My Third Annual Rock Cats Welcome Home Dinner

The Rock Cats' Annual Welcome Home Dinner is one of my favorite events of the season. It's the first time the year's squad is assembled, it's a fun & truly minor league style event, and it never gets old watching the guys sign autographs for excited kids. This is my third such dinner. In 2012, Alex Wimmers sat at my table. Last spring, it was Jason Christian. Both have had, well, let's call it less than good luck since. Tonight it was D.J. Baxendale, the 23 year old Arkansas native who dominated the first half of 2013 in Ft. Myers, but struggled with the transition to AA. I'm looking for him to step up and lead the rotation this season.

I could go up and down the roster for you, but you can read that stuff elsewhere (and I can get another post out of that later). What's most interesting to me about this dinner -- and what I want to touch on -- is the moment of transition that we, the fans, catch the guys in at this point every year. Baxendale, for instance, was still in the process of figuring out his living arrangements. In fact, the team had just arrived in Connecticut on Monday (after a scrimmage Monday morning -- no time is wasted in Spring Training), with an off-day Tuesday to take care of rentals. A lot of the guys have cars shipped up from Florida. Well, most of the cars haven't arrived yet. So there they are, many seeing New Britain for the first time, with just a day or two to find lodging before the season -- and the grind -- starts. Sure, they're adults. But the older I get, the more they look like really large kids. Playing pro baseball is definitely a dream come true for each one of these guys, but it doesn't come without a bunch of sacrifices. Chief among them: certainty.

I also wanted to touch on the professionalism. I've said it before, but it's true: the Twins do a very good job, up and down the organization, of teaching their players to be respectful and friendly to fans. Believe me -- not every organization in baseball acts this way. The guys all signed autographs before the dinner, during, and even after as they were leaving. I watched them goof around with kids who were elated to be sitting next to pro ballplayers. Nate Hanson and A.J. Achter come to mind this year. By all accounts, both should have started the season in AAA, and I'm sure they are upset to be back in New Britain. Hanson, for instance, has been a Rock Cats player since the summer of 2011 (excepting 20 games in Rochester last season). I mean, the guy could be 3 years into a mortgage on a nice little piece of land in Connecticut. But there he was, saying hi to the people he recognized, signing autographs, and (on the surface) ignoring the fact that this was his third such dinner in New Britain.

I think this year's team will be solid. Yes, Buxton and Vargas need to drive the offense. But I'm looking forward to watching some quality pitching this season. I sense some good, low-scoring games in 2015.

Finally, I won a nice hooded sweatshirt. So it was a good night.

2016

Miguel Sano: Probably a cornerstone of the 2016 Twins

This year's Twins are better than the 2012 edition, who thankfully were better than the 2011 edition (well, it was hardly possible to be any worse). All signs indicate that the 2014 edition will continue on that track of improvement. The trend is slow. Painfully slow. But the direction is undoubtedly correct.

I'm no expert on the Twins' minor leagues, or on prospecting in general. For the past couple seasons, though, I have seen guys come and go -- and sometimes come back again -- from New Britain. I've been fortunate to watch Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Colabello, and even "new guys" like Alex Meyer and Trevor May. In the coming months, I'll watch Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario. In short, what I lack in expertise I make up in convenient geographical location.

I've been thinking a lot recently about when the Twins can next win the AL Central -- not just "compete for it" -- and what their roster might look like. My best guess for the year is 2016, and what follows is a bunch of crazy roster projections.

Keep in mind, many, many prospects don't pan out. Even guys that dominate all levels of the minors routinely fail when they get to the majors. Also keep in mind that my projections don't take into account front office moves that may (I'm cringing typing this) move a few of our best prospects in coming years. I hope Terry Ryan & Company are still in a mindset of collecting, not dealing, prospects, but you never know. With those caveats in mind, here's a position-by-position look at how the Twins are going to win the AL Central in 2016.

Catcher: Joe Mauer: He's still under contract, still catching some, and is now playing some combination of first base/DH/right field in the 50 percent of games he doesn't catch. He can still hit .300, by the way, because he's awesome at the game of baseball and his knees are getting very routine rest.

Josmil Pinto: I hope he continues to produce and grow as a catcher. There's no reason he can't be catching half the Twins' games in 2016 and batting .280 with some power while doing so. I've watched him play probably a dozen or so games, and he is a professional hitter.

