. To me, the interesting thing wasn't the part about Selig being offered a contract extension. In fact, Selig is entirely uninteresting to me most of the time, and I'm ready for him to retire, but it's never a surprise if he decides to hang on for another few years.

What made my jaw drop was the statement that Selig's compensation "which includes the use of a private jet, is in excess of $22 million annually, according to a source." Sources are often inaccurate, but let's just assume for the sake of argument that Selig does earn $22 million annually, not counting the little benefit of not having to sit next to "commoners" on a plane. That's an absolute ton of money. I suppose I hadn't really given it too much thought, but had assumed that Selig made $3 or $5 million a year. I know that, for commissioners that do the job right, the duties are never-ending, ranging simply from being present at events all over the country and the world, to controlling seemingly mundane aspects of the game, such as rule changes.

If you're curious, NFL commish Roger Goodell took a pay cut to $1 this past season, but had earned $10.9 million. NHL commissioner Gary Bettman earned $7.5 million for the fiscal year ending in June, 2011, and NBA commissioner David Stern, whose salary has not been disclosed, is rumored to earn in excess of $10 million annually. So it seems like Selig outearns his NFL, NBA and NHL counterparts by at least 2-to-1. I guess that's not surprising, considering Selig's longevity. Those cost of living raises really added up!

I suppose you can analogize the commissioner of a professional sport to a CEO of an organization, if that makes you feel better. In my mind, though, I view Selig as a placeholder -- a temporary gatekeeper -- of the institution of baseball. I know he's an important executive, but I think his chief function is to ensure that play continues, and that certain aspects of the game either change, or do not change, as times evolve. But I guess it can be argued that he is just as important to the game as is any one player, so perhaps he should earn a salary equivalent to what a good player would earn.

Twins 2013 Pitching Rotation: Spots up for Grabs

2012-01-09T12:24:00.001-05:00

I wrote a post last week that advocated signing Francisco Liriano to some sort of extension now -- buying low, essentially. Most of the comments that I received expressed agreement with the general idea of buying low on Liriano, if you could ($6-8 million a year, 2-3 years, and an incentive-laden deal was probably the general consensus), but also expressed the probability that Liriano and his agent would likely prefer to bank on Liriano having a better 2012 and testing out free agent market. That post, and the comments, got me thinking about the Twins' rotation for the 2013 season. Not that I'm at all comfortable with what we have going into 2012, but it's basically settled at this point that it's going to be Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Blackburn and Marquis. You can complain about it all you want, and I'll enjoy reading the complaints and agreeing with you, but it seems very unlikely that Terry Ryan will go after another free agent starter.

If that group is really the 2012 starting rotation, the 2013 rotation could be, and probably will be, quite different. Liriano, unless extended, will become a free agent after this upcoming season. If he pitches well (say, wins 15 games and has an ERA under 4.00), there will be some team, somewhere, that is willing to overpay for a wild, inconsistent lefty that occasionally is the best pitcher in the game and has thrown a no-hitter. My guess is that, if Liriano is successful in 2012, it will be his last season in Minnesota.

The Twins hold a $9.25 million club option for righty Scott Baker for the 2013 season. Baker is another confusing case. On the one hand, he seems very close to a #2 starter, and on the other hand, he has a propensity for giving up home runs and a history of injuries that have put him on the disabled list several times. If the Twins are lucky enough to get a full season of a healthy, productive Baker, I expect that they'll probably pick up that option, especially if they believe they are unlikely to hold on to Liriano long-term. But still, it's worth noting that Baker could become a free agent after the 2012 season if the Twins fail to pick up his option, so his future as a Twin is uncertain.

There is probably more certainty with the next few guys on this list, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano and Jason Marquis. I'll get Blackburn out of the way first, because the fact is that his contract, which runs through 2013 (with an $8 million club option for 2014), is not movable. Due to relatively serious injuries, and long periods of ineffective pitching, the Twins are stuck with Blackburn for the next couple seasons. The Twins are paying Carl Pavano $8.5 million in 2012, in the last year of a 2-year contract. On opening day 2013, Pavano would be 37. It's certainly possible that the Twins would try to keep Pavano for another year if he has a decent 2012 (I imagine the Twins' press release for that contract would contain the words "innings-eater," "veteran," and "leader" on several occasions), but it's also very possible to imagine his skill-set further deteriorating this upcoming season. And then there's Jason Marquis. I have every expectation that the 1-year, $3 million contract that he signed is viewed by the front office as a stop-gap between what the Twins have now, and what they hope to have in 2013 or 2014.

In the end, my guess is that by 2013, only 2 of the current 5 starters will be wearing Twins uniforms. I can imagine the Twins trying to keep one of either Baker or Liriano (by exercising Baker's option or extending Liriano), but not both. And we know that Nick Blackburn will be doing his thing for another couple years. Aside from that, Marquis and Pavano are aging veterans, and the Twins might be able to replace their production with younger, cheaper players.

We know that top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson is out for the 2012 season following Tommy John surgery, so who knows how fast or slow his recovery will be. I'm hopeful that he will rebound quickly. But it should be noted that there was no definite indication that he was ready for promotion to the big leagues. I'm not certain what role arm problems played in his 2011 stats, but it's worth noting that he was 3-8 with a 4.81 ERA in Rochester in 18 starts. Not exactly light-out. Liam Hendriks was a September call-up to an injury-depleted Twins team, and went 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in 23 1/3 innings. It was encouraging that he struck out 16 while walking only 6. His promotion showed that he's definitely a top Twins prospect, and with another year of seasoning, it's easy to imagine him taking over a rotation spot in 2013. Still, though, I'm sure more time at AAA would benefit Hendriks and the Twins in the long-run. And then there are your Brian Duensings and Anthony Swarzaks. Will they make it as MLB starters, or be confined to lesser roles? My guess is that there will be at least one more opportunity for each.

In short, between aging veterans and players poised for free agency in the near future, your 2013 Twins pitching staff could only vaguely resemble its 2012 counterpart. I still hold out hope that, someday, the Twins might engage in a bidding war for an established pitcher that could become a #1 starter, but until that day comes, it's probably more prudent to take a look at the contracts, the options, and who we have in New Britain and Rochester waiting in the wings.

Make or Break Year: Justin Morneau

2012-01-06T09:36:00.000-05:00

It feels strange to even suggest that 2012 could be a make or break year for a 30 year old with over 1,000 major league hits, 185 HR, and 4 All-Star appearances, but I struggle to find another term to describe exactly how important this season will be to Morneau and his family, the Twins, and their fans.

We're 5 full seasons removed from Morneau's MVP year. And that was a fantastic season for him -- 34 HR, 130 RBIs, and batting .321 to lead a great Twins team to the playoffs. Yes, that was probably Morneau's best season, but we also saw a fantastic half-season in 2010, when Justin was batting .345 with 18 HR and 56 RBIs until he suffered the infamous concussion in Toronto. And it's never been remotely the same since. Even looking at Morneau in interviews, you can just see that he doesn't sound or feel the same. He's lost some confidence, I'm sure, and it shows. And how could you not lose confidence or faith after what he has gone through?

2012 will be telling, certainly. Were I making the lineups, I wouldn't even have Morneau play the field for the first half of the season, if at all possible. Between Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit and Chris Parmelee (who I think, because of the Morneau injury and Parmelee's own good audition, could earn a spot on the opening day roster), the job can be done, well enough, by others, such that Morneau could or should just focus on hitting and health up until the All-Star break.

If Morneau can't DH and maintain his health enough to play 130 or so games, the realist in me thinks that 2012 is it for him. I really want to be positive about things, but it's increasingly difficult to ignore all the interviews, and the diminishing number of games played since 2008 (163; 135; 81; 69). Morneau could reach a point, and maybe he already has, where he is risking further permanent damage to himself by continuing to play baseball. The guy has a wife and young child now, so perhaps his priorities have shifted over the past couple years.

At the same time, though, Morneau was a gamer from 2005-2008, and he has that competitive fire that most other Twins players seem to lack, so you want to give him every last chance to succeed and to regain his health. The Twins drafted Morneau, brought him up through the farm system, and slowly but surely watched him become a star. He also had become one of the best defensive first basemen in the league. It's easy to say that Mauer, Doumit or Parmelee can play first base. Sure, they can physically occupy that position and make the majority of plays that come their way, but Morneau spent years working diligently to become not just "a hitter who plays first base," but a hitter and an elite first baseman. You can't just put a warm body on the correct part of the field and expect the same results over a 162 game season.

The Twins owe Morneau $14 million both in 2012 and 2013. If Morneau can't stay off the disabled list the majority of this season, I don't even know what to do. Do you quietly try to coax him to retire after 2012? Do you try to be optimistic for 2013 if things look at promising by the end of this season? Kirby Puckett was forced into retirement because he lost vision in an eye. It was very sad when it happened, and sudden, but this almost seems worse because it is so protracted. As a fan who likes to imagine that the Twins have infinite financial resources, I say you give Morneau every last opportunity through 2013, and at that point it's time to quit. The realist in me, however, realizes that $14 million out of a $100 million payroll is significant -- it's roughly the value of a decent free agent pitcher. If it looks like Morneau can't put it together by 2013, I suggest that the Twins put Morneau in some sort of front office position, as they did with Puckett, and immediately retire #33. He's a very personable, funny guy, and I'm sure he could do well as some sort of ambassador for Twins baseball.

But for now, I hope it doesn't come down to that. Gardy can do his best to manage Morneau's playing time, and hopefully we'll see in Spring Training that his bat looks better than it did last year. This upcoming April will be my 3rd consecutive year traveling to Camden Yards for the Twins' games against the Orioles. It's telling that the first year I went to Baltimore, Morneau wasn't even in the state, and last year he didn't emerge from the training room. Let's hope that 2012 will be different.

"Crediting" Hall of Fame-Eligible Players

2012-01-05T08:55:00.001-05:00

As I've mentioned before, I love this time of year because sportswriters vote for candidates for the Baseball Hall of Fame. It's a crazy and imperfect process, and it usually angers me somewhat. I have enjoyed reading others' blog posts listing their ballots, and advocating both for and against the candidacy of suspected or "convicted" steroid users. In short, everyone has an opinion on each year's Hall of Fame candidates, and they always make for good reads.

Many of you probably know that Ted Williams gave up 3 full seasons of his professional baseball career -- 1943-1945 -- for military service. He was 24 when he left, and 27 when he resumed his career in 1946. Just for reference, in 1942, Williams got 186 hits and hit 36 home runs, and his slash line was .356/.499/.648. In 1946, Williams had another great year, accumulating 176 hits and 38 home runs, with a slash line of .342/.497/.667. He was voted MVP that year. Williams finished his career with 2,654 hits and 521 home runs. Of course, he was a first ballot hall of famer (93.38 percent), one of the greatest hitters to ever play the game, and the last player to bat .400.

It's interesting to think what his home run and hit totals would have been had he not lost those 3 prime years of his career to military service. In terms of hits, even a conservative estimate of 170 hits (lower than the average of his number of hits in 1942 and 1946), yields and extra 510 hits and pushes Williams over 3,000 for his career. Similarly, adding 35 home runs per year for those 3 missed seasons gives Williams 626. Of course, speculation like that involves a slippery slope. Who knows if Williams would have been hit in the head with a foul ball while in the on-deck circle, thus ending his baseball career? One the one hand, speculation and conjecture in favor of the player doesn't seem appropriate, but on the other hand, it seems right to at least think about it. Williams was an inner-circle hall of famer either way, but I think it's worth noting that his 3 years of military service that came during the prime of his career did impact his numbers. And after ballplayers leave us -- especially ballplayers of that generation -- that's what we look at.

What about Bert Blyleven? I, among others, have noted that he played several years of his career pitching for some not great teams. Others have noted that he played for some small market teams, and perhaps that's why he didn't make more All-Star teams or garner more national recognition during his playing days. I think there is probably some truth in those statements. But the implication of those statements is that, had Blyleven played on better teams, he would have won more games, and would have been a lock for the Hall of Fame upon his retirement. It's a dangerous road upon which to tread. Should we credit Blyleven with more wins, or at least more notoriety now, because he was a very good pitcher on some not very good teams? It doesn't seem right. But I think we should know about it.

And then there's my hero, Kirby Puckett. Forced to retire at age 35 after only 11 seasons in the major leagues, Puckett was one of the best and most consistent hitters of his time. More than that, he was a great center fielder in his prime, winning 6 Gold Gloves. He was also a 10-time All-Star. Kirby had a great final season in 1995, batting .314 with 23 HR and 99 RBIs, having made the switch to right field. His season ended somewhat prematurely when his jaw was broken by a Dennis Martinez fastball on September 28 of that year. He was 35 then, and still a very good player. After Puckett was diagnosed with glaucoma in early 1996, he retired. So that was it. A stellar 11 year career: 2,304 hits; 207 home runs; a career batting average of .318; oh yea, and those 2 World Series titles. Puckett, of course, was elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility, receiving 82.1 percent of the vote. Had Puckett simply retired because he got tired of baseball, his career was still Hall of Fame-worthy. But it's fair to acknowledge that the unfortunate circumstances of Puckett's health, and the fact that he was still playing good baseball, likely impacted the lens through which some voters viewed his candidacy. Is it fair to think that, had Kirby averaged only 140 hits through 5 more seasons of baseball (he would have continued at right field and likely ended as designated hitter), he would have become a member of the 3,000 hit club, and probably would have accumulated his 300th home run along the way? For me, it's fair to think about it and put it in writing. I'm not saying that Kirby definitely could have played until he was 40, but it's in the realm of possibility.

Rule 5 of the Baseball Writers Association of America Election Rules provides: "Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the teams(s) on which the player played." It seems, on one hand, like a voter is confined to what happened on the field, but on the other hand, the rule also mentions integrity, character and sportsmanship -- all things that don't have a statistical measure. So clearly a voter can (well, maybe the voter must -- the rule uses the word "shall") look beyond a player's stats and career accolades. But how far beyond? I don't think it's fair to put an asterisk next to Ted Williams' official stat sheet in the Hall of Fame to note that he probably would have been a member of the 600 HR club, or that Kirby Puckett, even in decline, could have reached 3,000 hits, but I do think it's fair that if a player was on the cusp in some voters' minds -- and maybe Puckett was -- to cast a vote for that player partially based on what could have, or should have, been. This will be an interesting discussion when Ken Griffey, Jr. comes up for election. Sure, he's a first ballot hall of famer either way, but I'm curious what writers like Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski will choose to mention about Griffey's awful injury history and the number of hits, home runs, and other milestones that Griffey's aggressive play cost him. What do you think? Should voters be restricted to what's on the page, or is there room for discretion?

Weekday Baseball: Best. Thing. Ever.

2012-01-04T10:24:00.000-05:00

This morning in Hartford, Connecticut, it was 1 degree above zero after the windchill had been factored in. Yes, this is commonplace where I'm originally from in Minnesota, but it's pretty chilly as far as New England goes. We haven't had snow here since October, when we were without power for almost a week, so it hasn't felt exactly wintry until the past few days. In fact, our grass is still relatively green, which almost gives you the illusion that it's not January, and that baseball season isn't three long months away.

As I scraped my car off this morning, I thought of one of the best baseball quotes ever, from Rogers Hornsby: "People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." I have always loved that quote. It reminds me of how much people love the game of baseball and its traditions, and also how players used to play simply for the love of the game (and earned a paycheck that wasn't 1,000 times larger than what the average guy made). It's kind of the way I felt this morning. I'm no Rogers Hornsby, but I think I await the new season in just the same way, and I bet many of you do, too. So today's post is about something that I'm looking forward to this upcoming baseball season.

Weekday Baseball. It might be the best thing ever invented. Not that I ever attend weekday games, living in central Connecticut, but I greatly enjoy following them on the computer. Nothing is better than a Thursday getaway day game, usually starting at 1 p.m. my time, and lasting until I'm just about to start wrapping up my day. However you follow it -- whether it's through your computer, twitter, smartphone, the hushed tones of AM 1500 at your office, or perhaps you're occasionally lucky enough to sneak off to Target Field -- it's fantastic.

For me there's just something great about being able to monitor a Twins game while I'm working. Not that I'm the best, or most efficient, employee on those days, but I will tell you that I'm most definitely a happier co-worker to be around. Somehow, just being able to check the score every half hour or so makes a big difference in morale. I count 3 regular season weekday games in April, so that's something to look forward to. And even when the Twins were awful in 2011, a getaway day game while I was working still caught my attention.

Other sports haven't really imparted day games into their scheduling (not counting the NFL, of course), let alone weekday games. Travel considerations seem to be a big factor in scheduling day baseball games, and the way series are scheduled in baseball is unique when compared to the other sports. Watching the NHL classic the other day, I couldn't get over how great it was to see outdoor, daytime professional hockey. I als envisioned it being held at Target Field. It also reminds me of that first Thursday of the NCAA men's basketball tournament, when all your co-workers are checking their brackets, practically starting in the mid-morning. Every now and then, people just need an escape from their routine. And if you can't attend the day games, being connected to the game in one way or another -- whether through the dulcet tones of "Dazzle" Dan Gladden, or from LaVelle E. Neal's tweets -- makes things just a little bit better for those three hours.

Lock Up Francisco Liriano: Now is the Time

2012-01-03T09:15:00.001-05:00

Last year, Twins fans were curious whether the front office would seek to lock up lefty Francisco Liriano, who was coming off a very strong 2010 season. In the end, of course, the parties only agreed to go year-to-year. Seth Stohs quoted then-general manager Bill Smith as stating the following regarding Liriano, at last year's Twins Fest: "No, we are going to go year-to-year with Liriano, at least for one more year. We definitely recognize the risk in doing that and if he has another big year, it will cost us some money." When I read that quote last year, it made me think two things: first, that the organization, for whatever reason, did not want to commit many years or dollars to Liriano; and second, that if Liriano did have a big 2011 season, the Twins would probably be priced out of his market for a long-term contract anyway (notwithstanding that he is under team control for 2012), because two straight years of dominance for a hard-throwing lefty strikeout machine is a hot commodity.

Well, it seems that, at least with respect to timing, Smith was right not to "buy high" on Liriano last season. Liriano had anything but "another big year," going 9-10 with a 5.09 ERA. Yes, he did have a no-hitter, and he did show flashes of brilliance on occasion. But it was an extremely frustrating year for Liriano, and he did nothing to build upon, let alone replicate, his 2010 season. It was frustrating for fans, manager Ron Gardenhire, pitching coach Rick Anderson, the front office, and I'm sure most of all, for Liriano himself. There could be a silver lining, though.

I have no idea whether Liriano wants to stay in Minnesota long-term. It seems to me that they have treated him fairly, and have stuck with him through the ups and downs of his career. At the same time, though, the organization's reluctance in the 2010 offseason to attempt to sign Liriano to a contract that would buy out his last 2 arbitration years, and a year or two of free agency, could have rubbed Liriano the wrong way. There was also an incident in 2008 where Liriano's agent, Greg Genske, sought a union investigation after Liriano, who had gone 7-0 in Rochester in 9 starts, had not been called up to the Twins. That, however, was years ago. I simply have no idea where the parties stand. It's hard to imagine, however, that Liriano doesn't like pitching at Target Field.

I think that now would be a good time to contact Liriano's agent and try to negotiate a 3 or 4 year contract. Major League Baseball Trade Rumors has Liriano pegged for an approximate salary of $5.2 million in 2012; he made $4.3 million in 2011 after the parties avoided arbitration. Boy, to be able to get a sizeable raise after throwing up those stats in 2011!! In any event, $5.2 million for Liriano is not a bad deal. I hope we see more of the 2010 Liriano than the 2011 Liriano, and, quite simply, that's been his problem throughout his career (that, and the Tommy John surgery, of course). Which Liriano will the Twins get in 2012? And, if the parties manage to continue their working relationship, which Liriano will we see in 2013-2015? It's really a toss-up, which is exactly why Liriano is so intriguing.

A Minnesota sports writer or blogger penned a good column a year or so ago suggesting that the Twins should have locked up Joe Mauer in early 2009, when he was rehabbing in Ft. Myers. I can't find the column, but the best line went something like this: "Bill Smith should have gone to Ft. Myers the first week of the regular season, when Mauer was in pain, rehabbing that knee, soaking in a hot tub after a tough workout, and feeling guilty that he wasn't in Minnesota with his teammates to begin the regular season. Smith should have said, 'Joe, don't worry about it. Don't worry about those nagging injures. We want you to be a Twin forever; we'll take care of you. Here, take this pen and sign this 9-year $162 million contract. We're going to make you the richest catcher in baseball, the richest Twin in history, and you'll be here forever. And don't worry about that knee or those other injuries -- you'll get through it.'" Of course, such a conversation probably never took place, and the Twins ended up buying high on Mauer after 2009, in what will almost certainly be his best season ever, and one of the best seasons for a catcher in the history of baseball. I still believe that the Mauer contract isn't bad, and it simply was a market rate contract for an elite player. But it is an example of buying high on a player, and, as we saw in 2011, when that star player is injured or otherwise unproductive, such a contract is a risky proposition to a team with a limited budget.

My question for the Twins now is, "if not Liriano, then who?" What other pitcher are they going to sign that has the potential to throw a no-hitter, to come close to leading the league in strikeouts, and who currently is wearing a Twins jersey? Yes, Liriano might never be as good as he was in 2010. But I would like to think that he won't be as bad as he was in 2011, either. He might never be that dependable 1-2 starter that the Twins so desperately need; but he also might be 2 fixes away from being that -- here comes the word -- ace that all us fans want, and that we have had glimpses of in 2006 and 2010.

By locking up Liriano now, the Twins can do the opposite of what they ended up doing with Mauer -- buy low, relatively speaking. It's certainly risky from the Twins' perspective, and I get it: Liriano has been anything but consistent. But I think Liriano is worth the risk, and I want this team to take a risk, rather than simply signing pitchers of the Nick Blackburn-ilk to so-called "team friendly" contracts, or getting a Livan Hernandez or Jason Marquis-type player every year to fill that final rotation spot.

I'm not sure who constitutes a good comparison for Liriano. He's unique, to be sure, because he's a lefty, power pitcher, who already has had Tommy John surgery, has been consistently inconsistent, and threw a no-hitter in a season where he would have had the 4th highest ERA in the American League had he thrown enough innings to qualify. I don't have a computer program to tell me what that kind of a starter should be paid, but, just for the sake of conversation, I would buy out this arbitration year, and try to get Liriano to sign for 4 years, $9-10 million a year. Yes, it's a risk, and there's a decent chance it could be a bad investment. But, if we get 2 years of the 2010 Liriano, then he will surely earn the majority of that contract. Another possibility is that if Liriano is at least decent, there's always a chance that if the Twins' are not competitive down the road, the contract could be movable to a contending team looking for that elusive lefty, strikeout pitcher. The Yankees have expressed interest multiple times. As I mentioned earlier, I have no idea if Liriano even wants to stay in Minnesota long-term, but if he is willing, I would negotiate now.

