I'm Glad the Twins Aren't Paying for an Ace Right Now, and a Rock Cats Report

With no Scott Baker in the fold, and with an
ineffective Francisco Liriano, the future of the Twins'
rotation is dubious, at best

You all know the story by now: Last night was not a good night to be a Twins fan. A completely ineffective Francisco Liriano ruined what could have been some nice momentum in a tough, 4 game series against the Yankees, and we received news that Tommy John surgery was performed on Scott Baker, instead of a simpler procedure to "clean up" his right elbow. Liriano's awful performance (after a stellar spring), and Baker's 12 month (minimum) recovery period have likely caused a sea change in the way that the front office is viewing the starting rotation, for 2012 and beyond.

In my head, I had always penciled in one of Baker or Liriano as possibilities for 2013, thinking that it would be possible -- maybe even smart -- for the Twins to try to extend one of these veteran starters. Now, Baker's 2013 option will certainly be declined, as he is shelved for at least a year, and who knows what to do with Liriano? Sure, he could come back in his next start and fire a no-hitter, but that doesn't seem at all possible right now. Handed a 3-1 lead in Yankee Stadium, against CC Sabathia no less, Liriano couldn't even get out of the third inning. He threw more balls than strikes (I acknowledge, though, that the strike zone last night was bad), and Yankees hitters took advantage of pitches left out over the plate. This is not the kind of guy you build your rotation around. This is the kind of guy that winds up in the bullpen, which is where I expect Liriano will be by June if he doesn't straighten out. Worst of all, for a team that right now doesn't appear to be contending for anything other than the worst record in baseball, he's not even accumulating value for the Twins to trade him.

All of this brings me to my main point this morning. I, along with most of Twins Territory, wished during the past few off-seasons that the Twins would acquire an upper echelon pitcher. It hasn't happened, of course. Carl Pavano and Jason Marquis hardly qualify. But think -- just for a second -- if they had. What if, for example, we had gotten a guly like Cliff Lee, or Roy Halladay, or even Zack Greinke? What a colossal waste of money it would be for 2012, and probably 2013. We would be paying basically $1 million per win for this pitcher. In other words, $20 million for 20 or so wins. Yes, it'd be great to have a 20 game winner on staff, but not if that pitcher is literally your only consistent weapon. This team -- without Baker and with an ineffective Liriano -- still wouldn't be much better. Certainly it would win 10 or so more games over the course of the season, but probably not nearly enough to win the division. For right now, at least, it would seem like misallocated money. It's great to have a dominant pitcher -- the kind of guy that you know stands a very good chance of winning every 5th day and throwing 7, 8 or 9 innings -- but it's not so great if there are no #2 or #3 starters to round out the stable. I had always envisioned this ace alongside a couple other good, younger pitchers, leading the staff and perhaps even helping the others become better pitchers. For right now, anyway, it would seem like a waste of money.

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Amid all the bad news about the Twins, there is good news out of Twins Territory to report: The New Britain Rock Cats won their 6th straight game last night. Chris Colabello was the big star last night. He hit 2 home runs and had 3 RBIs to lead the way to a 6-3 victory over the Portland Sea Dogs. Colabello, 28, is one of those great baseball stories. He spent 2005-2011 playing in the Canadian-American League, which is an independent baseball league. He spent all but one of those seasons with the Worcester (Massachusetts) Tornadoes, and 2012 is his first year playing in the minor leagues. At 28, he's too old to be a top prospect, but you really, really have to respect the guy for going out there and trying to make a career as a professional ballplayer. I hope he does more than "provide minor league depth," or whatever scouts or front office people might tell you. Deibinson Romero, Pedro Florimon, Nathan Hanson, Evan Bigley, Chris Herrmann and Estarlin De Los Santos also picked up hits for New Britain. David Bromberg and Bobby Lanigan each pitched 3 innings for the Rock Cats, with Lanigan picking up the win after allowing no runs. Delois Guerra got the hold, pitching very well in the 7th and 8th innings, allowing no hits and striking out 2. Lester Oliveros pitched the 9th and, although he got into some trouble, allowing 2 earned runs on 2 hits and a walk, was able to make it through the inning. The Rock Cats are now 10-3, and play this afternoon to wrap up what has been a very successful road trip.

Minnesota Momentum and ESPN SportsCenter Coverage

Is tonight the night where Francisco Liriano puts it together?