Chris Herrmann: He can, at the very least, be a third catcher/outfielder. I have every confidence that he can, in time, be a .270 hitter with a good eye at the plate. An all-star -- probably not. But an affordable back-up that can call a good game, absolutely.

Third Base: Miguel Sano: He's not a gold glover, but we don't need that. He plays adequate defense and is a force to be reckoned with at the plate. As I'm writing this post, he was just promoted to AA New Britain, so rest assured the Twins are not going to let their top prospects languish in the minors. If Sano cannot hack it at third base, he can always play first. But here's a question -- when was the last time that you heard a legitimate source claim that Sano was a serious question at third? Probably the very beginning of this season or the end of last season. Clearly there has been improvement!

Centerfield: Aaron Hicks. He will continue to improve, just as he did in 2012 with the Rock Cats, and just as he is slowly doing in Minnesota.

Byron Buxton: He might be one of the top 2 prospects in baseball right now. It's crazy to type that, but legitimate writers claim that as the truth. Buxton has a long way to go before he pans out, but I have yet to read any report suggesting that he does not have the skill set to become a solid major league player.

Corner Outfield: Oswaldo Arcia. He's already gotten a taste in Minnesota this year, and I was pretty impressed. Although he slumped at the end, he didn't look in over his head, and he demonstrated why he was named the Twins' minor league hitter of the year last season. He's good now, but he'll be great in a few years.

Aaron Hicks: If Byron Buxton becomes the player we hope he becomes, he will eventually win the centerfield job, pushing Hicks to a corner position.

Angel Morales: I honestly don't know much about him, but am looking forward to finding out more. He's 23 and now is in AA.

Joe Mauer: The guy has a cannon, and is just an all-around great athlete. I predict he'll get a 20-30 games in left field or right field.

Danny Ortiz: I've really like what I've seen from him in New Britain. I'm not sure what the scouting reports say, but I saw a good arm, and his batting stats have been impressive.

Middle Infield: Eddie Rosario. Rosario is young, and is still learning to play second, but has demonstrated that he is up to the challenge. By the way, he's probably one of the best offensive second base prospects we have had since Chuck Knoblauch. As with Sano, the reports of Rosario's difficulty learning the position have subsided this season.

Brian Dozier: 2013 is a little better than 2012. His glove is better, anyway. Will he get it together? Time will tell. In any event, if he does, he'll be an affordable option in 2016.

Levi Michael: I have yet to see Michael play, so I'm hesitant to judge. I'd love to see him have a breakout second half of 2013 and turn some heads.

James Beresford: He was just promoted to AAA today. Congratulations, James! He's not a first-tier prospect, but he has an excellent glove. Can he continue to hit .300? We'll see. Beresford, however, could be a great utility infielder, as shortstop is his natural position. If he was called up to the Twins today, the bat would be an issue, but I'd put his glove right up there with anyone in this organization.

Pitching: In short, pick 5 starters from this list:

Alex Meyer
Trevor May
J.R. Berrios
Alex Wimmers
Kohl Stweart
Kyle Gibson
Logan Darnell
D.J. Baxendale
Sam Deduno
Scott Diamond
Ryan Eades

Now, add a bullpen out of guys that didn't quite make it.

This list of players, of course, is conjecture. Archives of this post will live on in 2016, and some parts will undoubtedly be laughable. Others, however, I'm willing to bet will be very accurate.

Here's the best part about this list: Every position player on it is home-grown. Every player on it will be under team control in 2016. In fact, with the exception of Joe Mauer's $23 million, there are few players on this list that would command more than a couple million dollars per season. In short, there's ample room to spend on free agents in an area of weakness. Otherwise stated, there's TONS of money on the table if the Twins want to add an extra power bat as a DH, a top-of-the-line shortstop, or an "ace pitcher" to lead our young rotation.

The other reason that I listed 2016 as the year to win the AL Central is because of the learning curve of major league baseball. If we can learn anything from watching Aaron Hicks this season, it's that there is a gigantic difference from the minors to the majors. Sano, Rosario, and even Meyer might all have tough rookie seasons. Picking 2016 gives these young guys a chance to make it through the league a couple times, learn from mistakes, and learn to succeed.

So you've heard it here first: Don't count on the Twins the next couple seasons, but by 2016 this is going to be a dominating team.

