Leading up to the regular season, I'll be posting my picks for some of the major baseball awards, as well as my predictions for which Twins players will lead team pitching and offensive categories.
I'm not really a betting man, although Mega Millions is pretty high right now (remember to play within your limits). If a were a gambler, however, here are my picks for the AL and NL MVPs for 2011. No real shockers:
Adrian Gonzalez, in his first year as a member of the Red Sox, will be batting cleanup in the most feared lineup in baseball, in a stadium that favors his opposite-field power, playing for one of the most heavily covered teams. Batting in front of him will be speedsters Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford, as well as former MVP Dustin Pedroia, and behind him will be sluggers Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz. Simply stated, Gonzalez will have speed and high batting averages in front of him to create RBIs, and the threat of power behind him, ensuring that he will see pitches to hit. The Red Sox' rejuvenated, healthy, power-packed offense will be the front-runner in the AL East, following the failure of the Yankees to acquire a marquis player, and the liquidation of the Tampa Bay Rays. MVP voters look for large offensive numbers and passable defense from a star player on a team that is in contention for the playoffs. On paper, Gonzalez, already a 3-time All-Star and 2-time Gold Glove winner in his own right, is in line for what could be a legendary season with the Red Sox. Notably, as of the end of March, he has yet to sign an extension with Boston, and although many believe it is forthcoming, he is playing for his next contract. Though the expectations for Gonzalez are high, he is poised to have the most productive season of his career, and to help lead the Red Sox to the playoffs.
Dark Horse: Justin Morneau. Even if Morneau takes a month to get going, if he ends up having a great 5 months, stays healthy, and the Twins are in contention, he will get votes. After his injury in 2010, voters will want to see him succeed in 2011. Like Gonzalez with the Red Sox, he will be batting in front of a couple hitters who we (hope in the case of Nishioka/expect in the case of Mauer) to be on base very often, and behind him will be some combination of D. Young, Kubel or Thome. Morneau will have plenty of RBI opportunities and will see pitches to hit.
In the National League, no player has more to prove in 2011 than Albert Pujols, namely, that he is worth the 10 year, $300 million contract he reportedly is seeking. Last month, all reports indicated that the St. Louis Cardinals offered to make Pujols the fourth or fifth highest paid player at his position, that the average yearly value of the contract was several million dollars short of Pujols' goal, and that the sides were never even close to a deal prior to reaching his self-imposed deadline for negotiating. In 2011, Pujols must prove to the Cardinals, the Cubs, and any host of teams that have a potential vacancy at first base, that he is worth the commitment he is seeking. He may be the odds-on favorite to win the NL MVP award each season, but it will not be enough this year to simply bat .300, hit 35 home runs and drive in 110 runs. Pujols needs a season for the ages, a season in which he is leading the Triple Crown race entering September, a season in which he hits 50 home runs and manages to make the Cardinals a competitive team. If he has that season, he will easily win the MVP and force the Cardinals ownership to essentially write him a $300 million check. If any player in baseball can, on demand, come up with that kind of season, it is Albert Pujols.
Dark Horse: If Giants catcher Buster Posey is the real deal, if he plays great defense, bats like he did in the World Series, and keeps the Giants competitive, he's going to get a lot of votes. Like Joe Mauer a few years ago, Posey might become a household name in 2011, if he is not already.
Showing posts with label Albert Pujols. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Albert Pujols. Show all posts
Friday, March 25, 2011
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
The Contract
Welcome to the first post in my blog, Twins Fan From Afar. Yes, I have entered the 2000s. I don't have a Facebook or Myspace page, and I strongly prefer CDs to anything on an Ipod, but I finally decided to begin sharing my thoughts, mostly on the Minnesota Twins and Major League Ball, on the internet, after commenting on many, many Twins blogs and Star Tribune articles over the past several years.
I thought I might be just a bit late on my first subject, Joe Mauer's contract extension, but wouldn't you know, in nearly every article written about Mauer (even today's blurbs about his knee injection, see http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/116704389.html) are comments attacking Mauer for his $183 million, and the Twins for agreeing to such an extension. I have about had it.
Although I agree at the outset that Mauer's on-the-field contributions probably won't be worth $23 million a year, especially when he's 34 and no longer catching, this is old news. Get over it. Those of us fans who are over 20 lived through a decade (roughly 1992-2000) of simply awful baseball. If you don't remember, let me remind you: the Saints regularly outdrew the Twins, Pat Mears and Todd Walker were supposed to become stars of the team, and an over-the-hill Dave Winfield was probably the biggest attraction of 1993. Even after the team became competitive in the 2000s, it, for whatever reason, was unable to re-sign free agents like Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. Then came Target Field.
I went there for a game against the Rangers last June (incidentally, the game that ended with Orlando and Denard colliding in shallow center), and it truly is the best place to watch a game. The bottom line is that Target Field revenue has allowed ownership to nearly double the payroll over what it was the last year at the Metrodome. Twins Fans Rejoiced.
