Positive Early Reports and Friday Links

Whether the 2012 Twins can even be a .500 team largely rests on the ample shoulders of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Let yourself think -- just for a second -- about how fun things could be if our 3-4 hitters were healthy and productive all season long. Thus far -- yes, I know players just showed up a week or so ago -- the early reports are positive. Justin Morneau took Francisco Liriano deep in batting practice, and hasn't had to sit out of any practice or drills. Joe Mauer has caught several bullpen sessions, participated in everything, and looks and sounds completely different than he did last year at this time. Denard Span collided with the center field wall yesterday, but feels OK thus far. For most Twins fans, these few snippets have to be at least a little encouraging. Not to imply that everything else is just details, but at the very least, there's room for optimism this March.

Now, onto Friday's links.

Jim Crikket over at Knuckleballs had an insightful post on Ryan Braun's issues, and Crikket's conclusion is that a movie must be made about this ordeal. It's hard to disagree. I heard that the role of Braun's urine sample will be played by Pauley Shore.

NoDak Twins fan noted that the Twins' early schedule is quite intimidating, featuring several AL East and AL West opponents. I'm glad that I'll see them against the Orioles.

Minnesota Twins Musings notes the great payroll debate in New York right now, as GM Brian Cashman has pledged to lower payroll in the next couple years.

On the Road with Shawn implores Joel Zumaya not to retire, for fear that Zumaya will end up like the rest of us!

The Tenth Inning Stretch had a great recap of yesterday's Twins B Game. The "Twins" (Rochester Redwings, mostly) beat the "Red Sox," (Pawtucket Red Sox, mostly) and new Twin Aaron Bates hit a home run.

Michael Cuddyer is up to his old tricks -- literally.

Finally, Jim Souhan at the Star Tribune continues to remind me of Walter Matthau in Grumpy Old Men. Jim, your company lets you go to Florida and write about baseball. If you don't want that assignment, I can think of about 100 Twins bloggers who would love it.

Joel Zumaya and the Twins: Fool me Once, Shame on You; Fool me Twice, Shame on Me?

The Twins are in a sort of interesting position when it comes to Joel Zumaya. Somewhat unsurprisingly, the firethrowing righty didn't make it past one of his first batting practice sessions last week, and now needs decide whether, at age 27, to retire and become a professional fisherman (apparently he is enough of a realist to understand that becoming a professional on Guitar Hero was not going to happen), or to opt for Tommy John surgery and attempt another comeback.

Technically, Zumaya is still in the Twins' fold. I still think it was a good move signing him, and the $400,000 is negligible in the grand scheme of things. We can debate whether the Twins should have had a back-up option with solid MLB experience, but that's for another day. Although Zumaya is a young, successful millionaire, like the rest of professional athletes, I do feel bad for the guy: he has had so many surgeries, and adding Tommy John to the list reportedly would be his 6th surgical procedure in as many years. You can understand why he might want to hang up the cleats in exchange for a nice Ranger boat and a pair of those oversized sunglasses.

But there might be more to the story. What if Zumaya has Tommy John surgery next week? According to one source, the average recovery time from surgery to full competition mode is 11.6 months. That sounds about right. That would put Zumaya out for the 2012 season, of course, but capable of pitching in 2013. Could Terry Ryan and company help convince Zumaya to have the surgery, keep him off the 40 man roster for the year, and offer a similar, low-risk high-reward contract for 2013?

I think it's at least worth considering. If there's one thing the Twins' training staff has recent experience in, it's helping pitchers rebound from Tommy John surgery (see Nathan, Joe; Liriano, Francisco; Neshek, Pat). Of course, such a proposition -- especially with Zumaya -- has a good chance of turning into an annual Charlie-Brown-getting-the-football-yanked-by-Lucy-as-he-goes-to-kick-it sort of thing, but even next year, this team would still have use for a guy that can throw 100 mph (note to Twins: explain to Zumaya that he will be expected to throw more than 13 pitches this time around).

In the end, it might make more sense from Zumaya's perspective to simply retire. I'm sure it is mentally exhausting for both he and his family to go through all these medical issues each and every year. But on the other hand, Zumaya still could be a great -- and dirt cheap -- pickup for the Twins. He's like an unscratched $1 lottery ticket with 1 in 100 odds. How many times do purchase a ticket, and not win, before you give up on the game?

What do you think? Assume for right now that Zumaya is undecided on retirement. Do you try to convince him to get the surgery and come back to the Twins next year for close to league minimum, or do you cut ties now and wish him good luck?