I'd be happy to hear your thoughts. Should we just sever ties and trade him at the deadline for a good prospect? Should we have traded him last year? Or should we hire a sports psychologist to try to figure out why he sometimes can't make it through the first inning?

My New Year's Resolutions for Twins Fan From Afar

2012-01-02T12:34:00.001-05:00

Everyone is posting their New Year's resolutions for the Twins for 2012, and I have enjoyed reading those. In fact, I don't have much more to add than, for example, what was posted at NoDak Twins Fan. I definitely agree that Mauer has to play 130 or so games behind the plate, and that Morneau and Span need to put the concussion issues behind them, in order for this team to play above .500 baseball. Because I don't have much to add on that front, I thought I would post some New Year's resolutions of my own for this blog. I'm a believer that goals and tasks are much more likely to be accomplished if they are written out (and seen by others), so here we go:

1. Write least 150 posts in 2012: Last year, I started the blog in March, and wrote 93 posts. I think 150 posts is a good goal to shoot for -- approximately 3 per week, for 50 weeks, with some time off for vacation, and for when I'm simply out of ideas.

2. Redesign the background of the blog: This one might be accomplished in the next few days. I'd like to incorporate a picture I have taken at Target Field as the background for this blog, and get rid of the blue background that is currently there. I'm sure it's easy to do, but I'm sort of a luddite when it comes to technology.

3. Interview a Twins player or front office member: I like to think that the Twins are an approachable organization. Over the years, I have had some correspondence with Dave St. Peter and a few members of the communications staff on various issues. This one might be a reach, but I think it would be great for the blog, and of interest to Twins fans, to briefly interview a player or front office member.

4. Add New Britain Rock cats content: I live only about a half hour away from Rock Cats Stadium, but I only attend a few games per season. It's a shame. I plan to purchase a 6-game pack of tickets when they go on sale this year, and intend to add player photographs and game recaps following the games that I attend. I fully admit that I'm not up on Twins prospects like, for example, Seth Stohs, but I think that nothing beats a game recap written by someone who was there watching in person. Last season, I watched Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee play in what would be their second to last AA game ever. 2 short days later, I watched on TV as they made their major league debuts for the Twins. That's what makes minor league baseball great. One night, they're playing for 2,000 people and signing autographs in a parking lot in central Connecticut, and before you know it, they're wearing the TC hat and playing in the best stadium in baseball. Having Twins AA baseball just a stone's throw away from me is really a blessing, and I will using the fact that I am "from afar," to be add some (hopefully) great Rock Cats content in 2012.

5. Continue the satire every once and a while: I can't take baseball too seriously, especially if the team isn't very good again in 2012. There are only so many posts I can write about injuries, trades and "what the Twins must do to win in 2012." Every few weeks, I need a break. Frustration with the Twins is what has spawned posts like this and this. I truly admire bloggers who can write post after post of serious content, but I simply can't do it.

So there you have it. Hopefully by writing this post, I will be more likely to accomplish the goals set forth therein. Thanks to everyone that checks out this blog, whether it's every time I post, once a week, or once a month.

Let's go Twins!

Johnny Damon -- Hall of Famer?

2011-12-29T14:02:00.001-05:00

This is mostly a non-Twins post, but there's not much happening right now at Target Field. I always enjoy this time of year, though. Although the Twins' hot stove has cooled down (was it ever really scorching??), it's time for the Baseball Writers' Association of America to select, or not select, candidates for the Hall of Fame. This year, it seems like longtime Cincinnati Red shortstop Barry Larkin is the most likely to get in, but he's no lock. Those writers are certainly a goofy bunch of loons. They never vote 100% for any player, and have made many, many deserving candidates wait a year or two -- candidates that most would think of as "first ballot" hall of famers.

Current free agent Johnny Damon is sitting at 2,723 hits for his career. Here are his hit totals for the last 4 seasons: 168, 155, 146, 152. That averages about 155 hits per season. Those are respectable stats for a 38 year old Caveman. Make no mistake, though, Damon is on the decline. His batting average and his on-base percentage have declined each of these past 4 seasons, and he slugged just .401 and .418 in 2010 and 2011.

Damon has been very good at two things in his career: getting many hits in a season; and staying healthy enough to play many games each season. He has only been an All-Star twice, we all know that his defense was never great, and his arm may be comparable to Ben Revere's. And, interestingly, he only once had 200 hits in a season. Damon has been a good major league player for many years, and he did have some great seasons (2000 and 2005 come to mind). It's also noteworthy that he has played for 2 World Series winning teams, He had good speed, having stolen just over 400 bases in his career. But when you look at his stats, he doesn't jump out as hall of famer (.286/.353/.435; 231 HR; 1,120 RBIs; and the stolen bases). Sure, it's a great career -- probably better than 90 percent of MLB players. But is it worthy of the Hall of Fame? There are certainly many other very good players with similar lines and careers, that were never considered serious candidates for the hall of fame.

Sitting on 2,723 hits, Damon needs just 277 hits to reach the 3,000 hit club. If he continues to play 2 more seasons, he would need to average 138.5 hits per season to get it done. Damon has never played fewer than 141 games in a season (2007 Yankees), so his body has held up very well to the grind of playing baseball professionally for nearly 2 decades. And playing in the American League certainly benefits Damon, as he can DH.

It just so happens that every eligible (read Pete Rose) member of the 3,000 hit club that has not tested positive for steroids (read Rafael Palmeiro), has been inducted into baseball immortality. Derek Jeter and Craig Biggio have attained the feat, but are not yet eligible. Barring unforeseen allegations concerning PED use, both are sure to be hall of famers. So, Damon will, upon getting that 3,000th hit, join an exclusive club wherein every single eligible, non-confirmed steroid using member has been enshrined in the Hall of Fame. It almost sounds like a sure thing.

But what about Damon? His 1 great feat will be getting 3,000 hits. Assuming he does it, does that, alone, make him a Hall of Famer? I guess my answer is "yes," if the Hall of Fame voters intend to remain consistent. Although the number of home runs hit in the game of baseball has gone up, and 500 HR doesn't mean what it used to, 3,000 hits remains pretty special: only 28 players have done it. They hit for a good enough average (Cal Ripken Jr. was the lowest, incidentally, with a career .276 average) to stay in the game for years, and they had the health and duration to outlast many of their peers. Most were fantastic all-around players. Robin Yount, Stan Musial and Willie Mays come to mind. Sure, no one would serious suggest that Damon is like a Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, or even a Paul Molitor, but the value of getting a hit, and doing it consistently, for nearly 20 years in the major leagues, has not really changed all that much. It's still a valuable commodity. Last time I checked, hits lead directly to getting on base, which corresponds to scoring runs. I don't need a sabermetric stat to convince me that hitting is still, and will always be, one of the most important factors into the game.

In full disclosure, though, I think it's probably fair to note that, in the last decade or so, players have been reaching the 3,000 hit plateau more often than in previous generations. In fact, since the 1999 MLB season, 8 out of the 28 current 3,000 hit members reached their 3,000th hit. So, almost 29% of the 3,000 hit club was formed in just 13 years of baseball. Then again, though, it's not as if there is a gigantic waiting list of players with 2,900 hits. It's still a rare and impressive feat. Perhaps that's the way the game has changed? We certainly see a lot of players hanging around until they are 40 years, or even older, and remaining productive. That probably wasn't as commonplace 80 years ago.

Joe Posnanski had an interesting post the other day, in which he opined that approximately half of baseball's hall of famers did two of the following three things very, very well, in order to become hall of famers: hitting; fielding; base running. Where would Johnny Damon be? Well, he hit a lot, and for many years, and there were some years where he hit really well, but basically he just hit well for a long time. His fielding certainly was never a plus, and though his baserunning and base stealing used to be good, he was never a Ricky Henderson type of leadoff force. In any event, the bottom line is that he only did one of those three things, and only arguably did he do it very well. From that standpoint, he doesn't have much going in his favor apart from the likelihood of achieving the magic number of 3,000 hits.

I think it's going to be an interesting debate when it happens. And I do think that it's going to happen. Someone will employ Damon for 2 more seasons. He's a professional, and he still has talent (remember what he did against the Twins last season in Tampa Bay)? But he most certainly will not be a first ballot hall of famer, and he may have to wait several years before being voted in. If the body of voters has any consistency, however, it seems to be in electing players with 3,000 hits -- as long as you are not Pete Rose and haven't conclusively been linked to steroids.

I attended the entire Twins-Orioles series in April of 2000, when Cal Ripken, Jr. got his 3,000th hit. I was also there when Eddie Murray did it (also against the Twins) in 1995. It's an amazing accomplishment, and as long as we don't see players starting to reach that pinnacle every year, I think that the number 3,000, alone, does make a candidate worthy of the Hall of Fame, regardless of the quality of their other "tools."

Incidentally, for comparison, if Damon becomes the 29th member of the 3,000 hit club (just assume he stops with 3,000 hits even), here's his company for a couple other stats: The guys around 29th for all-time home runs are Lou Gehrig, Fred McGriff, Stan Musial and Willie Stargell. Wins for pitchers: Ferguson Jenkins (Bert Blyleven is currently 27th, incidentally). I'm sort of cherry-picking, but you get the point. The top 30 for most MLB career records is usually pretty good company. A hit is a stat just as much as a home run, or a win. And to me it's darn impressive. I'm not about to go out and buy a Johnny Damon jersey, much less his book, but don't be surprised in 10, 12, or 15 years, if he just eeks past that 75 percent threshold. There have been worse hall of famers.

First Pitch Strikes and Francisco Liriano: Take II

2011-12-27T12:44:00.000-05:00

Last April, when basically no one was reading this blog, I wrote what I still consider to be an interesting piece on Francisco Liriano and his ability -- or inability -- to throw first pitch strikes. The long and short of the post was that, when Liriano had his couple good seasons, he often got ahead in the count with a first pitch strike; and when he had subpar seasons, he often fell behind in the count with a first pitch ball. If you have 5 minutes, it's worth a read (or so I think).

I wrote that piece on April 19, just a couple weeks into the season. I noted that, as of that date, Liriano had throw first-pitch strikes to 49.5% of batters. I compared that to his 2010 percentage, which was 61.7%. We all know that, for Liriano, the rest of 2011 was a pretty big disappointment. Yes, he threw a no-hitter, but even in that game, he walked 6 batters, threw a ton of pitches, and only struck out 2. I believed it in April, and I still believe it now: for Liriano, throwing a first-pitch strike around 60% of the time is a major key to his success.

I wanted to update my April post with some new data on Liriano and others with respect to this stat. So, how did Liriano fare for 2011? Not well. His first strike percentage was just 49.4% last season. That means that Liriano fell behind in the count just over half the time. If you're a fan who watches most games, you probably would believe that statistic, because for me, it sure felt that way. For comparison, let's see how this year's Cy Young award winners fared: Tigers' ace Justin Verlander threw a first pitch strike 61.4% of the time, and the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw did the same 64.1% of the time. Both these figures are higher than the player's career average (in Kershaw's case, 64.1% represented a nearly 4% increase over his career average -- very impressive).

Liriano's career average is 56%, which is not fantastic. I do, however, think it's important to note that, in and of itself, there is nothing great about throwing first pitch strikes all the time. To be sure, batters will sit and wait on a first pitch fastball if they know that, time and time again, one is coming. It doesn't matter if you throw 88 or 98 miles per hour; major leaguers will figure it out eventually. Here's the first few in the list of 2011 first strike leaders: Kyle Lohse; Carl Pavano; Roy Halladay; Colby Lewis; Bartolo Colon; Josh Tomlin. As you can see, some are good pitchers, some are above average, some are below average, and some have actually been members of the Twins (coincidence?). Pavano is illustrative of the fact that a high first strike percentage doesn't necessarily equate to a low ERA or a high win total. You have to be able to record outs after you get ahead in counts, and that's where trouble can begin.

But for Liriano, that's exactly why I think the first-strike percentage is so important. Pavano, for example, doesn't have a great fastball, or a strikeout pitch like Liriano's slider. He relies on control and getting hitters to make contact on the pitch he wants them to swing at. Same with some of the others on the list. Liriano, when he is good, is more like a Verlander than a Pavano. That first pitch strike allows him to expand the zone, get hitters to chase at tough strikes and balls, and to go for the strikeout, perhaps with that great slider in the dirt. Falling behind 1-0 more than half the time leads to walks and hits, which is what we saw a lot of in 2011.

First pitch strikes are not a cure-all for Francisco Liriano. I think he needs a different coaching strategy, he may need the assistance of a sports psychologist to help him get through the first inning of games without incident, and he certainly does not need to be instructed to "pitch to contact," whatever you believe that term means. But first pitch strikes for Liriano are similar to a Denard Span walk to lead off an inning: good things will often happen. My prediction is that if Liriano can deliver around 60% first pitch strikes, he will have a good 2012 season. First pitch strikes are indicative of a general command of the strike zone, and I think that we can all agree that Liriano is his best when he exhibits that command.

Nishioka Signing Still Hurts

2011-12-23T10:48:00.000-05:00

Apart from his awful play in the field and at the plate, the Twins' contractual obligation to Tsuyoshi Nishioka pains me right now. After learning that the Twins were hoping to achieve a salary cap of approximately $100 million, I was hopeful that this was a "soft" cap -- that Terry Ryan was either not being honest with the media and fans, or that he would have the ability to spend above that for a player that could be a big difference-maker. It's no secret, of course, that the biggest difference-maker the Twins need would be a #1 or #2 caliber starting pitcher, or at least a #3 level veteran with the ability to miss some bats.

Then, we hear yesterday that the Twins officially signed veteran starter Jason Marquis to a 1-year, $3 million contract. Sure, the financial investment of this particular contract is relatively minimal, and it is a short time commitment. Those are the only positives that I can take from this. As others have noted, Marquis is really not much better than Nick Blackburn, and he is in the mold of either a Blackburn or Carl Pavano (Could we call him a hybrid, a Pavburn, or Blackvano ???). He is a pitch-to-contact thrower with a somewhat high walk rate, and a career ERA of 4.55. In other words, he fits the Twins' mold, but certainly does not represent much of an improvement, at least in terms of ERA, over the Twins' starters' 2011 ERA of 4.64. If a stated goal of the offseason was to lower the staff ERA, this signing is unlikely to go a long way toward achieving that result, even though Marquis is presumably replacing Brian Duensing, who owned a 5.23 ERA last season.

Although I'm trying to remain positive this holiday season, the Marquis bargain basement signing sends a pretty strong message that the $100 million payroll is not exactly "soft," and that the starting rotation of Liriano, Baker, Pavano, Blackburn and Marquis is going to be the planned rotation (not necessarily in that order) in 2012. As a fan, this is tough to accept, given previous statements from the Twins that they were going to try to upgrade starting pitching this off-season. Clearly, the "upgrade" was from Duensing to Marquis. It's like trading a newish, crappy car for an older, crappy car: in the end you're still driving a crappy car.

So where does Nishioka fit into this? Well, the Twins are paying him $3 million this year, and it is generally assumed that, because Jamey Carroll is manning shortstop and Alexi Casilla is presumably the opening day second baseman, Nishioka will be a highly paid utility infielder. Others believe he may actually start the season at AAA Rochester so he can learn how to play American professional baseball. $3 million -- 3% of the Twins' 2012 payroll -- on a player that: 1) may not be on the opening day Twins' roster; and 2) even if he is on the Twins' roster, is unlikely to positively impact the team, is significant wasted money. Even if Nishioka is OK this season, paying 7 times the league minimum for a player that, in all likelihood wouldn't be worse than Brian Dozier or some AAA call-up, is damaging to the organization.

Imagine, instead, if the Twins didn't have Nishioka, and did have the extra money, which I approximate for the sake of argument at $2.5 million ($3 million minus $500,000 for a rookie infielder). That would have left $5.5 million for a starter, rather than $3 million (I'm assuming, maybe incorrectly, that the $3 million the Twins spent on Marquis represented close to the maximum that they wanted to spend on any starter). Clearly, the Twins could have been in negotiations for a better starting pitcher if they had nearly double the money to spend filling that role. Or, think of the quality relief arm/arms that the team could get for $5.5 million.

Now sure, I know that you can make this argument about any player that has failed completely to achieve even mediocre results -- and that every organization makes these mistakes at some point -- but Nishioka hurts now because his signing is still a recent memory, the dollars are not insignificant, he is still on the payroll for two more seasons, and the Twins apparently need every last dollar to put together a competitive team in 2012. As I have said before, I would love to be wrong about Nishioka, but I have a tough time thinking that anything has changed dramatically in the 3 months that have passed since Nishioka last donned a Twins uniform. For a team that still does not have an unlimited budget, every mistake hurts. It's one thing to spend $1 million on an aging veteran for 1 year, taking a chance that he has one more decent season left in him. Those deals fail pretty often, and that's part of baseball. It's another thing to make a multi-year commitment to a player that has failed, thus far, to demonstrate that he has discernible role at Target Field in 2012.

My Christmas wish is that Terry Ryan isn't done working on the pitching staff. This offense, if healthy, is going to score some runs because there are several players that are good at getting on base, and there are several players with the ability to drive in runs. The starting rotation, and the bullpen, both need help. Otherwise, I fear that we're going to see a lot of 10-8 Twins losses in 2012.

Departed Twins' Playoff Stats: What Have We Given Up?

2011-12-21T08:41:00.000-05:00

If there's been a constant theme lately in the comments to this blog, and others, it is that the Twins not only need to be a competitive team in 2012, but a team that is capable of advancing past the first round of the playoffs. Sure, that feels pretty far away right now, coming off a 99 loss season, but I don't think that most fans are going to give the team a free pass in 2011 and call it a "success" to spend over $100 million and win 81 games in a ballpark that is only 3 years old, and was supposed to usher in a new era of Twins' success. And I agree. Although I personally don't think that the Twins have the pitching -- right now -- to get in the playoffs and win a playoff series, 2012 will be a failure if we see more of what we saw in 2011. So that's what I want to talk about today -- the playoffs, and, specifically, what the Twins have given up in recent weeks with the departures of Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan.

Michael Cuddyer, a guy not necessarily known as Mr. Clutch throughout his career as a Twin, was very consistent in the playoffs. Here's his slash line: .338/.372/.473, in 74 at-bats. Those figures are all above his regular season career averages. In 2010, he hit a home run in Game 1 of the ALDS at Target Field against the Yankees, and I thought for a second that things were going to be different this time around. And then, just like Lucy pulling the football from Charlie Brown for the hundredth as he went to kick it, the Twins fooled me one more time. So, say what you will about Cuddyer and his penchant for swinging at sliders in the dirt, but the man was at least consistent when it counted the most, and he in fact played better in October than he did during the regular season. The Twins' playoff struggles certainly can't be blamed on Cuddyer.

How about Kubel? I had remembered that he struck out a lot in the 2009 ALDS, but that was about it. The stats are not encouraging: in 29 at-bats, here is Kubel's slash line: .069/.156/.103. 13 strikeouts; 2 total hits -- a single and a double. Simply stated, Kubel has been horrific in the playoffs. As consistent as he was in helping the Twins compete and win in the regular season, his playoff track record is abysmal. Without looking into the detailed, game-by-game stats, I'm guessing that some of Kubel's failures are the result of facing tough leftys, including CC Sabathia, in October. Kubel, never known for hitting southpaws very well, would have been put in a situation where he was very likely to fail. Add that to the stress of the playoffs, and you apparently end up with a slash line that makes Drew Butera's look like Ted Williams'.

As consistent as Joe Nathan was in the regular season throughout his career saving games in Minnesota, he was equally inconsistent in October when it mattered the most. For his playoff career, Nathan owns a 7.88 ERA in 8 innings of work, having allowed 2 home runs, and striking out 10 while walking 7. According to my notes, he has 2 blown saves, 1 save, and 1 loss in 8 appearances. Unfortunately, Nathan's playoff legacy in Minnesota is that he was unable to get the job done when it counted most. Sure, some of the blame rests on the Twins as a whole, for not scoring more runs or not fielding a better playoff lineup, but Nathan couldn't earn his closer money when the Twins most needed a closer.

What about Matt Capps, who the Twins re-signed a few weeks ago? Well, for the definition of a small sample size, here you go: 1 total inning pitched, 2 hits, 1 earned run. Sadly, the man we traded Wilson Ramos for, the man who was supposed to help our playoff run in 2010, pitched 1 lousy inning in the playoffs.

So there you have it, a quick rundown of what the Twins have given up, in terms of playoff performances, from their free agents that have left for (perceived) greener pastures. Of course, the big caveat with these figures is the extremely small sample size, with the exception of perhaps Cuddyer. But isn't that what the playoffs are about -- who can succeed, and who fails, in an extremely small window for success that has extremely large implications? Perhaps there's a reason that Cuddyer has been more successful in October than in the regular season, and that otherwise-reliable players such as Kubel and Nathan have been dreadful? I don't know much about clutch hitting as a reliable statistical measure, but it certainly is worth exploring. And, of course, not every at-bat in the playoffs is a clutch situation. But how else do you explain Kubel's absolute inability to play the game of baseball -- even the inability to make contact in nearly half of his at-bats --when the calendar turns to October? I'm sure others have more informed views on this topic, and I'd love to hear them. In any event, however, if we are thinking about the Twins, either in the short term or the long term, as a playoff team, the only major loss statistically was Michael Cuddyer. The problem, though, is that players such as Nathan and Kubel were huge reasons that the Twins ever got to the playoffs in the first place.

Cautious Optimism

2011-12-16T11:02:00.000-05:00

We have Willingham; we have Doumit; we have Carroll. Joe Mauer reported that he's happy, healthy, and is ready for a rebound season. Justin Morneau's workouts are reportedly going well (I think I've heard that before, though). Willingham effectively replaces Michael Cuddyer's offensive production (and we didn't have to pay him $10.5 million to do it), and may even be a better overall player. Doumit hits for average and some power, though he has had significant injuries. Carroll, though no spring chicken, is an on-base percentage guy with a decent bat, and should do well as a table-setter for the middle of the lineup guys. Long story short, it's feeling better as a Twins fan than it did a month ago.

If the season were to start right now, I peg the Twins as a .500 team. Yes, this could be a pretty good offense. Span/Carroll/Mauer/Willingham/Morneau/Doumit/Valencia/Casilla/Revere. I see some speed at the front and back of the lineup, some power in the middle, and a balance of lefty and righty hitters. I also note, however, that the 3-6 hitters in this projection each have significant injury risks, so who knows the likelihood of seeing this lineup intact throughout the season. In any event, though, it is a much superior lineup to the Tosoni, Parmelee, Dinkelman days of 2011. Nothing against those guys, but I do want this team to be competitive now, not in 2014.