Looking Ahead: Future Pitching Rotations and a "Forgotten" Prospect

Alex Wimmers: Let's Not Forget About Him

EDIT: The Twins have traded Ben Revere to the Phillies in exchange for starter Vance Worley and a pitching prospect, Trevor May. Worley is generally considered a #3 starter, and is also going to be under team control. May, 23, was rated Baseball America's 69th best prospect pre-2012. So already my post is obsolete. Add both of these guys to the mix, and congratulate Terry Ryan on a job well done (in my opinion).

It's no secret now that the Twins are essentially punting in 2013. It's disappointing. I felt it coming months ago (as did many of you). Make no mistake -- I'm not fine with it by any means. But I more or less accept it (or I'm just mentally tired of being angry about it), provided that this organization is willing to spend next season at this time to bring this team back into contention. Honestly, it's simply too draining to continue yelling at the organization to spend more money where there is not much hope of it happening.

It's also no secret that pitching seems to win championships, or at the very least, goes a long way toward getting a team into the playoffs. And of course, it's starting pitching that the Twins lack now. The Denard Span for Alex Meyer trade is -- potentially -- a big step toward helping shore up a future rotation. With that in mind, I want to take a quick look at who could comprise the Twins' rotation in 2014 or 2015, and what will be left to purchase on the open market.

Scott Diamond. Let's hope he continues to prove that he can be a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. Let's hope that he can improve with more experience. He would be affordable and under team control in 2014 and 2015.

Liam Hendriks/Sam Deduno: I hope one of these two players pans out as a #4 or #5 type starter. Something a little better than an "innings-eater." For the sake of this post, I'm just going to guess that one, but not both, will become a permanent starter. Again, both will be under team control and inexpensive in 2014 and 2015.

Alex Meyer: The Twins would not have made the Span trade if they did not believe that Meyer was a top-shelf prospect. I've read that he projects as a #2 or #3 pitcher. That's great. He can also throw 100 miles per hour. Accordingly, he becomes the organization's best pitching prospect. If he can stay healthy and successful and reach the majors in 2014, that is excellent. He, too, will be cheap for the next several years.

Kyle Gibson: What will 2013 bring for Gibson? In my view, a spot in the Twins' rotation is his to lose. Expectations should be low in 2013. So what if he has a little trouble adjusting to the majors? Let him get it out of his system in 2013, so that he's a better, more experienced pitcher in subsequent years, when wins will matter. Gibson is also cheap in 2014 and 2015.

And the player about whom not to forget: Alex Wimmers. I'm disappointed that he's apparently being written off by some Twins fans. Yes, he has had his share of mental (control) and physical (Tommy John) issues. So what? None of that really matters if he now has the ability to stay mentally and physically healthy. He also profiled as (probably) a #3 starter, maybe a #2 at his ceiling. He is older -- just having turned 24 last month -- so as long as he is healthy and dominant, the Twins will have no reason to hold him back in terms of development and advancement (but, of course, they would be prudent to limit his innings in his first season back after surgery). Even though Wimmers' anticipated debut was significantly delayed as a result of his surgery, he still could join the Twins' some time in 2014.

As I see it -- trying to be somewhat optimistic, but also realistic -- this organization has a few #3-type pitchers, a #2 pitcher in Meyer, and the possibility of #4 and #5 starters, all of whom could make close to league minimum in 2014 and 2015. Given these possibilities, acquiring an "ace" type pitcher for 2014, or even 2 very dominant and experienced pitchers, is absolutely doable, and affordable. And let's not forget J.R. Berrios. Because he is so new to the system, and to professional baseball, I didn't even mention him in this post as an option for 2014 or 2015. But he was successful in his first half-season of pro ball, so let's hope that he keeps it up and pushes for a spot -- whether he sticks as a starter or becomes a dominant reliever -- sooner, rather than later!

Yes, anything can happen. Diamond could prove to be a flash in the pan. Hendricks may never establish himself as a viable starter, and Deduno may never be able to sufficiently control that fastball. But for as much bad luck as the Twins have had the last couple years, just having 1 of those 3 pitchers turn into a reliable starter, and having Meyer and Wimmers reach close to their potential -- as they should be expected to -- and the 2014 or 2015 Twins' rotation, primarily composed of homegrown pitchers with hopefully a couple expensive studs, doesn't look too bad.

