What Makes an MVP? Verlander is a Compelling Case

Some years there are no-doubt favorites for baseball's MVP awards. In 2009, for instance, Joe Mauer was expected to, and almost did, sweep the first place voting. He led the league in batting average, hit for power, got on base at an amazing clip, and did it all while catching, which is undoubtedly the most physically demanding position in baseball. Furthermore, Joe led the Twins' resurgence down the stretch in the AL Central, helping them tie, then pass, the Detroit Tigers and win the division. Where would the Twins have been without Joe Mauer in 2009? If there's an image in the baseball dictionary next to the entry for "AL MVP," I expect it to be of Joe Mauer, circa 2009 (contrast this with the image of "Joe Mauer, 2011," which I believe would depict Joe Mauer, a kitten, Tylenol Cold & Flu, and angry teammates).

2011 is shaping up to be an interesting year, at least in terms of AL MVP voting. Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays, Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson and CC Sabathia of the Yankees, and Adrian Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury of the Boston Red Sox, are all likely to receive votes this year. The player I want to discuss today, however, is Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers.

Verlander simply has had a dominant year, having secured his 20th victory before the calendar turned to September. Verlander has only 5 losses on the year, and his ERA currently sits a 2.34. As the Twins have seen, he has become a power pitcher. He routinely throws in the mid-90s, but when necessary, is capable of elevating his fastball to another level, topping out just shy of 100 miles per hour. Best of all, he can control those power pitches. When the situation dictates, Verlander has another gear entirely. Few pitchers have that ability. Verlander has averaged 7.5 innings pitched per start this year. That's where I believe a large part of his value comes into play. Otherwise stated, in an average Verlander start, he leaves the bullpen responsible for getting approximately 4 or 5 outs. And we know based on his other stats that, on an average Verlander night, he is pitching very well in those 7.5 innings.

Where would the Tigers be without Justin Verlander in 2011? The answer is likely not in first place. Aside from Verlander, the Tigers are a good -- but not great -- team. Don't be fooled by the Twins' failures against the Tigers this year. Sure, they mean something, but to me it's much more a reflection on the Twins' pathetic season than it is the Tigers' dominance. I'm suggesting that, in terms of importance and value, what Mauer was to the Twins in 2009, Verlander is to the Tigers in 2011.

I completely understand, and to an extent agree with, the arguments against voting for a pitcher as baseball MVP: they only play in 20 percent of the games; in the AL they do not contribute at all offensively; and there is the Cy Young award precisely for that reason. Accordingly, many argue, how "valuable" can a pitcher be, compared, for example, with Mauer, who when healthy is involved in almost every single pitch of every game, or a shortstop like Dustin Pedroia, who captains an infield for almost every inning of a 162 game season?

I get that argument, but in terms of value, Verlander has been so valuable in his 30 starts this season that, in my mind, it almost vitiates the fact that he is not an every-day player. He has won 70 percent of his starts, and has thrown 4 complete games. Verlander has an effect on the bullpen, as well as his other starting pitchers: Jim Leyland has the luxury of being able to overwork the bullpen (if necessary, of course) the night before a Verlander start, because the numbers dictate that there's a very good chance Verlander is going to leave little work for others. Furthermore, following a Verlander start, in theory, many members of the bullpen should be pitching on good rest. This trickles down to the starter for the next day, as well, who often pitches knowing that when they leave the game, it will be in the hands of a healthy and rested bullpen. How many times this season have Twins fans seen the domino effects of short starts and overworked bullpens? It feels like dozens.

I'm not suggesting that Verlander is necessarily going to get my BBA MVP vote this year. I am of the opinion that he is equally, if not more, valuable this season than Bautista, Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Sabathia, Cano or Granderson. Though he is not an every day player, it is naive to suggest that the effects of his pitching dominance -- and long-lasting starts -- extend no further than the 20 percent of games in which he appears. The Yankees, without Cano, could still be competing in a tough AL East, as could the Red Sox without Ellsbury. It would indeed be more difficult, but it would be possible. Verlander, with his 7.8 WAR rating (by comparison, Granderson: 5.1; Cano: 4.3; Bautista: 8.1; Gonzalez: 6.0; Ellsbury: 6.1; Sabathia: 5.8) represents such an important piece of a Tigers team that is good, but not great, that his value this year cannot be overstated.