What's left? Pitching, then a little bit more pitching. Followed by just a pinch of pitching. That's what will get this team above the .500 mark. I don't know how they are going to acquire it, but I do know that good starters are expensive. This is no time to close up the wallet, though. If the organization really was committed to spending $25 million on Cuddyer, even after landing Willingham, then logic would suggest that the roughly $8 million a year is still available -- for the right player or players. Perhaps a trade is possible? I honestly haven't spent much time analyzing the possibilities, because, frankly, it feels like an exercise in futility. Plus, many others have. As a fan I would rather just see pitching deals get done. Edwin Jackson is an option, though he reminds me of Francisco Liriano.

But I do now have reason for cautious optimism: the organization wouldn't already be pushing $100 million for 2012 payroll if it was in a rebuilding mode, and would not have handed out multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts to veterans. Hopefully Terry Ryan won't be resigned to dumpster diving for pitching. Perhaps talks for a starter that can miss opponents' bats are in the works already? Maybe I should give him a little time - - it has, after all, been a busy week in Twins Territory. Today, Friday, is a day for optimism. Things look much better than they did just weeks ago. This lineup, though perhaps not the favorite to win the Central Division, at least won't lose 99 games.

What do you think? Am I drinking too much of the Terry Ryan Kool-Aid? Am I happy because I'm taking a half-day off today? Thanks for reading.

Eulogizing Michael Cuddyer

2011-12-14T09:19:00.000-05:00

From the sound of it, Michael Cuddyer is done as a Twin. Terry Ryan and the organization moved in on Josh Willingham, presumably after getting tired of waiting to hear back from Cuddyer on the Twins' 3 year, $25 million (or so) offer. Cuddyer was/is seeking in the neighborhood of 3 years and $30 million, but understandably and logically, the Twins weren't willing to go there. It looks like, by jumping in and signing Willingham for 3 years and around $21 million, the Twins effectively cut off negotiations with Cuddyer and have made it easy for him to leave Minnesota while not having his reputation tarnished by being labeled as a player who had no loyalty to the team or who jumped ship when times got tough. Wherever Cuddyer goes, I wish him the best of luck. I thought that this might be an appropriate time to contemplate Cuddyer as a player and person, and to reflect on where this leaves the rest of the team.

It's always tough to lose your longest-tenured player, whether that comes via trade, free agency or retirement, so make no mistake, Cuddyer does leave a void to be filled, and not just out in right field. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span, and maybe even a guy like Glen Perkins, are going to have to step up as leaders, and will need to be accountable to the media in the same way that Cuddyer was. And Danny Valencia, I'm looking at you specifically: it's time to grow up. It's not going to be sufficient for Mauer to duck reporters in 2012 and to leave others to clean up his mess. He needs to lead now, regardless of whether he's initially comfortable in that role. It quite simply comes with the contract and the "hometown hero" status that he cultivated in the mid-2000s.

Equally as important, who will do the magic tricks in the clubhouse from now on? I have no idea whether the Twins have any other amateur magicians on the roster. My guess is no, unless Bill Smith had more foresight than I thought. If not, we could use one of the supplemental draft picks gained by not signing Cuddyer and scout a player with that attribute. Just an idea.

And as far as Cuddyer's work in the community, though it has little bearing on the on-the-field product, it is noteworthy. Again, this is an area where other guys are going to need to step in. Fans like to think that players are just like the rest of us. Seeing them wait tables, serve drinks, sign autographs for kids and host charity events, goes a long way toward cultivating a brand of baseball in Minnesota that, I believe, is actually pretty great. Players here are simply much more approachable and nice than they are in most other cities I have visited -- especially New York and Boston (good luck getting within 100 feet of Derek Jeter; and watch when he then refuses to sign autographs for kids).

Cuddyer's power -- don't forget he lead the Twins in home runs in 2011 -- should be replicated nicely by Willingham. As will his RBI and slugging percentage totals. So that's a wash. In fact, Willingham may display more power than Cuddyer. But as far as versatility, Cuddyer has a leg up. No more do we have an outfielder that can fill in at second base or first base. But that's OK. Let's not forget that Cuddyer wasn't especially good in those positions, and that, if this team is really trying to compete for the playoffs, having an outfielder playing second base for an extended time period isn't a good sign. Further, we saw Mauer play a decent first base last year, and it sounds like Nishioka will be a utility infielder at least to start off 2012. Cuddyer's versatility and willingness to play anywhere, though laudable and necessary in years past, hopefully will not be missed much in 2012.

Double play ground balls, low-and-away sliders: Achilles heels of Michael Cuddyer. I have to admit that I won't be sad to not watch him flail helplessly at a slider in the dirt for strike three, with a runner on second and two outs. It's an image that has been repeated many times over the past several years. Sure, every player has holes in their swing, but this was a crater that was never patched up. And don't forget that Cuddyer started off miserably in 2011, threatening not to drive in a runner with a base hit until approximately June (it felt like). Granted, he really heated up in the middle of the season and had a respectable 2011, but boy, those first couple months were painful. I'm not sure exactly what to expect from Willingham (I know the batting average won't be sky high), but a consistent .270 with power would be all right by me.

Finally, it's worth noting that it sounds like Cuddyer might have wanted out of Minnesota. And that's his right. He has every reason to doubt that the Twins will be playing in a World Series during his playing days. Still, though, with the teams courting Cuddyer rumored to be the Rockies and the Mariners, it's not exactly as if he would be leaving for necessarily greener pastures. Sure, the 3 years and $24 million the Twins offered represented a yearly pay decrease for Cuddyer, and it was below the $30 million he had hoped to get, but at the same time, I have yet to read that a team has approached him with that kind of money. In the end, Cuddyer probably didn't accept an offer from the Twins that, I bet, will be within a couple million dollars annually of the offer that he finally does sign. Maybe he wanted out; maybe he thought he could get a couple million more out of the Twins. Who knows?

Although Cuddyer has ups and downs as a player, he seemed like a genuinely nice guy. And now he has new Twin girls to take care of, so he definitely has other things on his mind. I'll applaud him when he comes back to play against the Twins, or wherever else I might see him on the road, and I hope he has a productive few years before he retires. Thereafter, I'd love to see him come back to Minnesota as a radio or TV personality. Say what you will about Bert Blyleven, Roy Smalley, Ron Coomer and the rest, but Cuddyer would be just as good, if not better, than than anyone in that group. Good luck, Michael!

Improving Target Field for the 2014 All-Star Game

2011-12-12T09:26:00.001-05:00

It's been reported that the Twins have a few upgrades in store for Target Field, with an eye on securing the 2014 All-Star Game. Certainly, I think it would be great for Minnesota to host the mid-summer classic for the first time since 1985, and would be an excellent opportunity to show off our new digs. In an effort to make their bid as strong as possible, the Twins plan to add more photos and displays, new carpeting and flooring, and improve both their wi-fi network and the ballpark food options. These sound like solid plans, but nothing very exciting. In fact, now that I think about it, these plans kind of mirror the 2011 Twins' off-season moves thus far: a couple things here and there, but nothing flashy or difference-making. If the Twins want to compete on the field in 2011, they are going to have to make some major moves; and if they really want the All-Star Game in 2014, we need to see dynamic changes to ensure that Target Field is as good as it possibly can be. My first suggestion would be to bring back those damn center field trees. But I digress. Today I want to discuss another option.

If you haven't yet seen the schematics or artist's renderings of the Miami Marlins' new ballpark, you should take a look. Personally, it's not quite my style, but I'm sure it will be a big hit in southern Florida. The park itself has many cool features, one of which is an aquarium. But it's not just any old aquarium -- this one is located in the backstop on either side of home plate -- where most teams simply have advertisements or green screens. The tank is going to be reinforced with some kind of super-thick Plexiglas to avoid the possibility of a batted or thrown ball shattering the aquarium, which will prevent thousands of parents from shielding their children's eyes as tropical fish flop helplessly in the on-deck circle on a 105 degree Miami afternoon. Here's the rendering:

Although we don't have Marlins, rays or tropical fish in Minnesota, I think something can be taken from this and used at Target Field: Even though I don't live in Minnesota, I've read many articles about the Asian Carp infestation in Minnesota's lakes, including the severe and long-lasting damage that these fish do to the ecosystem. But, apart from trying to eat them (yuck!), is there perhaps another beneficial use to be had with this species? I think the answer is a resounding Yes.

And that's why I want to present to you my idea for an Asian Carp Aquarium at Target Field. It's a winner from all sides: It's "Minnesotan" as much as the Walleye on the menu, the Grain Belt beer, the limestone facade, and the soon-to-be Kent Hrbek statue. Moreover, an aquarium is a moving, attention-getting attraction, so if the 2012 Twins are as bad as the 2011 Twins, at least there's something to watch. Finally, rounding up as many of the carp as is feasible and putting them in one place is part of the solution to this environmental woe.

I haven't done much research, but I'm fairly confident in stating that this Asian Carp Aquarium will be the first in professional baseball -- maybe even all of professional sports. Sure, new carpeting is nice to look at, and has that gluey smell. And wi-fi and food options are certainly important at any modern ballpark. But those things, by themselves, aren't going to get the Twins the All-Star Game. Fans today want sexy features, and I don't know what is sexier to baseball than an Asian Carp Aquarium.

Where would we put this thing? Well, I guess the Twins could directly copycat the Marlins and just put it right behind home plate. This idea has some merit -- plus, given the average velocity of most Twins pitchers, the reinforced Plexiglas probably wouldn't even be necessary. Another option is actually right on the playing field: As long as the Twins don't sign a real power hitter, the deep right-center and left-center gaps of Target Field are unattainable for most of our players. That's unused real estate. A gigantic fish tank would at least occupy some space there until we get a real hitter.

In the end, I'm doubtful that the Twins will go for this option. And if they did do an aquarium, I'm sure they would choose more "classic" Minnesota fish, like walleye, bass and perch. Asian Carp might not feel like the "Twins Way." But if the organization really wants to set itself apart from other stadiums, it's an idea at least worth considering. And financially, because the Twins would be doing the state a big favor by removing these carp from Minnesota lakes, I bet the DNR would subsidize this project. Now I'm speaking the Pohlad's language . . . .

Twins Fans Deserve Better

2011-12-09T13:39:00.000-05:00

Let's just say, for the sake of argument, that the Twins' front office was correct when it repeatedly has stated that the dismal 2011 season was the result of a barrage of injuries to most every single player that had been counted on to produce. Mauer, Morneau, Span, Thome, Baker. The list goes on and on, and there's definitely merit to this contention. Let's also say, for the sake of argument, the the Twins' front office is also correct when it says, now, that Mauer is healthy and ready for a big season, that Morneau's workouts have been going well, and generally there is every indication that last year's injuries were just a terrible confluence of events. Where does that leave us?

It leaves us in October, 2010, when the Twins were swept again in the playoffs by the Yankees, when the differences between the haves and the (sort of) have-nots were, for what felt like the thousandth time, exploited. Yes, the 2010 Twins were a very good team. But they were not capable of winning even a single playoff game. In an era in which it seems that the team with the best and hottest pitching has a dramatic advantage in the playoffs, the Twins started Brian Duensing in the third and final game, in the Bronx no less. I felt bad for the guy just watching him warm up on the mound. I'm not sure that I have seen a less confident pitcher, yet that's what the Twins were left with.

In the time that has passed, what moves have the Twins made to address the significant holes in their roster, and to become a more powerful force in baseball, not just in the AL Central division? No big moves come to mind. It's been the same old, tired story for years now: this organization rarely signs other teams' free agents, and is not very often successful at resigning its' own free agents. Furthermore, when the Twins have been aggressive at the trade deadline -- and willing to deal a top prospect -- it hasn't been in exchange for power starting pitching (which, I know, comes at a premium), but for an average, at best, closer. In short, even assuming that health returns to all those that were DL'd in 2011, this team is in no better position to have a chance at winning a playoff game or series than it was in 2010. Further, the 2012 Twins will lack Jim Thome (who was a driving force in 2010), as well as Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, or even both! Yes, theirs skills are replaceable through free agent acquisitions, but, at this point, am I crazy for harboring a little doubt that the Twins actually will swing a deal to bring in another power bat/outfielder? In fact, the Cuddyer deal is taking so long to get done that, by the time he actually decides whether to accept the Twins' offer, Josh Willingham could very well be gone to another team.

Am I wrong to expect that, after a 99 loss season, the Twins would seek to add at least 1 All-Star level player -- a player that wasn't on last year's team -- into the fold, in an effort to return to contention? A healthy crop of current Twins, plus Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit, do not a World Series team make (my intent is not to criticize these particular moves, as they undoubtedly do make the Twins stronger, but to emphasize that these moves are not nearly enough). At this point, I feel like the Twins may have done the worst thing possible: field a $100 million dollar team that cannot compete in the playoffs, instead of fielding a subpar team for 2 years while loading up great minor league prospects, and giving our own rookies a chance to play in the majors without immediate expectations, in anticipation of a return to greatness in or around 2014.

My Christmas wish is for a little more transparency from the front office. What exactly is going on here? I'm a little confused by the "moves" at the Winter Meetings. Is this a subtle re-tooling, the beginning of a multi-year rebuilding, or are these just decisions that I don't quite understand yet? Sure, the off-season is far from done, but do Terry Ryan, Ron Gardenhire and Dave St. Peter really think that this group -- with this questionable, to put it nicely, starting rotation -- is poised for a playoff run? If not, they why are they spending money on a "proven" closer, and contemplating committing around $30 million to an aging right fielder?

At least White Sox fans know that their team is rebuilding. At least Angels fans know why their ticket prices are going to increase in years to come. Twins fans, I feel, are being punished for not continuing to sell out Target Field last year, when the Rochester Red Wings played about 50 games there. Dave St. Peter has stated that payroll is a function of revenue, and that revenue is expected to drop in 2012, and that, because payroll is a function of revenue, payroll will also drop -- or at least won't increase. This sounds to me like a circular argument. Maybe if the Twins went out on a limb and signed a player that fans could be excited about (Edwin Jackson comes to mind as a somewhat realistic option with at least some upside), for more than 1 year, revenue would not be expected to drop?

There is still plenty of time, literally months, left in the off-season. Now that Albert Pujols has made his decision, it's Prince Fielder's turn. And on and on. There are many players left that need a home in 2012 and beyond, and there are numerous phone calls Terry Ryan should be making to try to put together a trade or two in order to help the Twins now. If they're committed to spending around $100 million on payroll, instead of $80 million and calling it a rebuilding year, then they may as well go on a limb and increase payroll a bit more so that they can secure a missing piece or two to help this team not only get back to being a relevant team during the regular season, but actually becoming a relevant team in October.

As always, I welcome and appreciate any comments.

Albert Pujols to the Angels: A Bad Day for Baseball

2011-12-08T10:14:00.000-05:00

Albert Pujols could have been our generation's Stan Musial. In fact, offensively, he will be better than Stan Musial by the time his career ends. If there's one thing I appreciate, it's star players that play their entire career in one city, through ups and downs, through championships and rebuilding seasons, through different stes of management and ownership, and spanning generations of players that come and go. Fixtures: Kirby, Cal, Stan, Derek, even Kent, come to mind. Note that most of these guys are identifiable by just one name. There's a sentamentality -- a special connection with the city, state and fan base -- that accompanies these unique players long after their days grinding it out between the foul lines have long since passed.

It is being reported that Pujols has signed with the Angels for 10 years, and a total contract value of between $250 and $260 million. The full details aren't in yet. Furthermore, we don't know what the Cardinals' offer topped out at. But, for the sake of argument, if the Cardinals matched the years, and were within $2-3 million per year of the Angels, then I say shame on Albert. For some reason, I foolishly believed -- or wanted to believe -- that Pujols truly valued the St. Louis fans, the community, and his legacy in that city more than it turns out he actually did.

He played in 3 World Series in his 11 years in St. Louis, winning 2. That's pretty remarkable. Though the Cardinals are rarely a pick to go to the World Series going into each season, Pujols, and his amazing offensive skills, catapulted them to success twice. Most players consider themselves very lucky to go to 1 World Series, and even luckier to win it. Clearly, Pujols values the money more than he does playing for a competitive team. This is not to state that the Angels won't be great in years to come -- in fact, they very well might become favorites to win the AL West in 2012 now -- but only to state that Pujols left a pretty great team in St. Louis -- the defending World Series champions -- for a team that, last year, didn't even make the playoffs, and that competes in a division with the new-perennial favorite Texas Rangers. Maybe he wants a new challenge and a change of scenery?

I'd like to say that I wish Pujols the best, but I guess I don't. Not right now, anyway. I'm sure he will continue to do great charity work in California, and will probably continue to support whatever initiatives he started in St. Louis. I just can't help but feel that, in exchange for about 10 percent of his total career income, Pujols missed out on an opportunity to truly immortalize himself in the St. Louis community. I wonder if he had a conversation with his "idol," Stan Musial at any point in this process? Probably not.

I'll probably have some more thoughts once the contract details are posted, but for now, this is how I feel. I'd be happy to hear what others think.

The Matt Capps Signing: It's Not Really All That Bad

2011-12-06T10:03:00.000-05:00

Let me preface this post by stating that I'm not a Matt Capps fan. I didn't like the deal that sent him here in exchange for Wilson Ramos, I don't like the fact that he is a closer who doesn't strike out batters, and, like the rest of you, I watched him implode this summer, throwing belt-high fastballs and sliders down the middle of the plate, while experienced major league hitters teed off. It was interesting to find out, well after the fact, that Capps was playing with an injured arm during this period of awfulness, but let's face it, he wasn't "lights out" in 2011 even when healthy, and he certainly didn't earn the $7.15 million that the Twins paid last year.

So, it wasn't great news to read last night that the Twins signed Capps to close in 2012. Thus far this offseason, I have thought that spending high dollars on an "established closer" is a waste of money for the 2012 Twins. I doubt that they will have the health and talent to win the AL Central and, accordingly, to spend upwards of $8-10 million on a veteran closer is a real waste of money. Viewed in this light, the Capps signing, at $4.75 million with a $6 million option (I have to imagine a team or mutual option) for 2013, isn't awful.

By comparison, Jesse Crain got paid $4 million last year by the White Sox, and will earn $4.5 million 2012 and 2013; Matt Guerrier left Minnesota and got $12 million over 3 years. Yes, both of those players did very good things in Minnesota, and yes, they also were both tough to watch during long stretches. I still wish we had kept at least one of them. I guess my point is that everyone seems to pay, or overpay, for established, late-inning relievers. Is Matt Capps at $4.75 million to close worse than Jesse Crain at $4.5 million, or Guerrier at $4 million. Maybe? Is he really that much worse? Probably not. And, in 2012, will it really make that much difference? Probably not.

I'm glad the Twins balked at Joe Nathan and his $7 million each of 2012 and 2013. This club didn't need to invest $14 million in a closer when they may be lucky to play .500 baseball. Similarly, I'm glad the Twins weren't foolish enough to spend $9 million on Heath Bell each of 2012, 2013 and 2014. Clearly, the Miami Marlins expect to compete, and they think that guaranteeing $27 million to an aging closer is the way to go.

The Twins still need another couple good, established bullpen arms. They still need to shore up the outfield, and they still need to figure out the rotation. Kevin Slowey's probably out, but what about Carl Pavano? Could they get something good in return for him? If so, who replaces him in the rotation? The point of this post isn't to discuss the Twins' remaining holes going into 2012; I'm simply stating that, in and of itself, this Capps signing doesn't really handicapp (see what I did there?) the front office all that much for 2012, as it would have if the Twins spent nearly twice the value of the Capps contract on a different, better, free agent closer.

Matt Capps, if healthy, will probably be better than he was in 2011. If the Twins don't compete next year, other clubs will be willing to take the rest of his relatively modest contract at the July trade deadline (either to close or to set up), just like the Twins did with Brian Fuentes in 2010. And if Capps somehow outperforms all expectations, increases his disappointing strikeout ratio (4.66/9 innings last year), and becomes an "All-Star closer" again, well, the Twins got a pretty good deal, and they have an affordable option for 2013 if Capps really can figure it out. Again, I doubt that will be the case, but the front office has not "ruined" the Twins now or in the future, by any stretch, with this signing.

Finally, about the supplemental draft pick that the Twins gave up by signing Capps. Yes, this could have been an important pick in the Twins' effort to re-stock the farm system. Yes, the Twins' farm system is in need of high level talent. But who knows what the Twins would have gotten, especially considering that this upcoming draft class is supposedly the weakest in a few years? Sure, it could be the next Derek Jeter or something, but it could just as easily be the next David McCarty or Todd Walker. I'm just throwing out names here, but you get the point. The Twins draft second overall, and will get one sandwich pick if Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel depart, or, obviously, two if both depart. Coupled with the pick they would have had if Capps signed elsewhere, that's a lot of money to spend to sign prospects in one year. If I felt the Twins were in a position for a deep and extended retooling, I might have more of an issue with the Capps signing, but I believe that the Twins should be making moves to remain watchable in 2012, with an eye on competing in 2013 and 2014. Accordingly, the loss of 1 pick, in and of itself, is not going to make or break this organization's future. Rather, what the Twins do with the 2-3 early round picks is of much greater importance.

This is a great topic for debate. Just like others, I found Matt Capps tough to watch last year. But, perhaps this isn't an awful signing. I'm curious what others think. Let me know in the comments.

Possible Kent Hrbek Statue Poses

2011-12-02T14:38:00.000-05:00

Charlie Walters of the Pioneer Press is reporting that the next installment of a statue at Target Field will be of former Twins' slugger Kent Hrbek. This makes sense. As Walters reports, Blyleven and Hrbek are the only players that have had their numbers retired by the Twins that have not yet been immortalized in a Target Field statue. The statue, to be located outside the entrance to Hrbek's own Gate 14, will, I imagine, be unveiled some time during the 2012 season.

This got me thinking: Tony O is set in stone with his distinctive swing; Rod Carew with that unique batting stance; Kirby with his Game 6 fist pump; The Killer with his explosive swing. So, what for Hrbek? There are some obvious choices: He had a memorable batting stance and a distinctive swing, both of which are entrenched in my mind. He played a great first base, and I remember several diving stops and picks in the dirt that he made to save what would have been hundreds of throwing errors over his career. Those, though, are the obvious choices. Here are a few others that come to mind:

How about the infamous Hrbek-Ron Gant play from the 1991 World Series. The Twins already immortalized it with the production of a bobblehead this past season that was extremely popular. Why not take it a step further?

If the organization is going for a moment "later" in Hrbek's career, what about the divot he created at Target Field while diving for a ball in the old timer's game. Here's the video if you haven't watched it. It's glorious. I can just imagine a bronzed, lifesize Hrbek on his knees, staring helplessly at the small section of the Earth that his rotund, William Howard Taft-like frame has just destroyed.

How about Kent partaking in this activity, which I'm sure he did both during his playing days and after his retirement?