Joe Mauer and Runners in Scoring Position

Though he had 2 hits last night, Joe Mauer came up
short when it counted the most.

Regardless of what some people in Twins Territory might think, the fact of the matter is that Joe Mauer has been very solid in his career when there are runners in scoring position. You might even call him "clutch," if you are one who believes that such a thing as clutch hitting exists. For his career, Mauer is a .323 hitter. When there are runners in scoring position, he's a .339 hitter. When there are runners in scoring position and 2 outs, Mauer becomes a .348 hitter. There's data from 2004-2012 backing those stats up, so it's anything but a small sample size at this point.

Thus far in 2012, Mauer is batting .313, with 1 home run and 9 RBIs. He has played in every game this season, which is a great sign. It's an even better sign that he's playing, and being productive. Still, though, it's easy to remember a few occasions during the first month of 2012 where Mauer failed to get a runner home from third with less than two outs. One incident, of course, was last night, following Jamey Carroll's leadoff triple in the bottom of the 8th inning. The game was tied at 5, and I thought the Twins were going to win it. After working the count to 3-and-2, Mauer helplessly flailed at the next pitch and bounced out weakly to first base. I'm not sure how he didn't break his bat or throw his helmet in the dugout in disgust. But it had to be frustrating. The other game that comes to mind was the Twins' great come-from-behind victory over the Angels a couple weeks ago at Target Field, when both Mauer and Morneau failed to get a runner on third home. The Twins won that game, though, and Mauer and Morneau both homered, so presumably all was forgiven.

But still -- in this short sample size of April, 2012, doesn't it feel like Mauer has stranded a higher-than-normal percentage of runners in scoring position? After all, over the past 5 games, the team is batting .170 (8-for-47) with runners in scoring position. Well, it turns out that Mauer is consistent -- even this early in the season -- in that his average with runners in scoring position is higher than his batting average. He's batting .412 (7-for-17) with runners in scoring position this season, and an even .400 (2-for-5) with runners in scoring position and two outs. Small sample size, yes, but given the several years of career data, it seems that Mauer is doing what he always has done: perform better when it matters most. It's interesting, though, because I went to bed thinking about this question, and fully expected that his average with runners in scoring position would be very low this season. It's funny what your brain focuses on. Still, though, the Twins need Mauer to be consistently great when runners are on, and he wasn't last night. It cost them a run, and possibly the game. Despite having 2 hits and a walk before the failed 8th inning at-bat, hopefully Mauer will come back with a chip on his shoulder tonight.

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A quick New Britain Rock Cats update. In chilly conditions last night, the Rock Cats lost the series opener to the Portland Sea Dogs 5-3, despite outhitting Portland 10-8 and being the recipient of 2 Sea Dogs errors. Starter Steve Hirschfeld took his first loss of the season -- in fact, the first loss of the season for a New Britain starter. He went 5 and 2/3 innings, gave up 5 earned runs on 5 hits, walked 3 and struck out 3. He's 2-1 on the season now, and his ERA stands at 2.78. Blake Martin, David Bromberg and Luis Perdomo were almost perfect out of the bullpen, which is a good sign. The trio allowed no hits, walked 3 and struck out two. On offense, Evan Bigley and Estarlin De Los Santos each had 2 hits, and Chris Herrmann, Aaron Hicks, Deibinson Romero, Pedro Florimon, Nathan Hanson and Mark Dolenc all tallied 1 hit. Hanson, who had a double, drove in 2 runs, and Romero was responsible for the other RBI with a sacrifice fly. Much like their parent club, the Rock Cats scuffled with runners in scoring position, going 2-for-12. They will be back in action tonight. I plan to attend the game, so expect a better re-cap and some pictures tomorrow.

Finally, it was also announced that the Rock Cats placed starter Alex Wimmers on the disabled list with a right elbow strain. When I heard the announcement on AM radio, I believe the organization referred to the 7 day disabled list. The DL trip is no surprise, as Wimmers has not pitched since April 9. Here is the press release. Hopefully it's just a minor strain, and he has a speedy recovery.

Rock Cats Lose, Streak Halted at 6, and Where is Wimmers??

