tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4902093917256814919.post2129278044846425127..comments2023-11-12T06:43:15.351-05:00Comments on Twins Fan From Afar: Lock Up Francisco Liriano: Now is the TimeAndrewhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01193037924987429075noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4902093917256814919.post-76879176954925398422012-01-09T10:48:55.788-05:002012-01-09T10:48:55.788-05:00I would prefer some performance incentives in the ...I would prefer some performance incentives in the deal (perhaps innings pitches), to motivate Liriano. Perhaps base salaries of 7-8 million with incentives for 2-3 million? That for three years would be great.Nickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17915504387375208114noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4902093917256814919.post-57915486335921056682012-01-06T12:09:10.442-05:002012-01-06T12:09:10.442-05:00Thanks for the comments. Jesse, I definitely agree...Thanks for the comments. Jesse, I definitely agree that the Mauer and Liriano "buy low" situations are very different because, well, Mauer has been much more consistent.<br /><br />It's a tough call. After reading all the comments, I feel like the Twins might be damned either way: if they let him go after 2012, or trade him, and he finds success, he'll be the next in the list of Twins' pitchers that got away (though fans should probably take note of what Johan Santana has done, or not done, in a Mets' uniform for the past few seasons).<br /><br />I definitely think I was a little off-base suggesting $9-10 million/season. I like Eric's suggestion of 3 years and $8 million with a nice option year at the end.<br /><br />If the Twins do as I suggest and resign him now, and all he ever does is be an overpaid 4.5 ERA pitcher who occasionally pitches lights-out, it's a big waste of money.<br /><br />I just don't see very many hard-throwing leftys in the Twins' farm system, which is exactly what makes Liriano so interesting.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01193037924987429075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4902093917256814919.post-21792435458824970532012-01-06T11:54:27.957-05:002012-01-06T11:54:27.957-05:00Buying low on Liriano is an interesting premise. I...Buying low on Liriano is an interesting premise. It's a unique spin, because so many Twins fans are clammoring to sell low on players just like Liriano. They want to trade him because he had a bad season.<br /><br />The difference between the theories of buying low on Mauer and Liriano is that, while Liriano is a good bet to bounce back in 2012, we have no idea where he'll be in the 2013 or 2014 in terms of performance. He's a yo-yo stock. Buying low on Mauer, at least, would have been likely to pay off over the next handful of seasons.<br /><br />That's why it's dangerous to offer that long-term contract to Liriano now. Of course if he comes out like a gang buster this year and delivers an ace performance, then he might just price himself out of the Twins' range, but the alternative is to hope that you don't end up paying him $10 million (or even $8 million) for a season like he had in 2011.<br /><br />Letting him play out his final arbitration season seems like the best thing to do. The Twins have strapped themselves financially already. If they play their relationship card right with Liriano this year, hopefully he has a good year and we can take it from there. But for me at least, buying low on him isn't something I'd consider.jessehttp://www.twinkietown.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4902093917256814919.post-61360043339874311182012-01-06T11:02:43.498-05:002012-01-06T11:02:43.498-05:00Buying low the Twin's aren't smart enough ...Buying low the Twin's aren't smart enough to due that. Plus the Twin's would have to spend some money this ain't going to happen but I would definately look him up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4902093917256814919.post-60820976861151385722012-01-04T13:58:30.012-05:002012-01-04T13:58:30.012-05:00Eric's proposal would make me uncomfortable, b...Eric's proposal would make me uncomfortable, but not make me throw up. Guess that means it's probably reasonable.<br /><br />And yes, the "contract year" syndrome sure seems to work a lot, but maybe it just seems that way because those are the situations that get the attention. Matt Capps was in his contract year last season, too.JimCrikkethttp://knuckleballsblog.