2013 Rock Cats MVP: Josmil Pinto

Rock Cats, Red Wings, and now Twins catcher,
Josmil Pinto

I'll be the first to admit that the bulk of my Rock Cats coverage this season has centered around Miguel Sano. And it's for a reason -- he's the best prospect that has played for New Britain since I have been following the team. People were interested in watching grainy videos of his #PowerBanana shots, and were curious about his defensive progression. Also, he's simply an electric personality. Trust me, you'll experience it firsthand in Minnesota next season. But there was much more to this team than Sano. And in my opinion, Sano wasn't the team's most valuable player, even in the months he was here. That honor belongs to Josmil Pinto.

What a 6 months it's been for Josmil Pinto. He started in April as the Rockcats' everyday catcher, and produced offensively and defensively. In fact, he hit .308/.411/.482. Watching him in person several games, it wasn't just his line drive swing that impressed me. He is a decent catcher with a very good arm. He was promoted on August 1 to AAA Rochester. That alone is a significant accomplishment. But Pinto didn't slow down. He continued to excel as a Red Wing, hitting .314/.333/.486, and is now a member of the Twins. He'll see significant playing time behind the dish, I expect, as the Twins would be wise to exercise caution with Joe Mauer.

The Twins gave Pinto at least 2 major votes of confidence: first, giving him 2 in-season promotions; and second -- and just as important -- trading Drew Butera at the deadline. These moves suggest that, between Chris Herrmann and Pinto, the Twins' back-up catching spots are covered.

To be sure, many guys offered great contributions this season in New Britain. Miguel Sano, Danny Santana, Trevor May, Michael Tonkin, Daniel Ortiz, Alex Meyer (pre-injury), and Nate Hanson (played all over the field very well) all come to mind. But none of these guys was as valuable on both sides of the ball, and was as consistent, as Pinto. He hit over .300, had a good K-to-walk ratio, showed good power, and continued to improve on defense. Yes, he still has a ways to go on the defensive front, but it won't stop him from being able to contribute to the Twins this September and next season. And in my opinion, the fact that he left the Rock Cats the last few weeks (give or take) of the season wasn't significant enough for another of the guys previously listed to trump his place.

Being completely honest, my decision is swayed in part by Joe Mauer's concussion. The concept of "most valuable" is subjective. I happen to see more "value" in places where it's needed. A prospect's value isn't tied solely to his current team so much as it is to the organization as a whole. In the Twins' present situation, we might see more value in prospects at shortstop, third base, starting pitching (ouch) and catcher, especially considering Mauer's advancing age and the recent concussion. In short, Herrmann and Pinto will need to step up. If not in 2014, then in 2015. The fact that Pinto has taken major strides this season, while Herrmann had, for the most part, a rough go of it, reinforces that Pinto is going to get the shot to prove himself at the major league level.

Congratulations, Josmil Pinto, on one hell of a season.

Trevor May: Still Hopeful

It's been a consistently inconsistent season for Trevor May

Tonight's game was a laugher. No real offense to speak of for New Britain until the game was well out of hand. In fact, it's not even worth discussing Sano or Rosario (on offense, at least, where they were non-factors). Let's get right to what's worth covering tonight: Trevor May, and New Britain's defense.

I think I've seen Trevor May pitch probably 3 or 4 times this season. I'd be lying if I said that May hasn't been frustrating, or that the Twins really pulled one over on the Phillies. Don't get me wrong -- May has been OK -- but not fantastic any means. Control problems have plagued him. Tonight, though, was not a bad outing, despite what the box score will tell you. May started off the game hitting 92-94 on his fastball, 83ish with the change-up, and upper 70s or lower 80s with a nice curve.

May lasted 5 and 2/3 innings and gave up 4 runs on 10 hits; he took the loss. He also struck out 9 and walked only 1 -- the last hitter he faced. On the night, he threw 107 pitches, 75 of them for strikes. In fact, perhaps he was a little too accurate, or threw too many strikes, leading to the 10 hits? He threw strike 1 to the majority of batters, consistently working ahead in the count. He changed speeds, and got a fair number of weakly hit pitches that were either choppers or pop-outs. In short, he did what you would coach any pitcher to do. The results just weren't there. But there's more to the story than that.