The New Britain Rock Cats lost a close game this afternoon, 2-1, to the Portland Sea Dogs. This was a pitcher's duel, to be sure. Starter Steve Hirschfeld pitched 7 strong innings for the Rock Cats, striking out 7 and walking none, to lower his ERA to 1.06. He surrendered just three hits. Blake Martin struck out 2 in a scoreless 8th. Luis Perdomo blew the save after allowing two walks and a double in the 9th, and then lost the game when, after intentionally walking the next batter, he gave up a walk-off single.

Offensively, the Rock Cats tallied only 3 hits all afternoon. Mark Dolenc, Aaron Hicks and Pedro Florimon constituted all the offense today, and the only run of the game came on a wild pitch in the first inning.

One interesting thing: It's been several days since Alex Wimmers pitched for New Britain. His last -- and only -- start was on April 9th. He pitched just under 5 innings, and was solid. He didn't appear to leave the game with any injury. But there have been 9 games since then. Here is who started for New Britain since Wimmers' last appearance:

Luke French
Andrew Albers
Jason Marquis
Steve Hirschfeld
Logan Darnell
Luke French
Andrew Albers
David Bromberg
Steve Hirschfeld

I was already beginning to get concerned, and then this very topic came up on the TwinsDaily discussion board, so I thought it would be worthwhile to at least mention that Wimmers has been absent from 9 games now. Was this related to Marquis getting work in with the Rock Cats? Who knows. I'll update if I find anything out when I go to tomorrow's game.

[Update: That was quick. Thanks to Seth Stohs at TwinsDaily, we now know that Wimmers has a sore back and a slight flexor strain, and will miss at least a couple starts. Thanks, Seth!]

Rebuilding the Minnesota Twins

This beautiful photo, taken by former Twin Michael Cuddyer,
illustrates the main concern for the Twins organization:
empty seats

The White Sox officially announced that they were rebuilding last December, when they traded pitcher Sergio Santos to the Toronto Blue Jays for a pitching prospect. At that time, General Manager Kenny Williams said, "It is the start of a rebuilding. You guys know I have not used that word in 12 years. It's the start of a rebuilding now." It's sort of rare for a front office to officially admit that a team is rebuilding, and you can see why -- there is a stigma attached to the word "rebuilding." Most often, it's very obvious from actions, rather than words, that a team is rebuilding. They will never admit it, but it's more than clear.

It's embarrassing, in any personal or professional endeavor, to admit that your Plan A, and perhaps Plan B and Plan C, didn't work. You have to go back to the drawing board completely, and it's going to cost you. With respect to Major League Baseball, it's going to cost you ticket sales, and everything that comes with putting people in your seats: concession and liquor revenue; merchandise revenue; parking revenue; and probably the ability to attract top talent to your team. The list goes on, I'm sure. Over the end of last season, and into the off-season, it seemed like the Twins were re-tooling -- or reloading, rather than rebuilding: a guy that left, like Michael Cuddyer, for instance, was replaced with a comparable, yet somewhat cheaper alternative, like Josh Willingham. Through these efforts, the Twins went into 2012 fielding a seemingly competitive team (not World Series competitive; just competitive in the sense they could win 81 games), but also reduced payroll. In the end, you definitely would not have called last offseason one of rebuilding.

And then the last 10 days happened. Scott Baker is done for this season without throwing a pitch, and his career as a Twin might be over. Nick Blackburn has been injured, though he is scheduled to pitch this week -- I'm not holding my breath there. Already, two of the most veteran arms are suspect. This doesn't take into account Francisco Liriano, who certainly is not pitching like it's a contract year. Offensively, Jamey Carroll has been mostly dreadful. Couldn't Brian Dozier do the job for less? He'll probably be given a shot next month, so we'll find out. Josh Willingham, great at the plate, has shown that he'd be better suited for designated hitter. This isn't just supposed to be a laundry list of complaints about my favorite team. I'm listing them to illustrate the massive holes that this team has -- even with a $100 million payroll.

The word "rebuilding" is loaded. When a GM utters that word, there's no going back. You are bound to lose ticket sales. At Target Field, commencing only its third year, an official period of rebuilding probably was not an option. But here's a question for you this morning: would the money the Twins would lose in, say, 2012 and 2013 by officially rebuilding, be less than or greater than the money they could stand to lose in the future, say, 2014-2016, if their failure now to officially rebuild and sell off tradeable contracts comes back to bite them in the form of 5 or 6 sustained years of non-winning teams, versus just 2 or 3? Long-winded question, I know. I don't know the answer, but I think it's worth discussing.