CC Sabathia is down. In two starts this season, he has 0 decisions. In 12 innings pitched, he's given up 16 hits, 9 earned runs, 2 home runs and 5 walks, while striking out 15. His ERA in this brief stretch is 6.75. Clearly, he's looking to rebound against the Twins tonight, and for good reason: in his last 9 starts against Minnesota (including the postseason), Sabathia is 8-0 with a 1.72 ERA. So, although the Twins have the momentum going into tonight -- thanks to great games by Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Alexi Casilla, and a solid outing by Carl Pavano -- Sabathia has the momentum in the historical sense. Tonight's game, featuring lefties Sabathia and Francisco Liriano, could be very good, or it could be rough: both are capable of shutting down offenses, but both have been very hittable thus far.

As I wrote last year, I think it is possible for this team to have success off of Sabathia. I still would love to see a couple bunts (for base hits) in the first few innings tonight. Between Sabathia's bulk, and the fact that neither Alex Rodriguez nor Mark Teixeira is fleet of foot, bunting would be a great way to upset Sabathia early on. Anything that gets him off of his routine is a positive, in my book. Second, Liriano needs to bust a few Yankee hitters inside. Last night, Pavano pitched well, but you could see the Yankees waiting for those pitches that were on the outer half of the plate, without any fear that Pavano would instead go inside and upstairs to "give them a different view of the ball," so to speak. Liriano, with better velocity than Pavano, can do just that. It could be a great game tonight, like a 2-1 or 3-2 contest, if Liriano and Sabathia are both "on." Judging from past performances this season, though, my guess is that one or both are going to struggle. Hopefully it's Sabathia.

Finally, I want to formally thank ESPN's SportsCenter for their wonderful coverage of last night's Twins-Yankees game. This game featured, among other things, a gigantic Justin Morneau home run to the deepest part of Yankee Stadium, 3 hits from Joe Mauer, including hard-hit doubles down both lines, and a solid RBI single in the first inning by Josh Willingham to give the Twins an early lead. Of all those plays, SportsCenter's coverage after the game showed one of the Mauer doubles (and Alexi Casilla's nice play up the middle). They spent most of the time -- like 80% -- focusing on Derek Jeter's leadoff 351 ft. home run, Curtis Granderson's shot immediately thereafter, and -- get this -- a Jeter infield single. An infield single. A meaningless infield single in a game the Yankees lost by a considerable margin.

I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but seriously: we have Morneau trying to come back, against some pretty significant odds, to resurrect what was once a great career, and they don't even show his home run. We have Willingham, who has hit in every single game this season, and they don't show the line drive that he ripped to open up the scoring for the Twins. And there were a handful of other plays during the game that constituted Twins highlights in my opinion, but were, of course, left on the cutting room floor. I'm very, very glad I got to see Jeter leg out that single to shortstop. Thanks, as always, ESPN, for the fair and balanced coverage. And I really, really look forward to watching the Red Sox-Rangers on ESPN's Wednesday night baseball, and the Yankees-Red Sox on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.

I Can Fix the Pitching Rotation . . . for 2014

This season, the Twins are shelling out $28.25 million on their intended starting pitching staff. Here's the breakdown:

Twins fans are wondering when, and if, Kyle Gibson
will become part of the Twins' rotation

Scott Baker (will not pitch an inning this season): $6.5 million

Nick Blackburn: $4.75 million

Francisco Liriano: $5.5 million

Carl Pavano: $8.5 million

Jason Marquis: $3 million

As you can see, it adds up pretty fast, and no one player is making close to league minimum. Also, a few of these contracts aren't particularly good. Pavano is overpaid for what he produces (aside from the fact that he will probably pitch 200 innings this season), and I believe that the Twins could have done better for $3 million than Marquis, or could, at this point, just give the spot to a young guy.

It's no surprise that there will be massive turnover in this rotation over the next couple seasons. In fact, none of these guys is under contract for 2014. It seems as if Baker's time in Minnesota is likely over, unless he wants to come back to the Twins at a lower amount than the $9.5 million 2013 team option that will most certainly be declined. I guess that's a possibility. For right now, though, let's just assume, for what I'm about to propose, that Baker is out of the scenario. Additionally, the Twins hold an $8 million option on Nick Blackburn for 2014. For right now, I'll assume that they decline that option. Unless Blackburn can extended his perennial April and May success into the hot summer months, it's a lot of money to spend on a pitcher that can't consistently deliver quality starts.