If I had to bet, though, here is my guess. Although I was only 6, the image of Hrbek jumping at first base after catching the final out of the 1987 World Series -- Minnesota's first -- is seared into my memory. This would be a great way to immortalize #14, as well as the 1987 Series. Kent, this is a well-deserved honor! If anyone has any other possible statue poses, I'd love to hear them.

Ryan Doumit: Now this Makes Sense

2011-11-18T14:57:00.001-05:00

I wasn't too terribly excited about the Jamey Carroll signing. Don't get me wrong - - he's an upgrade. But he's no all-star, and he is not a long-term solution to the Twins' chronic middle infield problem. The Twins overpaid a little for Carroll, and he is definitely not what I would call a "difference-maker." Still, though, he should be a stop-gap between what the Twins have going into 2012 and what they hope to have going into 2014 in terms of homegrown shortstop talent. At least they did something.

Word is breaking that the Twins signed catcher Ryan Doumit to a 1-year, $3 million deal, with the possibility of more money based on certain performance bonuses. This deal is smart and necessary. Doumit catches and can play first base, and apparently even the right field, which is convenient, because we have health issues at catcher and first base, and our right fielder may be departing for greener, more easterly pastures. So with one signing and one roster spot, all at a fairly low price, the Twins bought insurance on Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, and are getting the flexibility of being able to rest those players on a regular basis even if they are healthy. Further, this hopefully will give Chris Parmelee the ability to get a little more seasoning in the minors. Don't forget -- he was a AA call-up, and has never suited up for Rochester. I expect good things from Parmelee, but most would probably agree that at least a few months of AAA might be best for his development. Additionally, Doumit should lessen the need for Drew Butera. Sure, maybe he calls a good game, but he has no place on the roster of a team that should be competing for the playoffs. To be sure, Doumit's 2011 line of .303/.353/.477 looks pretty good right now.

Terry Ryan was smart to make this move. I would like to think that Bill Smith would have made the same move (in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if talks had initiated between the parties before Smith was fired). If the Twins can get another few smart signings like this, I think they can have a respectable 2012. Admittedly, I'm not all that excited by the Hot Stove season. I enjoy reading what others have written about, and suggested for, the Twins in 2012, but just haven't had the desire to make my own offseason "blueprint." That's probably why I haven't been writing more often lately. But when the organization does something to fill a glaring need, that must be acknowledged. Well done, front office.

Get Ready for the End of the Cuddyer Era

2011-11-09T09:51:00.001-05:00

Reports are that Michael Cuddyer was in Philadelphia yesterday meeting with Phillies' brass and manager Charlie Manuel. This should come as no surprise to those who have been following baseball's hot stove thus far. The Phillies, among other teams, had expressed interest in Cuddyer early on, and are usually pretty aggressive when it comes to acquiring the talent they want. If I had to make a wager right now, my bet would be that Cuddyer will be suiting up for the Phillies next March, instead of re-signing with the Twins or going elsewhere, such as Colorado. Philadelphia is a good fit for Cuddyer for several reasons.

First, let's get the obvious out of the way: The Phillies spend money on the players that they want, they have deep pockets, and they will offer Cuddyer more years and more money than will the Twins. I had always thought that, if it was a difference of, say, $1 or $2 million a year, Cuddyer is the kind of guy who would stay in Minnesota just to have a legacy as having played his entire career for one organization. I think it's a safe guess that Philadelphia is willing and able to pay Cuddyer probably $3 or $4 million more a year than Terry Ryan would, and that the Phillies would go to a third or fourth year at that salary to land Cuddyer.

Second, the Phillies need a flexible player, and Cuddyer is nothing if not flexible. If signed, Cuddyer would see playing time at first base in place of the injured Ryan Howard, in the outfield of course, and perhaps even an infield position such as third base. As we know, Cuddyer can play many positions, none exceptionally well, but versatility with a solid bat is a marketable commodity, and he fits some needs for the Phillies.

Third, Cuddyer is a native of the Chesapeake, Virginia area, which, although not exactly next door, is about a 5 hour drive from the Philadelphia area. Cuddyer makes his off-season home in his native state, so he clearly has set his roots on the eastern seaboard. Though not the determinative factor, I'd imagine that Cuddyer views playing nearer to his home as a "plus." Aside from playing in Baltimore or Washington, D.C., this is about as close to a homecoming as Cuddyer could get.

Fourth, Jim Thome, one of Cuddyer's favorite teammates, is a new Phillie. Jerry Manuel, a well respected "players-manager," is at the helm. Cuddyer will not only be looking for a winning team, but also a clubhouse culture in which he would be a good fit. With Manuel, Thome, and others such as Ryan Howard and Chase Utley as seasoned Phillies veterans, Cuddyer would most certainly enjoy the the home clubhouse atmosphere at The Bank.

Fifth, and probably most important to Cuddyer, the Phillies are poised to win -- now. Their pitching is deep, players such as Ryan Howard and Chase Utley can practically carry the team when healthy, and the fan base is . . . rabid. It will be an exciting environment in which to play, and the Phillies will most likely start the season as favorites to win the NL East division, and possibly the World Series. If Michael Cuddyer wants to play October baseball and win a championship, Philadelphia might be his best bet.

Sixth, the Twins are in a very confusing state: They just fired their general manager. Are they rebuilding, re-tooling, or somewhere in-between? Are they going to surprise fans and get a couple big free agents, or are they going to be dumpster diving this winter? It took a confluence of events for the Twins to lose 99 games in 2011, and it's going to take a confluence of events for them to even have a shot at winning the AL Central in 2012. If the Twins were to match the Phillies' offer for Cuddyer, it would certainly be the only notable free agent acquisition in Minnesota this winter; Cuddyer might end up playing alongside rookies, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and some "pitch to contact" starters for the duration of his career. I'm not saying that things can't be fixed in Minnesota; I am suggesting, however, that if Cuddyer wants to win a World Series now, it probably won't happen in Minnesota in 2012.

So, one of these Sundays, don't be surprised if you open the Star Tribune only to find a full-page paid for by Michael Cuddyer, thanking the Minnesota fans for their support over the last 14 years. Cuddyer's a classy guy, and I wouldn't expect much less from him. And if the Phillies do offer $50 million over 4 years, I couldn't blame the guy for taking his 4 baseball gloves, media availability, and penchant for low-and-outside sliders to the City of Brotherly Love.

Re-Tooling vs. Rebuilding: Is There a Difference?

2011-11-08T13:54:00.000-05:00

Well, I'm back. Thanks to that damn storm Albert that ravaged my Connecticut town, I had no power for 4 days. Then, the wife and I packed it up and went to Key West, Florida, for some much needed relaxation (and electricity and hot water). Last night, I had a pleasant surprise when I turned my phone on after arriving back in Connecticut, namely, that the Twins did indeed make a front office move by "replacing" (MN nice term for firing) GM Bill Smith with Terry Ryan. Of course, for many fans and bloggers, this was good news. -- not that you personally like the idea of a man losing his job, but that the move represents a level of accountability within the Twins' executive ranks. Someone had to take the fall for 2011, and it was Bill Smith.

Equally as interesting as Smith's departure were Terry Ryan's comments concerning payroll, in which he indicated that payroll would be around $100 million for 2012. For those keeping track, this is approximately $15 million lower than the 2011 payroll. If this is indeed the case, it likely means that Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Joe Nathan (or at least 2 of those 3) will be playing elsewhere in 2012. It also means that the front office will be unlikely to sign a quality veteran starting pitcher, a marquis reliever, or talented middle infielders. Keeping in mind that about $38 million alone in payroll is devoted to the M & M boys, you can see that the $100 million figure will be easy to hit without actually doing anything to improve the 2011 team.

Does that mean we have again entered a rebuilding phase in Minnesota? I sure as hell hope not. The fans that packed Target Field for the first 2 years of its existence, and that will again in 2012 notwithstanding the horrendous preceding season, deserve better. Make no mistake: I do not believe that payroll should be decreased; rather, I think a modest increase is warranted. As Jim Crikket at Knuckleballs has noted, there has been neither a justification given nor an apparent compelling need to lower the Twins' payroll. It scares me considerably to think that the "lean years" could be coming back to the Twins after only 160 games played at Target Field.

It's one thing to rebuild an organization; it's another to re-tool for a brief and definite time period. Up until a few months ago, most of us thought that Kyle Gibson was going to be a starting pitcher in the Twins' 2012 rotation. That's no longer that case. Justin Morneau's athletic career is very much in doubt; for the 15th consecutive year, the Twins have no settled shortstop and second base; Michael Cuddyer is looking for a $52 million commitment during years in which he almost certainly will decline; Denard Span, once viewed as a relative bargain, is a question mark physically and possible trade piece; Joe Mauer may never catch more than 100 games in a season again, and the Twins don't have a reliable back-up catcher. If the 2012 Minnesota Twins are a paragraph, the sentences comprising that paragraph conclude with many more question marks than periods. And there are probably some frowny-faced emoticons in there, as well.

Does this mean the Twins shouldn't try to be competitive, to sign free agents, to improve the club in 2012? Absolutely not. Does it mean that perhaps some money that might normally be expended on expensive veteran free agents (like Michael Cuddyer or Joe Nathan) or other above-average players might be better allocated -- this year -- to things such as making sure you sign the second overall pick in the amateur draft? Perhaps. To me, it means that any deals that happen this off-season are going to be equally, if not more, about 2013 and 2014, as they are about 2012. It's a frustrating position to be in, as a Twins fan, and I'm sure as a player and a member of the front office. Re-tooling -- being competitive in 2012, with an eye on 2013 and 2014, I can live with; rebuilding -- cutting costs and perpetuating the stereotype that Pohlads are parsimonious when it comes to their ballclub, I cannot stomach.

I like that Terry Ryan is back in charge, but I'm unsettled by the payroll estimate he gave. If it's true, fans are in for a long winter. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt, which he deserves as a result of his track record. He produced more with less in the past, so I'm anxious to see what he can do this time around.

If the Cardinals Win Tonight, Pujols Stays

2011-10-28T08:13:00.000-04:00

After 2 pretty impressive comebacks last night, the St. Louis Cardinals forced the first game 7 of a World Series since 2002. All in all, it has been a good series, and it's nice to see it go the full 7 games. Tonight in St. Louis, Albert Pujols may take his final at-bats as a Cardinal, which, to me, is a scary prospect for the game of baseball. Sure, the sun will still rise if Pujols is a Cub or Marlin or Yankee (actually the world might end if he were to sign with New York), but I have always appreciated 1-team players like Cal Ripken, Jr., and, to date, Joe Mauer. I hope that St. Louis finds a way to retain Pujols for the duration of his career. Certainly by making the playoffs this year, and now being 1 game away from a World Series title, one cannot really suggest that Pujols should go to a team where he has a "chance to win" every year. For Pete's sake, this is his third World Series since he came to the big league club in 2001, and his second in the past six seasons!!

If the Cardinals win tonight, I think it's going to be extremely difficult for the organization to let Pujols walk. Winning the World Series will bring several months worth of great PR into St. Louis, will revitalize the fan base (if they needed revitalizing), and certainly would put some extra money in the organization's coffers through World Series merchandise and increased ticket sales. If I was running things in St. Louis, and if the team wins tonight, there is NO WAY I'm letting Pujols get away. Pujols leaving St. Louis only months after a World Series victory would replace one of the best sporting moments in the city's recent history, with feelings of anger and rage that, regardless of what actually happened in the negotiations, would mostly be directed at the organization. Quite simply, the great press that should accompany a World Series winning team would quickly, and loudly, become negative press over the course of mere weeks. The onus, if the Cards win, is on the front office and ownership to make things work to keep Pujols around. From the PR standpoint, can you imagine more momentum going into 2012 than the following scenario: 1) win the World Series in 7 games in dramatic fashion; 2) soak up the glory for a few weeks; 3) announce some time around the holidays that you have signed the best player in baseball to essentially a lifetime contract. If that doesn't make you want to buy a season ticket package for your spouse as a Christmas present, I don't know what would!

Pujols, too, will have his share of pressure not to leave. What is his justifiable reason for leaving the city that has embraced him for the past decade?? An extra $2 million a year, maybe $3 million a year? 1 more year guaranteed?? We're talking about a guy who has played his entire career in one city, who is undoubtedly the modern face of the franchise (no disrespect intended to Mr. Stan Musial, who is the all-time best Cardinal), who could break the home run record without the taint of steroids, and who genuinely seems like a decent guy. His family has become deeply rooted in the St. Louis community, and he has done great charitable work there. If the Cardinals put together an offer that is 85-90 percent as good as the best offer Pujols receives on the open market, I think he would be a fool to leave. Though it wouldn't tarnish his numbers, it would, at least to me, tarnish his legacy to an extent.

I think the contract that ultimately keeps Pujols in St. Louis could be an interesting and unique document. When Derek Jeter was negotiating with the Yankees last year, some in the New York media floated the idea of a legacy contract -- a contract that would pay Jeter, say, $8 million a year for 5 years to play, and then would pay him $1-2 million annually for the next 20 or so years to stay with the Yankees in a leadership role within the organization. Now, of course, this never came to fruition, but if there is a possibility of exploring such an idea with Pujols, I at least think it's worth discussing with his agent. If he plays out the next 9-10 years in a Cardinals uniform and retires as a Cardinal, you know he's going to take some sort of "Executive Vice President" type of role, like Kirby Puckett did. St. Louis would be wise to never, ever let Pujols get away from the ballpark. Did you see the way the fans still embraced Musial last night? Why not put it in writing now, so that everyone knows Pujols will be a Cardinal for life, even after his playing days are done?

Even if the Cardinals lose in game 7 tonight, there will still be a positive baseball vibe in St. Louis this off-season, and it's still going to be difficult, both for Pujols and the organization, to sever their relationship. I don't pretend to know Pujols, but my best guess is that he wants to get paid, wants to play on a team that can compete for the playoffs every year, and wants to use his celebrity to do good things in his community. Sure, he can accomplish those things in many cities (even Minneapolis!), but, barring a horribly low offer from the Cardinals' brass, there's no good reason for him to leave Missouri.

Joe Mauer, Malcolm Gladwell & Bill Gates: Success and a Confluence of Events

2011-10-21T13:45:00.000-04:00

I read Malcolm Gladwell's book Outliers several months ago. As with most of his other stuff, I enjoyed his analysis on the extent to which circumstance factors into success. Among other examples throughout the book, Gladwell focused on Microsoft's Bill Gates. I don't know much about computers, and I know nothing about computer programing, but I do know that Bill Gates is generally considered a genius and/or a pioneer of the personal computer. How did he get there? Sure, he was smart and had a knack for computer programming. But I'm many other kids were just as smart, or smarter, and were "gifted," if you want to use that word, when it came to technology and the burgeoning computer industry, and the majority of those other kids just ended up with normal careers. Apart from his level of genius, was there anything different about Bill Gates in particular?

Gladwell reveals a few interesting thing about Gates that factored, perhaps to a significant extent, into his eventual success: First, when Gates was in high school, his school happened to have recently purchased a new and extremely expensive computer, and actually had in place a computer club, both of which were extremely rare for the time. Second, Gates had extensive access to the University of Washington's computer lab, where he reportedly logged some 10,000 hours programming computers by the time he turned 20. When Gates was asked how many individuals had as much computer experience in the 1970s as Gates did, his response was, "if there were 50 in the world, I'd be stunned." Gladwell's point, expressed much more convincingly and eloquently than I could re-write it, is essentially that for Gates and many other extremely successful (rich and famous?) people, circumstance and timing were a factor in the mix; not that circumstance and timing were predominant, or more important than intelligence and effort, but that they did indeed play a role. As food for thought, Gladwell also noted that Gates, Steve Jobs and Sun Microsystems' famous computer scientist Bill Joy were within a year or two of each other.

So what does this have to do with Minnesota Twins baseball and Joe Mauer? Well, there's no direct correlation, of course. I haven't read anywhere that Joe Mauer had unique access to baseball training facilities, though I'm sure he did. And he wasn't born at an especially important time in the development of the sport of baseball. I was just thinking, though, of the confluence of events that brings us, and Joe Mauer, to the present day Minnesota Twins.

Two major things stand out: First, Joe Mauer was born in 1983, and participated in the MLB amateur draft in 2001. In 2000, the Twins finished last in baseball with a 69-93 record, and, accordingly, "earned" the fist overall pick in the 2001 draft. Between 2001 and 2011 -- thanks to generally competitive teams and the dividends of drafting early in the first round of the late 1990s -- the Twins did not draft earlier than 14th (That all changes, as we know, in 2012, when the Twins draft 2nd overall). So Joe Mauer was a Minnesota native, and was already a household name (at least among households where prep sports were followed), when he was draft-eligible, and his hometown team held the #1 pick in that year's amateur draft. As we all know, the Twins selected Mauer (over other notables such as Mark Prior and Mark Teixeira), and the rest is history. Simply stated, as when he connects on a 95 MPH fastball, Mauer's timing (more accurately, his parents' timing) with respect to his age couldn't have been better when it is compared ot the Twins' circumstances in 2001.

The second thing that stands out to me is the role that Target Field has played in Joe Mauer's Twins career -- or maybe it should be more accurately stated as the role that Joe Mauer played in helping the Twins secure Target Field? Or, maybe most accurately, it should simply be stated that the two are intertwined. In 2002, the threat of contraction loomed over the team, even as they played winning baseball on their way to the first of 3 consecutive Central Division titles. Now, of course a lot of ugly politics went into securing Target Field, but the fact that the team won 4 Central crowns in 5 years -- with Mauer playing an important role the final 2 of those years -- after having sucked for the better part of the previous decade, was important. The rest is history, really. Mauer became a very famous and well-paid All-Star, and the Twins got Target Field. And now we have Mauer for at least 7 more seasons, and probably for the rest of his career.

Mauer's connection, in my opinion, with Galdwell's Outliers, concerns Mauer's timing. To say the least, it was very good (up until 2011 and bilateral leg weakness, that is). The story in Minnesota might be a little different if the team was just a little better in 2000, and accordingly missed the first or second overall pick in the draft. Now, Mauer didn't play on the big league team in 2002 and 2003, so we can't credit him for the success of those teams, but 2004-Present is on his shoulders, good and bad. What if the Twins took Mark Prior or Mark Teixeira instead? Or Dewon Brazelton, who was the third overall pick and heralded by Peter Gammons as the second coming of Roger Clemons? What if the Twins hung onto AJ Pierzynski and didn't ship him off to San Francisco in exchange for Joe Nathan (and Boof Bonser)? What if the winning stopped after the 2003 season with no Mauer around which to build the nucleus of a team that was very competitive from 2004 until this past season? Would we have Target Field now? Maybe. Probably. At the least, it's an interesting question. And Mauer certainly benefited from Target Field. Without it, there is no doubt that the Twins would not have been able to afford his $23 million salary without gutting the rest of the team. Mauer's timing in arriving in 2004 on a good team, in later becoming the face of that team, and in later using that success (and the increased revenue from Target Field) to his advantage when negotiating a contract, again is nearly perfect (for the record, I have no doubt that Mauer, even if he had been drafted by another team, would have become an All-Star and MVP candidate, but it certainly is interesting to think -- sort of in an "A Christmas Carol" sort of way -- about what might have happened in the Twins' past, present and future).

Bill Gates had access to a computer lab, a new and expensive computer in his high school, and even was in a computer club -- all at a time when such things were relatively rare. It helped him become who he is. Joe Mauer had the fortune of being from Minnesota, and being draft-eligible the last time his home team had the #1 overall pick in the draft. Mauer was also placed onto a pretty darn good team in 2004. The Twins' play on the field in those pivotal years made the prospect of contraction difficult, especially when the other team to be contracted was the lowly Montreal Expos. Building upon on the success of those good teams into the Twins' new home at Target Field, Mauer was able to secure a "market rate" contract to stay with his team, a contract that would have mathematically been impossible for the Twins to offer had they stayed in the Metrodome. For Joe Mauer, certainly there is a unique athletic talent. Heck, I very well could be writing the same article about whatever NFL team Mauer was quarterbacking. But it would be remiss, in any full "study" of Mauer's professional career, to fail to note the incidents of circumstance and timing that factor into his professional life story.

Oh, Delmon

2011-10-14T13:25:00.001-04:00

Oh, Delmon, why didn't you play like this when you played for the Twins?

Wait a second - - you played exactly like this. I remember a stretch in 2009 where you were hitting the hell out of the ball, and during significant portions of 2010 you really led the team offensively. When I went to Baltimore in July, 2010, it seemed that every ball off your bat was a rocket, regardless of whether it was a hit or an out. But I also remember you flailing in left field, turning singles into doubles, and taking the strangest of routes to fly balls. In your hitting you were inconsistent, and occasionally brilliant; in your fielding you were both consistently dangerous and a liability, and also sometimes just cringeworthy.

I'm happy to see you having your moment in the national spotlight. In fact, I don't wish anything negative for you. It's actually nice to see an AL Central team doing relatively well (relative being winning 1 postseason game) in the playoffs. Right now, you're clearly in the middle of a hot streak, made all the more impressive by the fact that you are playing through an oblique injury, and are facing some pretty decent pitching.

But I'm also happy the Twins got rid of you (though I wish they had just done it when your value was higher). Those with more advanced metric skills than myself have pointed out, time and time again, that your fielding is so awful that, unless you DH, you provide hardly any aggregate value to a team, even if your offensive statistics are decent. If there's one thing that the 2012 Twins can't have, it's more weak fielders. So, I'm sure you will catch on somewhere in 2012, and are probably playing yourself into a pretty decent contract by the way you are using the national spotlight. Good luck, and hopefully when we see you next season you will be playing left field, and won't be in the midst of a hot streak at the plate.

Sincerely,

Twins Fan From Afar

Please Don't Take All the Power Away

2011-10-07T13:54:00.000-04:00

Watching Delmon Young do his best Reggie Jackson impression for the Detroit Tigers this past week has been pretty impressive. No, I don't wish the Twins kept him, but I do wish they would have pulled the trigger when his value was higher. Seeing Robinson Cano, a fellow named Goldschimidt, Ryan Braun and others slug baseballs all over the October sky got me to thinking about the Twins and home run power -- or, rather, the lack thereof.

As you of course know, Young and Jim Thome are already gone. In a good season, they each might account for 20 home runs or so. Michael Cuddyer, who hit 20 this past season to lead the Twins in that category, is a free agent, as is fellow slugger Jason Kubel, who, when healthy, can also hit in excess of 20. There's a very good chance that one or both of Cuddyer and Kubel won't be returning next year. If that happens, what will happen to the Twins' home run power, and what does that mean in terms of success?