Right now, that's my worry. Yes, there are some great prospects coming up. We should be excited by guys like Miguel Sano and Alex Wimmers. But they -- especially Sano -- are some time away from arriving. If the Twins continue the subpar play into May, and then June, I'm hoping that we see some major moves for the long-term health of this organization. That's tough to say for the fan in me that likes each of these players for different reasons, but the Twins might have an opportunity to do what they failed to do at the deadline last year -- move competitive players for decent prospects. If that's the case -- and for the record I hope this team gets going and puts posts like this to rest -- I hope that the front office acts this time around. Act for fans of the Twins organization; act for 2014 and beyond.

I Can Fix the Pitching Rotation . . . for 2014

This season, the Twins are shelling out $28.25 million on their intended starting pitching staff. Here's the breakdown:

Twins fans are wondering when, and if, Kyle Gibson
will become part of the Twins' rotation

Scott Baker (will not pitch an inning this season): $6.5 million

Nick Blackburn: $4.75 million

Francisco Liriano: $5.5 million

Carl Pavano: $8.5 million

Jason Marquis: $3 million

As you can see, it adds up pretty fast, and no one player is making close to league minimum. Also, a few of these contracts aren't particularly good. Pavano is overpaid for what he produces (aside from the fact that he will probably pitch 200 innings this season), and I believe that the Twins could have done better for $3 million than Marquis, or could, at this point, just give the spot to a young guy.

It's no surprise that there will be massive turnover in this rotation over the next couple seasons. In fact, none of these guys is under contract for 2014. It seems as if Baker's time in Minnesota is likely over, unless he wants to come back to the Twins at a lower amount than the $9.5 million 2013 team option that will most certainly be declined. I guess that's a possibility. For right now, though, let's just assume, for what I'm about to propose, that Baker is out of the scenario. Additionally, the Twins hold an $8 million option on Nick Blackburn for 2014. For right now, I'll assume that they decline that option. Unless Blackburn can extended his perennial April and May success into the hot summer months, it's a lot of money to spend on a pitcher that can't consistently deliver quality starts.

The entire landscape of the Twins -- or at least many aspects of it -- could be very different in 2014. Justin Morneau might not be with the team, although I hope that's not the case. Denard Span could be traded as early as this season, especially if he remains healthy and it appears that Joe Benson is ready to take over in center field as part of a rebuild. Danny Valencia's job could have been usurped by Miguel Sano. And it's almost a foregone conclusion that Brian Dozier will be playing shortstop for the foreseeable future. In all, that sounds to me like the potential for a lot of contracts in 2014 that are close to league minimum, which is good news for the budget conscious Twins.

In my mind, some of that extra money saved in position player salaries would be well spend on pitching. Here's what I propose to get this team's pitching back on track for 2014. And I can do it for roughly the same amount:

1) Major Free Agent Signing. I'm targeting Zack Greinke, specifically. I wrote last week for Through the Fence Baseball on why we should try to get him. The common refrain is that the Twins need a pitcher that can miss bats, and Greinke might be our most attainable shot. Is he an ace? Perhaps. Perhaps not. It depends on your definition. But if he signed in Minnesota, he would instantly become our best starting pitcher since Johan Santana. With pitching payroll coming off the books, and with Greinke becoming a free agent after this season, I say the Twins go after him. $18 million/season.

2) Kyle Gibson. Admittedly there is no longer certainty as to whether we will ever see the pitcher that he once was on the path to becoming. He's out until late this summer recovering from Tommy John surgery. But he was so close beforehand. Aaron Gleeman still has Gibson as the #7 Twins prospect, incidentally. Perhaps he will not become the #2 starter that we dreamed about, but there is still a good chance that Gibson will be a solid starter for years to come in Minnesota. And, importantly, he'll be making close to league minimum. $500,000 (I'm ballparking a little here. Depending on when any of these rookies come up, they will get raises, so it could be a little more than that.).

3) Alex Wimmers. He's on the fast track. Yes, he's not nearly as close to The Show as Gibson is, but by promoting him to AA this season after only 40 innings in Ft. Myers, the Twins have indicated in no uncertain terms that Wimmers, if productive, will quickly climb the ladder. If he's successful this season, there's a chance that he could crack the Twins rotation at some point in 2013. $500,000.