New Hampshire's first run of the game, in the second inning, came partially as the result of an infield chopper up the middle that died behind the mound. The next batter hit a well struck opposite field double to right center. Just like that, 1-0 New Hampshire. In the third inning, a 2-out, 2-strike opposite field solo homer may have rattled May, as he gave up a single past Sano to the next batter, but then worked out of the jam.

Aside from these hiccups and despite the runs allowed, May pitched to, generally, what his ceiling should be: low/no walks; the ability to strike guys out; and the ability to induce weakly hit balls by changing speeds. Of the hits he gave up, probably 5 were well struck, 3 were extremely weak (i.e., choppers or flares), and a couple were average.

The fateful 6th inning started with a pop-up behind second base that went for a single (good argument for the "team error" category) after Eddie Rosario and Danny Santana either didn't communicate, or miscommunicated. Thereafter, a clean single, an out (a fantastic diving play by Miguel Sano), a double that Jordan Parraz just missed in CF (which then rolled to the wall) scored 2 more runs. And that was it for May.

That pop-up behind second base felt worse than a lead-off walk. It was deflating, in fact. You just knew that it was going to be the death knell for May, who already was tiring.

May deserved better this evening. Was he perfect? No. But it's important to note that 2 of the 4 runs were partially a result of infield singles -- one of which was really a "team error" type of play. And there was no offensive support, either. Sure, you can't take away infield singles, and sure, team errors happen, but I only count 2 things that went May's way this evening (Daniel Ortiz making a great play to throw out a runner headed to second, and Miguel Sano making a nice diving stop and strong throw to save a hit), while a few things definitely went the other way. It was 4 earned runs. It easily could (should?) have been 2 or 3, and May could (should?) have been able to complete 6 innings. Honestly, it's a strange, strange start to strike out 9 and walk 1 and not be able to make it through 6 innings.

I hope people aren't ready to relegate May to the bullpen for his career. Look at tonight's start: 100+ pitches, still hitting 92 on the gun on his fastball when he came out. 9 Ks; 1 walk (on his last batter when he was gassed). The ERA doesn't support it, but I would absolutely argue that May has been better this year than last. Sure, it's not ideal that he's repeating -- and not dominating -- AA, but there has been improvement. His walks per 9 innings have decreased about .5 walks per game; Ks per 9 are consistent; HRs allowed per 9 have decreased a little; but hits per 9 have increased. Kyle Gibson, who just debuted a couple months ago, is 25. May is still 23 for another month. Let's not talk about May as if he's a Chris Colabello-esque journeyman. Sure, Gibson was delayed as a result of Tommy John surgery and recovery, but my point is only that May isn't "old," even if he is repeating AA. I'm still hopeful that he can figure it out; it just May take a little while longer than Twins fans would prefer.

***************************************************************************
One final note. I'm having a Twitter contest to win a Rock Cats Joe Mauer bobblehead that was just given away in New Britain a few weeks ago. Of course, you have to be on Twitter and following me to enter.
Go here for details.

2016

Miguel Sano: Probably a cornerstone of the 2016 Twins

This year's Twins are better than the 2012 edition, who thankfully were better than the 2011 edition (well, it was hardly possible to be any worse). All signs indicate that the 2014 edition will continue on that track of improvement. The trend is slow. Painfully slow. But the direction is undoubtedly correct.

I'm no expert on the Twins' minor leagues, or on prospecting in general. For the past couple seasons, though, I have seen guys come and go -- and sometimes come back again -- from New Britain. I've been fortunate to watch Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Colabello, and even "new guys" like Alex Meyer and Trevor May. In the coming months, I'll watch Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario. In short, what I lack in expertise I make up in convenient geographical location.

I've been thinking a lot recently about when the Twins can next win the AL Central -- not just "compete for it" -- and what their roster might look like. My best guess for the year is 2016, and what follows is a bunch of crazy roster projections.

Keep in mind, many, many prospects don't pan out. Even guys that dominate all levels of the minors routinely fail when they get to the majors. Also keep in mind that my projections don't take into account front office moves that may (I'm cringing typing this) move a few of our best prospects in coming years. I hope Terry Ryan & Company are still in a mindset of collecting, not dealing, prospects, but you never know. With those caveats in mind, here's a position-by-position look at how the Twins are going to win the AL Central in 2016.