The entire landscape of the Twins -- or at least many aspects of it -- could be very different in 2014. Justin Morneau might not be with the team, although I hope that's not the case. Denard Span could be traded as early as this season, especially if he remains healthy and it appears that Joe Benson is ready to take over in center field as part of a rebuild. Danny Valencia's job could have been usurped by Miguel Sano. And it's almost a foregone conclusion that Brian Dozier will be playing shortstop for the foreseeable future. In all, that sounds to me like the potential for a lot of contracts in 2014 that are close to league minimum, which is good news for the budget conscious Twins.

In my mind, some of that extra money saved in position player salaries would be well spend on pitching. Here's what I propose to get this team's pitching back on track for 2014. And I can do it for roughly the same amount:

1) Major Free Agent Signing. I'm targeting Zack Greinke, specifically. I wrote last week for Through the Fence Baseball on why we should try to get him. The common refrain is that the Twins need a pitcher that can miss bats, and Greinke might be our most attainable shot. Is he an ace? Perhaps. Perhaps not. It depends on your definition. But if he signed in Minnesota, he would instantly become our best starting pitcher since Johan Santana. With pitching payroll coming off the books, and with Greinke becoming a free agent after this season, I say the Twins go after him. $18 million/season.

2) Kyle Gibson. Admittedly there is no longer certainty as to whether we will ever see the pitcher that he once was on the path to becoming. He's out until late this summer recovering from Tommy John surgery. But he was so close beforehand. Aaron Gleeman still has Gibson as the #7 Twins prospect, incidentally. Perhaps he will not become the #2 starter that we dreamed about, but there is still a good chance that Gibson will be a solid starter for years to come in Minnesota. And, importantly, he'll be making close to league minimum. $500,000 (I'm ballparking a little here. Depending on when any of these rookies come up, they will get raises, so it could be a little more than that.).

3) Alex Wimmers. He's on the fast track. Yes, he's not nearly as close to The Show as Gibson is, but by promoting him to AA this season after only 40 innings in Ft. Myers, the Twins have indicated in no uncertain terms that Wimmers, if productive, will quickly climb the ladder. If he's successful this season, there's a chance that he could crack the Twins rotation at some point in 2013. $500,000.

4) Liam Hendriks. It sounds like Hendriks will get a lot of experience in 2012 now that Baker is shelved. He's making $480,000 this season. Let's assume that he's successful and put him, for the sake of argument, at $1.5 million in 2014.

These four pitchers put us at roughly $20.5 million. Let's round up just for budgeting purposes, and call it $22 million. We have some money left over for the 5th pitcher, so let's use it!

5) Solid veteran free agent signing, or Francisco Liriano. Don't laugh. I still hold out hope that Liriano can get his head under control. Don't get me wrong -- these first two starts were pretty awful -- but he looked so good just two weeks ago. Can the Twins get him for $8 million a season in a deal before he hits free agency? Do they even want to? Would they be crazy to? Or, are they looking for him to throw well so they can trade him? Yes, the signs point to Liriano not being with the Twins next season, but it's an option.

If the Twins don't go that route, that leaves them about $8 million to sign a pitcher. That money should get you a solid, middle of the rotation guy.

So, for around $30 million, we're set for 2014, in my mind, anyway. These young pitchers salaries' will escalate, so it will not be a $30 million rotation for the long-term (although they would be under team control for a few more years, so the raises would be reasonable). And don't forget that the Twins hopefully will draft a pitcher with the second overall selection in the 2012 amateur draft. Maybe this guy will be MLB ready by 2015? And, I'm sure I have forgotten about another prospect or two, such as Adrian Salcedo, that could crack the rotation in another few years.

I recognize that writing a list like this is speculative in nature. There's a chance that neither Wimmers nor Gibson ever throws a pitch at Target Field. But there's also a good chance that they realize their potential. For all the rotten luck the Twins have had (Baker's injury, Liriano's Tommy John surgery and subsequent inconsistent performance, and Blackburn not living up to his contract), it's about time that a few things go in the Twins favor.

So there you have it. 2012 doesn't look like Minnesota's season to win it all, and there are still some contracts on the book in 2013 (Jamey Carroll, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, even Morneau because his future is so tentative) that may prevent the Twins from making a big move, but they should definitely court Greinke and try to build a young rotation around him.

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Finally, if you have time, check out my post today at Through the Fence Baseball, romanticizing, #34, Kirby Puckett.