I believe that, even if Cuddyer and Kubel go on to other teams for big money contracts, and even if the Twins do not replace these players with other power-hitters, the Twins still could be competitive in 2012, at least in the AL Central. It will certainly be a different style of baseball than we saw in 2010 (I'm discounting 2011 because, after all, the Twins were not competitive from day 1). We won't see very many 3-run home runs because, frankly, there aren't going to be any guys that hit home runs with regularity. I would LOVE to see Justin Morneau rebound and have a 20 home run season, but that frankly seems unlikely after what we watched in 2011. It's probable that Joe Mauer is going to hit more home runs in 2012 than he did in 2011, but I doubt he'll hit 20. I expect we'll see a lot of doubles from him; and that's fine with me, as long as the batting average is high. In short, with Ben Revere probably playing a starting role in the outfield with Denard Span, and with Alexi Casilla back at second base, if this team will work at all offensively, it's going to be based on speed, stealing bases, turning singles into doubles, and turning doubles into triples.

Here's an interesting fact, though: I did a little research going back to 1987, and every World Series-winning team was comprised of at least 1 player that hit 23 or more home runs (with the exception of the 1997 Marlins, the number would have been 25). Not surprisingly, many of the teams had multiple players with 20 or more home runs, and a few teams had multiple players with 30 or more home runs. I acknowledge that some of the years during this time span were marred with steroid use, thereby artificially bolstering the power stats, but even in the last several years, since baseball has been much more proactive in testing athletes, these figures are relatively unchanged. The bottom line is that you need a least 1 major power threat in your lineup if you are going to succeed. (By the way, the 1987 Twins had more power than I remembered: Kent Hrbek hit 34 home runs to lead the team; Gary Gaetti 31; Kirby 28; Bruno 32. Roy Smalley had 8 in 100 games. Smalley would have tied for 5th on the 2011 Twins, incidentally.)

A legitimate power threat gets walked at higher rates (assuming they have a good eye); a legitimate power threat has a direct and positive effect on the batter preceding him in the lineup; a legitimate power threat forces pitching changes; a legitimate power threat ends games. I don't wish to overstate the value of home runs. In fact, doubles and triples are generally fine with me, especially in a stadium like Target Field, where many players already have found hitting home runs difficult. But a home run is still a special, necessary, and game-changing part of professional baseball. Sure, the Twins have many needs to fill in order to have any chance in 2012, including starting and relief pitching, shortstop, backup catcher, and on and on. But without retaining, or acquiring, one or two power bats, it's going to be even more of a tough climb.

Mauer vs. Montero: Career Post-Season RBIs

2011-10-05T13:31:00.001-04:00

Well, here I go again. I couldn't help myself. I guess a byproduct of the Twins having an abysmal year was that I started keeping track, tongue-in-cheek (mostly), of a meaningless stat between 2 players that don't have much in common, apart from the fact that they were both top catching prospects and are expected to be great for several years to come. As you may recall, I charted the progress of Yankees' Jesus Montero as he caught, then passed, Joe Mauer for home runs on the season, in just a handful of at-bats. What can I do now that the Twins' season has ended, but the Yankees are still playing?

Naturally, I can look at postseason RBIs, a somewhat meaningless statistic, especially given the fact that runs have been at a premium for the Twins teams that have competed in Octobers past. Without further ado, here is the Jesus vs. Baby Jesus (thanks for the catchy title, Seth!) postseason RBI comparison: In 35 postseason at-bats, Mauer has 1 RBI. For what it's worth, his slash line is not bad, but it is not especially good: .286/.359/314. He has one extra base hit -- a double -- in his postseason career. This suggests that, although Mauer is hitting singles at an acceptable rate, and is drawing some walks (4 in his playoff career), either no one is on base when he hits, or he is not getting the runners in, by getting big hits, when it counts. Montero, on the other hand, just got his first taste of playoff baseball last night, where he was 2-for-2 off the bench, and recorded his first postseason RBI in his first postseason at-bat. So as it stands today, Mauer and Montero are tied in postseason RBIs, and Montero tied Mauer in 1 at-bat. Depending on the lineups for tomorrow's Game 5 against the Tigers, where presumably Joe Girardi will put everything on the table, Montero might see more action, and might have a chance to leap ahead of Mauer. I promise to keep you posted.

In all seriousness, though, this has been an interesting last 24 hours in Twins Territory. Joe C. at the Star Tribune had a good recap of a season ticket holders conference call with Bill Smith, where, apparently, Smith was pretty candid about the 2011 shortcomings, including awful production at the shortstop position, and Nishioka's future (personally I think his future is not on this continent). It's a step in the right direction, anyway, but I want to see this organization move quickly once the World Series ends.

Target Field: Is the "New Car Smell" Gone?

2011-10-03T09:50:00.000-04:00

From my perspective as a Minnesota outsider, I would still welcome the opportunity to go to most any Twins game at Target Field. Even if the weather is going to be unseasonably cold or hot, or if heavy rain is forecasted, I would still make the trip to Minneapolis in order to go to Target Field. I've been only twice - - once each season - - and I sat in generally the same area down the left field line, so there is still about 90 percent of the ballpark I haven't really experienced. I've never been to the upper parts of the stadium; to Hrbek's; to the Champion's Club; and have never sat in the home run porch or the right field overhang. For me, there's still lots to see. Even if the 2012 Twins play like the 2011 Twins, I would still eagerly go to Target Field, if not to watch the players, then to experience the ballpark.

I expect that I might be in the minority. Most Minnesotans who are interested in Target Field have probably been there by now. To be sure, if they were initially turned off by the high ticket prices and sell-out crowds, then this September probably provided them the best opportunity for bargain baseball. The last week of the season certainly saw plenty of empty seats, and you could get tickets on Stubhub.com for literally pennies on the dollar.

The Twins took out a full-page ad in the Star Tribune, promising to rally in 2012, and indicating that, although injuries played a role in the 2011 failure, the 2011 awfulness and disappointment would "motivate [the club] to a better 2012." I want to believe that. But then you read LaVelle E. Neal's interview with Jim Pohlad, which really sends mixed signals. On the one hand, Pohlad said that there were significant holes in the lineup, and that the Twins would be using the free agent market to sign one or more talented players (I assume, and hope, that signing one or more of Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel is not what Pohlad was referring to; I'm interested in talent outside the organization). On the other hand, Pohlad notes that the Twins are not a "knee-jerk organization," and that Bill Smith's job, in particular, is safe. Don't get me wrong: I didn't expect Bill Smith to be fired. But it wouldn't have disappointed me.

Look at what is happening in Boston (certainly the definition of a knee-jerk organization): Terry Francona, the man who broke the Red Sox' World Series curse and actually won it for them twice, and who got the team to the playoffs more often than not, was dismissed (or quit, or some combination thereof) because his players had an awful month. And the rumors are that GM Theo Epstein may be on his way out, as well. I'm not looking for the Twins to go this route, but if significant acquisitions are not made over the next few months, if the manner in which the team analyzes and scouts player attributes does not soon join the 21st century, and if the team has another clunker year, yes, I do want Bill Smith dismissed. That's what happens in the business of baseball, regardless of whether the organization is knee-jerk.

This brings me, finally, to my question: Is the "new car smell" at Target Field gone? Short answer: Not yet. There is still a waiting list for season tickets, and although I have read reports that several people are not renewing their ticket plans, I do not doubt that many of the 3,000-plus people on the waiting list will still want seats. Unfortunately, all the Twins have to do to sell out Target Field next year is have a respectable product on the field. They don't even need to win the division. For Twins fans that have been to Target Field plenty of times, however, it might be a different story. If the new car smell is not yet gone for them, I suspect that, perhaps, Target Field and the expensive tickets might be analogized to a brand new car that has been in a moderate accident, and, unless it is perfectly repaired, might never feel quite like it did off the showroom floor. So, although it might still smell new, it's tainted.

The Twins have the ability to turn things around in 2012. Aside from having healthy players, the front office needs to shore up the middle infield (through an acquisition, not through promotion); the bullpen needs to again be re-vamped; and something in the way of starting pitching needs to take place. I have read several times that not many good starting pitchers will be available, but CJ Wilson and Mark Buherle top the list. Why couldn't the Twins out-bid other organizations for Wilson? Sure, he's not Cliff Lee, but he's much better than any other option we have. In fact, the savings from not re-signing Kubel, and declining Joe Nathan's option (and thereafter negotiating a lower salary), could go a long way toward paying a top-of-the-rotation starter. I'm not saying that CJ Wilson needs to happen; I'm only suggeseting that an argument that the Twins cannot acquire a high-profile free agent for 2012 is patently false.

Taking out a page in the Star Tribune to apologize for the awful season was a good first step in acknowledging that things can't remain the same for the Twins. It was a nice gesture. As my good friend pointed out, though, perhaps Twins' fans would have been best served if the thousands of dollars spent on a full-page ad had just gone straight to payroll for a free agent acquisition. As always, actions speak louder than words.

A Picture is Worth . . .

2011-09-29T14:43:00.000-04:00

There will be much more to delve into in coming weeks and months as the Twins try to reconstruct their lineup, shore up the bullpen, and ensure that their star players have a healthy and productive offseason. I hope to continue to write regularly about things such as trade rumors, free agents, and my thoughts on who should start the 2012 season in Minnesota (Chris Parmelee??), and who needs a few at-bats in Rochester (spoiler alert: I'm looking at you, Tsuyoshi Nishioka).

But for now, I think this picture sums up nicely the Twins' season. While Evan Longoria was getting mobbed in Tampa Bay for hitting a walk-off home run to get the Rays into the playoffs, we had a similar walk-off in Minnesota. The difference being, of course, that Trevor Plouffe's walk-off single ensured that the Twins would lose 99, and not 100, games this season.

I hope this picture is framed and put in the front offices at Target Field as a constant reminder of how quickly things can change. It can be replaced with a different picture when there is again something worthy of celebrating.

OK, enough gloom. Only 4 months and change until pitchers and catchers report to Ft. Myers. I'll be ready!

Home Run Watch Update: Mauer vs. Montero

2011-09-26T09:30:00.000-04:00

If you're an east coast baseball fan, this was probably an exciting weekend of baseball for you. The Red Sox, plummeting by any definition of the word, were trying to hang onto their postseason hopes, and had the misfortune of playing the Yankees, in the Bronx. Meanwhile, the charging Rays played Toronto. As it stands right now, the Sox have a 1 game lead in the wild card.

But I have some more relevant news to report. If you have been reading this blog, you will know that, for no really good reason, I have been tracking the home runs of new Yankee catcher Jesus Montero, versus the home runs of Joe Mauer. Truthfully, I don't care if Mauer hits many home runs, as long as his average is high, and he hits doubles. Still, however, this is a fun exercise in what has just been a disgusting season for the Twins. This weekend marked a turning point in the Mauer-Montero battle.

On Saturday, Jesus Montero hit another home run (he actually was just a triple short of the cycle), giving him 4 on the season in 58 plate appearances (52 official at-bats). His slash line thus far is .346/.414/.635, and manager Joe Girardi has indicated that Montero will be on the postseason roster. In addition to the 4 home runs, Montero has 3 doubles; 7 of his 18 big league hits have been for extra bases. Yes, this is a tiny sample size, and yes, the league will adjust to Montero, but it is impressive that he is making such a debut playing at Yankee Stadium in the midst of a pennant race.

Our own Joe Mauer, on the other hand, was shut down for the remainder of the season with pneumonia. Mauer ended the season with 3 home runs in 333 plate appearances (296 at-bats). He hit 15 doubles, as well, and his slash line was .287/.360/.368, well below his career averages of .323/.403/.471. 18 extra base hits in 296 at-bats was not what Twins fans, Mauer, his coaches, or teammates had hoped for. I'm glad Mauer has already begun the off-season. Except for a few weeks when he was hitting the ball hard and recording multiple hits in games, it was obvious that Mauer was never healthy. Let's hope that Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span and others can get healthy for 2012. Unfortunately for Mauer, as a result of his inability to keep pace with Jesus Montero, I will not be making a donation to the National Institute for Bilateral Leg Weakness Research. Better luck next year, Joe.

Final Thoughts on Ben Revere

2011-09-20T09:08:00.000-04:00

Watching the top of the 9th inning of the Twins-Yankees game yesterday afternoon, I saw the crowd of over 40,000 rise to their feet and cheer. Say what you will about Yankees' fans, but they do know their baseball history and they have a respect for the game. I assumed that some sort of graphic had flashed on the scoreboard noting that Ben Revere had passed Luis Rivas for the most stolen bases by a Twins rookie, and that the crowd just had responded accordingly. I was wrong. It turned out that some Rivera fellow had something else going on yesterday, and the fans were applauding that.

Seriously, however, it was impressive that Revere passed the formerly-speedy Luis Rivas for this title. As NoDak Twins Fan noted today, Rivas played in 153 games and stole 31 bases, while Revere equalled -- then immediately surpassed -- that number in only 107 games. So where exactly do we go with Revere for next year? Should he get half a season in AAA to work on hitting, drawing walks and his throwing arm (assuming Span and others are healthy)? Should he be a 4th outfielder? Just a pinch runner and defensive replacement?

If you read this blog with any degree of regularity, then it's of no surprise to you that I think Ben Revere eventually will be better than just a 4th outfielder. Sure, his .257/.306/.292 line is not where it needs to be for him to hit leadoff, or even for him to be a productive offensive player on a team that should be competing for the playoffs every year. But it is a start, and there is room for improvement. I have not been overly impressed with Revere's bunting ability. He could easily add 10 or 15 points to his batting average, and to his on-base percentage, by becoming a more proficient bunter. Even when unsuccessful in their attempt for a clean base hit, good bunters also force errors by forcing infielders to make uncomfortable plays and quick throws. Could Revere, only 23, be taught to hit the ball a little harder to the gaps and down the line? I'm sure. Could he pick up something by playing alongside a healthy Denard Span, who has learned to become a good leadoff hitter by taking long at-bats and walking at a decent rate? I'm sure.

We know Revere's other weakness is his throwing arm. I have no idea whether that can be improved upon, or whether it will always be that bad. If his offensive skills can increase, however, the arm becomes comparatively less of a liability, especially if Revere plays left field, assuming, again, that Span is healthy in 2012. In any event, Revere right now is a better option for the Twins than Jason Repko. Repko's 2011 line is .226/.270/.286. Even though Repko has 2 home runs, his slugging percentage is still lower than Revere's. And Repko, though not slow, does not possess Revere's great speed. If the choice next year is between Repko and Revere for the 4th outfielder position, hands down it must go to Revere. He is still a prospect with the tools, and time, to become a better player. What we've seen from Repko is what we will get for the rest of his career: there are no other tools to teach Jason Repko. Why spend more money for Repko when you get a better player (minus the arm) in Revere?

I'd like to see the Twins spend some money in the free agent market this winter. Middle infield (surprise!), the starting rotation, and the bullpen all need to be addressed. A 2012 outfield with Revere playing left field and Span in center will not be the most offensively productive outfield in MLB, but it will track down baseballs at an alarming rate. Having Revere for just over $400,000 will free up other money that could keep one of either Cuddyer or Kubel, or that could be used to replace one of those players. Revere is an option as a starting outfielder in 2012, and at the very least, is a must as a 4th outfielder next year. It will be interesting to see the direction in which the front office goes this winter.

Twins' Opening Day 2012 Starting Lineup: What the Heck will it Look Like?

2011-09-15T14:47:00.000-04:00

I was just driving back from the post office, and was thinking about Twins' 2012 position players. It dawned on me that, by April 6, 2012, when I am in Baltimore to watch the Twins' season opener, there is a distinct possibility that there could be turnover at the majority of positions, when compared either to the Opening Day 2011 lineup, or even the current players that have been starting these past couple months.

Catcher: Starting behind the dish, Joe Mauer is essentially a lock to start the season at catcher, of course, but you wonder how long he will remain healthy. If there's one player, however, you can build the April 6, 2012 starting 9 around, it's definitely Mauer. From there, however, things get scary, and fast.

First Base: I keep waiting for Justin Morneau to bounce back to even 2/3 the player he was before his July, 2010 concussion. I really want to give him the benefit of the doubt, even as common sense is beginning to tell me that he may never again be an effective player. I met him earlier this year, and he was an extremely nice guy -- I want him to succeed. And if there's one player on this team that is both a competitor and a behind-the-scenes leader, it's Morneau. But what are the odds now, after 3 incomplete seasons, surgeries, and multiple concussions, that he will regain form? Will he play first base next year, DH, or will his brain and body tell him it's time to retire? I'm hoping to hear optimistic reports this winter from the Twins' beat writers, but right now, I have a difficult time penciling Morneau in at 1B next April 6. Chris Paremelee has look good in his Twins' audition. Might he make the Opening Day 2012 roster?

Second Base: Where the hell has Alexi Casilla been the past 2 months? I know, he's injured with hamstring stuff. It seems like it's been longer than 2 months, though. His last appearance was on August 12, and before that it was July 27. There was a period in May and June where Casilla really put it together: he was playing solid defense, and was reaching base consistently with a mix of singles, doubles and walks. Most importantly, he was coming up with hits in big situations. It was everything that Twins fans had waited for with Casilla. Then, he regressed. If the season ended today, Casilla's line would be .260/.322/.368 (slightly above his career averages) with 21 doubles and 15 stolen bases, in 365 plate appearances. Not bad, but not good either, for a team that is supposed to be competing not only for the division title, but for a World Series. What happens next year? Does Casilla inherit the job again, because he is somewhat cheap and showed flashes of brilliance, or do the Twins look at the free agent or trade market? In any event, if this is supposed to be a competitive team in 2012, I'm not content with just handing a starting position to Casilla again. I'd like to see the front office at least explore other options.

Shortstop: As I have written before, as have many others, Tsuyoshi Nishioka was a big Japanese mistake. The signing has been a disaster and a waste of $15 million. If I were making the decisions, Nishioka would probably open 2012 in AA New Britain to learn some fundamentals from the Rock Cats' coaching staff, who actually put together a pretty nice season this year. The last report was that the Twins' sounded like they were bringing Nishioka back to the team for 2012, but that he was going to need to prove that he belonged. Gardy wanted to see better play from Nishioka the last month of the season, but that's hardly happened, as, in a small sample size, Nishioka is 4-for-13, all singles, and is day-to-day with oblique issues. When he has played, I do not recall him exactly dominating on defense, either. Nishioka is no lock for shortstop next April, and the same can be said for second base, where he was equally disappointing. Casilla, though far from perfect, is both a defensive and offensive upgrade at either position, it seems.

Third Base: You would think Danny Valencia is a lock to start at third base in 2012. Sure, his 2011 was the definition of a "sophomore slump," but he is young, affordable, and has the tools to be a productive hitter, as we saw in 2011. But then again, he might be, next to Kevin Slowey, the least popular player in the clubhouse, at least if you ask Ron Gardenhire. Gardy has taken seemingly every opportunity to slam Valencia, for his defense, his offense, and his inability to concentrate at times. These are fair criticisms, but many of the same criticisms could have -- and maybe should have -- been leveled at other rookies, and even veterans, who seemingly get a pass from Gardy. Unless the organization decides to trade Valencia away, I'm sure he will be starting at third base next year. But who knows how much Gardy might lobby the front office to ship Valencia somewhere else? Maybe to St. Louis in exchange for Nick Punto???

Outfield: The outfield is a big mess for next year. The most likely player to start, Denard Span, is currently unable to play baseball, and is concerned for his future. How's that for an ominous beginning? Span was almost traded for Nationals' closer Drew Storen at the deadline, so clearly the Twins are willing to deal him, if the price is right. IF Span is healthy, and IF he is not traded, he will most certainly be starting. But where? When Span went down with his concussion, Ben Revere came along, and has filled in admirably -- at least on defense. Make no mistake, I like Ben Revere, but I admit that he's not ready to start for the Twins, right now. I also believe, however, that he has a higher upside than a potential 4th outfielder. If the Twins can somehow work on his throwing, and when Revere learns to draw walks, he will be a solid player. He is about to set the Twins' rookie record for steals, and he only played 2/3 of a season in the big leagues. Given the likelihood that one or both of Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel will be gone next year, as well as Delmon Young's recent departure to Detroit, there is certain to be changes in the outfield. I would not be at all surprised to see Span and Revere starting (but I'm not sure who plays center and who plays left), with either Cuddyer or Kubel (if either is retained) in right. Clearly, the April 6, 2012 outfield could, and probably will, be dramatically different than the Opening Day 2011 outfield. I like Joe Benson as a prospect, but I think, based on the short sample size, that he needs "seasoning" in Rochester to open up 2012.

These are just thoughts off the top of my head. I hope, and expect, that the front office will be making trades and free agent acquisitions. This is a team that doesn't just need to fill 1 or 2 "holes" to be competitive in 2012. Rather, if fans are going to be at all optimistic about next season, significant changes must be forthcoming.

Book Signing: Minnesotan (Sort of) Steve Rushin's "The Pint Man"

2011-09-14T15:10:00.000-04:00

I realized a few months ago that former Sports Illustrated writer and author Steve Rushin lives just a few miles from me. He's very tall, and is married to former WNBA star Rebecca Lobo, who is also very tall, so I figured I would recognize them if I saw the pair at the grocery store, or a local coffee shop, or something. I happened to be in a Starbucks last week, and saw an advertisement on the bulletin board stating that Rushin would be doing a book signing at Hooker Brewery (yes, I spelled that correctly), also nearby. An opportunity for beer, to interact with a tall, somewhat well-known somewhat-Minnesotan (born in Illinois, raised in Bloomington MN), and to listen to sports stories sounded great, so the wife and I checked it out last night.

Hooker beer is actually very good. Most reading this blog have probably never had it, unless you have spent time in Connecticut, or maybe parts of Massachusetts. They were giving out "samples" last night, which meant the glasses were small, but you could refill them often. Their Octoberfest is always very good, and because it was about 90 degrees in there, the Blonde Ale was a nice alternative. Importantly, there was pizza, also free. The crowd was, somewhat surprisingly, a little on the older side. As in definitely retired and perhaps living in a senior housing community. I did, however, see some younger guys that undoubtedly were Rushin fans from his days at SI.

Steve Rushin did not disappoint. His wife was in attendance, and much of his self-deprecating words focused on being continually outshined by Mrs. Lobo-Rushin. In fact, he was pretty hilarious. He discussed his career at SI, being the father of 4 and a stay-at-home dad, and his current work in fiction and non-fiction books. For me, the best part of his talk was when he discussed working at Metropolitan Stadium as a boy in the commissary. He prepared hot dogs and sodas for vendors, but, when necessary, his group would double as grounds crew, pulling the field tarp before and after a rain delay. He described this double-duty as: 1) unhygienic with respect to the preparation of food that occurred immediately thereafter; and 2) the result of Calvin Griffith being a cheap bastard. I was entertained.

As Rushin signed my copy of "The Pint Man" after his talk, I told him that I was also a native Minnesotan, and that I appreciated, among other things, the piece he wrote on Harmon Killebrew earlier this year. Upon finding out that White Bear Lake was my hometown, Rushin inscribed the book, To Andrew, of White Bear Lake. Go Bears!" He then promptly apologized for the Fargo reference. All in all, it was a great night. I started reading "The Pint Man" last night, and know that I will enjoy it. It's about beer, bars, sports, wordplay, and, perhaps, middle-aged men growing up just a little. I will review it for the blog after I have read it, but if you wish to purchase it, you could order it here.