Catcher: Joe Mauer: He's still under contract, still catching some, and is now playing some combination of first base/DH/right field in the 50 percent of games he doesn't catch. He can still hit .300, by the way, because he's awesome at the game of baseball and his knees are getting very routine rest.

Josmil Pinto: I hope he continues to produce and grow as a catcher. There's no reason he can't be catching half the Twins' games in 2016 and batting .280 with some power while doing so. I've watched him play probably a dozen or so games, and he is a professional hitter.

Chris Herrmann: He can, at the very least, be a third catcher/outfielder. I have every confidence that he can, in time, be a .270 hitter with a good eye at the plate. An all-star -- probably not. But an affordable back-up that can call a good game, absolutely.

Third Base: Miguel Sano: He's not a gold glover, but we don't need that. He plays adequate defense and is a force to be reckoned with at the plate. As I'm writing this post, he was just promoted to AA New Britain, so rest assured the Twins are not going to let their top prospects languish in the minors. If Sano cannot hack it at third base, he can always play first. But here's a question -- when was the last time that you heard a legitimate source claim that Sano was a serious question at third? Probably the very beginning of this season or the end of last season. Clearly there has been improvement!

Centerfield: Aaron Hicks. He will continue to improve, just as he did in 2012 with the Rock Cats, and just as he is slowly doing in Minnesota.

Byron Buxton: He might be one of the top 2 prospects in baseball right now. It's crazy to type that, but legitimate writers claim that as the truth. Buxton has a long way to go before he pans out, but I have yet to read any report suggesting that he does not have the skill set to become a solid major league player.

Corner Outfield: Oswaldo Arcia. He's already gotten a taste in Minnesota this year, and I was pretty impressed. Although he slumped at the end, he didn't look in over his head, and he demonstrated why he was named the Twins' minor league hitter of the year last season. He's good now, but he'll be great in a few years.

Aaron Hicks: If Byron Buxton becomes the player we hope he becomes, he will eventually win the centerfield job, pushing Hicks to a corner position.

Angel Morales: I honestly don't know much about him, but am looking forward to finding out more. He's 23 and now is in AA.

Joe Mauer: The guy has a cannon, and is just an all-around great athlete. I predict he'll get a 20-30 games in left field or right field.

Danny Ortiz: I've really like what I've seen from him in New Britain. I'm not sure what the scouting reports say, but I saw a good arm, and his batting stats have been impressive.

Middle Infield: Eddie Rosario. Rosario is young, and is still learning to play second, but has demonstrated that he is up to the challenge. By the way, he's probably one of the best offensive second base prospects we have had since Chuck Knoblauch. As with Sano, the reports of Rosario's difficulty learning the position have subsided this season.

Brian Dozier: 2013 is a little better than 2012. His glove is better, anyway. Will he get it together? Time will tell. In any event, if he does, he'll be an affordable option in 2016.

Levi Michael: I have yet to see Michael play, so I'm hesitant to judge. I'd love to see him have a breakout second half of 2013 and turn some heads.

James Beresford: He was just promoted to AAA today. Congratulations, James! He's not a first-tier prospect, but he has an excellent glove. Can he continue to hit .300? We'll see. Beresford, however, could be a great utility infielder, as shortstop is his natural position. If he was called up to the Twins today, the bat would be an issue, but I'd put his glove right up there with anyone in this organization.

Pitching: In short, pick 5 starters from this list:

Alex Meyer
Trevor May
J.R. Berrios
Alex Wimmers
Kohl Stweart
Kyle Gibson
Logan Darnell
D.J. Baxendale
Sam Deduno
Scott Diamond
Ryan Eades

Now, add a bullpen out of guys that didn't quite make it.

This list of players, of course, is conjecture. Archives of this post will live on in 2016, and some parts will undoubtedly be laughable. Others, however, I'm willing to bet will be very accurate.

Here's the best part about this list: Every position player on it is home-grown. Every player on it will be under team control in 2016. In fact, with the exception of Joe Mauer's $23 million, there are few players on this list that would command more than a couple million dollars per season. In short, there's ample room to spend on free agents in an area of weakness. Otherwise stated, there's TONS of money on the table if the Twins want to add an extra power bat as a DH, a top-of-the-line shortstop, or an "ace pitcher" to lead our young rotation.