Did Joe Mauer -- and Twins Fans -- Need His 2011 Season to Happen?

It's often said that balance is necessary in order to understand the universe. How can you define "hot" without understanding "cold," contemplate "good" without a concept of "evil," or truly appreciate a nice Napa Valley Cabernet Sauvignon without having a few boxes of Franzia wine in your past?

Joe Mauer has spoiled the Twins and their fans for much of his professional career. He exceeded most reasonable expectations, and he met even most unreasonable expectations. He mostly stayed out of the spotlight for the first several years of his career, despite being an All-Star. Sure, Gatorade, Head & Shoulders and MLB the Show came calling, but until 2011, no one really cared. And he kept clear of negative press -- have you ever heard Mauer say a negative word about anyone, or read a story about him showing up drunk at a club in the offseason?

If you believe that the Fangraphs "value" indicator is of any merit, Joe Mauer has provided $145.8 million in value to the Twins during his career, while being paid significantly less -- $57 million in total through 2011. Unfortunately, 40 percent of Mauer's career salary came in 2011, undoubtedly his worst season as a professional baseball player. Of that $23 million paid out in salary, the Twins received only $7.9 million in value. It should come as no surprise that an All-Star catcher isn't worth very much money if he isn't catching, if he isn't at Target Field in the lineup, or if he isn't even traveling with the team, all of which were the case at various points in 2011.

If nothing else, Mauer's 2011 underscored just how valuable he is to the Twins when healthy, and how much of a game-changer he is, when healthy. I don't care so much about the home runs. In fact, Fangraphs suggests that Mauer was worth $22.4 million in 2010 to the Twins, when he only hit 9 home runs, drove in 75 runners, and had a .327/.402/.469 slash line -- remarkably similar to his career line of .323/.403/.471. Clearly, much of his value is tied up in defense at the all-important position of catcher. The fact that he has a career .874 OPS is icing on the cake.

I'm not suggesting that Mauer's contributions to the Twins were a complete surprise, or were simply a "lucky break" for fans: he was the first overall draft pick in 2001 and was expected to be a star; us fans pay him very, very well to be one of the best players in the game; and he finagled a huge contract out of the Twins' ownership. I am, however, suggesting that I'm going into 2012 with a newfound appreciation for just how great Joe Mauer has been for the first half of his career.

In my experience, there's a better appreciation for a new job or pay raise if you have ever been laid off, demoted, underemployed, or have taken a pay cut; there's a better appreciation for making a sports team and receiving that coveted jersey if you have ever scanned the final roster of names, only to find that yours isn't on the list; and there's a better appreciation for the feeling of being accepted to a college if you have ever received a thin rejection envelope in the mail. Sure, it would be nice if life didn't work that way, but that's not reality. Similarly, with respect to Mauer, perhaps his 2011 puts the rest of his career in better perspective.

If you're curious, Thrylos98 at the Tenth Inning Stretch has been doing some fantastic lists and rankings of all-time great Twins. For instance, he attempts to rank the all-time Twins most valuable player here, chronicles the season and career Twins OPS leaders here, and rates the franchise season and career slugging percentage leaders here. If you haven't, you should read these posts. But, even if you don't read this great work, I can cut to the chase for you: Mauer fares very, very well on all lists. In other words, halfway into his career, Mauer is already one of the best Twins -- ever.

Joe Mauer still has a lot of work to do in order to re-build his reputation as one of the game's best. He has to stay healthy, he has to catch regularly, and he has to bat over .300 in order to provide great "value" to the Twins -- whatever you definition of that word. But if there's one thing I can take from everything that was awful about Mauer's 2011, it's that it made me appreciate how great 2004-2010 were.

Twins fans -- and Mauer himself -- perhaps needed his 2011 season to happen. Without struggle, failure, and the realization that he is indeed aging as an athlete, fans might never have the opportunity to look at -- and appreciate -- 2004-2010 in a new light. And Mauer might not be coming into the second half of his career with a chip on his shoulder. Most overpaid veterans don't believe that they have something to prove going into Spring Training, but everything I have read the past several weeks suggests that Mauer is ready, perhaps for the first time, to shut critics up. Sure, I wish that Mauer's 2011 had been just as great as his 2004-2010, but that's not life. And because of that 2011, I think that fans are going to see a Joe Mauer in 2012 who, although familiar and friendly, will come ready to rebuild his reputation and lead the Twins into (hopefully) the next generation of competitiveness.

