Trade Glen Perkins

Glen Perkins
(Credit: Ben Garvin)

As July comes to a close, the inevitable discussion (at least in Twins Territory) turns to what assets the team could/should part with. This season, as the team slowly but surely heads to a 4th straight 90-loss campaign, names like Kurt Suzuki, Kendrys Morales, Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia and even Brian Dozier have surfaced. But there's another player -- a guy that not as many are discussing, but who has more value, perhaps, than all those other guys combined (save Dozier): Glen Perkins.

Let's get a couple things out of the way. First, I'm a big Glen Perkins fan. He's roughly my age, and he's from Stillwater, a short, short drive from my hometown of White Bear Lake. Except for the part where we didn't know each other, we could have been best friends. There's literally nothing to dislike about this guy. Even though I disagreed with him on twitter a few weeks ago (and he actually responded to me directly like a man), he's my favorite Twin. Second, he's an elite relief pitcher. I tend to think that closers (by definition and pay) are overrated, but by any stretch, he's one of the best in the game.

As such a valuable player and elite reliever, Perkins is likely the Twins' most valuable (meaning most value on the trade market) player. Is there any reason why Perkins should be "untouchable?" No.

Some more detail on Perkins. He recently signed a relatively team-friendly (if unnecessary) extension. Here's that how it plays out. Perkins will make $4.025 million this season; $4.65 million in 2015; $6.3 million in 2016; $6.5 million in 2017; and there is a team option for 2018 at $6.5 million. Perkins can select 3 teams each season in what is essentially a very limited no-trade clause. If you're curious about a Twins-comparison, they paid Joe Nathan $11.25 to close 2009-2011 (yes, the 2009 and 2010 teams were much better, but you get the point).

With Perkins' deal expiring in 2017 (or 2018 should the team exercise the option), it's fair at this point to question whether Perkins will every have the opportunity to save an important game for the Twins. What's "an important game?" For this purpose, it's a game in August or September when the Twins are winning and within striking distance of the postseason. It won't happen in 2015. Sorry. Essentially lost seasons for Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano have pushed back the clock on when the Twins will next be competitive. I used to think the team would be fighting for a playoff spot by the 2016 season, but I don't feel that way any longer. For that to happen, I think one or both of Buxton/Sano have to be up in a Twins uniform about now-ish. Here's my best guess: Glen Perkins won't be the closer for the next Twins playoff game. Why? Either his contract will have expired, or he will have aged to the point where there are better/cheaper options. I'm actually kind of confident on this point. Unless you think the Twins (and the front office) have what it takes to quickly go from 90 losses to 90 wins, it's not going to happen the next couple years. If you haven't realized it by now, we're in the midst of a long and mostly painful journey.

As it stands, the Twins area 90-loss team. A 90-loss team does not need a proven, established closer -- especially a budget-conscious team like the Twins. The Twins have, or will have, other qualified relievers to do that job at a fraction of the price. Specifically, Nick Burdi. Yes, he's a young prospect, and yes, he could never get out of Low-A. But I (and many others) am willing to bet that, by 2016 or 2017, Burdi could be a dominating back-end reliever closing games for the Twins. And, he could do it for 10% the price as Perkins. Burdi could be 90% as good as Perkins for 10% the price. Even if you don't care about the Twins' payroll, the Twins do.  

This organization has a tough time parting with home-grown talent. And I get it. They couldn't get rid of Michael Cuddyer or Joe Nathan (not homegrown technically, but still) when there would have been at least some return. But look what happened when they bit the bullet: Ben Revere (great guy, but marginal talent) netted Trevor May, who is in the midst of a very solid season and is on the verge of joining the Twins' rotation; Denard Span netted Alex Meyer (having a not fantastic season, but is the best chance this team has had for a true "ace" in a decade). Prospects are no sure thing, but if Revere and Span can net such solid prospects (not at the trade deadline when GM's are under the gun), I have to imagine that Perkins -- a better player at his position than Span or Revere, and a "proven closer" -- could net a very good return. Remember when some team traded for Matt Capps and gave up a very good catching prospect??

Will a trade happen? Almost certainly not. Despite the fact that, as I write this, there are 14 teams within 3 games of their division lead (not to mention the additional teams within striking distance of the wild card), there seems to be no discussion about moving Perkins. Honestly, part of that blame lies with fans. We always clamor for the organization to do something, but when I brought this subject up on Twitter last night, there was some resistance. 

We as fans can't say, in the general sense, "I wish they (the Twins) would make big moves, but that's not their M.O."; and then say in the next breath, "but not Perkins. Gotta hang onto him." How about, instead: "Now is the time to break the mold that has helped contribute to what will be 4 straight 90-loss seasons from a once-proud franchise. Even though it's tough to part with good guys, I can see that this move helps with the future." It won't happen. But that doesn't mean it shouldn't.

