A Couple Announcements

I love running this blog. I've been doing it now for just over a year, and it honestly has become one of my favorite pastimes. I've especially enjoyed getting to know (at least in the blogging sense) a bunch of other Twins bloggers and fans. This is a really good and fun community to "work" in, and the best thing is that writing about the Twins never really feels like work. Yes, things weren't nearly as fun last season when, for example, Rene Tosoni was leading the charge late in 2011, or we had to learn how to pronounce the word Dumatrait, but there was always stuff to write about, and there was always quality stuff to read. The blog has also served as a good distraction from the mundane aspects of work and life.

The first announcement is that, this past weekend, Twins Fan From Afar surpassed 20,000 page views. Yes, I'm sure that is a laughable number to most of you that operate your own Twins blogs, but let me tell you, it took me a while to get there! First, I am basically a Luddite: I am not the most computer literate person out there (in full disclosure, I just added an RSS feed to this blog, because apparently you are supposed to do that, but I don't know what the hell an RSS feed does), so it took me a while to figure out the relatively easy world of blogging. Second, no one read the blog for the first few months. In February, 2011, my first month of blogging, Twins Fan From Afar had 148 total views. Mom and Dad back in Minnesota, on their home and work computers, probably accounted for 100 of those views; and I was responsible for the other 48, because I had not yet figured out that, as a blog author, you could make your individual page views invisible. Third, it probably didn't help this blog's initial popularity that the Twins were generally just awful last season. Baseball fans were probably searching for information about the teams that mattered, and frankly, the Twins didn't matter. But, over the course of the season, I began to truly enjoy the ritual of writing about baseball, and more people began to read what I wrote. Yes, some posts were better than others, but, much like the ritual of going to the gym, or reading before bed, it's become a nice part of my life. Now that I have this blog -- and regardless of whether more or less people view it in the coming months and years -- it's tough to imagine not doing it.

My second announcement is that, starting later this week, I am going to begin providing content for Through the Fence Baseball, a national baseball website that provides information on all MLB teams. I'll be writing just a couple times a week for them on Twins related topics, and I'm looking forward to reaching a new audience. Nothing will change at Twins Fan From Afar. If you enjoy what you read here, or at least are nice enough to read what I write, please continue to do so. I'll be writing here just as often, but will just be writing some other stuff for TTFB.

So, thanks for 20,000 page views, and I look forward to a full blogging season in 2012. And, hopefully, the Twins can scrape together a considerably better season this year.

Andrew
Twins Fan From Afar

Which Danny Valencia will Show Up in 2012?

The Twins had some encouraging Spring Training results over the weekend. I realize that Spring Training games don't count for anything -- they are, in fact, for "training." That's why you see guys taking a lot of pitches, just trying to get their timing down, or you might see a pitcher throw a curveball five times in a row. These guys are trying to get ready for the season, not trying to set Grapefruit League records. But still, tangible results are always nice, and Danny Valencia had a good weekend. Valencia hit two home runs and a double in two games. In those two games combined, he was 3-for-6 with 4 runs batted in. And it wasn't just that he was hitting the ball; he was hitting it hard and far, judging from the replays. At the very least, it's nice to see him locked in this early in the season. I hope he keeps it up!





I bet you didn't
know that Valencia
attended the
U of Miami



In 2010, of course, Valencia impressed most of us, with a .311/.351/.448 slash line in 85 games after a mid-season call up. He was also third in rookie of the year voting. 2011 wasn't so great. In what could be described as a textbook sophomore slump, Valencia regressed to .246/.294/.383. Though he was healthy the entire season, which in and of itself was "highlight-worthy" for the 2011 Twins, Valencia did not impress. He defense was not reliable (he had the second most errors at third base), he did not consistently take good at-bats, and he came off as arrogant in the press.