The other reason that I listed 2016 as the year to win the AL Central is because of the learning curve of major league baseball. If we can learn anything from watching Aaron Hicks this season, it's that there is a gigantic difference from the minors to the majors. Sano, Rosario, and even Meyer might all have tough rookie seasons. Picking 2016 gives these young guys a chance to make it through the league a couple times, learn from mistakes, and learn to succeed.

So you've heard it here first: Don't count on the Twins the next couple seasons, but by 2016 this is going to be a dominating team.

Rock Cats: A Tough Week-Plus

If you're familiar with this blog, you know that this image
signifies that the Rock Cats are in the midst
of a losing streak

Just like their parent club, the New Britain Rock Cats have hit a tough spell. In fact, their last victory was May 11 vs. Portland, and since that 5-4 win, the Cats have lost 8 consecutive games. In those 8 games, the Rock Cats have combined to score a grand total of 18 runs, while allowing 52. It's not tough to see the problems: they aren't scoring enough, and are allowing too many runs (how's that for analysis?).

But let's dig a little deeper. There are other things -- some good -- at play. First, infielder James Beresford, who had been on the disabled list with a pulled groin, just returned to action this past weekend. Beresford had been off to a hot start before missing 2 weeks. In his first 4 games back, he has 6 hits (in 17 at-bats), and is batting .340 on the season. I frequently write about Beresford, and it's for a reason: although he isn't a top Twins prospect, he has a very good glove, and has demonstrated this season that his bat has caught up to AA pitching. If the hot bat continues, I'd be surprised if Beresford isn't promoted by July. So keep checking his stats!

Second, New Britain had been playing without a dedicated third baseman for a couple weeks, after Minnesota's own Nate Hanson was promoted to Rochester. Luckily, Deibinson Romero's visa issues were resolved, and he joined the team earlier this week. He's off to a good start, hitting .370 with 2 doubles and 2 home run in the first 7 games. In fact, he had 3 hits in each of his last 2 games. Romero, not a fantastic defender, was dependable on offense last year, so in the long run, his presence in the middle of the Cats' lineup will create more punch. Don't forget, last season, Romero hit 19 home runs and 23 doubles for New Britain, so he's no slouch with the bat.

Now, let's discuss our top stating pitching prospects: Meyer and May, hopefully our next "M & M Boys." They haven't been as successful the proverbial second time around the league. In his starts this month, Meyer hasn't lasted longer than 5 and 1/3 innings, but has 17 Ks to go along with 7 BBs. The problem, though, is that he's been allowing more than 1 hit an inning, and has given up 9 earned runs in these last 3 starts (a cumulative 15 innings). So yes, he's still missing bats -- 51 Ks and 18 BBs in 43 innings -- but he hasn't been going as deep into games. If these last 3 games are like the game I attended last month, it's because Meyer is struggling to either finish off hitters with a strikeout (instead, he would allow them to come back in a count), or locate his fastball. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Meyer has a 3.56 ERA. He's 23. He's tied for 3rd in the Eastern League in strikeouts. Yes, areas for improvement have been identified, but isn't that what the point of the minor leagues is? Instruction. Opportunity for improvement.

Finally, Trevor May. This month, May had 2 very good starts, and 1 clunker. His first 2 starts both lasted 7 innings, and he only gave up 1 earned run, striking out a combined 13 and walking 3. His most recent start was tough: only 4 innings, 5 earned runs, 3 Ks and 2 BBs. After allowing only 5 total hits in those first 2 starts, May surrendered 9 in the most recent. Let's talk about progress, though: May has not allowed a home run in his last 5 starts, after allowing 1 home run in each of his first 3 starts. His current strikeout-to-walk ratio is 40-21.But in those last 3 starts, the ratio is 16-5 -- better than 3-to-1. Both Meyer and May still have some distance to go before they are ready for Target Field. Meyer needs to better locate his fastball, and May still has to work on control so that he can work deeper into games on a more consistent basis.

One final note: after a very slow start, shortstop Danny Santana is hitting .280/.297/.354, including .366/.395/.415 over his last 10 games. Again, with this team, this year, I'm looking for individual progress and development.

Check back in a couple days. I'm attending Wednesday's Rock Cats game. Alex Meyer is scheduled to throw. But if Tuesday's game is cancelled, there's a chance that Trevor May will be on the hill. Either way, there will be something to write about, and I'll be tweeting from the press box.