It will be interesting to see how the last month of the regular season plays out. If Bautista keeps slugging, if Ellsbury continues his great season, and if Granderson continues to hit the ball all over Yankee Stadium, anyone could win this award. If Verlander, however, continues to dominate in his starts, and if the Tigers win the AL Central, Verlander deserves serious trophy consideration, and not just for the Cy Young award.

AL and NL MVP Picks

Leading up to the regular season, I'll be posting my picks for some of the major baseball awards, as well as my predictions for which Twins players will lead team pitching and offensive categories.

I'm not really a betting man, although Mega Millions is pretty high right now (remember to play within your limits). If a were a gambler, however, here are my picks for the AL and NL MVPs for 2011. No real shockers:


Adrian Gonzalez, in his first year as a member of the Red Sox, will be batting cleanup in the most feared lineup in baseball, in a stadium that favors his opposite-field power, playing for one of the most heavily covered teams. Batting in front of him will be speedsters Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford, as well as former MVP Dustin Pedroia, and behind him will be sluggers Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. Simply stated, Gonzalez will have speed and high batting averages in front of him to create RBIs, and the threat of power behind him, ensuring that he will see pitches to hit. The Red Sox' rejuvenated, healthy, power-packed offense will be the front-runner in the AL East, following the failure of the Yankees to acquire a marquis player, and the liquidation of the Tampa Bay Rays. MVP voters look for large offensive numbers and passable defense from a star player on a team that is in contention for the playoffs. On paper, Gonzalez, already a 3-time All-Star and 2-time Gold Glove winner in his own right, is in line for what could be a legendary season with the Red Sox. Notably, as of the end of March, he has yet to sign an extension with Boston, and although many believe it is forthcoming, he is playing for his next contract. Though the expectations for Gonzalez are high, he is poised to have the most productive season of his career, and to help lead the Red Sox to the playoffs.

Dark Horse: Justin Morneau. Even if Morneau takes a month to get going, if he ends up having a great 5 months, stays healthy, and the Twins are in contention, he will get votes. After his injury in 2010, voters will want to see him succeed in 2011. Like Gonzalez with the Red Sox, he will be batting in front of a couple hitters who we (hope in the case of Nishioka/expect in the case of Mauer) to be on base very often, and behind him will be some combination of D. Young, Kubel or Thome. Morneau will have plenty of RBI opportunities and will see pitches to hit.

In the National League, no player has more to prove in 2011 than Albert Pujols, namely, that he is worth the 10 year, $300 million contract he reportedly is seeking. Last month, all reports indicated that the St. Louis Cardinals offered to make Pujols the fourth or fifth highest paid player at his position, that the average yearly value of the contract was several million dollars short of Pujols' goal, and that the sides were never even close to a deal prior to reaching his self-imposed deadline for negotiating. In 2011, Pujols must prove to the Cardinals, the Cubs, and any host of teams that have a potential vacancy at first base, that he is worth the commitment he is seeking. He may be the odds-on favorite to win the NL MVP award each season, but it will not be enough this year to simply bat .300, hit 35 home runs and drive in 110 runs. Pujols needs a season for the ages, a season in which he is leading the Triple Crown race entering September, a season in which he hits 50 home runs and manages to make the Cardinals a competitive team. If he has that season, he will easily win the MVP and force the Cardinals ownership to essentially write him a $300 million check. If any player in baseball can, on demand, come up with that kind of season, it is Albert Pujols.

Dark Horse: If Giants catcher Buster Posey is the real deal, if he plays great defense, bats like he did in the World Series, and keeps the Giants competitive, he's going to get a lot of votes. Like Joe Mauer a few years ago, Posey might become a household name in 2011, if he is not already.