Quite frankly, I don't care at all that Valencia went to the University of Miami, and I suspect that his teammates, manager and coaches don't either. I can absolutely see how, over the course of a 162 game season, Valencia rubbed some in the Twins' organization the wrong way. But still, it's fair to note that Valencia was at least healthy and on the field, even if he wasn't fantastic. Last year, Ron Gardenhire was quick to throw Valencia under the bus, when sometimes there were other parties that were equally, if not more, guilty of bad baseball transgressions. For whatever reason, Valencia was often in the doghouse. At that time, I suggested that Gardy lay off of Valencia (publicly, at least). Looking back, however, maybe Valencia needed to be taken down a couple pegs in the press, even if he didn't always deserve it. I seriously doubt that Valencia feels less full of himself now than he did last year, but perhaps his second full season will bring greater maturity. After all, he's not young -- 27 this season -- and he's been in the show for about 18 months now. And after the departure of several veterans in the past few months, he's starting to climb the Twins' seniority ladder.

For 2012, I don't know that we can expect Valencia to be a .300 hitter. After last season, .275 would look pretty good in comparison. And, to be honest, if Miguel Sano keeps maturing into the ballplayer that everyone expects him to become, Valencia's time at third base is probably limited to the next 2-3 seasons. Sure, Valencia developing into a complete ballplayer would be fantastic, and I would never suggest that having talented players on the field is bad, but Valencia was never a blue chip prospect to begin with: he never even hit .300 in AA or AAA. But I hope that Valenica shows a little more maturity this year, that he stays out of the doghouse (whether deserved or undeserved), and that the reported hard work he has been putting in this offseason pays dividends. It's funny -- for as much as people (especially bloggers, myself included) talk about Mauer, Morneau, Liriano and Span -- Valencia could be just as important a cog if he put together a great season. He'll likely never be a 40 home run per year guy, but he has shown flashes of greatness, as well as the ability to hit in the clutch. He certainly has talked the talk, maybe in 2012 he will walk the walk. I'd be content with a .275/.350/.445 season out of Valencia, accompanied by stable defense.

Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins & Friday Links

The Twins' offense hasn't really showed up this far in Spring Training, but yesterday, Francisco Liriano had a great 3-inning start against Tampa Bay, striking out five and, most importantly, walking none. Additionally, the three innings took only 34 pitches to get through. Sure, many in Tampa Bay's lineup weren't major league hitters, but it's still encouraging and hopefully is a sign of things to come.

The big Twins news yesterday, of course, was that the Twins and left reliever Glen Perkins agreed to a 3-year, $10.3 million extension, which keeps him in a Twins uniform through 2015, with a team option for 2016. This should prove to be a great signing, I think. First, if last year (and this year, so far) has taught us anything, it's that you simply cannot completely destruct a bullpen and easily rebuild it from scratch -- there has to be some continuity, some returning veterans. This contract ensures a veteran bullpen presence for the foreseeable future. Second, the value of the contract is reasonable, especially if Perkins pitches at the same level he did most of 2011. Third, although the contract reportedly contains escalators if Perkins finishes games (takes over as closer), his base salary for 2014 and 2015 is only $3.75 million. In other words, even if you tack on, say, an extra $1 million if Perkins ends up assuming the closer's role in another couple years, $4.75 million for a (hopefully) effective closer is a bargain for the Twins. And even if Perkins just continues to be the late-inning, high-leverage situation guy for the Twins, which is, for now, where I think he's most valuable to the Twins, it's still a great contract. Now I look for Perkins to take that next step and really become a bullpen and clubhouse leader. Congratulations, Glen.

It was a busy week for the Twins, and also for Twins bloggers. Here are a few links that I enjoyed reading this past week.

First, respected Twins' veteran blogger Aaron Gleeman lost 150 pounds this year. Amazing. Congratulations, Aaron.!

Capital Babs from Knuckleballs is at Spring Training right now, and on her honeymoon. She has some good pictures and posts from attending the Twins' B-game, which really featured a lot of the A-lineup.

NoDak Twins Fan analyzes the scenarios under which the Twins could either keep Francisco Liriano through all of 2012, or trade him before the deadline. Personally, it's a lot easier for me to imagine the scenarios where we trade Liriano, than it is to imagine the scenarios where we keep him, especially as he nears free agency. Time will tell.

