Rock Cats Report 2014.1

Nate Hanson celebrating a home run.
Courtesy of McClelland Miscellanea.

As of this writing, the New Britain Rock Cats sit at 4-6. It's important before reading this piece -- or really any piece related to baseball -- that we all realize that we're only 10 games (or so) into the season. Everything anyone says should be couched with the "small sample size" caveat. Still, though, it is worthwhile to start to look at how Twins' prospects are beginning to perform against what we, the fans, expect to see this season.

The Rock Cats seem ... serviceable. But something is missing this spring. I've been fortunate, since I began closely following this team in 2012, to have had at least 1 Top 10 Twins prospect on this team at pretty much all times. Aaron Hicks; Oswaldo Arcia; Trevor May; Alex Meyer; Miguel Sano; Eddie Rosario. Take a look for a second at Baseball America's 2014 Twins Top 10 Prospects List. The talent on that list is all above AA, below AA, injured (Sano & Buxton), or just elsewhere (Rosario). This will change, for sure. Once Buxton's wrist heals and he gets back into playing shape, he'll likely spend the rest of 2014 in New Britain. And that's just what this team needs: a game-changer. Eddie Rosario will also be back in New Britain later this season, I hope. And Miguel Sano will log another stint in Connecticut on his way back up.

For now, though, New Britain needs to make do with their current roster. Indeed, there are bright spots, including some MiLB veterans who have been performing well. Offensively, New Britain veteran (really, a super-veteran) Nate Hanson has been leading the offense, hitting .350/.372/.475 with 5 doubles and 7 RBIs in 10 games. He's hit safely in 8 of the 10 games. Aderlin Mejia, shortstop, has a line of .375/.464/.417, but also has 4 errors in 8 games. Let's not forget emerging prospect Kennys Vargas. He only has a .216/.302/.405 line, but has 2 of the Rock Cats' 3 home runs, a double, and 6 RBIs. Additionally, after starting out 2-for-20, Vargas is 6 for his last 17 (which includes both homers and the double).

Pitching results have been mixed. Pat Dean has had the most success of the starters, going 2-0 with a 4.76 ERA. He's struck out 12 and walked only 2 in 11 1/3 innings. DJ Baxendale, a really nice guy, hasn't had as much luck. After 2 starts, he has a 5.91 ERA. He's simply given up too many hits -- 14 in 10 2/3 innings. Atlanta Braves pick-up Sean Gilmartin had 1 good, and 1 bad start. Out of the bullpen, AJ Achter is already gone to Rochester (where he should have started in the first place). BJ Hermsen was recently reassigned to extended spring training, and former Twins reliever Matt Guerrier is now a member of the Rock Cats. Kind of interesting, to say the least. Adrian Salcedo, who I was looking forward to watching, has had a rough start, giving up runs in 2 of his 4 outings, including a 6 run 1/3-of-an-inning performance that will really skew your stat line. Ryan O'Rourke has been another bright spot in relief, giving up only 1 run in 4 appearances (3 2/3 innings).

One of the things Rock Cats manager Jeff Smith stressed at the Annual Welcome Home Dinner was that he believed the 2014 Rock Cats would play as a team, as opposed to some minor league teams comprised of a few talented individuals who care more about individual stats. It's a nice thing to say, of course, but I do see what he was getting at. Let's not forget -- Smith doesn't choose his roster; he gets who he gets. This current team -- composed largely of MiLB vets and AA first-timers, with no Top Prospects -- will have to learn to play as a team.

Plan to hear more from me next Tuesday -- if not before. The Rock Cats are wrapping up a road trip, and I should get to the ballpark over the weekend. A few things to watch for in the meantime: does Kennys Vargas continue to warm up to AA; how do the starting pitchers fare as their pitch limit increases (most are at a 75-85 pitch limit this early in the spring); and who steps up offensively and defensively while the Twins (and their fans) wait for Buxton to come back?

One final note: I spent a lot of time covering/following Trevor May, James Beresford and Alex Meyer the last couple seasons. They are all off to strong starts at AAA. Christopher Fee is doing a great job covering the Red Wings for TwinsDaily, so be sure to check out his stuff. I wouldn't be surprised if all three ended up with the Twins in 2014.

My Third Annual Rock Cats Welcome Home Dinner

The Rock Cats' Annual Welcome Home Dinner is one of my favorite events of the season. It's the first time the year's squad is assembled, it's a fun & truly minor league style event, and it never gets old watching the guys sign autographs for excited kids. This is my third such dinner. In 2012, Alex Wimmers sat at my table. Last spring, it was Jason Christian. Both have had, well, let's call it less than good luck since. Tonight it was D.J. Baxendale, the 23 year old Arkansas native who dominated the first half of 2013 in Ft. Myers, but struggled with the transition to AA. I'm looking for him to step up and lead the rotation this season.

