Time to Question Mauer's Health Yet?



Since taking a foul tip to the knee
last week, Joe Mauer hasn't been
the same

 Since Joe Mauer dinged his knee taking a foul tip on April 29, he has not been the same player. Yes, he missed only one game, which is a testament to the fact that he is resolute in his desire to to play this season. That, especially when compared to the way Mauer and the organization dealt with his injuries last season, should be commended. But what about the product on the field?

Last week, I wrote about Mauer's ground ball rate -- specifically, the fact that we should keep an eye on the frequency of his ground outs second base as a possible indicator of his health. To sum up that post: In Mauer's 2009 MVP season, he hit into the 4-3 putout 12.2 percent of the time; in 2011, when he was injured, but before being placed on the disabled list, that figure was 26.3 percent. And as of last Tuesday's game (when I wrote the post), that number was 18.2 percent.

The last four games (since I wrote the post about the ground ball rate) have not been good offensively for Mauer, and that has me worried. Take a look at his Fangraphs game log, and tell me if you don't agree. In 16 plate appearances (14 at-bats because Mauer walked twice), Joe has 1 hit -- an infield single to shortstop. He has grounded out to second base 6 times in those 14 at-bats, including one double play grounder. Only 4 balls have left the infield -- all flyouts. And -- possibly the worst sign for Mauer -- not a single line drive. Horrible numbers from our former MVP and team leader. His percentage of at-bats that result in grounders to second is now at just under 21 percent on the season.

I don't want to make a mountain out of a molehill. In Mauer's defense, Jered Weaver and Felix Hernandez pitched 2 out of those 4 games, and they are, of course, very good pitchers. And the sample size is still small. But don't we expect more from Mauer against good pitchers (than we do, say, Drew Butera), and isn't that a fair expectation? Deep down, don't you think that something is wrong with Mauer -- i.e., that the knee is really plaguing him and that he's just grinding out at-bats? Admittedly, I didn't watch this weekend's games, but from what I listened to on the radio, they described Mauer as "cautious" when he was running.

For those that are still stuck believing that Mauer's best -- or only -- value to this team is as the starting catcher for the next several years, this is what we have to look forward to. Yes, there are going to be weeks-long and months-long stretches of great baseball from Mauer, even if he remains at catcher forever. But there are also going to be stretches where his legs and knees are so banged up that he can't get any power into his swing. Aside from that "clutch" infield single (which I read could have been ruled an error), Mauer hasn't provided very much value to the Twins in the past week. This isn't my rally cry to move Mauer from catcher immediately and forever, as much as it is a recognition -- maybe the fifth or eighth or tenth recognition in the past several years -- that, as he ages, Mauer's best "value" to the Twins is being healthy and on the field, regardless of the position. 

Joe Mauer and the Infamous 4-3 Putout

Joe Mauer 4-3 putouts: That's the
way he rolls

One of the more common Joe Mauer complaints in Twins Territory is that he grounds out to second base, and does it a lot. This phenomenon was on display last night in Anaheim, when Mauer was retired on a 4-3 putout in each of his three at-bats. And if you go back to his last plate appearance on April 29, before his day off against lefty C.J. Wilson, Mauer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play. That marks 4 straight at-bats in which Mauer has been retired on a grounder to second.

As we all know, everything with Mauer is viewed under a microscope -- some things fairly, and others unfairly. It's become common to bemoan these outs. On the one hand, a weak grounder to second base, repeated time after time, is frustrating output from your #3 hitter that you expect to hit the ball hard, and often in the air. On the other hand, though, we all know that Mauer's swing is best when he's hitting line drives and hard grounders, and many of these 4-3 putouts this season have been well struck -- it's just that they were within range of the second baseman. Some of this, too, is perception versus reality -- much like I noted last week with respect to Mauer's clutch hitting ability: some Twins fans are now on the lookout for Mauer groundouts to second base. In his brief time before he hit the disabled list in 2011, it seemed like grounding out to second was all that he did, so perhaps there's reason for the fan concern.

Let's see what the numbers suggest. For purposes of consistency, a ground out to second also includes an error charged to the second baseman on a Mauer grounder, as well as a fielder's choice grounder to second where Mauer reached, and of course a grounder to second that started a double play. Thanks to Fangraphs, I can tell you that Mauer has grounded out to second base 18 times in 99 plate appearances thus far in 2012. That corresponds to roughly 18.2 percent of the time. This season, Mauer has grounded out to second more often that he has lined out or flown out to left and center field, combined (13 times). Interestingly, Fangraphs indicates that Mauer hasn't once flown out or lined out to right field all season. Is that possible? The fact that the groundouts seem to come in bunches -- 4 in his past 4 plate appearances as I mentioned, 2 in a row on April 17 against CC Sabathia, and 2 in a row on April 18 against Hideki Kuroda -- certainly doesn't help Mauer's case with respect to fans' perception of the frequency of Mauer 4-3 plays.

For comparison, let's look first to Mauer's grounders to second in that brief period of time in 2011 before he was placed on the disabled list. Keep in mind when evaluating these numbers that he was suffering from bilateral leg weakness, and perhaps even Lyme's Disease and a broken heart. In 38 plate appearances, Mauer hit into the ol' 4-3 10 times, which translates into 26.3 percent. A smaller sample size, indeed, but if your perception was that Mauer was grounding out to second more frequently, you were correct. 3 of the groundouts also came in succession.

Now let's look at Mauer's 2009 MVP season. In 606 plate appearances in that historic season, Mauer grounded out to second 74 times, which corresponds to 12.2 percent. This number probably makes sense to you: my recollection of 2009 is that Mauer hit the ball in the air at a higher rate -- not just the home runs, but the doubles, as well.

So, after the first month of the 2012 season, Mauer, at 18.2 percent is roughly in-between his 2009 4-3 putout rate (12.2 percent), and his 2011 rate (26.3 percent) that he compiled while playing injured. The takeaway from these numbers is that, yes, a Joe Mauer groundout to second base has been a common occurrence in 2012, more prevalent than when Mauer was playing his best baseball. And it's probably always going to be the most common method of retiring Mauer. But even in 2009, Mauer was still hitting into the 4-3, or the 4-6-3, over 10 percent of the time. For 2012, if Mauer can start to turn into line drives just a few of those balls that are currently grounders, he'll see that batting average creep up, and the 4-3 percentage go down closer toward that 2009 figure. On the other hand, though, if that 18.2 percent suddenly hits 25 percent, I'm going to begin to wonder how Mauer's body is handling the grind of catching, and if his lower body is as strong as it should be.