Home Run Watch: Joe Mauer v. Jesus Montero

2011-09-12T14:31:00.001-04:00

I noted last week that Yankees' call-up Jesus Montero had homered 2 times in his first 13 professional at-bats. The kid, so far, seems "as advertised." It's like he's the second coming of, well, Jesus. As if the Yankees needed more to brag about, Montero homered again Friday night against the Angels, giving him 3 home runs in 26 at-bats. He has 6 RBIs in that span, as well.

Our own Joe Mauer showed a little power in the Twins' nationally televised game on Saturday against the Tigers. A solo home run gave him 3 for the year. Joe has 290 at bats so far, and 30 RBIs. Mauer had a good game Saturday, going 2-for-3 with a walk. If non-Twins fans or casual baseball fans happened to be flipping channels Saturday, they might have watched Mauer and assumed he was having the kind of season Twins fans have become accustomed to. It was refreshing to see him hit the ball with authority.

I think it's a relatively safe bet that Montero, either DHing or catching, will pass Mauer in home runs before the season is over. I pledge to keep my readers informed.

Now a few links. I have had trouble the past week or so coming up with worthy Twins content, but luckily others have not.

Seth Stohs has a great post today on the Twins' coaches, and suggested off-season managerial moves.

NoDak Twins Fan profiles the strikeout struggles thus far for one of my favorite prospects, Joe Benson.

Aaron Gleeman validly questions whether this might be the worst Twins season ever. I think yes.

Parker Hageman has a great profile of some possible 2012 MLB draft selections, as it appears that the Twins are on their way to a top 3 pick this year.

What's Left to Hope For?

2011-09-09T12:52:00.001-04:00

With the Twins officially out of contention for the playoffs, and with their inability to play decent professional baseball, I've mentally turned ahead to 2012. But because there is still baseball left on the 2011 calendar, here's my wish list for the last few weeks of Minnesota baseball:

1. Good debuts for Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee. Parmelee has looked better at the plate so far, but I'm hopeful that Benson will get it going in Detroit this weekend. I just saw him last week at New Britain, and he was mashing the ball there.

2. Health for Mauer and Morneau. If either are unable to compete, I'd just assume call it a season for them, and let them start their off-season rest/conditioning a little early. If they are healthy, well I'd love to see them hit the ball hard and far. I don't care if they fall in for hits, leave the ballpark, or are just loud outs, but it at least would be a sign that our sluggers can still drive the ball.

3. Ben Revere getting that batting average and on-base percentage up. There's no question about his ability to track down baseballs in center field, but it is fair to expect more than a .250 batting average. For these last few weeks, it would be great to see Ben hit like he did at all levels of the minors, and reach base at a higher clip.

4. Joe Mauer doesn't fall behind new Yankees' slugger Jesus Montero for home runs. It does not bode well for Mauer that Montero hit 2 home runs in his first 13 big league at-bats, and that Joe currently has 2 home runs . . . in 281 at-bats. I don't hold out much hope for that one.

5. Good defense. From everyone. Especially Danny Valencia. Nothing fancy. Just know how many outs there are, field balls, and throw with some degree of accuracy to the correct base.

This is a modest list. The way this season has gone, it's difficult to even be optimistic about 2012. But I guess that's what we do. And the best way to head into 2012 would be to finish out 2011 playing well, both individually and as a team.

What Makes an MVP? Verlander is a Compelling Case

2011-09-06T15:30:00.000-04:00

Some years there are no-doubt favorites for baseball's MVP awards. In 2009, for instance, Joe Mauer was expected to, and almost did, sweep the first place voting. He led the league in batting average, hit for power, got on base at an amazing clip, and did it all while catching, which is undoubtedly the most physically demanding position in baseball. Furthermore, Joe led the Twins' resurgence down the stretch in the AL Central, helping them tie, then pass, the Detroit Tigers and win the division. Where would the Twins have been without Joe Mauer in 2009? If there's an image in the baseball dictionary next to the entry for "AL MVP," I expect it to be of Joe Mauer, circa 2009 (contrast this with the image of "Joe Mauer, 2011," which I believe would depict Joe Mauer, a kitten, Tylenol Cold & Flu, and angry teammates).

2011 is shaping up to be an interesting year, at least in terms of AL MVP voting. Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays, Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson and CC Sabathia of the Yankees, and Adrian Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury of the Boston Red Sox, are all likely to receive votes this year. The player I want to discuss today, however, is Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers.

Verlander simply has had a dominant year, having secured his 20th victory before the calendar turned to September. Verlander has only 5 losses on the year, and his ERA currently sits a 2.34. As the Twins have seen, he has become a power pitcher. He routinely throws in the mid-90s, but when necessary, is capable of elevating his fastball to another level, topping out just shy of 100 miles per hour. Best of all, he can control those power pitches. When the situation dictates, Verlander has another gear entirely. Few pitchers have that ability. Verlander has averaged 7.5 innings pitched per start this year. That's where I believe a large part of his value comes into play. Otherwise stated, in an average Verlander start, he leaves the bullpen responsible for getting approximately 4 or 5 outs. And we know based on his other stats that, on an average Verlander night, he is pitching very well in those 7.5 innings.

Where would the Tigers be without Justin Verlander in 2011? The answer is likely not in first place. Aside from Verlander, the Tigers are a good -- but not great -- team. Don't be fooled by the Twins' failures against the Tigers this year. Sure, they mean something, but to me it's much more a reflection on the Twins' pathetic season than it is the Tigers' dominance. I'm suggesting that, in terms of importance and value, what Mauer was to the Twins in 2009, Verlander is to the Tigers in 2011.

I completely understand, and to an extent agree with, the arguments against voting for a pitcher as baseball MVP: they only play in 20 percent of the games; in the AL they do not contribute at all offensively; and there is the Cy Young award precisely for that reason. Accordingly, many argue, how "valuable" can a pitcher be, compared, for example, with Mauer, who when healthy is involved in almost every single pitch of every game, or a shortstop like Dustin Pedroia, who captains an infield for almost every inning of a 162 game season?

I get that argument, but in terms of value, Verlander has been so valuable in his 30 starts this season that, in my mind, it almost vitiates the fact that he is not an every-day player. He has won 70 percent of his starts, and has thrown 4 complete games. Verlander has an effect on the bullpen, as well as his other starting pitchers: Jim Leyland has the luxury of being able to overwork the bullpen (if necessary, of course) the night before a Verlander start, because the numbers dictate that there's a very good chance Verlander is going to leave little work for others. Furthermore, following a Verlander start, in theory, many members of the bullpen should be pitching on good rest. This trickles down to the starter for the next day, as well, who often pitches knowing that when they leave the game, it will be in the hands of a healthy and rested bullpen. How many times this season have Twins fans seen the domino effects of short starts and overworked bullpens? It feels like dozens.

I'm not suggesting that Verlander is necessarily going to get my BBA MVP vote this year. I am of the opinion that he is equally, if not more, valuable this season than Bautista, Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Sabathia, Cano or Granderson. Though he is not an every day player, it is naive to suggest that the effects of his pitching dominance -- and long-lasting starts -- extend no further than the 20 percent of games in which he appears. The Yankees, without Cano, could still be competing in a tough AL East, as could the Red Sox without Ellsbury. It would indeed be more difficult, but it would be possible. Verlander, with his 7.8 WAR rating (by comparison, Granderson: 5.1; Cano: 4.3; Bautista: 8.1; Gonzalez: 6.0; Ellsbury: 6.1; Sabathia: 5.8) represents such an important piece of a Tigers team that is good, but not great, that his value this year cannot be overstated.

It will be interesting to see how the last month of the regular season plays out. If Bautista keeps slugging, if Ellsbury continues his great season, and if Granderson continues to hit the ball all over Yankee Stadium, anyone could win this award. If Verlander, however, continues to dominate in his starts, and if the Tigers win the AL Central, Verlander deserves serious trophy consideration, and not just for the Cy Young award.

Go Brewers!

2011-09-02T12:35:00.002-04:00

Growing up in the 80s and early 90s in White Bear Lake, Minnesota, I never thought I would utter those words. Even during the "lean years" of Twins baseball, I remember trucking over to the Metrodome for Twins/Brewers border battles. Now matter how bad the respective teams were, it seemed like 30,000 + people would attend each game of the weekend series. I remember guys like Robin Yount and Paul Molitor, of course, and other names such as Julio Machado, Greg Vaughn and a young Gary Sheffield, for the Brewers. Playing for the Twins, some lesser-knowns like Allan Anderson, Tim Drummond, Chip Hale and Paul Sorrento come to mind. If nothing else, this was an intense, fun rivalry. Just as with the Vikings/Packers NFC North rivalry, you like one team, but hate the other. I was firmly in the Twins' camp.

Now, 20 years later, after suffering through an absolutely horrible and embarrassing season for the Twins, I could care less about allegiances and purported rivalries. As I have written before, I believe that rivalries are much more for the fans, anyway. We now know that the Twins aren't going anywhere in October, 2011, except where there is golf and beautiful women, I suppose. So, where to go from here? Well, I personally will be pulling for the Brewers. I watched them during the Twins' interleague series this year, and they looked to me like an exciting, talent-filled team that played with energy, and that seemed to enjoy what they were doing. A few weeks ago, I watched on the FOX game of the week as they dismantled New York Mets' pitching (not an amazing feat in and of itself, admittedly), and engineered a 9th inning rally to win an exciting, late season game. Their big sluggers, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, played important roles in that game, just as they have all season. Last week, I wrote about just how productive Braun and Fielder have been, especially when compared to the Twins' 3-4 combo of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. All of this, honestly, has made me somewhat excited about rooting for the Brewers in the 2011 playoffs.

Even as a Minnesotan and Twins fan, there are several reasons to pull for Milwaukee this year: First, their 3 and 4 hitters provide an example, albeit a painful example, of what we wish our 3 and 4 hitters could do. They are simply fun to watch. Second, their front office made a move for ace-caliber starting pitching when they landed Zack Greinke, an aggressive move the likes of which many have championed for in Minnesota since Johan Santana's departure. Third, the Brewers have their own grizzled veteran. No, he's not a slugger like Jim Thome, but he is Craig Counsell, and he just turned 41 last week. This is, of course, the same Craig Counsell that scored the 2001 World Series-winning run for the Arizona Diamondbacks to defeat those bastard Yankees. So he's 41 and a Yankee-killer. I'll root for that any day. Fourth, if you like the potential for team drama, here you go: Before the trade deadline, the Brewers secured Francisco Rodriguez from the Mets. This is the same guy that last year assaulted his father-in-law right at CitiField. When you add Rodriguez' temper to the fact that the Brewers already had a capable closer, John Axford, there is the potential for a little bit of team drama that could be very entertaining. Finally, this team is streaky. At one point in late August, the club had won 20 of its past 23 games. Incredible. Most recently, however, they were swept at home by the St. Louis Cardinals. If a streaky team is on a roll when the playoffs hit, they be tough to stop, even if, on paper, they are not favorites to win a playoff series.

I'm still a Twins fan, of course. But there's not going to be any Twins baseball in October. Rather than being forced to watch the Yankees, Red Sox or Phillies for the 40th consecutive year, or even the Rangers or Angels, for that matter, I'll be watching a team that, at least to a small degree, reminds me of what the Twins could be, or, more accurately, could have been, in 2011.

Book Review: "Odd Man Out: A Year on the Mound with a Minor League Misfit,' by Matt McCarthy

2011-08-29T12:56:00.000-04:00

I have a confession: I don't read for pleasure as much as I wish I did. My day job requires reading (computer text or written pages) almost every minute of every day. Eventually, it will almost certainly blind me. As a result, I don't read books like I used to. Back in college, I really enjoyed Cormac McCarthy, John Steinbeck, and a host of others. It's kind of disappointing, really. But, thanks to Hurricane Irene, Sunday presented me with no electricity, nothing to do but repeatedly mop the water out of the basement, and the time to read a great book -- a baseball book, nonetheless -- cover to cover.

"Odd Man Out: A Year on the Mound with a Minor League Misfit" is by a former Yale pitcher and 2002 Angels' 26th round draft pick Matt McCarthy. If you are looking for connection between McCarthy, Yale, and former Twin Craig Breslow, look no further: they are former teammates, best friends, and Breslow plays a rather significant supporting role in McCarthy's true life story of his time as a minor league pitcher.

Without giving the ending away, let's just say that there's a reason that you have heard of Craig Breslow, and a reason that you probably have not heard of Matt McCarthy. But this book isn't about "making the big leagues"; rather, it's about the strange journey there from the viewpoint of someone who could have attended Yale on academic merit alone. Thus, the reference in the title to being a "misfit."

McCarthy is not unlike many of the people who read this blog. He's exceedingly smart (I like to think regular readers of this blog are a cut above the rest), having studied molecular biophysics and chemistry; he's funny; and he loves baseball. Unlike us, however, he was a pitcher that was able to throw just over 90 miles per hour, and was a lefty, to boot. This got him drafted, and that's where the book really begins. The next 200 or so pages chronicle his first minor league season playing in Provo, Utah, for the Provo Angels, the then rookie league affiliate of the L.A. Angels of Anaheim. McCarthy kept an incredibly detailed journal, not only of his on-the-field stats and information, but also of the exploits of being a low-level minor leaguer. The timing of McCarthy's career is interesting: guys such as Prince Fielder, Bobby Jenks, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, and other "household names" of MLB, all figure into the book, as they came up around the same time McCarthy was playing.

I should note that the book has received a little criticism, as well. There are some fairly lurid stories involving now-major leaguers, a handful of R-rated anecdotes involving McCarthy's manager and teammates at Provo, as well as allegations of steroid use, which was at a peak level in the early 2000s, by some of McCarthy's teammates. Some names were named, and certain facts from the book have been disputed.

All in all, this is a great, quick read. If you're at all into minor league baseball, you will likely enjoy this book. If you ever wonder what guys on the Beloit Snappers, or Elizabethtown Twins, go through on a daily basis, this will answer your questions, and then some. If you wonder what low-level minor leagues eat, where they stay, how they travel, and how they bond with each other, this is a book for you. And if you simply want to read some funny, gross-out stories about what 18 year old minor leaguers do when they are bored, this will give you a laugh. Here's the link to the book's website, where you can find out more about Matt McCarthy.

Final rating: 4/5 stars.

Twins' Hurlers: Average Innings Per Start (Spoiler Alert -- You Won't Be Impressed)

2011-08-25T09:28:00.000-04:00

I was listening to the Colin Cowherd radio show on ESPN the other day, and retired pitcher Curt Schilling was on as a guest analyst. Schilling is always a blowhard, but is also equally honest, and even self-deprecating and humorous. I was living in Massachusetts in 2004 when the Red Sox "broke the curse," and even though I'm not really a Sox fan, I do appreciate what he did for Boston sports fans that year. Best (or worst) of all, Schilling always has an opinion. This particular broadcast was just a few days after Joe Girardi removed AJ Burnett in the second inning of a Twins-Yankees game, and Burnett had some, shall we say, parting words for Girardi. One of the topics of the broadcast, therefore, was getting taken out of a game as a starting pitcher. Schilling was pretty entertaining on this subject. He said that it always upset him to be taken out of a game, no matter if he was pitching well or not. He approached each start as if it was his obligation to throw a full 9 innings. Therefore, if he failed to complete a game, on some level, he was letting his teammates down and was failing in the task that he was hired to do. The bullpen, he said, was there not to pitch 3 innings every night, but to clean up for starters' failures. Interesting. Now, of course, it's great to say that you intend to pitch 9 innings each start, but we all know that's simply not possible. On the subject of Burnett, Schilling said that, in his opinion, Burnett has a top arm in the game, but is unlikely to ever reach his potential because Burnett views baseball as simply a way to earn a paycheck, and is unwilling to put in the work to become a star.

Listening to Schilling got me thinking about the Twins' starting pitchers. It feels like they seldom go deep into games. And by deep I guess I mean 7 full innings or more. What, maybe once a week this year our starting pitcher has gone 7 full innings? I can remember stretches where all 5 starters consecutively failed to pitch 5 innings, thus leaving our already depleted bullpen to throw essential a half game of baseball several nights in a row.

Now, onto the statistics. How do the Twins' starters fare in terms of average innings pitched per start? We'll begin with Francisco Liriano. In 2011, he has averaged 5.7 innings per start; in 2010 that figure was 6.2. Brian Duensing averaged 5.8 innings per start this season; in 2010 he averaged 6.6 (caveat being that he only started 13 games in 2010). Nick Blackburn has averaged 5.7 innings per start in 2011, and achieved a 6.1 figure in 2011. Carl Pavano leads the Twins with 6.7 innings per start in 2011, and 6.9 in 2010. Finally, Scott Baker averaged 6.3 in 2011, and 5.9 in 2010. The MLB average is 5.9 innings per start.

For their careers, here is the breakdown: Liriano: 5.8; Duensing: 5.9; Blackburn: 6.0; Pavano 6.2; Slowey: 5.7; Baker: 6.0. As you can see, with a MLB average of 5.9 innings pitched per start, those pitchers that were Twins' draft picks, or projects (basically everyone but Pavano), are all hovering right around the MLB average.

As a basis for comparison, what about Schilling, the man who hated to get taken out of games, and, on the air, made it seem as if he was always pitching 9 innings when he was in his prime? Well, I hate to say it, but the numbers almost back him up. His career figure for innings pitched per start is 7.1. Pretty impressive. How about this: For the 1998 season when he pitched for the Phillies, Schilling averaged 7.7 innings per start. That's right, on an average night, Schilling took his team to within 1 out of the 8th inning. How's that for leadership?

As another basis for comparison, how about portly, but effective, CC Sabathia. As of today, his average innings pitched per start is 6.7 But keep this in mind: In his rookie season with the Indians, that figure was only 5.5, but thus far in 2011, he is averaging 7.3 innings per start. He has gotten better, and more effective, with time (and I guess it doesn't hurt to play for one of the best teams in baseball that always boasts a powerhouse offense).

What do I make of these numbers? First and foremost, the Twins' starters are middling as a group. This is about what I expected. As a group, their ERAs are relatively high, they have not demonstrated consistent and continued periods of success this year (apart from Scott Baker), and, as a result, they have not been making it far into games. Second, I think this also supports the notion that some of the younger pitchers are still operating under some sort of a pitch count. Once they hit 5 and 2/3 or 6 innings, they often have thrown close to 100 pitches, and regardless of how they are pitching, they get Gardy's hook. Certainly this is no hard and fast rule, but I'm sure we can all come up with examples from this season wherein Gardy removed a pitcher, right around 100 or so pitches, for no clear reason, when that starter was facing no particular, imminent danger. Finally, I'm looking for a silver lining in all of this, so maybe these numbers give me a little hope. In his first year as a big-leaguer, CC Sabathia was no different, in terms of innings pitched, from some of our younger guys. Thereafter, he became much more effective and long-lasting. Of course, CC is a rare talent, but I guess anything is possible.

Joe Mauer on Base for Justin Morneau's Home Runs - - The Good Old Days

2011-08-23T09:51:00.000-04:00

Boy, remember when Justin Morneau used to hit home runs at the Dome - - sometimes 30 in a season - - and it always felt like Joe Mauer was on base ahead of him?? I think my memory is a little faulty, and I'm probably waxing nostalgic about the 2004-2009 seasons, but Morneau's production was pretty impressive during this period of Twins history.

Last Thursday, in the bottom of the first inning against the Yankees and CC Sabathia at Target Field, Morneau hit a bomb down the right field line, that appeared at first glance to be a home run. Joe Mauer was at first base, and the pair rounded the bases. It reminded me of the good old days, when M & M were healthy and productive. Of course, that particular home run was overturned on review, Gardy was tossed, and Morneau subsequently went down on strikes. It's been that kind of a season for the Twins: any positive energy they would have had after taking an early 2-0 lead over one of the best pitchers in the game, and against a team with which they have struggled mightily, was completely negated. The wind (apparently gusting toward right field) was taken out of the sails.

This got me thinking, though: When was the last time Justin Morneau hit a home run when Joe Mauer was also on base? The answer is July 3, 2010. Thanks Baseball-reference.com. Otherwise stated, we're closing in on 14 months since Morneau has homered in Mauer. That's staggering, really. It's not as surprising, however, if you are at all familiar with Mauer and Morneau's significant, serious and (sometimes) suspect injuries the last two seasons. This got me thinking about other 3-4 baseball combos, and the pair that came to mind was Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, two Milwaukee Brewer studs competing for the playoffs this year. By comparison, the last time Prince Fielder hit a home run that drove in Ryan Braun was Saturday, August 20 -- this past Saturday.

As of today, Justin Morneau has hit 185 home runs in his career; 181 of those coincide with a time period when Joe Mauer was also a big-leaguer. 40 times out of those 181 home runs, Joe Mauer has been on base. This corresponds to approximately 22 percent of Morneau's total home runs. I don't know whether that is a high, low, or simply average statistic (keep in mind this is just rough information; as we all know, there have been many, many times where one or the other of M & M was on the disabled list, thus negating the possibility of Morneau homering in Mauer). On first glance, though, it seems like an impressive figure to me.

Prince Fielder has been batting behind Ryan Braun since May, 2007. They have formed a lethal 3-4 combination in the Brewers' batting order. They are what Twins fans wished M & M would have become, or, more accurately, would have continued to be. Since 2007, Prince Fielder has hit 48 home runs that drove in Ryan Braun (and others, of course). That's a pretty impressive number. In fact, Fielder and Braun have accomplished this 10 times already in 2011. Keep in mind that, on his own, Ryan Braun has already homered 24 times this season. In fact, here are his home runs by year, beginning with 2007 and ending with 2010: 34; 37; 32; 25. As the numbers suggest, there have been many situations wherein Braun has already cleared the bases with his own display of power, and yet Fielder has -- somewhat regularly -- been able to drive in Braun with home runs of his own. Out of 175 home runs since Braun was also on the big league club, 48 of Fielder's home runs, or 27 percent, have scored Braun. So that's approximately a 5 percent higher clip, which is even more notable considering Braun's significant home run and base-clearing power. I take from this that Braun and Fielder are both exceptional hitters, and regularly display power with men on base. We could use some of that across the Mississippi this year.

There isn't a grand point to this post, and that point certainly isn't to level more criticism at Morneau and Mauer. If anything, I really just want them both to succeed next year. I was watching the Brewers-Mets on FOX Saturday baseball this past weekend, and of course Braun and Fielder both played important roles in what ended up being a very interesting game. I don't want to say that I'm jealous of B & F (that doesn't sound nearly as good as M & M), but I am envious that they have stayed healthy enough and have been productive enough to have put together some monster seasons. I'll be writing more about Milwaukee this week. I think they're my NL team to root for this year . . . .

Gardy's Role: "Field Manager" Only?