John J. Parent at Call to the Pen wrote a great season preview for the Twins. Spoiler alert -- he's concerned with the health of Mauer and Morneau. This is a very well done piece.

The Common Man reviews MLB 12 the Show, which is about the only video game series that I enjoy playing. I think I might save the $60 and not buy it this year, though, as I bet the Twins are pretty awful in it.

Last but not least, Minnesota's own Lindsay Guentzel was selected for the starting 9 in MLB's 2012 Fancave. Some of the other winners include Yankees and Braves fans, so things could get ugly fast. In all seriousness, though, this is a big deal, and hopefully will help Lindsay in her journalism career. Congratulations, Lindsay!

Justin Morneau and the "Honeymoon Period"

All the reports have been great. He woke up early for the first day of training camp, lost a little weight, has participated in all drills, and stands ready, today, to play in back-to-back games. From the little that I have watched, he appears healthy (if a little thin) and alert, and his swing looks as good as it did at any point last year (maybe that's not saying a lot, but you have to take the positives where they come). In short, if you didn't know any better, Justin Morneau looks like any other baseball player getting ready for the 2012 season. But we do know better, and so does Justin.

At the beginning of many romantic relationships, there is the so-called "honeymoon period." You know -- that time when everything feels just great, you think that you've found the perfect partner, and believe that nothing will ever change. **Cue the Tony Bennett music and the sounds of birds chirping** Well, for most couples, even those that persevere, the honeymoon periods ends at some point. Some of those things that were once cute and funny about your partner eventually became annoying; you realize that they aren't, in fact, perfect; and sometimes they simply drive you nuts.

I'm worried that some Twins fans, myself included, are in the midst of a honeymoon period -- another honeymoon period -- with Justin Morneau. The pure Twins fan in me, the human side of me, wants more than anything to see him just have a healthy season, whether he bats .245 or .345. That same side of me craves Star Tribune, Pioneer Press, ESPN and AP articles that support that belief. I even look for pictures, like the picture below, to provide documentation for the proposition that Morneau is, in fact, healthy and in Florida.



Pioneer Press photographer Chris Polydoroff captures Justin
Morneau and, is that Joe Mauer catching a bullpen session?

 Even watching the Twins-Red Sox game a couple nights ago, I was looking for the positive in everything that Morneau did. In his first at-bat that ended with a routine ground out to second base, I focused instead on the hard foul he hit down the right field line ("he made solid contact there," I told my wife). Even on defense, when he threw a ball into a runner going to second base, I thought, "well, at least it was a good pick-up to make the play at first base." Clearly, I'm still in the honeymoon period. Who knows what I'm going to think if/when he actually does start to hit home runs and doubles, and if he reemerges as the great defensive first baseman that he had worked so hard to become.

The realist in me -- the part of me that is an analyst, and, well, an adult -- is worried about what happens when that honeymoon period ends. I know it's inevitable at some point. The head, the wrist, or the knees, are bound to act up. Or some other, not-yet-existing injury, could come to light. Even if Morneau is reasonably healthy, there eventually will be some sort of headline after a game or workout, reading, "Morneau to take Thursday off, citing wrist pain." What will we think then? Probably the worst -- and with good reason. There have been very few issues for Morneau in the last couple years that have not become serious, to the point of eventually requiring surgery or time on the disabled list.

But for right now, this fan is content living in the delusional honeymoon period. It's March, it's sunny in Florida, and Opening Day is now less than a month away.

Mauer's Off-the-Field Value to the Twins

I've written before, as have others, that Joe Mauer isn't only valuable to the Twins for his contributions as the star catcher and third batter in the lineup. Make no mistake, that's how he earns his paycheck, but it's also evident that, over the last few years, he has become his own brand. Even where I live, far removed from Twins Territory, I have noticed more Twins hats, and even the occasional Mauer jersey or t-shirt, than I did even five years ago. Sure, part of it is undoubtedly due to the presence of the New Britain Rock Cats, but part of it is simply because Joe Mauer is regarded as one of the best players in baseball and has helped popularize the Twins' brand (the team's success for most of the first decade of this century probably didn't hurt, either).