Silver Lining on the Scott Baker News

Will this man-child ever throw for the Twins again?

There's no good news report today, as it was just announced that our best righty, Scott Baker, will miss the entire season as a result of elbow surgery. This is bad news, make no mistake. When he's on, Baker is the second best pitcher in the rotation. Before injuries sidelined him in 2011, he was having arguably an all-star season, and he's one of just a few Twins pitchers that can consistently get hitters to swing and miss. Also, he seems like a nice guy. I met him last year, and he was nothing but polite. But tonight, in a rare Twins Fan From Afar evening post, I'm going to present the silver lining on the Baker news. Here it goes:

1. The Twins won't have a tough decision to make on his 2013 option. It's for $9.5 million, and I'd be really, really surprised if they picked it up. Sure, this isn't Tommy John surgery, but with Baker's lengthy injury history, it would be a significant risk to take, for a traditionally risk-averse organization. Roughly speaking, $9.5 million is 10 percent of this team's payroll. It's the equivalent of a starting position player, or approximately half the salary of an "ace," however you define that term. In other words, there are things the Twins can do with that payroll space.

2. I'm not going to give you some line like "this gives another guy an opportunity to step up and show he belongs." If "he" belonged, he'd already be up here, because our pitching depth is not at all, well, deep. What will happen, though, is that the Twins will lose more games this season. Sure, that's no fun in 2012, but this team wasn't going to make the playoffs, anyway. If you are a sub-.500 team, the more games you lose, the better your draft position. This injury, unfortunate as it may be, probably bumped the Twins up a few slots in the 2013 draft. If moving up a few slots is the difference between drafting the next Justin Verlander -- or even the next Scott Baker -- and missing that selection, it's not insignificant.

3. This makes it more likely that Francisco Liriano stays. Not sure if that is good or bad, but it would be nice to have a veteran starter not named Carl Pavano or Jason Marquis next season. To me, it had seemed, until today, like the Twins would either attempt to keep one of Liriano or Baker, or neither -- but not both. Now, they either will attempt to sign Liriano, or let him walk. Either way, they won't have to think about paying their two most senior pitchers around $10 million each.

4. If Baker does come back to Minnesota, it will be for cheaper. Let's assume Baker does want to stay loyal to Minnesota. He can come back on a 1-year deal and try to re-establish value, and then hit free agency in 2014. What better place to build good pitching stats than Target Field? If not, perhaps Kyle Gibson will be ready to take a spot in 2013?

In closing, I'm in no way suggesting that today was a good day in Twins Territory. We lost a good guy -- definitely our first or second best Twins pitcher. That's bad news, and I hope Baker recovers quickly. But if you view this news in the larger context of the 2014-2018 Twins -- who could be very good -- perhaps there is a sliver of good news hidden in there.

Positive Early Reports and Friday Links

Whether the 2012 Twins can even be a .500 team largely rests on the ample shoulders of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Let yourself think -- just for a second -- about how fun things could be if our 3-4 hitters were healthy and productive all season long. Thus far -- yes, I know players just showed up a week or so ago -- the early reports are positive. Justin Morneau took Francisco Liriano deep in batting practice, and hasn't had to sit out of any practice or drills. Joe Mauer has caught several bullpen sessions, participated in everything, and looks and sounds completely different than he did last year at this time. Denard Span collided with the center field wall yesterday, but feels OK thus far. For most Twins fans, these few snippets have to be at least a little encouraging. Not to imply that everything else is just details, but at the very least, there's room for optimism this March.

Now, onto Friday's links.

Jim Crikket over at Knuckleballs had an insightful post on Ryan Braun's issues, and Crikket's conclusion is that a movie must be made about this ordeal. It's hard to disagree. I heard that the role of Braun's urine sample will be played by Pauley Shore.

NoDak Twins fan noted that the Twins' early schedule is quite intimidating, featuring several AL East and AL West opponents. I'm glad that I'll see them against the Orioles.

Minnesota Twins Musings notes the great payroll debate in New York right now, as GM Brian Cashman has pledged to lower payroll in the next couple years.

On the Road with Shawn implores Joel Zumaya not to retire, for fear that Zumaya will end up like the rest of us!

The Tenth Inning Stretch had a great recap of yesterday's Twins B Game. The "Twins" (Rochester Redwings, mostly) beat the "Red Sox," (Pawtucket Red Sox, mostly) and new Twin Aaron Bates hit a home run.