And most rejoiced when the Hometown Hero signed an extension last year during Spring Training. This signing represented a sea change for the Twins, in years, dollars and philosophy. Make no mistake: Mauer is overpaid at $23 million a year, especially given his propensity for injury, and the fact that his power numbers significantly declined in 2010. That being said, on the basis of other, more recent contracts (see Howard, Ryan; Werth, Jason; Crawford, Carl), and what we all know what will happen sometime in 2011 or 2012 (Pujols, Albert), it is evident to me that Mauer was paid in line with what other stars get paid. And, even if you dislike the guy, and are one of the people that refer to him as "Slappy Joe" (how could you?), it is undisputed that he is a star. Between the batting titles, video game covers and shampoo commercials, our Joe is the face of the Twins, and one of the faces of MLB.
When Pujols signs for close to $30 million annually, and is getting paid that amount when he is 40, Mauer's $23 million might not look so bad. Mauer, as has been stated by all Star Tribune writers and Ron Gardenhire, has the athletic ability to play a corner infield or corner outfield position and, playing in the AL, can DH. For Pete's' sake, the guy is so versatile that he likely could be playing in the NFL now. Pujols, should he stay in the NL, will be locked in at first base long after his power numbers decline. At some point, he will be a .270 hitting, 20 HR 1B earning a record contract (no disrespect intended - Pujols is the best current player, of course, and I hope he restores the home run title to a non-juicer). For my money, and for the Twins' money, Mauer is more versatile, and I have no doubt he has the swing to bat over .300 until he is 40 and has 3,000 hits, and I have no doubt that he will have decent production along the way, even with the spacious dimensions of Target Field.
Bottom line: as of 2011, the going rate for a star player is over $20 million a year, and this off-season saw no shortage of long-term contracts. The Twins, with their new revenue stream, signed their star hometown player to the first large, long-term contract since I have been around. Even after a (somewhat) disappointing 2010, I have no doubt that, were Mauer to have hit the open market this winter, many teams would have offered him the years, and more money, than he contracted for. Don't get me wrong, this was no hometown discount, but it was the first in what I hope is a new ability for the Twins to sign deserving players to long-term, market rate contracts.
I thought I might be just a bit late on my first subject, Joe Mauer's contract extension, but wouldn't you know, in nearly every article written about Mauer (even today's blurbs about his knee injection, see http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/116704389.html) are comments attacking Mauer for his $183 million, and the Twins for agreeing to such an extension. I have about had it.
Although I agree at the outset that Mauer's on-the-field contributions probably won't be worth $23 million a year, especially when he's 34 and no longer catching, this is old news. Get over it. Those of us fans who are over 20 lived through a decade (roughly 1992-2000) of simply awful baseball. If you don't remember, let me remind you: the Saints regularly outdrew the Twins, Pat Mears and Todd Walker were supposed to become stars of the team, and an over-the-hill Dave Winfield was probably the biggest attraction of 1993. Even after the team became competitive in the 2000s, it, for whatever reason, was unable to re-sign free agents like Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. Then came Target Field.
I went there for a game against the Rangers last June (incidentally, the game that ended with Orlando and Denard colliding in shallow center), and it truly is the best place to watch a game. The bottom line is that Target Field revenue has allowed ownership to nearly double the payroll over what it was the last year at the Metrodome. Twins Fans Rejoiced.
And most rejoiced when the Hometown Hero signed an extension last year during Spring Training. This signing represented a sea change for the Twins, in years, dollars and philosophy. Make no mistake: Mauer is overpaid at $23 million a year, especially given his propensity for injury, and the fact that his power numbers significantly declined in 2010. That being said, on the basis of other, more recent contracts (see Howard, Ryan; Werth, Jason; Crawford, Carl), and what we all know what will happen sometime in 2011 or 2012 (Pujols, Albert), it is evident to me that Mauer was paid in line with what other stars get paid. And, even if you dislike the guy, and are one of the people that refer to him as "Slappy Joe" (how could you?), it is undisputed that he is a star. Between the batting titles, video game covers and shampoo commercials, our Joe is the face of the Twins, and one of the faces of MLB.
When Pujols signs for close to $30 million annually, and is getting paid that amount when he is 40, Mauer's $23 million might not look so bad. Mauer, as has been stated by all Star Tribune writers and Ron Gardenhire, has the athletic ability to play a corner infield or corner outfield position and, playing in the AL, can DH. For Pete's' sake, the guy is so versatile that he likely could be playing in the NFL now. Pujols, should he stay in the NL, will be locked in at first base long after his power numbers decline. At some point, he will be a .270 hitting, 20 HR 1B earning a record contract (no disrespect intended - Pujols is the best current player, of course, and I hope he restores the home run title to a non-juicer). For my money, and for the Twins' money, Mauer is more versatile, and I have no doubt he has the swing to bat over .300 until he is 40 and has 3,000 hits, and I have no doubt that he will have decent production along the way, even with the spacious dimensions of Target Field.
Bottom line: as of 2011, the going rate for a star player is over $20 million a year, and this off-season saw no shortage of long-term contracts. The Twins, with their new revenue stream, signed their star hometown player to the first large, long-term contract since I have been around. Even after a (somewhat) disappointing 2010, I have no doubt that, were Mauer to have hit the open market this winter, many teams would have offered him the years, and more money, than he contracted for. Don't get me wrong, this was no hometown discount, but it was the first in what I hope is a new ability for the Twins to sign deserving players to long-term, market rate contracts.
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