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4902093917256814919.post-74458508286223901162012-01-04T07:58:25.420-05:002012-01-04T07:58:25.420-05:00JC, isn't it interesting how often (or at leas...JC, isn't it interesting how often (or at least how often it seems) that a player magically has an above average season going into a contract year? I agree, though, that it might be a tough fit right now based on what the Twins would want to pay to lock down Liriano after what he put up in 2011, versus what his agent might think his client could really be worth after another season. Some team, somewhere, would really overpay if Liriano wins 15 games this season and has an ERA under 4.<br /><br />Eric, that sounds like a pretty fair deal. Maximum commitment of $36 million over 4 years. I'd take it!Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01193037924987429075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4902093917256814919.post-92166603442192737502012-01-03T20:31:13.136-05:002012-01-03T20:31:13.136-05:00I would feel great about a 3 year deal around 24 m...I would feel great about a 3 year deal around 24 million, with an option for a 4th year at 12 million dollars.E Rolfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00247976130008140658noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4902093917256814919.post-32313488231749358502012-01-03T16:47:58.269-05:002012-01-03T16:47:58.269-05:00Obviously, there's a significant difference in...Obviously, there's a significant difference in risk between paying Pavano 8.5 mil for one more year and paying Liriano 9 mil a year for the next 4 years, though.<br /><br />You hit upon the crux of the issue, though, and that is that while the team may want to "buy low" and possibly get a discount on future years, the agent is likely to encourage the player to wait at this point and hope for a better year to build his value up (wouldn't it be great if all it took was his agent telling him to make sure he pitches well this year?!). Just as a year ago when the agent would have been quite happy talking about a long term deal, based on his player coming off a big year, while the team was reluctant to overpay. <br /><br />These deals happen only when both sides feel the time and money are "right". I'm not sure such will be the case with Liriano and the Twins this offseason.JimCrikkethttp://knuckleballsblog.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4902093917256814919.post-72395837849174477302012-01-03T14:01:14.687-05:002012-01-03T14:01:14.687-05:00Thanks for the comments. Much appreciated, as alwa...Thanks for the comments. Much appreciated, as always.<br /><br />JC, I agree that my figures to retain Liriano might be a little high. Keep in mind, though, that this is the same organization that is paying $8.5 million for Carl Pavano in 2012. Yes, he will "eat innings," and yes, he has been consistent when Liriano has not, but I'm not sure that Liriano at $9 million is worse than Pavano at $8.5 million. And then there's the Nick Blackburn contract . . . .<br /><br />I guess it's a big gamble, and you're right, if we're stuck at $100 million in payroll for the next 4 years, it's a lot to commit to a consistently inconsistent lefty. I'd definitely go for a 2 year, $15 million contract with an option, but in that case I bet Liriano's agent would tell him to make sure he pitches well in 2012 and hold out for a bigger payday somwhere else -- unless Liriano and company feel that his best days are behind him.Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01193037924987429075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4902093917256814919.post-59170216480766719332012-01-03T13:50:57.594-05:002012-01-03T13:50:57.594-05:00Unless he has a huge, CY-type, season, it's ha...Unless he has a huge, CY-type, season, it's hard for me to imagine Liriano getting more than $10-12 mil per year as a FA next offseason. That being the case, I can't see offering the level of contract you're suggesting. Even with just a "good" season, he's still going to have the "consistently inconsistent" tag that is likely to keep him from getting huge money.<br /><br />Locking him up now would be a case of "buying low", which is a reasonable idea IF you actually benefit by paying a relatively low amount. Offering a guaranteed $36-40 mil contract to Liriano now would be foolish. <br /><br />He needs to prove he can be relied upon in order to really cash in. If he could get the Twins to offer even a 2 year deal with an option that guarantees him $15 million, he should take it and build toward a big payday while he's still young enough to get it. In any event, I wouldn't want the Twins locking in 10% of their annual payroll on a guy no more reliable than Liriano has been.JimCrikkethttp://knuckleballsblog.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4902093917256814919.post-37594169190815866662012-01-03T11:47:22.095-05:002012-01-03T11:47:22.095-05:00No brainer in my book... but after locking in Blac...No brainer in my book... but after locking in Blackburn, they might have some buyers' remorse.thrylos98https://www.blogger.com/profile/15729211884114784386noreply@blogger.com