I could go up and down the roster for you, but you can read that stuff elsewhere (and I can get another post out of that later). What's most interesting to me about this dinner -- and what I want to touch on -- is the moment of transition that we, the fans, catch the guys in at this point every year. Baxendale, for instance, was still in the process of figuring out his living arrangements. In fact, the team had just arrived in Connecticut on Monday (after a scrimmage Monday morning -- no time is wasted in Spring Training), with an off-day Tuesday to take care of rentals. A lot of the guys have cars shipped up from Florida. Well, most of the cars haven't arrived yet. So there they are, many seeing New Britain for the first time, with just a day or two to find lodging before the season -- and the grind -- starts. Sure, they're adults. But the older I get, the more they look like really large kids. Playing pro baseball is definitely a dream come true for each one of these guys, but it doesn't come without a bunch of sacrifices. Chief among them: certainty.

I also wanted to touch on the professionalism. I've said it before, but it's true: the Twins do a very good job, up and down the organization, of teaching their players to be respectful and friendly to fans. Believe me -- not every organization in baseball acts this way. The guys all signed autographs before the dinner, during, and even after as they were leaving. I watched them goof around with kids who were elated to be sitting next to pro ballplayers. Nate Hanson and A.J. Achter come to mind this year. By all accounts, both should have started the season in AAA, and I'm sure they are upset to be back in New Britain. Hanson, for instance, has been a Rock Cats player since the summer of 2011 (excepting 20 games in Rochester last season). I mean, the guy could be 3 years into a mortgage on a nice little piece of land in Connecticut. But there he was, saying hi to the people he recognized, signing autographs, and (on the surface) ignoring the fact that this was his third such dinner in New Britain.

I think this year's team will be solid. Yes, Buxton and Vargas need to drive the offense. But I'm looking forward to watching some quality pitching this season. I sense some good, low-scoring games in 2015.

Finally, I won a nice hooded sweatshirt. So it was a good night.

Prognosticating: 2014 Rock Cats Opening Day Lineup

There's a pretty good chance the next player added to this
wall of Rock Cats' alums will be suiting up for
them in 2014

It's one thing to predict an Opening Day lineup after things begin to shake out in Spring Training. It's another to do it a full month before pitchers and catchers arrive. So in the spirit of good fun, what follows is my January 26, 2014 prediction for the New Britain Rock Cats' Opening Day lineup. As you can see, the first several spots in my batting order pack a little punch. Between guys like Byron Buxton and Danny Santana that hit and have speed, and guys like Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas (throw in C.J. Ziegler, too) with power, this is an offense that should score some runs. Danny Ortiz and Matt Koch are no slouches, either!

Predicting the Opening Day starter is more or less impossible. Part of me wants to say Alex Meyer. I don't think there's any way he's joining the Twins to begin 2014, but the real question is whether his injury-plagued 2013 regular season temporarily stunted him. In other words, I tend to think that both Meyer and Miguel Sano could start in New Britain, but would be eligible to be promoted after just a month or so. If he's in New Britain, Meyer should be the Opening Day starter. But I'm going to predict that Meyer will join Trevor May and start 2014 at AAA Rochester. Instead, I think D.J. Baxendale, who was unstoppable at High-A Ft. Myers, but struggled considerably in New Britain, will get the nod. This is a big year for him.

1. Byron Buxton (CF)

2. Danny Santana (SS)

3. Miguel Sano (3B)**

4. Kennys Vargas (DH)

5. C.J. Ziegler (1B)

6. Daniel Ortiz (LF)

7. Mike Kvasnicka (RF)

7. Matt Koch (C)

9. Levi Michael (2B)

Pitcher: D.J. Baxendale

**This particular pick involves a little of my own personal bias. Let me explain. Part of the bias is because I want to see him play a few more games at AA because, well, that's where I go see baseball games. The other part is my opinion (admittedly, not a scout's opinion) of his play last summer. There was still work to be done on defense, and I really want to see him become even more willing to take a walk (I recall several at-bats where he'd swing at a questionable -- not hitters -- 3-and-1 pitch, when it very likely would have been ball 4). Can he make those improvements during Spring Training and at AAA? Certainly. Is there a little less stress for him to do it in New Britain? Perhaps. Finally, his health is still a question. Yes, all indications are that his elbow is in much better shape, but I'm not ready to believe that until I see him in the field throwing bullets to first base without effort. I'll be happy with any decision, aside from sending him to Minnesota to begin the season.

