Fans: Would You Give up Memories from the 2010 Season in Exchange for Bryce Harper?

Twins fans, can you picture
Bryce Harper wearing the TC logo?

**Full disclosure: this post is full of hypotheticals, and is not grounded in reality**

The 2010 season produced some great memories for Twins fans. Jim Thome proved that you could be old (in baseball terms) and still destroy a baseball. Joe Mauer had a solid season. Justin Morneau played the first half of the season at an MVP pace. Even Delmon Young had a career-best season and, honestly, led the Twins in offense down the stretch. The Twins cruised to an easy AL Central title, and it almost felt like 2010 was going to be different than all the other seasons. Yes, we were playing the Yankees again, but this team was better than the 2009 version -- it had more confidence, better talent, and was playing in a brand new, shiny stadium. Yea, it almost felt different (cut to graphic of Charlie Brown believing that, this time, Lucy is indeed going to hold the football in place while he kicks it).

Of course, that's not how it played out. The Twins lost 3 in a row to the Yankees, the first 2 at Target Field, and that was it for the playoffs. The Twins haven't been remotely close to a .500 team since then, and there is very little to indicate that next year will be considerably better, unless major moves are made to acquire starting pitching.

But let's imagine, just for a second, that 2010 didn't go nearly as well. We'll say, for instance, that it basically went like 2011 did: Mauer injured, half the Rochester Red Wings on daily shuttles to the MSP airport; Jim Thome not as impressive; and a rash of other injuries that made the Twins simply awful. Let's say, in fact, that the Twins finished with the worst record in baseball in 2010. That would have given them the #1 pick in MLB's 2011 amateur draft. The Nationals, of course, selected Bryce Harper, and he has been a mainstay in their major league lineup for a few months now. Yes, he has struggled recently, but there is every indication to believe that Harper -- who could have a 20-year career -- will live up to his potential.

So here is my question for the day: What's "just another" division title worth to you? What if, instead of having a great 2010 and fading yet again in the playoffs, the Twins could have drafted Harper in 2011 by absolutely tanking the 2010 season? Or, perhaps, Stephen Strasburg in 2009? Would you, as a fan, rather have that extra pennant hanging at Target Field, or would you be willing to exchange all those great 2010 memories for a Harper or Strasburg level of talent?

A Tale of Two Rookies: Harper and Dozier



Brian Dozier, new Twins shortstop

 One player you probably have heard of since he was 15 years old. Between the prodigious 500 foot home runs as a teenager, the eye black that could be mistaken for war paint, and an ego big enough to handle a $6.25 million signing bonus, he came into professional baseball already anointed as "the chosen one." Despite putting up fairly pedestrian numbers in relatively short stints at AA and AAA, it was of little surprise that the Washington Nationals promoted him early in the 2012 season: they want to sell tickets and be successful, and there's little doubt that he is a long-term solution to both those issues.

The other player only fans of the Twins minor league system had heard of up until this past spring. He is a college graduate and was a 4-year starter on the Southern Mississippi baseball team, he's 25 and just getting his first taste of the big leagues, was an 8th round draft pick, and (mostly) flew under the radar until he was named 2011 Twins minor league player of the year. He's not flashy, does not hit 500 foot home runs, and from what I have seen, he does not even wear eye black. He's not viewed as the second coming of Babe Ruth, and he's not expected to permanently change the face of the Twins franchise.

But just for kicks, I thought it might be fun to do a side-by-side comparison of Bryce Harper and the Twins' new shortstop Brian Dozier. On paper, of course, they couldn't be less similar players: one is a power-hitting teenage outfielder that may hit 500 home runs in his career; the other is a solid middle infielder expected to hit for decent average and with moderate power. It's interesting, though, that both broke into the big leagues at almost the same time -- Dozier's first game was May 7; Harper's was April 28 -- and both were brought up to inject some life into their clubs. The point here isn't to compare Dozier and Harper to one another -- that would be senseless. Rather, I'm just comparing what they have done, in a similar time span, with what fans of both organizations might have hoped for or expected.

As of today, Harper has a .244/.333/.449 slash line with 2 home runs, 2 triples, 6 doubles and 7 RBIs. His OPS is .782. Dozier stands at .279/.292/.426 with 2 home runs, 3 doubles and 8 RBIs, with an OPS of .719. Just looking at those basic stats, a couple things stand out: first, although Harper "only" has 2 home runs, his ability to hit for extra bases is noteworthy. Second, it's not surprising that Harper is batting under .250 -- he hit .256 in 37 games at AA, and .250 in only 20 games at AAA. Yes, you're reading that right: he only played 57 games above A level minor league baseball before being called up. As I mentioned, his promotion was not solely merit-based.