2011-08-19T08:14:00.000-04:00

Did you think Gardy looked a little more red in the face than usual last night (even before he was tossed for arguing the Morneau HR)? Do you think he took half a bottle of Tums or Rolaids when he found out that Luke Hughes had gone to the wrong gate and, accordingly, missed his flight to Minneapolis? As I have said before, between the quantity and severity of injuries, and the lackluster play by most healthy players, this has been a tough season for Gardy. Don't get me wrong - - I think Gardy deserves a portion of the blame. For example, we've seen recently that Glen Perkins is running out of gas. Maybe he needs a couple days off? But the manager continues to trot Perkins out there in high-stress situations. My question today, though, is not so much about the on-the-field decisions as it is the off-the-field construction and management of the team.

I was listening to Mike & Mike in the Morning on ESPN radio during my morning commute the other day, and they were interviewing a current or former NFL head coach. I didn't catch who it was. As always, it was a great discussion on the show. What stuck with me, though, were comments the coach made about the importance of the "coach" role in the NFL. This coach mentioned that, although he of course did not have the authority to directly sign players and work out extensions and such, he was very heavily involved in signing decisions and roster moves. As an example, he mentioned that the front office would approach him with the details of a suggested contract to lure a star player, the caveat being that the coach would have to decide if having this 1 particular star player, at this high salary, was "worth it," because it meant that the coach would have to give up 2 or 3 other, lesser players. From the radio discussion, it wasn't implied that the decision rested 100% with the coach, but it was clear that the coach played a very significant role in crafting the team's roster, and even had input in payroll decisions.

Of course, the NFL and MLB are not very similar in terms of operation, perhaps most significantly because of the existence of a salary cap in the NFL, and the lack thereof in MLB. And we all know that the luxury tax in baseball is really just a cost of doing business for some teams, like the Yankees. With the salary cap in the NFL, paying extra to retain 1 particular player could indeed directly impact the financial ability of the team to retain multiple other players. In baseball, not so much; though most teams, like the Twins, do have a soft "cap" of their own -- a level at which they are comfortable operating, feel that they can field a competitive team, and make a profit at the end of the day.

All of this brings me back to Gardy. We know he is respected by the front office and seems to be given a fair amount of discretion to make baseball decisions on the field. Unlike the Yankees' front office, I don't ever recall a Twins manager being called out publicly for game decisions. I'm curious, however, whether Gardy's discretion extends to the financial side of things at all? I'm sure that he is consulted on trades and free agent signings before they occur to get his opinion on the club's needs, but does it end there? If Gardy does have a significant vote in retaining players, how the heck did his darling Nick Punto end up in St. Louis making only $750,000? Further, what role does Gardy have in determining the September call-ups? I'm sure he keeps track generally of how the prospects are doing, but does he really have the time to know enough about the Twins' farm system to make educated choices on all the call-ups? Perhaps. On the Twins' website, Gardy is titled "Field Manager." This almost implies that his role is restricted to on-the-field decisions only, but we know there's more to it than that. I know there's an entire staff focused on player development, scouting and the like, but I think it would be interesting to find out how much, or little, Ron Gardenhire has to do with off-the-field organizational activities.

I give Gardy some of the blame for this year, and a lot of the credit for the few things that have gone right. I'm happy that, presumably, Gardy was finally able to get through to Joe Mauer that he couldn't only catch. We saw him play a decent right field last night, and he has been solid at first base, which is encouraging for the future. The 2011 Twins trotted out dozens of awful lineups at many stages of the season. That's not as much Gardy's fault as it is the product of a season lost to injuries. As we start to examine off-season cases like Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, I'm curious how much our "Field Manager" will have to say.

Twins' Depleted, Inexperienced Bullpen & Jim Thome: Now I Get It

2011-08-16T08:05:00.001-04:00

So it turns out Bill Smith does know what he's doing. We all knew Jim Thome was going to hit #600 this year, and that the baseball would be worth a lot of money. There was some concern that Thome might not be able to get the ball back if a fan, for instance, just wanted to keep it. Accordingly, the Twins had dozens of people at Target Field working the outfield areas when Thome would come to bat, with the goal of quickly finding the lucky spectator that caught the ball, and organizing a meet & greet with Thome himself, in exchange for the ball. But what to do when the Twins are on the road??

Leave it to Bill Smith to come up with a crafty, if not unorthodox solution that had totally escaped me: in-house options for ball retrieval; namely, the bullpen. It makes sense. These guys are on the payroll anyway, just sitting there in the outfield doing nothing until the 3rd or 4th inning, so put them to work when a Thome fly ball looks like it's headed their way! As luck would have it, #599 sailed directly into the Twins' bullpen, and #600 was deposited into the Tigers' pen. This made for a quick and easy exchange. In a matter of seconds, that priceless baseball was in Matt Capps' meaty hands.

Though it looked smooth and flawless in execution last night, a lot of behind-the-scenes work went into constructing this particular bullpen. Instead of focusing on pitchers that could eat up innings, strand inherited base runners and save games, Smith wisely chose to focus in 2011 on relief pitchers with three particular skill sets: the ability to track and retrieve home run balls; and the ability to barter with members of the opposing bullpen or fans; and the ability, if necessary, to physically intimidate those same persons into giving you the ball if everything else has failed. It all makes sense now. Even though Jim Hoey didn't work out as a pitcher, he's so damn tall that his vertical leap makes him an attractive bullpen home run catching candidate. So too with Matt Capps - - he may not be great at saving games, but if there's a skirmish over a home run ball with a fan, I want plump, stocky Cappy in there duking it out. And those rumors about the Twins trying to re-acquire Jon Rauch, he of the gigantic height, muscles and crazy neck tattoos, before the trade deadline? It all adds up. Well played, Mr. Smith.

Here's some more serious blog coverage of #600.

La Velle E. Neal from the Star Trib.

Nate Gilmore at Puckett's Pond.

Seth Stohs at Sethspeaks.net.

Sooze at the Star Trib.

Parker Hageman at Over the Baggy.

Matt Larson at The Bat Shatters.

If You Think Dick & Bert Are Bad . . .

2011-08-15T11:05:00.001-04:00

Many casual Twins fans seem to genuinely enjoy Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven calling Twins games for FSN. If you tune in just once or twice a week, or for snippets of games here and there, the truth is that they do a pretty good job. Yes, they are "homers," but that's expected. Dick Bremer calls a decent game, and Bert does have good baseball insight.

Of the Twins fans that watch almost every telecast, however, some grow weary of Dick and Bert's style, especially Bert's repeated sayings, such as "You are hereby circled," his dislike for the pitch count, his (up until this season) pleas to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, his general dislike for Kevin Slowey, etc.

Although I watch most Twins games, I think I fall into the first camp. I really don't have a strong distaste for Blyleven and Bremer, and I actually think they do an all right job. Admittedly, I never look forward to Blyleven's insight, and, to that point, Tom Kelly in the booth provided an excellent alternative last month. One of the reasons, though, why I haven't grown tired of Dick and Bert is because I am within earshot of the Yankees' radio broadcasting dynamic duo of John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman. Now, I understand of course that radio and TV are different media markets, but the Sterling/Waldman duo is as famous regionally in NY as Dick and Bert are in Twins Territory, so I think it's a fair basis for comparison.

If you haven't heard Sterling and Waldman call games on ESPN radio, consider yourself lucky. I'm not quite sure where to start. First, I'll give them a little credit: both know baseball pretty well, and they are familiar with players on other teams. OK, now the criticism. John Sterling is a moron. Aside from his trademark "TTTTTTTHHHHHHHHHEEEEEEEEE YANKEES WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" following a victory (length of "the" is dramatically elongated based on importance or drama of particular win), I find positively annoying his home run calls. Almost every Yankee batter has a Sterling home run nickname. For instance, if Brett Gardner hits a HR, Sterling will excitedly proclaim, "Gardner PLANTS one!" Here are some more: "Robinson Cano, Don't 'Cha Know"; Mark Teixeira has 2: "He sends a Tex-message!" and "You're on the Mark, Teixeira!"; Alex Rodriguez: "An A-Bomb From A-Rod!"; Curtis Granderson has 2: "Oh Curtis, You're Something Sort of Grandish!" and "The Grandy-Man Can!" These are just some examples. Presumably, each Yankee batter has at least one personalized home run call. In and of themselves, there's nothing wrong with it. But, for some reason, the manner in which Sterling uses these catch phrases just drives me absolutely crazy. I strongly prefer a classic "Touch "Em All," or something of that ilk, from a baseball announcer.

Now for Suzyn Waldman. She takes more of a backseat in the broadcast booth, but apparently was very close with George Steinbrenner. She famously cried on-air following the Yankees' loss to the Indians in the 2007 postseason. I guess she's unfamiliar with the cardinal rule that there is no crying in baseball. Additionally, she has been significantly, absolutely and overly dramatic on occasion. When Roger Clemens was visiting with Steinbrenner to announce his return to baseball, and the Yankees, here is what Waldman reported: "Roger Clemens is in George's box and Roger Clemens is comin' back. Oh my goodness gracious, of all the dramatic things - - of all the dramatic things I've ever seen, Roger Clemens is standing right in George Steinbrenner's box announcing he is back!" This, by the way, from a woman that presumably watched the first moon landing and Kennedy's assassination coverage. Just sayin'. Now, to be fair, Waldman apparently had a very close relationship with Joe Torre, and was emotional that the end of the 2007 season likely meant the end of his tenure as Yankees' manager. And, the Roger Clemens thing was, I'm sure, exciting for Yankees fans. But come on.

When you begin with a glass full of the arrogant and annoying (and very good at baseball) New York Yankees, add in a strong dose of John Sterling's personalized home run calls, and a dash or two of a potentially emotional Suzyn Waldman, you have created a fatal and disgusting cocktail. Consider yourself lucky if, as with most of Twins Territory, you are not within the broadcast of ESPN AM 1410 radio in New York!

In a way, repeatedly harping on Dick and Bert is sort of like contiunally criticizing a serviceable, veteran outfielder (whose name may or may not rhyme with Michael Buddyer): when there might not be a reliable, proven option off the bench, in the farm system or available via trade, and when this veteran done the job reasonably well, suddenly that career .270 hitting player looks all right. Sure, maybe Dick & Bert are average, and maybe TK would do a good job filling in more often, but I don't see TK as an everyday fit in the booth. What I have heard in New York actually makes me thankful we don't have such bozos on the (broadcasting) payroll. If you take a listen to Sterling and Waldman, I bet you might appreciate Dick and Bert just a little more!

M & M Boys: Together Again

2011-08-11T10:02:00.000-04:00

If I had the ability, or time, I would try to Photoshop an image of of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau holding hands as they strolled down a sidewalk in Central Park, bundled up to protect against the harsh late-fall wind; or perhaps as they clinked wine glasses in the back corner of an elegant French restaurant, leaning toward each other illuminated only by candlelight; or maybe just an image of them cozying up by a fire in a Northwoods lodge. It would have been great.

But you get the picture: they will be back together in the lineup Friday, and hopefully for the remainder of the season. Too little, too late, certainly. Nonetheless, this is good news for Twins fans. Morneau has been "killing the ball" at AAA Rochester, and was anxious to join the real club. Mauer, for his part, has been in the lineup almost every game and, though the HR total remains at 1, he has been flirting with .300, has been having quality at-bats, and has been driving in runs when there are runners to drive in.

Pat Reusse and others have noted that, since Morneau's concussion on July 7, 2010, the M & M boys have played in 9 games together out of a total 195 games. That is less that 5 percent of the schedule. If you're wondering why the Twins were again swept in the playoffs in 2010, and why the team has been unable to play .500 baseball in 2011, that might be the most telling statistic. Let's put aside for the moment the starting rotation, the awful bullpen that was gutted by Bill Smith, the shaky middle infield and the host of other injuries. The 2 former MVPs have both been shelved for significant amounts of time, and, when healthy, have rarely appeared on the field together.

One of the reasons that Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira have achieved success in New York is because, more often than not, they are the 3 and 4 hitters in the Yankees' lineup. With A-Rod batting behind Teixeira, it's not possible for opposing pitchers to simply "pitch around" Teixeira, as A-Rod (when healthy), is still a force to be reckoned with. Similarly, in Boston, as Twins fans have just witnessed, Kevin Youkilis is a great hitter, and David Ortiz still has pop in his bat. With Ortiz a constant power threat, and with Youkilis' ability to reach base, pitchers are forced to give league-leading hitter Adrian Gonzalez hittable pitches. They can't just walk him and know that Youkilis or Ortiz will make an out.

And so it is too in Minnesota. When healthy, M & M are still two of the best hitters in the game, and are just as good of a 3-4 combination as exists. But one without the other just isn't the same (sort of like Bert & Ernie). As good as he has been this year, Michael Cuddyer is not the same cleanup hitting threat that Justin Morneau was, for example, in the first half of 2010 (.345, 18 HRs, 56 RBIs, if you had forgotten). For the Twins to work offensively, M & M have to bat 3 and 4, and have to be healthy. As we have seen this year, the fallout from either player being injured and on the DL, or being significantly injured/impaired/bilaterally weak and still playing, is too great for the team to function for large stretches of the season.

Let's hope that the results we see in August and September, 2011, give us optimism for what could be next year. A batting order that begins Span, Revere, Mauer, Morneau, and either Cuddyer/Good Delmon/Free Agent Stud, looks pretty good to this fan.

A Job Opportunity for Jim Thome

2011-08-09T12:04:00.000-04:00

Jim,

Thanks for your service to the Twins, and to Major League Baseball, for more than two decades! Us Twins fans can't wait to see you hit #600 this year, and we thank you for all the great memories during your tenure in Minnesota. I know, though, that you're contemplating retirement after this season, and it comes as no surprise given that, at age 41, the human body can no longer do what it could at age 20. You have had a fantastic career, and no doubt are a future Hall of Famer.

If you do indeed decide to retire after this season, I have a job opportunity I want to talk to you about. No, it's not in broadcasting, though I bet you have some great stories and insight. And no, it's not working for MLB in some sort of ambassador capacity, though I bet you would be a great fit in that role. This is a real job. You would work for the judicial branch in my state so that you could play on my work softball team.

Interested? I thought so.

Let me tell you about the team and league. First, we only play 7 regular season games, and there is only 1 game per week, so the stress on your back/knees/legs won't be that bad. But do be prepared to bat often; I had 8 plate appearances in last week's game and accumulated approximately 20 total bases. Second, there are no called strikes or strikeouts. Let me repeat: you cannot strike out. You can stand up there and wait for your perfect pitch all day if you want. I know, you're thinking that this is a dream scenario, right? But the corollary of this is that there are no balls called, either, so you're going to have to earn your way on base, Jim. No free passes in this league. Third, when we have more than 10 players, you can DH. If we're short that week, though, we expect you to field a position. Maybe you can just stand behind the plate and "catch." Just grab one of Michael Cuddyer's 15 different position gloves on your way out of town; he won't notice.

Now, there are a few details to get out of the way. You probably noticed that I described this proposition as a "job opportunity." Well, that's because it is. Because this is a work team, we need you on the payroll. I'm not sure what skills you have that are transferable to the judicial environment, but I can imagine that you could thrive in a role as a mail room worker, file clerk, courier, or perhaps a bailiff/judicial marshal. The State offers a fantastic benefit package and pension, so you needn't worry about your financial security. Even though you're getting a late start, quick math tells me that you could be eligible to retire when you're 67 or so.

The other thing I need to tell you up front is that #25 is not available as of now. Sorry, but a clerk of the court on the team has worn that number for years. I'm not sure what constitutes a customary "offering" for a jersey number, but I have heard tales of Rolex watches and such. Between the two of us, though, I think a $10 Starbucks gift card will do the trick.

The team just lost its best player, who is moving to Chicago to pursue an opportunity at a large law firm. He batted clean-up, so the opportunity is there for you to step into the 4-hole if you really want it. I'm not saying that there wouldn't be a "tryout" of some sort, but if you play your cards right, it could happen.

I don't need you to decide right now. Our league doesn't start up again until June, 2012. So take your time. Just remember: excellent benefits and a pension with a 40 hour work week and several paid holidays; short season = happy back and legs; #25 "available" at the right price.

Thanks for reading, Jim,

Twins Fan From Afar

"When You're Down and (10 Games) Out"

2011-08-08T11:57:00.000-04:00

I had to look it up to be sure, but it turns out that Paul Simon was in fact not singing about the 2011 Minnesota Twins when he penned the lyrics to "Bridge Over Troubled Water." Phrases such as "When you're weary, feeling small," and "When times get rough, and friends just can't be found," might make you think otherwise, but it turns out there's a light at the end of the tunnel for the subject of Paul Simon's song. I don't see our Twins as having anyone to "comfort [them]," "ease [their] mind," or otherwise act as their bridge over troubled water. No, this team is most certainly drowning a slow death in a shallow pond of their own making.

Anyone who was at all capable of contributing from the AAA level has already been called up and has received significant playing time, or, as in the case of Kyle Gibson, is injured. Almost every single offseason move (e.g. posting for Nishioka, getting rid of J.J. Hardy in a salary dump, not trading Liriano when his value was high, gutting the bullpen) is now cringe-worthy. Simply stated, it's been rough to be a fan this year.

Nonetheless, I was able to watch part of all three weekend games against the White Sox. This was one of those weekends I wish I could have been at Target Field. The weather looked fantastic, the organization did a great job of planning and executing the reunion weekend, including the Hrbek-Gant bobblehead giveaway, and it had the makings of being, if nothing else, a 3-day respite from a subpar season. It was neat, as one who was 10 years old when the Twins won it all in 1991, to see many of the favorites from that championship team back in Minnesota. It was utterly embarrassing, though, the way the current Twins team played during this reunion weekend. The lack of offense, the mental and physical errors, the weak at-bats, the poor pitching. All in all, the Twins' sorry play (against a team that they have owned in recent years) did much to negate the good cheer and feelings of nostalgia that were present at Target Field over the weekend. I can only imagine what the '91 crew thought (and probably said privately between themselves) about the current group wearing the same uniform.

What I realized, seeing some of my 1991 favorites on the same field as some of the core 2011 Twins, was that our current crop cannot hold a candle to the '91 champs, notwithstanding that the level of on-the-field talent is not all that different. It is indeed true that I look at the 1991 Twins with rose-colored glasses, first, because I was a kid, and second, because they won the World Series. But guess what? Some of the 1991 Twins' underachievers got the job done. We forget that Junior Ortiz was 1-for-8 in the playoffs that year because he did a good job catching Scott Erickson, and because the Twins won. I forget that my hero, Kent Hrbek, was 3-for-26 in the World Series that year, because the Twins won, and he played a great first base.

What I'm getting at is that there are always going to be Drew Buteras on the playoff roster that simply can't hit, or Jason Kubels -- players that are good in the regular season but completely ineffective in the postseason. But the '91 crew had players that came to the rescue when it counted: light-hitting Greg Gagne's Game 1 home run; Chili Davis and Scott Leius home runs in Game 2; Kirby Puckett, of course, with "the catch" and "the home run" in Game 6; and Gene Larkin with a pinch-hit single in Game 7 for the win. These are just a few examples that come to mind, but we all know that there were dozens of key plays in the 4 Twins victories that, combined, turned the tides in the Twins' favor. Our Twins teams of recent years have been very good, but they have completely lacked the ability -- seemingly out of nowhere -- to turn the tides of a game in the Twins' favor, and to capitalize on that turn in the late stages of games.

As we start to think about 2012, it's impossible to predict, of course, what free agents or trade candidates could provide that "spark." But I hope that the front office has begun to realize that the status quo does not produce world championship caliber teams. With significant funds coming off the books after this season, it will be a good opportunity to begin to reconstruct a team that still has the possibility of being very good next year, but that most certainly needs an attitude adjustment. We need the next Torii Hunter, Dan Gladden, Kirby Puckett-type personality on this team, because we most certainly do not have it now.

A-Rod, Jim Thome & 600

2011-08-05T13:06:00.000-04:00

Between his arrogant and annoying off-the-field behavior, his arrogant and annoying on-the-field behavior, and just the fact that he is generally a first-class, PED-using, illegal gambling jerk, I don't have very much respect for Alex Rodriguez. Now, don't get me wrong: he is a talented baseball player, and I would like to think that many of his seasons were played without the assistance of illegal substances. But, we don't really know, and, as with hundreds of other ballplayers, probably never will. But I know enough about A-Rod to know that I wouldn't like to have him over for dinner.

A-Rod was the most recent player to reach 600 home runs. Living near the New York sports market, I can tell you that this was followed almost as much as Derek Jeter's methodical pursuit of 3,000 hits. And I'm sure you remember the national media coverage on ESPN surrounding A-Rod and 600. 3,000 hits and 600 home runs are both important and relatively rare accomplishments. Like others, however, I lament that there is not more national coverage of Thome's march to 600.

I agree that Thome's run to 600 may not be quite as exciting to the casual baseball fan for the following reasons: he is old; he is playing for a 4th place Midwest team in a weak division that has little shot at making the playoffs; and he is not "sexy" in terms of advertising and merchandising like A-Rod, Derek Jeter and other such personalities. But, damn it, he's our guy Jim Thome, the one that wears the lumberjack flannel, the one that makes Target Field look like a hitter's park, and we have a duty, as Twins fans, to root for him and watch as he makes history, hopefully at Target Field. For Thome's pursuit of 600 -- untainted by steroid allegations - - is a much more historical and important event for the integrity of baseball than was A-Rod's pursuit of the same.

When Thome does hit number 600, I'm sure it will be the lead story on SportsCenter that night, and it will probably be the headline on espn.go.com/mlb for the next day. But we know it's much more important than that, especially in this 2011 season that has been disappointing for Twins fans on many fronts. I look forward to what others have to write about in the coming days as Thome makes history. National media outlets may drop the ball on this one, but I have faith that our local newspapers and Twins bloggers will come to the rescue and give Jim the respect that he has earned.

2012: Who Stays and Who Goes?

2011-08-04T11:23:00.001-04:00

The coming offseason is shaping up to be very interesting, at least from the standpoint of Twins fans. Howard Sinker from the Star Tribune posted today on the subject of Michael Cuddyer's future, and other bloggers have begun to turn their attention to 2012. I guess this is what happens when your team has settled comfortably into 4th place and looks like it's not going anywhere. For what it's worth, here's my take on a few moves the Twins should make, and not make, during what will likely be one of the most interesting and active offseasons in recent memory.