The Night We Almost Spilled Beer on the Big Canadian (2012 Justin Morneau Casino Night)

For the second consecutive year, my wife and I made the flight to Minnesota for Justin Morneau's Casino Night. It's a charity event for the Arthritis Foundation -- specifically, juvenile arthritis (Justin's niece suffers from juvenile arthritis). It's part of the Twins week of hope. Instead of hitting up a couple games at Target Field this year, we opted for this event instead, held at International Market Square, just a few blocks from Target Field. The Twins might not be very good this year, or even next year, but if there is one thing this organization does well, it is being active in the community and using celebrity to raise awareness and money for worthy causes. Yes, all sports teams do this stuff.

Justin Morneau appears unscathed despite narrowly
avoiding an Amstel Light

But, as I have mentioned before, good luck meeting Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez for under $1,000 per person, and good luck having a beer with David Ortiz in Boston for under $500. The Twins are accessible and in the community. In my mind, this event costs about as much as good seats to 2 Twins games, and quite frankly, I'd rather have a guaranteed good time at Casino Night.

This picture with Morneau was taken about 20 seconds after my wife accidentally knocked a full beer off the card table and onto the ground, just next to Morneau's feet. He was a good sport, mentioning that he'll forget about the the fact that his tux smells like beer until next June when he pulls it out of the plastic bag again.

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2011 Rock Cat, 2012 Twin, Brian Dozier

This year, I've been doing a lot of Rock Cats stuff, and was looking forward to meeting Brian Dozier, whom I had watched several times last season but had never met. Yes, he's been up and down this season with respect to his defensive and offensive performances, and yes, there are going to be bumps and bruises along the way, but I do believe that he's the Twins' shortstop of the future. Also, he's an exceedingly nice human being. From speaking to loyal Rock Cats fans, I can tell you that he has not, and likely will not, forget where he came from.

I opted NOT to ask Joe Mauer about his engagement,
unlike the 10 people before me

Joe Mauer was a pretty big draw. Women, especially, wanted to congratulate him on his engagement. This was the first time that I met him in person, and I'm still shocked he doesn't hit for more power: the guy is huge -- even compared to the other players there. As you have probably read 1,000 times, Mauer was extremely nice to EVERYONE that wanted to talk to him. We spoke for about 5 minutes, and he asked me for an update on Alex Wimmers' progress after I told him where I lived and that I followed the Rock Cats players pretty closely.

It was a really fun night. The food was good, the silent and live auction items were great, the beer and wine were flowing, and most of the Twins players -- the ones you would want to meet, anyway -- were there. Here are a couple other snapshots from the night.

You know you've made it when someone designs
a logo for you

The Big Canadian giving a keynote address
Future politician?

My wife, 5 feet 2 inches (in heels admittedly),
was not dwarfed by Ben Revere

Trading for Prospects: What Arrival Time are We Looking For?

In exchange for Denard Span,
should the Twins be targeting
MLB-ready talent, or guys set
to contribute in 2014 and beyond?

There has been a lot of fun and interesting talk lately about the Twins potentially trading away some veterans, such as Denard Span and Carl Pavano, to a contending team. This, unfortunately, is what losing teams do in order to re-stock. What's doubly unfortunate is that these discussions are taking place in the first part of May, 2012. The Twins' nice win last night notwithstanding, it seems like the stars have to align lately to get both a good pitching and hitting performance out of this team, and that feels unlikely to change. Naturally, fans (and hopefully the front office) begin to look toward the future. Last season, many in Twins Territory were hopeful that 2011 was an aberration -- that the Twins would be healthy and bounce back in 2012. We now know that 2012 is heading in a similar, or worse, direction as 2011, and that the Twins are in the midst of a rebuild, even if they haven't yet uttered that dirty word.

Denard Span is our most tradeable asset: he is a good offensive player, a solid defender, and he is under a relatively team-friendly contract through 2014 with a club option for 2015. There have already been a couple notable outfield injuries in baseball this year, such as Jayson Werth of the Nationals. The Nationals, of course, were the team that had interest in Span last season and were dangling young reliever Drew Storen. The deal never happened, thankfully. But it got us all talking about what it would take to move Span.

Because this team is rebuilding, every potential deal that the Twins consider this season must be made for the future. We have high hopes for players in the low levels of our farm system like Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario. Even if you fast-track both of those players, and even if they exceed expectations, their ETA at Target Field for a permanent call-up is probably 2015. We have some good, yet unrefined, talent at AA New Britain in Aaron Hicks, and hopefully Joe Benson can find his swing again. And there isn't much to speak of at AAA right now after Brian Dozier's promotion. Kyle Gibson is recovering from Tommy John surgery, and top prospect Alex Wimmers might be next on the operating table, pushing back (what I had figured to be) a 2013 Target Field debut if he had a successful 2012 at New Britain and Rochester. These are just a few guys of dozens in the farm system, but you get my point: the best Twins' minor league talent is not yet close to knocking on Target Field's door.