For the 2010 season, Joe Mauer jerseys ranked as the second highest selling jersey in all of baseball, trailing only Derek Jeter. Damn Yankees. Roy Halladay, Chase Utley and Cliff Lee rounded out the top five. Without putting too much thought into it, I had assumed the Twins derived some specific financial benefit from the sale of so many Mauer jerseys. In turn, I had always credited Mauer's popularity with respect to apparel sales and revenue as part of his off-the-field value.

I decided to look into this just a little bit more, and was a bit surprised at what I found. MLB's revenue sharing arrangement, part of which is comprised of a central revenue fund, gets its money from national TV and radio deals, the MLB network, and merchandise sales. Thereafter, the money in the central fund is distributed equally to the 30 teams. In 2009, for instance, each team received approximately $30 million from this arrangement (now, there also is another revenue pool that deals with local TV contracts, concessions and ticket sales -- and it is a large source of disagreement between small market and big market teams -- but that is another post for another day).

In other words, the fact that more Joe Mauer jerseys are sold than almost any other jersey does not specifically benefit the Twins more than it benefits any other baseball team. Interestingly, the fact that Mauer jerseys are so popular might not even provide extra cash in Mauer's own pocket. The Major League Baseball Player's Association states, regarding player licensing revenue, that "[p]layers receive a pro rata share of licensing revenue regardless or stature," and that the amount of the share is dependent on that player's actual days of MLB service in a given season. But don't worry, fans, Joe has Gatorade, Nike and Head & Shoulders royalty checks coming in, so I'm sure he's able to afford gas to fill his Chevy, and the weekly Cub Foods trip.

So, it might have been premature on my part to think that Joe Mauer jersey sales bring in a considerable amount of revenue for the Twins. That being said, a healthy Mauer does put people in seats, and those people purchase food and booze at Target Field, even if the team is not playing great.  That is money in the Twins' pocketbook. Finally, I also don't think it's completely incorrect to give Mauer at least a tiny portion of the credit for helping the Twins land Target Field: yes, the deal was years in the making, and yes, taxpayers prettymuch footed the bill, but it's a lot easier to sell a fan base on a new stadium when the team is winning -- as the Twins did several times in the years leading up to 2010 -- than when it is losing and being threatened with contraction. And there was no player more instrumental to many of those winning seasons than Mauer. The concept of "value" is tricky. Clearly, for franchise players like Mauer or Jeter, it extends beyond the foul lines.

If You Could Undo a Recent Twins Move, or Make a Move that the Twins Failed to Make, What Would It Be?

I try to be a (mostly) practical Twins fan. I knew the Twins would never go after Albert Pujols. Last year, I wrote that I thought that Jose Reyes would be a good fit at shortstop, but realistically knew that the pieces would never fall into place for him to come to Minnesota. And, now I'm optimistic about Brian Dozier. Sure, I guess it's fun to dream (and even write) about those big free agent signings every now and then, but that doesn't seem, for a Twins fan, to be a very productive use of time.

For 2012, the Twins seemed very locked into the $100 million payroll. I'm not by any means fine with that, and have serious concerns about the starting rotation and the bullpen. But I'm more or less at piece with it: the payroll, and the team, are what they are, and there's nothing I can write that would have made Terry Ryan make a push for, say, C.J. Wilson (though, I'm not sure that Wilson will be worth what he got from the Angels, anyway), or Mark Buehrle.

But because we're fans, and we don't have to live in the here and now in the same way that Terry Ryan, Rob Antony and Ron Gardenhire do, I want to pose a question: If you, as General Manager for a day, could UNDO any one move made by the Twins in the last few years, or MAKE a move that the Twins failed to make, what would it be? I'm thinking about player acquisitions, letting certain free agents depart, picking up or declining options, trades that shouldn't have been made -- that sort of thing. But be creative. And, extra points if you explain what you would have done instead. It's easy to criticize, but often is difficult to find alternative practical solutions.

