Time to Question Mauer's Health Yet?



Since taking a foul tip to the knee
last week, Joe Mauer hasn't been
the same

 Since Joe Mauer dinged his knee taking a foul tip on April 29, he has not been the same player. Yes, he missed only one game, which is a testament to the fact that he is resolute in his desire to to play this season. That, especially when compared to the way Mauer and the organization dealt with his injuries last season, should be commended. But what about the product on the field?

Last week, I wrote about Mauer's ground ball rate -- specifically, the fact that we should keep an eye on the frequency of his ground outs second base as a possible indicator of his health. To sum up that post: In Mauer's 2009 MVP season, he hit into the 4-3 putout 12.2 percent of the time; in 2011, when he was injured, but before being placed on the disabled list, that figure was 26.3 percent. And as of last Tuesday's game (when I wrote the post), that number was 18.2 percent.

The last four games (since I wrote the post about the ground ball rate) have not been good offensively for Mauer, and that has me worried. Take a look at his Fangraphs game log, and tell me if you don't agree. In 16 plate appearances (14 at-bats because Mauer walked twice), Joe has 1 hit -- an infield single to shortstop. He has grounded out to second base 6 times in those 14 at-bats, including one double play grounder. Only 4 balls have left the infield -- all flyouts. And -- possibly the worst sign for Mauer -- not a single line drive. Horrible numbers from our former MVP and team leader. His percentage of at-bats that result in grounders to second is now at just under 21 percent on the season.

I don't want to make a mountain out of a molehill. In Mauer's defense, Jered Weaver and Felix Hernandez pitched 2 out of those 4 games, and they are, of course, very good pitchers. And the sample size is still small. But don't we expect more from Mauer against good pitchers (than we do, say, Drew Butera), and isn't that a fair expectation? Deep down, don't you think that something is wrong with Mauer -- i.e., that the knee is really plaguing him and that he's just grinding out at-bats? Admittedly, I didn't watch this weekend's games, but from what I listened to on the radio, they described Mauer as "cautious" when he was running.

For those that are still stuck believing that Mauer's best -- or only -- value to this team is as the starting catcher for the next several years, this is what we have to look forward to. Yes, there are going to be weeks-long and months-long stretches of great baseball from Mauer, even if he remains at catcher forever. But there are also going to be stretches where his legs and knees are so banged up that he can't get any power into his swing. Aside from that "clutch" infield single (which I read could have been ruled an error), Mauer hasn't provided very much value to the Twins in the past week. This isn't my rally cry to move Mauer from catcher immediately and forever, as much as it is a recognition -- maybe the fifth or eighth or tenth recognition in the past several years -- that, as he ages, Mauer's best "value" to the Twins is being healthy and on the field, regardless of the position. 

The Mystery of Safeco Field



The Twins have not realized much success
in Seattle lately

 There are some teams that, for no reason in particular, the Twins seem to struggle against on the road. No, I'm not talking about the Yankees or the Rangers here; I can list some solid explanations for the Twins' lackluster performances against those teams. I'm talking specifically about the Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners, usually bringing up the rear of the AL West, seem to turn it on when they play the Twins at Safeco. Here's a recent history of the Twins-Mariners season series: Last season, the Twins were 3-5 in their season series against Seattle (1-1 at Safeco). Our good team from 2010 managed a 6-4 record (3-4 at Safeco), our 2009 team went 5-5 (1-2 at Safeco), and the 2008 Twins went 5-4 against the Mariners (2-4 at Safeco). You have to go back all the way to 2007, when that year's Twins team went 6-3 against Seattle, and had a 5-1 record at Safeco, in order to find the last time that we posted a winning season series at Safeco. If you add it up, the Twins are 7-11 at Safeco in that 2008-2012 period, against a team that is usually among the worst in baseball. Just for reference, here is Seattle's winning percentage each year from 2007-2012: .543; .377; .525; .377; .414; .407.

It's curious. Yes, Seattle has had some great pitchers over the last few seasons, like Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda, who are always formidable opponents. So it's never going to be an "easy" road series when you draw King Felix. And yes, Safeco is known as a pitchers' park -- but so is Target Field, where our 2010 team went 3-0 against the Mariners. I wonder what it is about Safeco that's bogging down the Twins? On paper, Safeco would seem to be a match for most Twins teams: good for our "pitching to contact" philosophy and large gaps for our speedy hitters -- much like Target Field. But for whatever reason, it hasn't translated into success.

Most years, I stay up to watch the Seattle games, and am left at the end of the series feeling like the Twins missed an opportunity to gain some ground. Just generalizing -- they really seem to scuffle at the plate in Seattle. Whatever it is that has prevented the Twins from realizing much success at Safeco these past few seasons, hopefully the fact that we have several new players this season, like Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit, will bring about a change in the way the Twins play the annual Seattle series.