Michael Cuddyer is up to his old tricks -- literally.

Finally, Jim Souhan at the Star Tribune continues to remind me of Walter Matthau in Grumpy Old Men. Jim, your company lets you go to Florida and write about baseball. If you don't want that assignment, I can think of about 100 Twins bloggers who would love it.

Twins 2013 Pitching Rotation: Spots up for Grabs

I wrote a post last week that advocated signing Francisco Liriano to some sort of extension now -- buying low, essentially. Most of the comments that I received expressed agreement with the general idea of buying low on Liriano, if you could ($6-8 million a year, 2-3 years, and an incentive-laden deal was probably the general consensus), but also expressed the probability that Liriano and his agent would likely prefer to bank on Liriano having a better 2012 and testing out free agent market. That post, and the comments, got me thinking about the Twins' rotation for the 2013 season. Not that I'm at all comfortable with what we have going into 2012, but it's basically settled at this point that it's going to be Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Blackburn and Marquis. You can complain about it all you want, and I'll enjoy reading the complaints and agreeing with you, but it seems very unlikely that Terry Ryan will go after another free agent starter.

If that group is really the 2012 starting rotation, the 2013 rotation could be, and probably will be, quite different. Liriano, unless extended, will become a free agent after this upcoming season. If he pitches well (say, wins 15 games and has an ERA under 4.00), there will be some team, somewhere, that is willing to overpay for a wild, inconsistent lefty that occasionally is the best pitcher in the game and has thrown a no-hitter. My guess is that, if Liriano is successful in 2012, it will be his last season in Minnesota.

The Twins hold a $9.25 million club option for righty Scott Baker for the 2013 season. Baker is another confusing case. On the one hand, he seems very close to a #2 starter, and on the other hand, he has a propensity for giving up home runs and a history of injuries that have put him on the disabled list several times. If the Twins are lucky enough to get a full season of a healthy, productive Baker, I expect that they'll probably pick up that option, especially if they believe they are unlikely to hold on to Liriano long-term. But still, it's worth noting that Baker could become a free agent after the 2012 season if the Twins fail to pick up his option, so his future as a Twin is uncertain.

There is probably more certainty with the next few guys on this list, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano and Jason Marquis. I'll get Blackburn out of the way first, because the fact is that his contract, which runs through 2013 (with an $8 million club option for 2014), is not movable. Due to relatively serious injuries, and long periods of ineffective pitching, the Twins are stuck with Blackburn for the next couple seasons. The Twins are paying Carl Pavano $8.5 million in 2012, in the last year of a 2-year contract. On opening day 2013, Pavano would be 37. It's certainly possible that the Twins would try to keep Pavano for another year if he has a decent 2012 (I imagine the Twins' press release for that contract would contain the words "innings-eater," "veteran," and "leader" on several occasions), but it's also very possible to imagine his skill-set further deteriorating this upcoming season. And then there's Jason Marquis. I have every expectation that the 1-year, $3 million contract that he signed is viewed by the front office as a stop-gap between what the Twins have now, and what they hope to have in 2013 or 2014.

In the end, my guess is that by 2013, only 2 of the current 5 starters will be wearing Twins uniforms. I can imagine the Twins trying to keep one of either Baker or Liriano (by exercising Baker's option or extending Liriano), but not both. And we know that Nick Blackburn will be doing his thing for another couple years. Aside from that, Marquis and Pavano are aging veterans, and the Twins might be able to replace their production with younger, cheaper players.

We know that top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson is out for the 2012 season following Tommy John surgery, so who knows how fast or slow his recovery will be. I'm hopeful that he will rebound quickly. But it should be noted that there was no definite indication that he was ready for promotion to the big leagues. I'm not certain what role arm problems played in his 2011 stats, but it's worth noting that he was 3-8 with a 4.81 ERA in Rochester in 18 starts. Not exactly light-out. Liam Hendriks was a September call-up to an injury-depleted Twins team, and went 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in 23 1/3 innings. It was encouraging that he struck out 16 while walking only 6. His promotion showed that he's definitely a top Twins prospect, and with another year of seasoning, it's easy to imagine him taking over a rotation spot in 2013. Still, though, I'm sure more time at AAA would benefit Hendriks and the Twins in the long-run. And then there are your Brian Duensings and Anthony Swarzaks. Will they make it as MLB starters, or be confined to lesser roles? My guess is that there will be at least one more opportunity for each.