4) Liam Hendriks. It sounds like Hendriks will get a lot of experience in 2012 now that Baker is shelved. He's making $480,000 this season. Let's assume that he's successful and put him, for the sake of argument, at $1.5 million in 2014.

These four pitchers put us at roughly $20.5 million. Let's round up just for budgeting purposes, and call it $22 million. We have some money left over for the 5th pitcher, so let's use it!

5) Solid veteran free agent signing, or Francisco Liriano. Don't laugh. I still hold out hope that Liriano can get his head under control. Don't get me wrong -- these first two starts were pretty awful -- but he looked so good just two weeks ago. Can the Twins get him for $8 million a season in a deal before he hits free agency? Do they even want to? Would they be crazy to? Or, are they looking for him to throw well so they can trade him? Yes, the signs point to Liriano not being with the Twins next season, but it's an option.

If the Twins don't go that route, that leaves them about $8 million to sign a pitcher. That money should get you a solid, middle of the rotation guy.

So, for around $30 million, we're set for 2014, in my mind, anyway. These young pitchers salaries' will escalate, so it will not be a $30 million rotation for the long-term (although they would be under team control for a few more years, so the raises would be reasonable). And don't forget that the Twins hopefully will draft a pitcher with the second overall selection in the 2012 amateur draft. Maybe this guy will be MLB ready by 2015? And, I'm sure I have forgotten about another prospect or two, such as Adrian Salcedo, that could crack the rotation in another few years.

I recognize that writing a list like this is speculative in nature. There's a chance that neither Wimmers nor Gibson ever throws a pitch at Target Field. But there's also a good chance that they realize their potential. For all the rotten luck the Twins have had (Baker's injury, Liriano's Tommy John surgery and subsequent inconsistent performance, and Blackburn not living up to his contract), it's about time that a few things go in the Twins favor.

So there you have it. 2012 doesn't look like Minnesota's season to win it all, and there are still some contracts on the book in 2013 (Jamey Carroll, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, even Morneau because his future is so tentative) that may prevent the Twins from making a big move, but they should definitely court Greinke and try to build a young rotation around him.

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Finally, if you have time, check out my post today at Through the Fence Baseball, romanticizing, #34, Kirby Puckett.

My Evening with Alex Wimmers: 2012 Rock Cats Annual "Welcome Home" Dinner

As much as I love going to Twins games, there's something special about minor league baseball. It's intimate and personal. It's real and unadulterated -- both the good and the bad. Every year, the New Britain Rock Cats host a "welcome home" dinner for the team, the front office and the fans. This year, it was held at the New Britain Elks Lodge #957, just a stone's throw from New Britain stadium. Walking in, I was reminded of my own baseball past -- spaghetti dinners at the White Bear Lake VFW, with the veterans wanting to see what their $500 uniform sponsorship had purchased that season, and post-season American Legion awards banquets held in the basement of the Roseville American Legion.


This welcome home dinner felt substantially similar. We were in the basement of the lodge. It was warm, and the decor was old, as were some of the Elks in attendance. There were all sorts of fans there, including tons of kids, which was great. And most importantly, every player on the Rock Cats' roster was in attendance. And I'll say this: the Twins organization does a fantastic job of making sure that each and every player coming up through the system -- even those from the Dominican Republic that hardly speak a word of English -- does their very best to be polite and considerate to all fans. I saw a couple dozen kids walking around with baseballs signed by literally every player on the roster.

The Miller Lite was flowing. A beer at the Elks Lodge cost just a fraction of what it will cost tonight at the stadium for the opener, and was hardly more than the cost of buying beer at a liquor store. When I walked in, some of the players (all wearing name tags) were talking with each other near the bar. I'm sure some of them had not participated in too many of these events. And as I learned later, many were just getting to know each other.

At this dinner, one player sat at every table. The previous evening, I had told my brother-in-law that, if I got to choose one player to sit with us, it would be Alex Wimmers. I think he's interesting, and has great potential. You have to like the fact that, although he suffered great difficulties early last season, he came back and threw a no-hitter in his final start of 2011. Clearly, the Twins are high on Wimmers, because they promoted him to AA after only 40 innings in Ft. Myers. After we all sat down for dinner, Jeff Dooley, the voice of the Rock Cats, introduced the roster one-by-one, and assigned each player to a table. To my surprise, Wimmers was assigned to our table.