Or, perhaps I should just hope that we get at least one base hit tonight.

How Are "True Aces" Acquired?

Seth Stohs over at Sethspeaks.net had a great column yesterday discussing "ace" pitchers and the Twins' perceived lack thereof. As always, the analysis was great, and the reader comments were interesting. In that piece, Seth listed 12 pitchers that he believed arguably qualified as "true aces," and here's that list: Justin Verlander; Clayton Kershaw; Tim Lincecum; CC Sabathia; Felix Hernandez; Cliff Lee; Roy Halladay; Jered Weaver; Dan Haren; Yovani Gallardo; Matt Cain; Chris Carpenter. Regardless of whether you agree with the assessment of these particular pitchers as aces, I think most would agree that this constitutes a solid list of most of the dominant pitchers in baseball right now. I'd personally be happy with any of them popping up in the Twins' starting rotation.

I'm going to piggyback off of Seth's post because it was interesting to me to think specifically about how these true aces were acquired by their present team, and where they were drafted. So I want to take a quick look individually at these pitchers to see if there are any trends, and to see what acquiring teams have given up in order to get a true ace. I didn't include the contract values -- Seth has them over in his piece (but here's a spoiler alert -- ace pitchers are pretty expensive!!).

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers: 2nd overall pick of 2004 amateur draft; was drafted by the Tigers and is under contract with Tigers through 2015.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers: 7th overall pick of 2006 amateur draft; was drafted by the Dodgers, and will become a free agent in 2015.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants: 10th overall pick of 2006 amateur draft; was drafted by the Giants, and will become a free agent in 2014.

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees: 20th overall pick of 1998 amateur draft; was drafted by the Cleveland Indians and played with them until July, 2008, when he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers (along with Michael Brantley) for Rob Bryson (has yet to play in the major leagues), Zach Jackson and Matt LaPorta. For the record, LaPorta was the 7th pick overall in the 2007 draft; Jackson was the 32nd overall pick in the 2004 draft; Brantley was the 205th overall pick in the 2005 draft; Bryson was the 932nd pick (31st round) in the 2006 draft. Sabathia became a free agent after the 2008 season, and is signed through 2016 with the Yankees with a vesting option for 2017.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: Signed as an amateur free agent in 2002 by the Mariners, and is set to become a free agent in 2015.

Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies: 105th overall pick (4th round) of the 2000 amateur draft by the Montreal Expos. Lee has bounced around over his career. In his most recent trade before reaching free agency, Lee was traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Texas Rangers for Matthew Lawson (has yet to play in the major leagues), Blake Beaven, Josh Lueke and Justin Smoak. Lawson was a 14th round pick in 2007; Beaven was the 17th overall pick in 2007; Lueke was a 16th round pick in 2007; and Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the 2008 draft. The Mariners also sent Mark Lowe, a 5th round pick in 2004, and some cash, to the Rangers to complete the deal.

Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies: 17th overall pick of 1995 amateur draft. In December, 2009, Halladay was traded with cash to the Phillies for Travis d'Arnaud (has yet to play in majors), Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor. Drabek was the 18th overall pick in the 2006 draft; Taylor was the 173rd pick (5th round) of the 2007 draft; d'Arnaud was the 37th overall pick (1st round) in the 2007 draft.

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 12th overall pick of the 2004 amateur draft; under contract with the Angels through 2016.

Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 72nd overall pick (2nd round) of 2001 amateur draft. In July, 2010, Haren was traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Angels for a player to be named later, Patrick Corbin (has yet to play in majors), Rafael Rodriguez and Joe Saunders. Corbin was a 2nd round pick in 2009; Rodriguez signed as an amateur free agent in 2001; Saunders was the 12th overall pick of the 2002 amateur draft. The Angels sent Tyler Skaggs (has yet to play in majors), the 40th overall pick of the 2009 amateur draft, to the Diamondbacks, to complete the deal.

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers: 46th overall pick (2nd round) of 2004 amateur draft; under contract with Brewers through 2014 with a team option for 2015.

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants: 25th overall pick of 2002 amateur draft; under contract with the Giants through 2012.

Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals: 15th overall pick of 1993 amateur draft by the Toronto Blue Jays; released by the Blue Jays in October, 2002, and signed as a free agent by the Cardinals later that year. Under contract with Cardinals through 2013.

Just looking at this list, one thing becomes clear immediately: most of this talent was recognized by scouts, as 8 of the 11 players on this list that participated in the amateur draft were drafted in the first round; only Gallardo, Haren and Lee went after the first round; and King Felix was signed as an amateur free agent.