In short, between aging veterans and players poised for free agency in the near future, your 2013 Twins pitching staff could only vaguely resemble its 2012 counterpart. I still hold out hope that, someday, the Twins might engage in a bidding war for an established pitcher that could become a #1 starter, but until that day comes, it's probably more prudent to take a look at the contracts, the options, and who we have in New Britain and Rochester waiting in the wings.

Ideal Mix for Mauer

Not surprisingly, our athletic, superstar catcher -- yes, the same guy that could have played D1 football in Florida, was pretty darn good at basketball, and apparently is a respectable golfer and bowler, as well -- didn't embarrass himself at first base last night in Chicago. He committed no errors, made a couple nice plays in the field, and also was 3-for-5 with 2 RBIs. All in all, a good night. Now that Mauer ha cleared this first hurdle, it raises the larger and more imminent question: Where exactly do we go from here?

Justin Morneau is out at least until the beginning of August, and perhaps longer. That leaves at least a few weeks worth of games where Morneau will be unavailable to play first. Mauer, for his part, apparently views the move as both temporary and rare, saying "Like I said, the manager asked me to go over there and play, and I did tonight, and I had fun doing it. But I'm a catcher, and I think sometimes we lose track of that. That's what I'm here to do." Forgive us, Joe, if we have "lost track" of that; maybe it's because you didn't play a game at catcher for 2 of the first 3 months of the season?

If Joe Mauer is sincere about doing whatever it takes to help his team win and get back in the AL Central race (and I would like to think he is), here is what I think should happen until Morneau makes it back: Of the 5 starting pitchers, Mauer should catch for 3. This seems to be about all he can handle right now, anyway, and this will hopefully keep his legs fresh enough so that he is productive in the event the Twins are playing meaningful games in September. Ideally, on one of the other two days, he can play first base, and on the other of the two days, he can DH or sit, as the case may be. So that adds up to: 60 percent catcher; 20 percent first base; and hopefully a split of approximately 10 percent DHing and 10 percent sitting. This mix, which will of course be unnecessary when Morneau returns, also will allow Cuddyer to play more right field, a position at which he is much more comfortable, and where his good arm is of more use.

As far as which particular pitchers Mauer catches, I could care less. I really don't think that Carl Pavano deserves a personal catcher, but the way things have gone thus far, Pavano can have his way and have Butera catch his starts; perhaps Liriano can have Butera or Rivera, as well. Butera and Rivera are absolutely pathetic with a bat, so this is far from an ideal situation, but if Joe begins swinging well, I want his bat in the lineup as often as possible.

Further, easing Mauer into the idea of playing another position now, in 2011, is going to make the inevitable conversation that takes place in 2012 or 2013 that much easier for the front office and Gardy. The Twins are establishing a precedent now that Joe Mauer is not exclusively a catcher, and that he is a versatile athlete who will play wherever his manager directs him to play.

I have long since given up on the notion that Joe Mauer will be worth $23 million annually for his play on the field. Few of these contracts are ever really worth it to the team. I still think signing him was the right thing to do, though. Now, the focus should be on maximizing Mauer's value. He (hopefully) has several years left as an elite hitter, but now we know that his years as a youthful, vibrant catching phenom are past. The best value from the Twins' standpoint is to take advantage of the fact that Mauer, when healthy, can bat close to .350. They can find a place, or places, on the field for him in the future. To destroy part of his value now by acquiescing to his statements that he is "here to catch" will be a disservice both to Mauer and to the organization.

What's the Best Pitch in Baseball?

What's the best pitch in baseball? According to my American Legion coach, the answer is Strike 1. That's right, the best pitch in baseball is not Jim Hoey's 97 MPH fastball painting the black on the lower outside corner; it's not Bert Blyleven's curveball that buckled and humiliated right-handed batters for decades, and it's not Frankie V's change-up that helped propel the 1987 Twins to the World Series. Getting ahead in the count consistently is a better advantage than any one type of pitch in a hurler's arsenal.

Now, let's be clear: I am not suggesting that Twins pitchers should throw a first-pitch strike to every hitter, every game. We saw last night that Liriano got in trouble at the end of his outing, giving up 2 first-pitch home runs. He was tiring, he could not locate his pitches as well, and the Orioles made him pay. Major league batters and coaches are adept at catching onto trends and patterns, and it wouldn't take all game for them to realize that our pitcher has just thrown a belt-high, first pitch fastball to 25 batters in a row. I am, however, suggesting that the Twins do preach the right mentality in teaching and demanding control--specifically first-pitch strikes, from their throwers. And haven't we seen it from the other side, as well: How many Twins fans and bloggers have commented at the fat first pitches that Joe Mauer almost always takes for strikes, thus beginning many at-bats in the hole?