Breaking Minor League News: New Britain Rock Cats Have Been Sold

There is breaking Twins-related minor league news this afternoon in Central Connecticut, where it has been announced that the New Britain Rock Cats, which had done very well in the community and in terms of attendance, under owners Bill Dowling (former attorney for George Steinbrenner) and Coleman Levy (local attorney), is being sold to an investment group.

DSF Group, the purchaser, is a real estate and sports investment firm, and also owns the New Hampshire Fisher Cats (same division as the Rock Cats and AA affiliate of the Blue Jays), and the Bowling Green Hot Rods (Class A affiliate of Tampa Bay Rays). Interestingly, John Willi, who left the helm as the Rock Cats' general manager in 2010 to take a position at DSF, will be returning to that post.

I have a feeling that this is going to be an interesting story, especially as rumors have been floating around that the Rock Cats may change affiliation. I will be keeping track of this story and any further developments. But as a fan, as long as the ticket prices remain affordable, and the quality of baseball is good, I'll be happy to continue to support the Rock Cats.

Here's the article from the Hartford Courant detailing the sale.

Twinsdaily.com -- Early Review

I have to admit that I was quite surprised this past week to read that Seth Stohs, Parker Hagerman, John Bonnes and Nick Nelson -- the premier Twins bloggers that provide great Twinscentric content for the Star Tribune, among other publications -- had decided to give up their individual blogs and join forces. As I write that sentence, it almost sounds like something out of a comic book written for Twins geeks! They are now providing the great content, but for one individual website, Twinsdaily.com. Most of you who read this blog probably are already aware of the change, but for those few that weren't aware, well, now you are.

I recently started posting at Twinsdaily, and am very impressed with the content thus far. As expected, Seth, Parker, John and Nick are all doing their same things, but now other bloggers, such as myself, can post their articles so that we might attract new and different visitors, when compared to the same people that we know visit our personal blog every day. Already I've encountered some great Twins fans thanks to Twinsdaily. Moreover, Twins fans that don't have blogs -- and don't want one -- can still create and post content, and can also comment on other articles.

The possibilities of Twinsdaily are pretty exciting to think about. First, the Star Tribune now has a paywall, so without a subscription, you can't really actively read the articles and comment on the baseball boards anymore. The Pioneer Press, whose coverage isn't great anyway, seems to have their comment board linked with Facebook. I'm not on Facebook, and never will be, and I suspect that there are at least a few others like me. In the end, Twinsdaily should allow more people to have a voice and to express an opinion on the Twins.

I plan on attending both the New Britain Rock Cats opening night, and also two games of the Twins' opening series in Baltimore. I can post game recaps and pictures to Twinsdaily, and I can imagine that other fans will be doing the same thing throughout the professional season. Sure, I can do the same at my blog, and I certainly will, but it will be a good opportunity, I think, to reach out to other fans. In short, those of us with blogs can provide the same material, but to a larger platform, and there is an opportunity for those without Star Tribune subscriptions or Facebook accounts to have meaningful Twins-related conversations online.

I'll be taking a break from blogging for the next few days, most likely. It's time for the annual winter trip to Minnesota, and hopefully a stop at the Twins Pro Shop in Roseville to check out the new gear for 2012. Maybe I can get a discount on that Jason Repko jersey I have been coveting.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Brian Dozier, Player Development and the Future

Brian Dozier, Twins' shortstop of the future?

I have advocated in the past my belief that the best place for Tsuyoshi Nishioka to start 2012 would be AA New Britain or AAA Rochester. Unlike the front office, I'm not willing to give him a complete mulligan for 2011. I recognize that the broken leg derailed his season, but even prior to that injury -- and also when he came back supposedly healthy -- he was clearly overmatched. It's great that he worked on strength and conditioning in the offseason, but I'm not sure that those things, alone, make him better for the Twins in 2012.

From what I have read, the Twins will use Jamey Carroll as the everyday, starting shortstop (until he is eligible to begin collecting Social Security next season), and all signs point to Alexi Casilla getting the nod at second. The Twins have two more years left on Nishioka's contract, and roughly $6 million; that contract is untradeable right now. On the other hand, Twins shortstop prospect Brian Dozier had a great season at AA in 2011, and also performed very well in the Arizona Fall League. So we have one middle infield prospect, seemingly on the way up, and one major league middle infield player that, in my mind, needs to occupy a spot on some roster, somewhere, for the next two years before he is out of this organization.