Here's mine: The Twins should have traded Francisco Liriano last year at this time, perhaps to the Yankees. Andrew Marchand at ESPN reported that Brian Cashman's offer to the Twins was Ivan Nova and Ramiero Pena for Liriano, and he suggested that the Yankees may have thrown in Joba Chamberlain to make a deal. A year ago, I was against the trade, because I, along with most of Twins Territory, was viewing Liriano as our de facto ace going forward after his very solid 2010 campaign. Well, with the benefit of hindsight, it might have made sense to sell high on Liriano -- especially if the Twins don't have much of an interest in extending his time with the team past 2012. Now, it seems that, either Liriano will have a good year and very well may price himself out of the Twins' range, or he will have another year of a 5-something ERA, and the Twins will be able to replace that spot in the order with many cheaper, and perhaps in-house, options. And Liriano will become a free agent after 2012, so the Twins will gain nothing if they let him finish the year in Minnesota and have no interest in re-signing him,

I'd be happy to hear your ideas in the comments. Thanks for reading!

[Update: I posted this same piece at TwinsDaily, and the responses were great.]

Twins-Red Sox Reflections: Liriano's Strikes, Revere's Speed and Ray Chang's Head

In the end, Francisco Liriano's pitching line yesterday looked fine on paper. He gave up no runs, walked one, and struck out two, in two innings. Still, though, even though this was his first start of the spring, I was left wanting a little bit more. The frustrating aspect of Liriano's outing, for me, was that 12 of his 25 pitches were balls. In the first inning, Liriano fell behind all three hitters, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Cody Ross. Pedroia walked, but Liriano got Ellsbury to line into an unassisted double play at first, and struck out Ross on a nasty slider. The best aspect of the outing, though, was that Liriano settled down thereafter, and he averaged 12.5 pitches per inning. We all know that Liriano is much more effective if he doesn't get that pitch count up to 40+ after the first couple innings.

I don't want to make too much out of Liriano's performance: it was his first outing; it's Spring Training; and he did not give up any runs. And the slider looked very good. But as usual with Liriano, I'm left wanting a bit more. I want to see him attack the strike zone early in the count. I've harped on Liriano and first pitch strikes before, and it probably has become an obsession with me. So forgive my indulgence. But I really do think it's one of the few things separating Liriano from taking that next step in his career (and, generally, just having better control overall). Call me crazy, but I think that veteran hitters like Dustin Pedroia are going up to bat in the first game of Spring Training looking to see some pitches, have good at-bats, and get their timing down. So Francisco, go ahead and throw a 90 MPH fastball on the outer half just to get ahead in the count!

I thought Ben Revere looked good. I may be wrong, but in the three at-bats I saw him take, I don't recall him swinging at a first pitch. That's a good sign for a hitter that hopefully will someday become capable of taking on a leadoff role, and for a hitter that, last year, swung at a lot of first pitches, and needs to increase his on-base percentage. He was speedy on the basepaths, stealing second with ease in the first inning. Unfortunately, though, he was picked off of first base later in the game, thus negating, more or less, the stolen base. It's hard to complain, though, with a 2-4 day at the plate, a stolen base, and 2 RBIs.

Finally, there was a scary moment, when Ray Chang slid into second base and appeared to hit his head on the leg or knee of the shortstop. If you haven't seen the play, you don't have to watch it: it looked very much like Justin Morneau's July, 2010 slide that caused his infamous concussion. Here's hoping that Chang feels fine today when he wakes up. For what it's worth, Chang was having a good game, going 1-1 with 2 walks (both on full counts) and a stolen base, and looking good at second base. I don't know if he's our second baseman of the future, but I did like what I saw of him last season in New Britain.

Thanks to my east coast proximity, I will be enjoying at least part of tonight's Twins-Red Sox game on NESN, and will be back with a report tomorrow.

Positive Early Reports and Friday Links

Whether the 2012 Twins can even be a .500 team largely rests on the ample shoulders of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Let yourself think -- just for a second -- about how fun things could be if our 3-4 hitters were healthy and productive all season long. Thus far -- yes, I know players just showed up a week or so ago -- the early reports are positive. Justin Morneau took Francisco Liriano deep in batting practice, and hasn't had to sit out of any practice or drills. Joe Mauer has caught several bullpen sessions, participated in everything, and looks and sounds completely different than he did last year at this time. Denard Span collided with the center field wall yesterday, but feels OK thus far. For most Twins fans, these few snippets have to be at least a little encouraging. Not to imply that everything else is just details, but at the very least, there's room for optimism this March.