In the end, I bet I'm about half right on the players. Buxton, Vargas, Ziegler, Ortiz, Koch, Michael, seem locks.

So, where do you think I was right, and where'd I go wrong?

2016

Miguel Sano: Probably a cornerstone of the 2016 Twins

This year's Twins are better than the 2012 edition, who thankfully were better than the 2011 edition (well, it was hardly possible to be any worse). All signs indicate that the 2014 edition will continue on that track of improvement. The trend is slow. Painfully slow. But the direction is undoubtedly correct.

I'm no expert on the Twins' minor leagues, or on prospecting in general. For the past couple seasons, though, I have seen guys come and go -- and sometimes come back again -- from New Britain. I've been fortunate to watch Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Colabello, and even "new guys" like Alex Meyer and Trevor May. In the coming months, I'll watch Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario. In short, what I lack in expertise I make up in convenient geographical location.

I've been thinking a lot recently about when the Twins can next win the AL Central -- not just "compete for it" -- and what their roster might look like. My best guess for the year is 2016, and what follows is a bunch of crazy roster projections.

Keep in mind, many, many prospects don't pan out. Even guys that dominate all levels of the minors routinely fail when they get to the majors. Also keep in mind that my projections don't take into account front office moves that may (I'm cringing typing this) move a few of our best prospects in coming years. I hope Terry Ryan & Company are still in a mindset of collecting, not dealing, prospects, but you never know. With those caveats in mind, here's a position-by-position look at how the Twins are going to win the AL Central in 2016.

Catcher: Joe Mauer: He's still under contract, still catching some, and is now playing some combination of first base/DH/right field in the 50 percent of games he doesn't catch. He can still hit .300, by the way, because he's awesome at the game of baseball and his knees are getting very routine rest.

Josmil Pinto: I hope he continues to produce and grow as a catcher. There's no reason he can't be catching half the Twins' games in 2016 and batting .280 with some power while doing so. I've watched him play probably a dozen or so games, and he is a professional hitter.

Chris Herrmann: He can, at the very least, be a third catcher/outfielder. I have every confidence that he can, in time, be a .270 hitter with a good eye at the plate. An all-star -- probably not. But an affordable back-up that can call a good game, absolutely.

Third Base: Miguel Sano: He's not a gold glover, but we don't need that. He plays adequate defense and is a force to be reckoned with at the plate. As I'm writing this post, he was just promoted to AA New Britain, so rest assured the Twins are not going to let their top prospects languish in the minors. If Sano cannot hack it at third base, he can always play first. But here's a question -- when was the last time that you heard a legitimate source claim that Sano was a serious question at third? Probably the very beginning of this season or the end of last season. Clearly there has been improvement!

Centerfield: Aaron Hicks. He will continue to improve, just as he did in 2012 with the Rock Cats, and just as he is slowly doing in Minnesota.

Byron Buxton: He might be one of the top 2 prospects in baseball right now. It's crazy to type that, but legitimate writers claim that as the truth. Buxton has a long way to go before he pans out, but I have yet to read any report suggesting that he does not have the skill set to become a solid major league player.

Corner Outfield: Oswaldo Arcia. He's already gotten a taste in Minnesota this year, and I was pretty impressed. Although he slumped at the end, he didn't look in over his head, and he demonstrated why he was named the Twins' minor league hitter of the year last season. He's good now, but he'll be great in a few years.

Aaron Hicks: If Byron Buxton becomes the player we hope he becomes, he will eventually win the centerfield job, pushing Hicks to a corner position.

Angel Morales: I honestly don't know much about him, but am looking forward to finding out more. He's 23 and now is in AA.

Joe Mauer: The guy has a cannon, and is just an all-around great athlete. I predict he'll get a 20-30 games in left field or right field.

Danny Ortiz: I've really like what I've seen from him in New Britain. I'm not sure what the scouting reports say, but I saw a good arm, and his batting stats have been impressive.

Middle Infield: Eddie Rosario. Rosario is young, and is still learning to play second, but has demonstrated that he is up to the challenge. By the way, he's probably one of the best offensive second base prospects we have had since Chuck Knoblauch. As with Sano, the reports of Rosario's difficulty learning the position have subsided this season.

Brian Dozier: 2013 is a little better than 2012. His glove is better, anyway. Will he get it together? Time will tell. In any event, if he does, he'll be an affordable option in 2016.

Levi Michael: I have yet to see Michael play, so I'm hesitant to judge. I'd love to see him have a breakout second half of 2013 and turn some heads.