Like the Twins' front office, I'm thinking toward the future. I'm not at all confident that we're looking at a playoff team here, so I think it's important to make moves that, although not fantastic or sexy in the short-term, don't handcuff the team in the long-term. By 2014 or 2015, there could be a good new wave of players, including Miguel Sano and Kyle Gibson, and the starting 9 probably will look very, very different.

With that being said, perhaps the best (or least worst) thing to do in 2012 is to have Nishioka be a bench player for the Twins, and give Dozier the starting SS job at Rochester for a full season -- or at least until he demonstrates that he's seen enough of AAA to be promoted. Having both Nishioka and Dozier on the same Rochester team simply doesn't make sense, especially if Dozier is the shortstop of the future for the Twins. I suppose the other option is to send Nishioka to New Britain, but based on Terry Ryan's comments that the team "wouldn't want to see it play out that way," with respect to sending Nishioka to Rochester, I have a feeling that such a New Britain assignment might not even be on the table. At the very least, it's definitely something to think about. I think the Twins' #1 priority with respect to this issue is setting themselves up to have a legitimate shortstop of the future, something they haven't had for a long time.

I'd be happy to hear your comments and ideas -- I'm not at all an expert on the Twins' minor league system, and I know that some of you will have more insight.

One 2012 Postseason Award the Twins Can Win

The way it seems right now, even with the optimism that accompanies Spring Training, it's tough to imagine the Twins hoisting the 2012 World Series trophy. In fact, I can't reasonably imagine the Twins having the AL Cy Young award winner on their pitching staff, or the AL MVP in their batting order. But there is one award that this team was built for: The Comeback Player of the Year.

According to the criteria, the award is given to a player judged to have "re-emerged on the baseball field during a given season." It's worth noting, for no other reason than that it's sort of funny, that the award is sponsored by Viagra. Historically, Comeback Player award winners, not surprisingly, were sidelined much of the previous season before returning to glory. For example, Lance Berkman won the award for the NL in 2011, after having a fantastic season. But in 2010, he batted only .248 and needed a knee surgery. Jacoby Ellsbury -- for many a favorite for the 2011 MVP award -- locked up the AL Comeback Player award in 2011. If you recall, he only played 18 games in 2010, primarily the result of an early season collision that fractured several ribs. So to say that he came back bigtime in 2011 is an understatement. Our own Francisco Liriano won the award in 2010, and was likely cited for his "full" recovery from Tommy John surgery that sidelined him in 2007, and that took a few years from which to rebound.

Doesn't this award just scream Twins in 2012? Here are a few odds-on favorites for the 2012 AL Comeback Player award.

Joel Zumaya: He hasn't thrown a pitch in a major league game since June 28, 2010, when he suffered a non-displaced fracture to his elbow. Prior to that, Zumaya had a solid career, winning the setup man of the year award in 2006. He had a 2.58 ERA in 2010 prior to his injury, and, for his career, Zumaya has a 3.05 ERA. If he's somehow healthy this season, I don't have much doubt he could instantly come to the top of the list of Twins relievers. It would be a good comeback story, especially considering the painful way that Zumaya last exited a game.

Joe Mauer: Since this award cites players for "re-emerg[ing] on the baseball field," it could rightfully be awarded to a player who, for several reasons, simply wasn't on the baseball field much in 2011. Whether it was the bilateral leg weakness that kept him out most of the first half of 2011, or the pneumonia that eventually sidelined him for good, Joe Mauer simply wasn't around much of last season. Reportedly, he spent a lot of time on the trainer's table, and even went to the Mayo Clinic for diagnosis and treatment. Sure, Mauer's story doesn't have the same appeal as, perhaps, Zumaya's, but it is worth mentioning. If Mauer can stay on the field, and remain healthy and productive this season, he could be a worthy candidate.

Justin Morneau: Here's a guy I would love to see win the award. Sidelined the final month of the 2009 season with a stress fracture in his lower back, the second half of 2010 after suffering a concussion, and off-and-on in 2011 as a result of approximately 30 different injuries, this could actually be more of a "lifetime achievement comeback" award for Morneau. A win for Morneau would mean that he stayed healthy (which in turn would mean that he remained symptom-free from his concussions), and that he played good baseball. In fact, Morneau probably doesn't have to hit 30 home runs and drive in 120 RBIs to win this award. A decent season might be enough for him.

Francisco Liriano: I'm pretty sure that simply being awful the previous season, in and of itself, doesn't qualify you for the award, but Liriano did have some time on the disabled list in 2011 -- in May, and again in August, if I recall. If, somehow, Liriano were to return to 2010 form, he might get some votes.