With respect to Dozier, he has been as advertised: capable in the field, some power, and the ability to hit for a good average. In short, in the extremely small sample sizes, both players are performing pretty much like you might expect. Dozier has been good on defense, has hit for average, and has shown occasional pop; Harper's batting average is lower than it was at AA or AAA, but he has demonstrated that, when he does hit, the power is there.

It's funny that there is so much hype for one player, Harper, and the other, Dozier, will play this season in relative obscurity (it doesn't help Dozier's case that the Twins will be out of the national spotlight all summer). Yes, I do think that Harper will be an excellent major league player for years to come, and I also admit that I have enjoyed watching the way he hustles on the field 100 percent of the time. But this season, while ESPN is cutting into other broadcasts to alert us as to what great athletic feat (turning a single into a hustle double) or crazy behavior (hitting himself in the head with a bat) Harper is engaged in, I'll be content to watch a solid-fielding shortstop, who seems like a genuinely decent guy, who hopefully can anchor the Twins' infield for the foreseeable future.

Aaron Hicks to AA New Britain: Too Much, Too Soon?

Jeff Dooley, the voice of the New Britain Rock Cats, has been blogging about Twins Spring Training. A couple days ago, he stated in the blog that the Rock Cats' 2012 lineup would be headlined by prospect Aaron Hicks. This is generally in agreement with what I heard at the Rock Cats Hot Stove luncheon in January, where Rock Cats manager Jeff Smith suggested that, at some point in 2012, fans in Connecticut would be welcoming Hicks.

Though the promotion is certainly great news for Hicks (and for me, who will get to watch him play a bunch this year), I am wondering if it was the correct move at this moment. Hicks did not receive an invitation to Spring Training this season. Terry Ryan recently stated to Pat Reusse, regarding Hicks: "He didn't have much of a summer. We want the young players to understand that you need a good year -- not a few good weeks -- to be rewarded."

Was Aaron Hicks really ready for the promotion to
AA New Britain?

Those "few weeks" that Ryan referenced were Hicks' solid performance in the Arizona Fall League, where he ended up with a .294/.400/.559 slash line, along with 8 doubles, 5 triples and 3 home runs. Those numbers were encouraging, sure, but were comprised of just over 100 plate appearances. I think it's more important to look at what Hicks did in 2011 at single-A Ft. Myers, where he accumulated a .242/.354/.368 slash line with 110 strikeouts, 78 walks and 5 home runs in 528 plate appearances. If, as Ryan said, the organization doesn't want to reward players with a Spring Training invite (I assume they use Evite or some similar computer program to save on costs) based on a few good weeks of fall baseball, it's strange that Hicks was rewarded with a promotion to double-A on that same basis. It surely can't be based on his 2011 regular season numbers, which do not demonstrate any kind of mastery of single-A, at least with respect to offense. As we learned from the Terry Doyle experiment, success in the AFL doesn't necessarily translate to success at the next level -- whatever that next level is.

Hicks' promotion reminds me, on some levels, of Bryce Harper's recent promotion from double-A to triple-A. If you weren't paying attention to the news, it almost came off like a demotion. After all, some in the Washington Nationals camp thought Harper would begin the season as the Nationals' center fielder. It seems like it will just be a matter of months -- not years -- before Harper sets foot in the nation's capitol permanently, but I think the Nationals got a little ahead of themselves. Harper's line at double-A Harrisburg was .256/.329./.395 over 37 games. That's right, he only played 37 games at double-A. He struck out 26 times, walked 15, and hit 3 home runs, 1 triple and 7 doubles in that time. That hardly qualifies as mastery in my book, but he's on Washington's fast track, for better or worse. Don't get me wrong -- he seems a lock to be a star major league player, but why would it hurt him to bat .300 at Harrisburg before being promoted to AAA or Washington?

Unless there's a staffing emergency such as a sudden opening due to a trade, or a startling lack of depth at a particular position, it seems to me that, especially with respect to top prospects like Harper -- and Hicks -- it's best to have those players succeed at the lower levels before they are promoted. You can still promote players quickly, though. And for the Twins, if there's one position where there is not a staffing emergency or a lack of depth, it's at center field. We know that Hicks' glove is there, and from that defensive standpoint I'm sure he earned the promotion. But the streaky offensive side is alarming. I'd like to see Hicks start of at Ft. Myers and do well there, even if just for a month or two, before coming out to New Britain. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on Hicks. Did he earn the promotion, or should he be spending a bit more time in Ft. Myers to prove that he's ready for the next step offensively?

On a side note, check out my recent post at Through the Fence Baseball, which includes a great picture of Target Field taken by Michael Cuddyer.