In 2010, Fransisco Liriano threw a first pitch strike to 61.7 % of batters faced. That is the highest such percentage of his career. The second highest figure for Liriano was in 2006, when he threw 60.5 % first pitch strikes. Unquestionably, those were Liriano's two best years in the big leagues, and certainly, he had many other things going for him, such as good velocity and that killer slider. But getting that first pitch strike on a consistent basis allowed Liriano to work ahead in the count, and allowed him leeway to work off the plate. This last statement is underscored by the fact that, in 2010, Liriano got opposing hitters to swing at 34.4 % of pitches outside of the strike zone. That figure, far and away, has been Liriano's career high. Regardless of whether the batter makes contact with those pitches swung at outside of the strike zone, common sense dictates that the batting average on those particular balls put in play is going to be relatively low.

So far, in 2011, Liriano has thrown first pitch strikes to just 49.5 % of opposing hitters, and hitters are swinging at 26 % of his pitches out of the strike zone. To be fair, these are small sample sizes, but for anyone that has watched Liriano pitch, he has been wild, has walked many batters (5 last night against one of the worst lineups in the American League), and has been working behind in the count so often that it often becomes uncomfortable watching him. Increasing his control on the first pitch (but not throwing meatballs) is the surest way for Liriano to regain his 2010 form. Starting 0-1 on two of every three batters achieves several things: it gives batters one less strike to wait for, thus decreasing their selectivity; it constitutes one less strike Liriano has to throw to get a K, which, as a power pitcher, he will hopefully do fairly often; it will lead to fewer walks; and it allows Liriano to expand the strike zone, thus inducing swings-and-misses on balls off the plate, and those weak choppers and pop-ups that we all love seeing.

Just for comparison, here are the 2010 first strike percentages of Roy Halladay (67.3%), and Felix Hernandez (61.1 %), the 2010 Cy Young award winners. When he is "on," as he was for a long stretch last year, I put Liriano's "stuff" right up there with these guys'. One step towards achieving ace status, then, is to start taking command of that strike zone on the first pitch. Get in the driver's seat, Frankie!

Nova/Pena/Chamberlain for Liriano: No Dice in 2011

Andrew Marchand over at ESPN is reporting that the Yankees offered pitcher Ivan Nova and infielder Ramiro Pena for Francisco Liriano. Marchand describes this offer as "underwhelming" at first glance, but indicates his belief that the Twins like these two guys, and notes that Liriano has yet to pitch back-to-back good seasons. He thinks that the deal as proposed is not going to happen, but that if Joba Chamberlain is added, it would be possible.

Let's assume that the Twins would (and probably did) reject the Nova/Pena deal. But what if Chamberlain was added to the package? As a fan, it would not change my opinion that, for 2011, the Twins should hang onto Liriano. Yes, he has a strange, problematic delivery and will always be one pitch away from another major injury, and yes, he has not been consistent from year to year. Neither of those facts militate in favor of this trade.

I'm concerned with what the Twins are going to do in 2011, and am less concerned with 2012 and beyond. This is because I am a fan. If I ran the Twins or even worked for them, my views would be equally geared toward 2011, and toward the future. 2011 will undoubtedly be the last year featuring this ensemble of players: Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome, Liriano and Young. One or more will be traded, leave in free agency, or retire after 2011. And 2011 represents a year when we are still expecting great things from Mauer and (a healthy) Morneau, and when Danny Valencia could come into his own and be extremely affordable. Regardless of whether you like these players, or believe that they are overpaid and undertalented, they all have had successful seasons for the Twins, and it is very valuable to have them all on the same team, at the same time. To disrupt what, on paper, is a wonderful roster, by trading our only left-handed power pitcher, does great violence to the Twins' ability to compete in 2011.

I'm not suggesting that Liriano doesn't have a price, but, heading into a very important 2011 season where the expectations are high, that price is not a right-handed pitcher, an infielder and a potential closer (aren't we paying 2 right now?) who showed up fat to spring training and whose arm may be ruined. I think the Liriano conversation is one best saved for next offseason.