Michael Cuddyer: Keep him if you can. Boy, he started off slow. Painfully slow. But he really has turned it on, and, as in past seasons, has filled in admirably at other positions. The Twins decided not to trade Cuddyer at the deadline, despite interest from teams such as the Phillies and Giants, and thereafter indicated that they would like to re-sign the "Magic Man." What will it take? I wouldn't pay more that $8-9 million a year for 2-3 years. Despite the fact that Cuddyer is leading the Twins in many offensive categories, his career has peaked. We have been fortunate that he has not been injured this year, but that will not necessarily be the case as he continues to age. If Cuddyer gets an offer of $10-15 million on the open market, and if he elects not to give the Twins a "discount," then he should take the larger payday and I wish him well. If he will forgo some money in order to finish his career in Minnesota, then I would like to keep him around. On the subject of Cuddyer, I'll close with this, which is something I have mentioned before: If Cuddyer stays with the Twins, and if they are fortunate enough to win a World Series during this time, I would not be at all surprised to see the #5 retired. The Twins reward loyalty, and Cuddyer's career (with a World Series ring) would be, in many respects, similar to that of Kent Hrbek's.

Delmon Young: A corollary to Cuddyer staying in Minnesota is that there would exist a surplus of outfielders. Delmon should go. Yes, this has the potential of being another David Ortiz situation, but I wouldn't bet on it. Young has shown nothing this season to suggest that 2010 was anything but a fluke and career year. And aside from 2010, the Twins have little to show from Young's four seasons here. Letting Young walk will give the Twins an opening in left field, which could be filled by Ben Revere, if the Twins do indeed believe he is a part of their future plans. It will also free up significant payroll room.

Matt Capps: Have a clubhouse assistant help pack his bags, hail him a taxi, and call it a day.

Jim Thome: Barring further injury, he will hit his 600th home run in a Twins uniform this season. Hopefully that will propel him to retire. Last year, Thome was a great deal financially for the Twins, and stayed remarkably healthy. This year, not so much. Not that he has been bad, but he simply hasn't stayed healthy enough to be able to make as significant of contributions as he did in 2010. Let me state, though, that I have thoroughly enjoyed watching him in a Twins uniform, and I think that the decision to re-sign him in 2011 was correct, especially considering the glut of injuries the Twins faced this year. I hope Thome retires after this season, but if he elects to play another year, I would expect him to sign elsewhere.

Joe Nathan: This is a tough one. He has looked very good the past several weeks, and is on the cusp of breaking the record for saves by a Minnesota Twin, a record he absolutely deserves and has earned through years of consistent great performance. The first question is should the Twins exercise his 2012 option for $12.5 million? I think the answer there is a clear "no." If the Twins agree, and buy out his option for $2 million, where do the parties go from there? Should they try to negotiate with Nathan to have him come back at a reduced rate? Should they just let him walk and thank him for his fantastic career? The fact that the Twins were trying to deal for Nationals' closer Drew Storen suggests that the front office may believe that Nathan's days in Minnesota, at least as a closer, are coming to an end. In my heart, I'd like to see Nathan and the Twins reach a compromise that would allow him to stay in MN, for something around $5-6 million (plus the $2 million the Twins would pay to buy out his option). My brain suggests that, if Nathan continues to pitch well the rest of the season, some team, somewhere, will take a chance on him as their closer. As we have seen this year, though, a quality bullpen is not a given, and the front office has some work ahead of them to re-construct the Twins' bullpen.

There are many more decisions that must be made, and I'm sure I'll get to those in due course. As you can see, the 2011 offseason will present a headache for the front office. I wish I had more confidence in Bill Smith to make "correct," or at least intelligent decisions, but what can you do as a fan sometimes besides hope that Smith reads Twins blogs?

Tsuyoshi Nishioka: Failure in 2011, Hope for 2012?

2011-08-03T12:07:00.000-04:00

I have to admit, I was excited when the Twins won the rights to negotiate with Tsuyoshi Nishioka, and, shortly thereafter, when they signed him to a 3 year, $9 million deal. It seemed like a decent price to pay for a Japanese player who, although not guaranteed to be a "star" in MLB, would likely be a good, starting infielder for the Twins. Back in March, I posted what I thought would be good first-year numbers for Nishioka: .270 batting average, .340 on base percentage, 25 stolen bases, 35 extra base hits. I envisioned him running wild at Target Field by hitting the ball hard to the gaps and down the lines.

Even taking into account the 2 months Nishioka missed as a result of the broken leg, and the fact that he was a rookie who would have to "learn the league," boy, was I wrong! As it stands today, Nishioka is batting .208 with a .259 on base percentage, has 4 extra base hits (all doubles), and is 2-for5 in stolen base attempts. As we all know, Nishioka's defense hasn't made up for his lack of offense. He has 8 errors in 132 attempts; his fielding percentage at shortstop is .967, while it is .923 at second base (where he no longer plays). If you watch Twins games regularly, though, you can probably remember another 10 or 20 plays during the season where a hitter was given credit for a hit on what should have been an error, or, more commonly, where Nishioka was out of position and it cost the Twins an out, thus prolonging the inning and further wearing down our pitching staff. Now, to be fair, every defensive player occasionally gets the benefit of errors credited as hits, and all fielders are caught playing out of position during the course of the long season, but, as with everything, it seems compounded in Nishioka's case. From the Twins' standpoint, things probably couldn't look much worse for Nishioka. In all seriousness, Toby Gardenhire's 2011 AAA offensive line of .262/.294/.333 looks pretty good right now. Maybe I'm being too critical, especially considering that Nishioka is still seeing teams, pitchers and ballparks for the first time as a result of his broken leg, but I guess I did expect more from the former Pacific League All-Star, batting champion and Gold Glove winner.

Where do the Twins go from here with Nishioka? They're into him for 2 more seasons and $6 million; I doubt any team would be foolish enough to want that contract on their books. The Twins, then, are in a position where they have to work with what they've got. They can't simply give up on Nishioka. To be sure, there have been some fantastic defensive plays, and a couple clutch hits this season, including a well-struck bases loaded double against Tampa Bay last month.

I would immediately send Nishioka to AAA for the rest of the season, not as a punishment, but for instruction and extended time to transition into MLB style baseball. There are times still where Nishioka seems confused by the strike zone, and his batting style of leaving the box as he hits the ball simply doesn't work for most players not named Ichiro. Nishioka clearly needs assistance and coaching, all of which could be provided to him, out of the spotlight, in Rochester. I'm sure Nishioka, as an accomplished athlete, wants nothing more than to succeed and help his team, and he simply is not doing that any better than could a career minor league player. But, he is relatively young, he is coachable, and he is a talented athlete. If the front office has any guts, this should be one of the first personnel moves as the team starts looking toward 2012.

Tuesday Morning Links

2011-08-02T08:10:00.000-04:00

Good Morning,

Even though the Twins had no activity at the trade deadline despite racking up some long-distance charges to Washington D.C., and despite the fact that the ball club was off last night, there's a lot of good things going on in Twins blogosphere. Here are just a few must-reads:

NoDak Twins Fan has a great recap of a special Twins game from 1986 featuring career milestones from Kirby Puckett and Bert Blyleven. That would have been a good one to be at!

Seth Stohs, over at Sethspeaks.net, is among the parties giving away a 1991 World Series DVD. Enter if you haven't already!

Jim Crikket over at Knuckleballsblog.com has some great photos from the Beloit Snappers, the Twins' low Class A affiliate here and here. Nice photos, JC! If the Twins have an opening for team photographer, you would get my vote.

Fanatic Jack Talks Twins has a good critique of the Twins' inactivity at the deadline.

Finally, everyone needs some humor in their day. The good people at the Onion Sports Network will make you chuckle with this one, entitled "Manager, Pitcher Go Through Entire Bottle of Wine During Really Great Mound Visit."

That's all for now. Let's hope the Twins can start marching toward .500 and shave a few points off their current 7 game deficit in order to make the last two months of the season at least competitive!

Sunday Morning Letter to Bill Smith

2011-07-31T10:14:00.001-04:00

Dear Bill Smith,

First, thanks for reading! It means a lot knowing that perusal of my little blog is part of your Sunday morning routine, along with brunch, "Meet the Press," and reading the Star Tribune. So thanks for that.

Because I know I have your ears and eyes for a few minutes, I want to implore you not to trade Denard Span for Drew Storen and children of former Twins' players to be named later (CFTPTBNL). I'll enumerate things to make it easy, and perhaps you can just cut and paste some of my comments in your emails with Nationals GM Mike Rizzo.

1. We already have a closer, Joe Nathan, in house. Sure, we don't want to pay him his 2012 salary of $12.5 million, but you can decline that option, pay him $2 million and then renegotiate. It will still take some money off the books, and he has performed pretty well lately. It's a possibility, anyway.

2. Glen Perkins can close next year. Admittedly, I really like the fact that he has been effective in many relief situations from the 6th inning on, and having him as the designated closer would decrease his usefulness somewhat, but it is at least an option. You want your closer to be your most "lights out" pitcher, and he has been that for the Twins this year. He would also be inexpensive.

3. A very good middle-of-the-field position player, for a young (albeit very good) closer doesn't make sense to me. As we have seen this year, the Twins need a couple things more than they need a closer right now. They need middle infield help, a better backup catching option, and deeper and better starting pitching. Sure, they also need bullpen help, but we all know that bullpen arms are relatively cheap at the deadline. If you were intent on shopping Span, he should have been part of a package a starting pitcher, a very good starting shortstop, or something else noteworthy that filled an immediate, gaping hole. Now that Matt Capps hasn't been closing games, the hole, though still somewhat present, is at least not the biggest problem with the Twins anymore.

4. Denard Span was on his way to an All-Star selection this year, he is a good guy, and, most importantly, is a very good center fielder. Ben Revere could be good someday soon. We have seen brilliant plays from him this year, though his arm is awful. And his ability, once on base, to do serious damage, is game-changing. But he is not ready, on July 31, 2011, to assume starting center field and leadoff duties for the Twins.

Mr. Smith, thanks again for reading. Just cut and paste these comments in an email to Mike Rizzo, or use them verbatim if you have to talk on the phone. You have my permission.

Thanks,

Andrew (Twins Fan From Afar)

Umm, Let's Keep Denard

2011-07-28T10:08:00.000-04:00

With the July 31 trade deadline, rumors are spiraling regarding a Twins outfielder. Not Delmon Young, not Michael Cuddyer, and not RF/DH Jason Kubel. Not even Jason Repko! Surprisingly, the rumors are targeting center fielder Denard Span.

If the rumors have merit, the proposed trade has Span going to the Washigton Nationals in exchange for Nationals' closer Drew Storen, who is pretty darn good and young, and I'm sure some other pieces. If you're like me, you gagged a little when you read "Washington Nationals," "trade," "Minnesota Twins," and "closer." Not that this proposed deal is anywhere near as bad as the deal that sent Wilson Ramos to Washington in exchange for Matt "belt high fastball or slider without movement down the middle of the plate" Capps, but if there's one team out of all the teams that maybe I don't want to make a deal with this year (unless the package is overwhelming), it's the Washington Nationals.

Of all our outfielders, the one to keep is Denard Span. Sure, he's injured now with a concussion, and there are no guarantees about his recovery. But it sounds like he's on the mend. Denard is still relatively young; he is signed to a team-friendly contract (5 years, $16.5 million); he is an above-average center fielder; he has the makeup of a very good leadoff hitter; he has good speed; he was having an All-Star 2011 season before his injury; by all measures, he has been an outstanding Twins citizen; and he seems like basically a nice guy. He is the piece of the outfield to build around for the next few years.

I have gone on the record indicating that I like Ben Revere's future in Minnesota, and I still stand by that statement. Yes, he has slowed down recently, with a pretty big slump and some defensive miscues. Let's not forget, though, that he is 23 and still seeing "the league" for the first time. If, in another year or two, he's still not drawing walks and hitting for a better average, maybe it will be time to pass him along to another team, but I like his upside. Instead of listening to offers for Span (unless, again, those offers are overwhelmingly great), the Twins should be listening to offers for Young or Kubel, if they really have no intention of signing either player after 2011. And Jason Repko.

But again, the Twins don't need to sell these players in exchange for scrap metal right now. The team is still in the hunt somehow, attendance is still solid at Target Field and will continue to be, so, unlike teams like Kansas City or Baltimore that are forced financially to give up each August, the Twins are not in such a situation. The bottom line is that Denard Span should not be moved unless the package is so great that it actually makes the Twins better in 2011. To be better in 2011, whomever the Twins receive would have to more than make up for the difference between having Span in CF, and having Revere there in his place.

I don't see such a package in the proposed Storen-Span trade, especially because Storen would only pitch 1 inning in games that the Twins are winning by 3 or fewer runs, whereas any every day player, and especially a center fielder that is also your leadoff hitter, will make thousands of more significant contributions during the course of a 162 game season. In the end, I hope that this particular trade rumor is just that, a rumor.

A Big Day for # 28

2011-07-22T14:49:00.001-04:00

This weekend, Bert Blyleven will officially be enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, NY. Most of us Twins fans have been clamoring for his induction for years now, as has Bert himself. The truth of the matter is that his election was a long time coming--way too long, in fact. I'm no sabermatrician--in fact I'm not even really advanced when it comes to traditional baseball stats--but Blyleven's peripheral numbers, when viewed through the lens of the many subpar teams he played for, made him a shoo-in in my book.

Think for a second about where Bert, if he were in his prime in 2011, would be on the Twins' depth chart. There is no argument he would be our ace. In fact, his services would be right up there in terms of demand with pitchers such as Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia and Roy Halladay. And, maybe, that fellow from Detroit named Verlander who seems to be pretty good at throwing a baseball this year.

Perhaps a better analogy is Zack Greinke. He earned a Cy Young award in 2009 for winning only 16 games for the hapless Kansas City Royals. Greinke is representative of the sea change that has taken place in baseball statistics and voting for awards: no longer are wins the dominant statistic for pitchers. Greinke's case suggests that if the statistics available today were available (and relied upon) when Blyleven played, there likely would have been Cy Young awards and more All-Star teams for Blyleven.

I wrote this in 2009 for the Star Tribune in support of Blyleven. It was by no means groundbreaking or well researched, but I was, by that time, getting very irritated as each year passed without receiving the requisite number of votes. I realized immediately after writing that letter, however, that I wrote it to the wrong audience: everyone in Minnesota knew about Blyleven, and I'm sure all HOF voters with any Minnesota connection were already voting for him in the first place. It was the old-time, East Cost voters that likely thought that Blyleven wasn't worthy, whether it was a result of not achieving the magic 300th victory, only having made 2 All-Star teams, or having surrendered many home runs. The next year, 2010, I tried to submit better-researched and more convincing letters/op-eds to east coast papers and sporting publications, to no avail. All else being equal, I'm sure if Bert had been a (you pick the major market team from the east coast), his plight would have attracted much more attention, and the fantastic work of Rich Lederer would not have been necessary.

But this isn't a post to complain about the inequities of the Hall of Fame voters. Hall of Fame voting is goofy and steeped in strange traditions--sort of like electing a Pope. This post is to celebrate Bert. I had the good fortune of meeting Bert when I was a kid at spring training in Ft. Myers. Ironically, it was in 1993, the year that Bert returned to MN, but failed to make the Twins out of camp, and subsequently retired. We saw him in the parking lot waiting for a ride. I shook his hand and said I was a big fan. He was as nice as he comes across on the FSN broadcasts where he makes his "second" career. Now, Bert will be waiting for a ride from the Otesaga Resort Hotel to take him to the Hall of Fame, where he will add another Twins hat to the collection. Congrats, Bert.

Summer baseball, a team in contention playing a division rival, and a Twins player getting inducted into the Hall of Fame: a good weekend to be a Twins fan.

Cuddyer's Gamble: The Right Play at the Right Time

2011-07-20T11:19:00.000-04:00

We all saw it last night. 1 out, bases loaded, bottom of the 9th inning and the Twins losing 1-0. Danny Valencia hits something between a traditional bloop single and a fly ball down the left field line. The surprise was not so much that Mauer scored but, rather, that Michael Cuddyer, who was on second base, began running hard toward third a mere split-second after contact, and was able to score the game-winning run relatively easily.

Michael Rand at the Star Tribune liked Cuddyer's play. La Velle E. Neal had great post game quotes from Cuddyer regarding his base running, most notably: Cuddyer's knowledge that the left fielder, Luis Valbuena, was, in reality, a second baseman; that Valbuena was playing deep no-doubles defense; and that Valbuena was an inexperienced outfielder. You have to wonder how much Cuddyer was able to process in the time period he was standing on second base, but, given those statements, it's hard to fault the guy for taking a gamble. Perhaps the Twins even had a discussion on the bench when Valbuena entered the game in left field?

My take on Cuddyer's gamble last night is that it was correct for another reason aside from Cuddyer's knowledge of the left field situation: The way the Twins' offense has been scuffling since the All-Star break (pathetic is a word that comes to mind), what are the odds that yet another batter is going to reach base successfully or somehow drive in another run? Otherwise stated, the Twins had loaded the bases as a result of Mauer's walk, Cuddyer's ground-ball single, and an intentional walk to Jim Thome. There was one out, and batting was Danny Valencia, who, despite having a disappointing season, was 7-for-15 with the bases loaded. He presented the best opportunity for the Twins to score one or two runs. Valencia was the fourth straight runner to reach base against an otherwise very good closer. That doesn't happen too often.

Had Cuddyer stopped at third on the single, after Valencia in the batting order would have been Delmon Young, and then Nishioka. If this had this been July, 2010, I would have wanted Young up in that position. But not this year. Similarly, I have little doubt that Nishioka would not have come through. Maybe next year, maybe even later this season, he will be a better player. But for right now, I don't want him up in any clutch situation. Further, the Twins had already depleted their thin bench by giving Trevor Plouffe Drew Butera's spot in the lineup and having Luke Hughes pinch-run for Jim Thome.

Imagine if Valencia's hit had instead been a sacrifice fly to left field that scored Mauer, or even a short fly ball that didn't score anyone. Under the first scenario, the game would have been tied with 2 outs, and runners on first and second; under the second scenario, the Twins would still have the bases loaded and still be losing. Under either situation, however, 2 disappointing hitters would be due up, only one of whom Twins fans have ever had confidence in, and that was a relatively short period of time one year ago.

The conclusion: The Twins' best chance to win the game was in Danny Valencia's bases-loaded at-bat. Though it was a gutsy play on Cuddyer's part to take off, he clearly had assessed the situation, and I'm sure, internally, knew that Valencia was the best bet, and it worked out.

Doubleheaders = Greatness

2011-07-18T08:19:00.000-04:00

I wish that MLB would begin to schedule doubleheaders as a regular part of baseball. In the beginning, I'd settle for even once a year. Just imagine, for example, 4th of July weekend. The Twins are home at Target Field, American flags are everywhere, the players sporting their patriotic hats; perhaps there's even a military flyover. The Twins are scheduled to play 2 games against the White Sox (or maybe even our old border rivals the Brewers). Aside from the postseason, I can't think of a better day to go to the ballpark. And, under my plan, this wouldn't just take place in Minnesota. It would be a "National Doubleheader Day," more or less. Naturally, it would switch from year to year, so the Twins would be on the road, hopefully playing another rival, the following year.

I certainly understand the reasons against scheduled doubleheaders, the first of which is financial. Back "in the day," one cheap ticket would get you in for the entire day of baseball action. Now, there's little chance that ownership would want to lose 1/82 of revenue just for a feel-good, nostalgic event. Similarly, I'm quite sure that the players do not get too excited to play back-to-back games, especially in the summer when temperatures can hit triple digits across the much of the country.

What I propose, then, is the following financial structure: Instead of paying, for example, $50 for a seat to one game at Target Field, the cost of that seat for the doubleheader should be $80 or, at the most, $90. Under this structure, the fans are getting the perceived benefit of saving a little money, when compared to the cost of purchasing 2 tickets to separate games. And although the ownership is eating that $10 or $20 per ticket, a portion of that will be made up in concession and merchandise sales. Not only will there be food, liquor and merchandise revenue from two games, but there will also be at least a small bump in sales during the time period between the two games. People might take that hour to mill around the park, and perhaps eat at a restaurant such as Hrbek's that they haven't tried before, or stop in at the team's official merchandise shop. In short, I don't think the financial losses, if they exist at all, would be noteworthy to ownership. Although I don't anticipate Bud Selig checking out my blog and bringing this up at the next ownership meeting, my only real point is that I don't think the financials of a scheduled doubleheader, which are perceived as the largest obstacle, are really an insurmountable problem. There can be creative solutions and marketing strategies that could result in a big payday for teams.

Today and tonight, I'm excited for the doubleheader. For the afternoon game, I'll just be periodically checking the score on espn.com, but I'll be able to watch tonight. This is a good time to be a Twins fan: the team is back in the hunt, players that we need to succeed are beginning to show signs of life (Mauer, Young), and they have just completed the first small goal (that I had set for them, anyway), which was winning the first series after the All-Star break.

Tempered Excitement

2011-07-14T12:25:00.001-04:00

The next 12 games, over the span of only 11 days, should tell us a lot about the 2011 Twins' chances. A 6 win, 6 loss split will still leave them significantly under the .500 mark, but would not kill them. A 4 win, 8 loss record will likely categorize them as sellers, it being probable in such a case that teams such as the Indians or Tigers had walked over Minnesota in their respective series. On the other hand, winning the next 3 series would give the Twins, at worst, a 9-3 record; even winning 2 series and splitting one would be a solid 8-4 start to the second half. It would demonstrate that the spark the team showed leading up to the break has not dwindled, and that the team should be looking for missing parts, rather than selling their important parts.

I think the most important game of this homestand is tonight, against the Royals. Sure, they Royals are the only team in the AL Central that's not in contention, but for Minnesota, this is a game about sending a message. Francisco Liriano goes up against Bruce Chen, who is not a bad lefty. A win tonight could exemplify the following: a home victory; a victory against a divisional opponent; a solid performance by Liriano. These are three major keys to second-half success for the Twins.

I'm excited (cautiously) about the second half. In early June, it appeared that the Twins weren't even going to be playing meaningful games down the stretch. But here we are, with a decent chance to overcome a horrendous start. Nishioka is beginning to hit, although he still looks uncomfortable from the left side. Denard Span should be coming back soon. Delmon Young will be back, and he needs to step up immediately, as he did in the second half of 2010. Jason Kubel hopefully will return sooner than later. His formidable presence in the lineup, and the solid stats he put up until his foot injury, have been missed.

Joe Mauer, though still lacking power, had been hitting for average in the days leading up to the All-Star break. If the Twins intend on making a run, it begins and ends with Mauer. Will we see "Hobbled Joe" batting .235 and dribbling out to second base, only able to play in slightly more than 60 percent of games, will we see "Average Joe line-drive-to-left-center Mauer" that can bat .315 with some doubles, or will we see "Contract Joe" of 2009, hitting the ball with authority everywhere? My guess is that it's going to be a mix of the "Hobbled Joe" and the "Average Joe." Until/unless he gets his left leg strength back, I don't see much power in his 2011 future. I would love to be wrong on this, though.

Many things have to go right for the Twins to come back and win. Just because it has happened in years past, such as in 2009, doesn't mean it will happen this year. It starts and ends with winning ballgames against divisional opponents, and the test begins tonight.