Now, onto Friday's links.

Jim Crikket over at Knuckleballs had an insightful post on Ryan Braun's issues, and Crikket's conclusion is that a movie must be made about this ordeal. It's hard to disagree. I heard that the role of Braun's urine sample will be played by Pauley Shore.

NoDak Twins fan noted that the Twins' early schedule is quite intimidating, featuring several AL East and AL West opponents. I'm glad that I'll see them against the Orioles.

Minnesota Twins Musings notes the great payroll debate in New York right now, as GM Brian Cashman has pledged to lower payroll in the next couple years.

On the Road with Shawn implores Joel Zumaya not to retire, for fear that Zumaya will end up like the rest of us!

The Tenth Inning Stretch had a great recap of yesterday's Twins B Game. The "Twins" (Rochester Redwings, mostly) beat the "Red Sox," (Pawtucket Red Sox, mostly) and new Twin Aaron Bates hit a home run.

Michael Cuddyer is up to his old tricks -- literally.

Finally, Jim Souhan at the Star Tribune continues to remind me of Walter Matthau in Grumpy Old Men. Jim, your company lets you go to Florida and write about baseball. If you don't want that assignment, I can think of about 100 Twins bloggers who would love it.

Joel Zumaya and the Twins: Fool me Once, Shame on You; Fool me Twice, Shame on Me?

The Twins are in a sort of interesting position when it comes to Joel Zumaya. Somewhat unsurprisingly, the firethrowing righty didn't make it past one of his first batting practice sessions last week, and now needs decide whether, at age 27, to retire and become a professional fisherman (apparently he is enough of a realist to understand that becoming a professional on Guitar Hero was not going to happen), or to opt for Tommy John surgery and attempt another comeback.

Technically, Zumaya is still in the Twins' fold. I still think it was a good move signing him, and the $400,000 is negligible in the grand scheme of things. We can debate whether the Twins should have had a back-up option with solid MLB experience, but that's for another day. Although Zumaya is a young, successful millionaire, like the rest of professional athletes, I do feel bad for the guy: he has had so many surgeries, and adding Tommy John to the list reportedly would be his 6th surgical procedure in as many years. You can understand why he might want to hang up the cleats in exchange for a nice Ranger boat and a pair of those oversized sunglasses.

But there might be more to the story. What if Zumaya has Tommy John surgery next week? According to one source, the average recovery time from surgery to full competition mode is 11.6 months. That sounds about right. That would put Zumaya out for the 2012 season, of course, but capable of pitching in 2013. Could Terry Ryan and company help convince Zumaya to have the surgery, keep him off the 40 man roster for the year, and offer a similar, low-risk high-reward contract for 2013?

I think it's at least worth considering. If there's one thing the Twins' training staff has recent experience in, it's helping pitchers rebound from Tommy John surgery (see Nathan, Joe; Liriano, Francisco; Neshek, Pat). Of course, such a proposition -- especially with Zumaya -- has a good chance of turning into an annual Charlie-Brown-getting-the-football-yanked-by-Lucy-as-he-goes-to-kick-it sort of thing, but even next year, this team would still have use for a guy that can throw 100 mph (note to Twins: explain to Zumaya that he will be expected to throw more than 13 pitches this time around).

In the end, it might make more sense from Zumaya's perspective to simply retire. I'm sure it is mentally exhausting for both he and his family to go through all these medical issues each and every year. But on the other hand, Zumaya still could be a great -- and dirt cheap -- pickup for the Twins. He's like an unscratched $1 lottery ticket with 1 in 100 odds. How many times do purchase a ticket, and not win, before you give up on the game?

What do you think? Assume for right now that Zumaya is undecided on retirement. Do you try to convince him to get the surgery and come back to the Twins next year for close to league minimum, or do you cut ties now and wish him good luck?