James Beresford: He was just promoted to AAA today. Congratulations, James! He's not a first-tier prospect, but he has an excellent glove. Can he continue to hit .300? We'll see. Beresford, however, could be a great utility infielder, as shortstop is his natural position. If he was called up to the Twins today, the bat would be an issue, but I'd put his glove right up there with anyone in this organization.

Pitching: In short, pick 5 starters from this list:

Alex Meyer
Trevor May
J.R. Berrios
Alex Wimmers
Kohl Stweart
Kyle Gibson
Logan Darnell
D.J. Baxendale
Sam Deduno
Scott Diamond
Ryan Eades

Now, add a bullpen out of guys that didn't quite make it.

This list of players, of course, is conjecture. Archives of this post will live on in 2016, and some parts will undoubtedly be laughable. Others, however, I'm willing to bet will be very accurate.

Here's the best part about this list: Every position player on it is home-grown. Every player on it will be under team control in 2016. In fact, with the exception of Joe Mauer's $23 million, there are few players on this list that would command more than a couple million dollars per season. In short, there's ample room to spend on free agents in an area of weakness. Otherwise stated, there's TONS of money on the table if the Twins want to add an extra power bat as a DH, a top-of-the-line shortstop, or an "ace pitcher" to lead our young rotation.

The other reason that I listed 2016 as the year to win the AL Central is because of the learning curve of major league baseball. If we can learn anything from watching Aaron Hicks this season, it's that there is a gigantic difference from the minors to the majors. Sano, Rosario, and even Meyer might all have tough rookie seasons. Picking 2016 gives these young guys a chance to make it through the league a couple times, learn from mistakes, and learn to succeed.

So you've heard it here first: Don't count on the Twins the next couple seasons, but by 2016 this is going to be a dominating team.

Miracle Pitching Can't Go Unnoticed

Yes, it's probably fair to say that the Miracle's offense has carried it -- having top offensive prospects like Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario in the same minor league lineup is usually a temporary, and great, phenomenon. But I would be remiss if I didn't mention the starting pitching.

Tonight's starter, D.J. Baxendale. Courtesy of TwinsTrivia.com

Through 2 innings tonight, Miracle starter D.J. Baxendale has 4 strikeouts and appears to be dominating a good Tampa Yankees roster. Going into this evening's game, Baxendale's WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched -- a good stat to measure a pitcher's general effectiveness over things he can control) was a mere 0.92. It's already lower, of course, given his solid first couple innings. He could pick up his 5th win tonight, which would give him at least a temporary lead in wins for the entire Florida State League.

But it hasn't just been Baxendale keeping this pitching staff afloat. As a team, the Miracle have a respectable 3.69 ERA going into tonight's game, and a more-than-respectable 183-60 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In other words, they've been striking out just more than 3 hitters for every 1 hitter they've walked.

This is important. The odds that Sano wears a Miracle uniform for all of 2013 get slimmer with each home run he hits. The pitching is going to have to be ready to pick up the slack when some of these top hitters get mid-season or late-season promotions.

 

Ft. Myers Miracle Blogapalooza!

Good Evening Twins Major and Minor League baseball fans!

I'm excited to be live-blogging, and live-tweeting, tonight's Ft. Myers Miracle vs. Tampa Yankees game.
Please feel free to leave a comment here at the blog, or hit me up on Twitter @mnfanfromafar.

I usually post on the New Britain Rock Cats, and the Twins of course, but this game is a great opportunity to talk about a few players who are likely to be future Rock Cats this season, and future Twins in years to come.

A couple game notes: The Miracle are a ridiculous 23-6 under new manager, and former Twin Doug Mientkiewicz. This has been a really exciting team to follow. D.J. Baxendale is on the mound tonight, with an impressive 4-0 record, and a very impressive 25/6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That's the kind of stat the Twins brass goes crazy for! Shortstop Adam Bryant was placed on the disabled list, which resulted in Aderlin Mejia getting a shot with the Miracle.

The last name I'll discuss, just for the moment, is Miguel Sano. I'm not certain that I've been as excited for a Twins prospect as I have been for Sano. He is tearing up the Florida State League, which is traditionally known as a pitchers' league: .385 average; 10 home runs ;12 multi-hit games, 7 multi-RBI games; 21-for-51 (.412) in last 14 games. The Twins traditionally have even their top prospects spend a lot of time at the High-A level, but you have to wonder if Sano will spend all of 2013 in a Miracle uniform.

That's it for right now. Please listen to the game FOR FREE, starting at 7:05 eastern time, here, follow along on the Miracle website here, and drop me a line!