What about the players that teams have given up in order to acquire an ace? Not surprisingly, teams are giving up first round picks -- in some cases multiple first round picks -- to get an ace. Look at the Rangers' deal to get Cliff Lee: they gave up the 17th and 11th overall picks in the 2007 and 2008 draft to get Lee for half a season. Sure, Smoak hasn't exactly panned out yet, but many thought he would be a star.

One other pitcher that projects as a future ace -- or at least the Yankees think so -- is Michael Pineda. This 23 year-old, hard throwing righty was just traded from the Mariners to the Yankees, and the key piece of the exchange was Jesus Montero, undoubtedly the Yankees' top prospect. Pineda looked great the first half of 2011, but struggled in the second half. He ended up 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA in 171 innings. Though he projects as a future star, nothing is guaranteed. Montero looked good in a September call-up, posting a .328/.406/.590 line in 69 plate appearances. He projects to be a great hitter, and the Yankees gave him up (along with pitcher Hector Noesi), in exchange for Pineda and minor leaguer Jose Campos. Though Pineda doesn't yet belong on the list of ace pitchers, this move further demonstrates the hot commodity that is an ace -- or a potential ace.

So, Twins fans, would you give up one or more of Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, to get a "true ace?" How about our last couple 1st round picks, Levi Michael and Alex Wimmers? Would you give them up -- and everything that they might pan out to be -- for a "true ace" that could anchor the rotation for several years, but that would also command a $20 million salary? Because that, in the absence of good drafting, seems to be the going rate.

As always, I'm curious for your thoughts.

What's the Best Pitch in Baseball?

What's the best pitch in baseball? According to my American Legion coach, the answer is Strike 1. That's right, the best pitch in baseball is not Jim Hoey's 97 MPH fastball painting the black on the lower outside corner; it's not Bert Blyleven's curveball that buckled and humiliated right-handed batters for decades, and it's not Frankie V's change-up that helped propel the 1987 Twins to the World Series. Getting ahead in the count consistently is a better advantage than any one type of pitch in a hurler's arsenal.

Now, let's be clear: I am not suggesting that Twins pitchers should throw a first-pitch strike to every hitter, every game. We saw last night that Liriano got in trouble at the end of his outing, giving up 2 first-pitch home runs. He was tiring, he could not locate his pitches as well, and the Orioles made him pay. Major league batters and coaches are adept at catching onto trends and patterns, and it wouldn't take all game for them to realize that our pitcher has just thrown a belt-high, first pitch fastball to 25 batters in a row. I am, however, suggesting that the Twins do preach the right mentality in teaching and demanding control--specifically first-pitch strikes, from their throwers. And haven't we seen it from the other side, as well: How many Twins fans and bloggers have commented at the fat first pitches that Joe Mauer almost always takes for strikes, thus beginning many at-bats in the hole?

In 2010, Fransisco Liriano threw a first pitch strike to 61.7 % of batters faced. That is the highest such percentage of his career. The second highest figure for Liriano was in 2006, when he threw 60.5 % first pitch strikes. Unquestionably, those were Liriano's two best years in the big leagues, and certainly, he had many other things going for him, such as good velocity and that killer slider. But getting that first pitch strike on a consistent basis allowed Liriano to work ahead in the count, and allowed him leeway to work off the plate. This last statement is underscored by the fact that, in 2010, Liriano got opposing hitters to swing at 34.4 % of pitches outside of the strike zone. That figure, far and away, has been Liriano's career high. Regardless of whether the batter makes contact with those pitches swung at outside of the strike zone, common sense dictates that the batting average on those particular balls put in play is going to be relatively low.

So far, in 2011, Liriano has thrown first pitch strikes to just 49.5 % of opposing hitters, and hitters are swinging at 26 % of his pitches out of the strike zone. To be fair, these are small sample sizes, but for anyone that has watched Liriano pitch, he has been wild, has walked many batters (5 last night against one of the worst lineups in the American League), and has been working behind in the count so often that it often becomes uncomfortable watching him. Increasing his control on the first pitch (but not throwing meatballs) is the surest way for Liriano to regain his 2010 form. Starting 0-1 on two of every three batters achieves several things: it gives batters one less strike to wait for, thus decreasing their selectivity; it constitutes one less strike Liriano has to throw to get a K, which, as a power pitcher, he will hopefully do fairly often; it will lead to fewer walks; and it allows Liriano to expand the strike zone, thus inducing swings-and-misses on balls off the plate, and those weak choppers and pop-ups that we all love seeing.

Just for comparison, here are the 2010 first strike percentages of Roy Halladay (67.3%), and Felix Hernandez (61.1 %), the 2010 Cy Young award winners. When he is "on," as he was for a long stretch last year, I put Liriano's "stuff" right up there with these guys'. One step towards achieving ace status, then, is to start taking command of that strike zone on the first pitch. Get in the driver's seat, Frankie!