(Credit: Ben Garvin)
As July comes to a close, the inevitable discussion (at least in Twins Territory) turns to what assets the team could/should part with. This season, as the team slowly but surely heads to a 4th straight 90-loss campaign, names like Kurt Suzuki, Kendrys Morales, Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia and even Brian Dozier have surfaced. But there's another player -- a guy that not as many are discussing, but who has more value, perhaps, than all those other guys combined (save Dozier): Glen Perkins.
Let's get a couple things out of the way. First, I'm a big Glen Perkins fan. He's roughly my age, and he's from Stillwater, a short, short drive from my hometown of White Bear Lake. Except for the part where we didn't know each other, we could have been best friends. There's literally nothing to dislike about this guy. Even though I disagreed with him on twitter a few weeks ago (and he actually responded to me directly like a man), he's my favorite Twin. Second, he's an elite relief pitcher. I tend to think that closers (by definition and pay) are overrated, but by any stretch, he's one of the best in the game.
As such a valuable player and elite reliever, Perkins is likely the Twins' most valuable (meaning most value on the trade market) player. Is there any reason why Perkins should be "untouchable?" No.
Some more detail on Perkins. He recently signed a relatively team-friendly (if unnecessary) extension. Here's that how it plays out. Perkins will make $4.025 million this season; $4.65 million in 2015; $6.3 million in 2016; $6.5 million in 2017; and there is a team option for 2018 at $6.5 million. Perkins can select 3 teams each season in what is essentially a very limited no-trade clause. If you're curious about a Twins-comparison, they paid Joe Nathan $11.25 to close 2009-2011 (yes, the 2009 and 2010 teams were much better, but you get the point).
With Perkins' deal expiring in 2017 (or 2018 should the team exercise the option), it's fair at this point to question whether Perkins will every have the opportunity to save an important game for the Twins. What's "an important game?" For this purpose, it's a game in August or September when the Twins are winning and within striking distance of the postseason. It won't happen in 2015. Sorry. Essentially lost seasons for Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano have pushed back the clock on when the Twins will next be competitive. I used to think the team would be fighting for a playoff spot by the 2016 season, but I don't feel that way any longer. For that to happen, I think one or both of Buxton/Sano have to be up in a Twins uniform about now-ish. Here's my best guess: Glen Perkins won't be the closer for the next Twins playoff game. Why? Either his contract will have expired, or he will have aged to the point where there are better/cheaper options. I'm actually kind of confident on this point. Unless you think the Twins (and the front office) have what it takes to quickly go from 90 losses to 90 wins, it's not going to happen the next couple years. If you haven't realized it by now, we're in the midst of a long and mostly painful journey.
As it stands, the Twins area 90-loss team. A 90-loss team does not need a proven, established closer -- especially a budget-conscious team like the Twins. The Twins have, or will have, other qualified relievers to do that job at a fraction of the price. Specifically, Nick Burdi. Yes, he's a young prospect, and yes, he could never get out of Low-A. But I (and many others) am willing to bet that, by 2016 or 2017, Burdi could be a dominating back-end reliever closing games for the Twins. And, he could do it for 10% the price as Perkins. Burdi could be 90% as good as Perkins for 10% the price. Even if you don't care about the Twins' payroll, the Twins do.
This organization has a tough time parting with home-grown talent. And I get it. They couldn't get rid of Michael Cuddyer or Joe Nathan (not homegrown technically, but still) when there would have been at least some return. But look what happened when they bit the bullet: Ben Revere (great guy, but marginal talent) netted Trevor May, who is in the midst of a very solid season and is on the verge of joining the Twins' rotation; Denard Span netted Alex Meyer (having a not fantastic season, but is the best chance this team has had for a true "ace" in a decade). Prospects are no sure thing, but if Revere and Span can net such solid prospects (not at the trade deadline when GM's are under the gun), I have to imagine that Perkins -- a better player at his position than Span or Revere, and a "proven closer" -- could net a very good return. Remember when some team traded for Matt Capps and gave up a very good catching prospect??
Will a trade happen? Almost certainly not. Despite the fact that, as I write this, there are 14 teams within 3 games of their division lead (not to mention the additional teams within striking distance of the wild card), there seems to be no discussion about moving Perkins. Honestly, part of that blame lies with fans. We always clamor for the organization to do something, but when I brought this subject up on Twitter last night, there was some resistance.
We as fans can't say, in the general sense, "I wish they (the Twins) would make big moves, but that's not their M.O."; and then say in the next breath, "but not Perkins. Gotta hang onto him." How about, instead: "Now is the time to break the mold that has helped contribute to what will be 4 straight 90-loss seasons from a once-proud franchise. Even though it's tough to part with good guys, I can see that this move helps with the future." It won't happen. But that doesn't mean it shouldn't.