When the Twins consider offers for Span, or Pavano (or even Liriano if he could manage to string together 3 or 4 good games in a row), they need to think about acquiring young players that will be ready for 2014 at the earliest -- and that will be under team control for those years immediately thereafter. Drew Storen, the Nationals reliever, is an interesting study precisely for that reason. Notwithstanding the fact that I don't believe in trading Span, an every day player, for a relief pitcher that will throw around 60 total innings, let's examine it. Storen, a very good pitcher who would be an asset in pretty much any bullpen, will become a free agent in 2017. Yes, that sounds really far away. But it isn't. In 2017, this team could just be getting good again. Let's say Sano pans out -- he would be in his age 24 season, perhaps his 3rd or 4th season, and at his athletic peak -- and Rosario would be 26. Mauer would still be under contract, and who knows, he could still be a .330 hitter. Gibson, Wimmers and Hicks would still be under team control, too. In other words, a young, affordable nucleus. Does that sound familiar, Twins fans? It sounds to me like the teams of the early-to-mid 2000s. Yes, it's all speculation, but when your team is this bad now, I do think you have to look at the big, very distant picture, as you evaluate deals.

What I'm getting at is that it might not be best, as many (including myself) have suggested, for the Twins to look for pitchers -- or other position players -- that are close to "major league ready" this season. If it's indeed going to be tough in Minnesota for a few years, why do I want a pitcher that, as an example, has Storen's current service time? Just so he can be ready for an expensive contract right when the new nucleus of the Twins is coming into its prime? Or so I can watch him pitch on losing teams for 2 or 3 years? Perhaps the best bet -- and it is indeed a gamble -- is to look for younger players. Make no mistake: I'm not talking about low round draft picks or anything like that, just young, high-ceiling players that have a distance to travel before they, too, are ready for Target Field.

Rebuilding the Minnesota Twins

This beautiful photo, taken by former Twin Michael Cuddyer,
illustrates the main concern for the Twins organization:
empty seats

The White Sox officially announced that they were rebuilding last December, when they traded pitcher Sergio Santos to the Toronto Blue Jays for a pitching prospect. At that time, General Manager Kenny Williams said, "It is the start of a rebuilding. You guys know I have not used that word in 12 years. It's the start of a rebuilding now." It's sort of rare for a front office to officially admit that a team is rebuilding, and you can see why -- there is a stigma attached to the word "rebuilding." Most often, it's very obvious from actions, rather than words, that a team is rebuilding. They will never admit it, but it's more than clear.

It's embarrassing, in any personal or professional endeavor, to admit that your Plan A, and perhaps Plan B and Plan C, didn't work. You have to go back to the drawing board completely, and it's going to cost you. With respect to Major League Baseball, it's going to cost you ticket sales, and everything that comes with putting people in your seats: concession and liquor revenue; merchandise revenue; parking revenue; and probably the ability to attract top talent to your team. The list goes on, I'm sure. Over the end of last season, and into the off-season, it seemed like the Twins were re-tooling -- or reloading, rather than rebuilding: a guy that left, like Michael Cuddyer, for instance, was replaced with a comparable, yet somewhat cheaper alternative, like Josh Willingham. Through these efforts, the Twins went into 2012 fielding a seemingly competitive team (not World Series competitive; just competitive in the sense they could win 81 games), but also reduced payroll. In the end, you definitely would not have called last offseason one of rebuilding.

And then the last 10 days happened. Scott Baker is done for this season without throwing a pitch, and his career as a Twin might be over. Nick Blackburn has been injured, though he is scheduled to pitch this week -- I'm not holding my breath there. Already, two of the most veteran arms are suspect. This doesn't take into account Francisco Liriano, who certainly is not pitching like it's a contract year. Offensively, Jamey Carroll has been mostly dreadful. Couldn't Brian Dozier do the job for less? He'll probably be given a shot next month, so we'll find out. Josh Willingham, great at the plate, has shown that he'd be better suited for designated hitter. This isn't just supposed to be a laundry list of complaints about my favorite team. I'm listing them to illustrate the massive holes that this team has -- even with a $100 million payroll.

The word "rebuilding" is loaded. When a GM utters that word, there's no going back. You are bound to lose ticket sales. At Target Field, commencing only its third year, an official period of rebuilding probably was not an option. But here's a question for you this morning: would the money the Twins would lose in, say, 2012 and 2013 by officially rebuilding, be less than or greater than the money they could stand to lose in the future, say, 2014-2016, if their failure now to officially rebuild and sell off tradeable contracts comes back to bite them in the form of 5 or 6 sustained years of non-winning teams, versus just 2 or 3? Long-winded question, I know. I don't know the answer, but I think it's worth discussing.

Right now, that's my worry. Yes, there are some great prospects coming up. We should be excited by guys like Miguel Sano and Alex Wimmers. But they -- especially Sano -- are some time away from arriving. If the Twins continue the subpar play into May, and then June, I'm hoping that we see some major moves for the long-term health of this organization. That's tough to say for the fan in me that likes each of these players for different reasons, but the Twins might have an opportunity to do what they failed to do at the deadline last year -- move competitive players for decent prospects. If that's the case -- and for the record I hope this team gets going and puts posts like this to rest -- I hope that the front office acts this time around. Act for fans of the Twins organization; act for 2014 and beyond.