For three hours, talking to 6 adults and a 10 year-old kid across the table, Wimmers was awesome. He answered a lot of questions, initiated conversation on a bunch of different topics, and was especially cool with the little kid. We learned a lot of stuff. First, Wimmers had only been in Connecticut for a couple days, and had just found an apartment to rent (with 3 other players) that same day. He didn't have transportation to and from this event -- he didn't even know how he was getting home when the dinner ended! Like some others, he had shipped his car up from Ft. Myers, and it wasn't scheduled to arrive for a couple more days.

He talked a lot about coming up through the system. Wimmers really looks up to Joe Mauer. It almost sounded like hyperbole, but he talked about Mauer's work ethic and how all the younger guys learn a lot from Mauer just by being around him during drills and stuff. Wimmers said he got to pitch to Mauer one time in a spring game, and that it was pretty cool. Wimmers definitely believes he's on the fast track. According to Wimmers, Terry Ryan impressed on the AA crew that top performers will not necessarily have to stop in Rochester. Although that's the normal course of events, Ryan has made these guys believe that they are close to the show. Wimmers knows he has a lot to prove this season, and he looked like a guy ready to go to work. He was confident without being arrogant.

Wimmers also talked about the daily schedule. I once attended a baseball camp where the coaching staff called pitchers "non-athletes." Sort of jokingly, sort of not. Wimmers is an athlete. On his 4 non-pitching days, the physical routine is rigorous. Lots of lifting, running, stretching and throwing. No down time. And he looked the part. Having seen Scott Baker, Carl Pavano and a few other pitchers in person, Wimmers is in considerably better physical shape. He's pretty ripped, in fact.

The biggest thing, however, that I took out of my evening with Wimmers is that he's a young man pretty far away from home in Ohio. He's a Cincinnati Reds fan (and a Twins fan, of course). He's far away from his parents, who won't be in attendance at Rock Cats games. It sounds like he comes from a normal family. To Wimmers, his new family -- the Rock Cats -- is largely a cast of unknowns. Yes, he knows some of them from Spring Training, but others are strangers. He's living in a state he knows nothing about, working in a city that is not an especially fun place to hang out, and staying with 3 other pitchers in an apartment that's not even close to his place of work. It's an interesting life.

For a guy that signed a $1.332 million bonus to join the organization, Wimmers was down to earth. It's interesting to see both sides of the guy: the competitor that's confident that he has what it takes to make the show sooner rather than later; and the guy who was up at 6:30 that same morning trying to find a crappy apartment to share with three other players for the foreseeable future. And I bet the fans at other tables would tell you the same thing about their player, and so would the fans from the Beloit Snappers banquet and the Rochester Red Wings dinner.

Alex Wimmers and Twins Fan From Afar.
He knows how to look at the camera, at least.

The minor league baseball experience is real. It's visceral. Tonight, it smelled like an Elks Lodge basement. It's guys driving old cars to the stadium, players living together in strange apartment complexes in strange towns. It's playing double-headers to crowds of 2,000. It's signing autographs for kids that, in 2 days, might have completely forgotten who you are, or will use that same baseball that you autographed to play catch. It's having to attend fan banquets and lunches at Elks Lodges when you would rather be out partying or sleeping. Still, though, it was a pretty cool moment when Jeff Dooley mentioned that Mauer, Justin Morneau, David Ortiz, Torii Hunter, Scott Baker and Glen Perkins had all attended this event. The history and promise of it all -- that might be the best part of minor league baseball.

Tonight at New Britain Stadium the process starts anew. Wimmers is set to start Monday's game. As we were leaving, I told him that I hope he dominates, and that he's not in Connecticut for very long. Wimmers is smart -- he knows the potential vacancies with the Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano contracts expiring. He knows that Jason Marquis is probably a one-year deal. And he knows that Kyle Gibson is no longer on the fast track that he was just a year ago. In the Twins' system, there is room for good, young pitching. Hopefully Wimmers can put together a solid season, and be in Rochester -- or even Target Field -- sooner, rather than later.


I went into this event expecting roast beef and a fun time. I ended up with roast beef, a fun time and a chance to sit at a table with a guy who might, by 2014, have locked down a spot in the Twins' starting rotation.