In the end, it looks like it takes a special story, such as overcoming a serious injury, coupled with good on-the-field play the next season, to win this award. The Twins, though, do have some promising candidates. Perhaps all the maladies suffered in 2011 could mean hardware in 2012? I'm not sure what the award itself looks like, but the fact that it is sponsored by Viagra does raise a red flag.

Jim Souhan: Hack Job

This is one of the times when it's really nice to have your own voice in the blogging community, completely independent of affiliated media, such as the Star Tribune or Pioneer Press, or the actual organization that I blog about, the Minnesota Twins. Within reason, and hopefully with some degree of accuracy, I can say exactly what I think, and know that, in reality, only a couple hundred people will read it anyway.



Yesterday, I read Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan's article, "Clueless Joe not Cutting it Anymore." If, by chance, you haven't read it, I would recommend doing so before you continue reading this post: I don't want my personal opinion to unnecessarily color your perception of Souhan's column.



OK, did you read it? Great. I'll continue, then.



It's no secret that Souhan hasn't exactly been in Joe's corner for some time now. Especially as Mauer combated physical injuries last season, as well as a blow to his public perception -- mostly a result of the confusing diagnosis of "bilateral leg weakness -- Souhan was pretty quick to take Mauer to task. And some of that criticism was very warranted. Mauer now admits that he should have been more up front last season with the media and the fans. I think it was foolish of Mauer to isolate himself from his teammates, and to isolate himself from the media. That's why rumors started that Joe had Lyme's Disease. Joe is a smart enough guy: I'm pretty confident that he has learned from his mistakes, and we've already seen more media accessibility this offseason from Mauer, assuring fans that he is 100% healthy and ready to go. Will Joe ever be the clubhouse leader that Michael Cuddyer or Torii Hunter was? Maybe not. But can he, in his own way, assume a powerful veteran leadership presence? Absolutely. And as fans, we don't know that he hasn't, or that his leadership style is unsuccessful.



Here are a couple snippets from Souhan's article: "Whether Mauer had anything to do with their mindsets or not is difficult to ascertain, but Joe Nathan and Michael Cuddyer, two long-term Twins who had spoken of wanting to end their careers in Minnesota, left in free agency . . . ." Yes, Jim, Joe Mauer shared responsibility for Cuddyer taking a considerably better offer than what the Twins made, and was also culpable for the fact that Joe Nathan wanted to pitch for a team that has been in back-to-back World Series (not to mention the fact that there's no guarantee that the Nathan of 2012 will be nearly as good as the Nathan of 2004-2009), as opposed for a team that just lost 99 games and filled their closer role for under $5 million -- considerably less than what Nathan agreed to with the Rangers.



"In the past six months, I've spoken with dozens of key people working at all levels of the Twins organization about Mauer. Most expressed disgust or dismay over the way he conducted himself last season." Ah yes, anonymous sources. I get that people in organizations that say scintillating things to journalists concerning their employer need to be protected, but I find it hard to believe that there are literally "dozens" of dissenters in the Twins organization that were literally champing at the bit waiting to talk to Jim Souhan about a private employment matter. Like any journalist, I'm sure that Souhan has his trusted and reliable sources, but this, Jim, sounds like a witch hunt.



Here's what I know: Joe Mauer has been the Twins' best player nearly every season he has suited up for them. No matter how you measure it -- Wins Above Replacement, Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, Batting Titles, Gold Gloves -- he's already approaching some all-time lists for the Twins. Mauer and his handlers made a pretty big error last season in the way that they skirted the media and the public in the face of his mysterious injuries. Most of the content in Souhan's piece has already been hashed and rehashed again, by Souhan and almost every other baseball writer, professional and blogger, in Minnesota (including myself, I'm sure). Mauer's 2011 was a big mistake, and I'm willing to bet that it won't happen again. For whatever reason, Souhan really has it out for Mauer. Perhaps things happened behind the scenes that soured Souhan? I know that Jim Souhan gets paid to write opinion pieces, and sometimes I enjoy his columns -- and I also think that Souhan is right when he essentially says that Mauer needs to step it up this year. But, as we hit Spring Training, and as we have been told and retold that Mauer is 100 % healthy, I find that it's tough not to be at least a little optimistic (or simply excited to see live baseball again), Souhan comes off as a Scrooge. Jim Scroogehan.

Odds of the Twins Being Competitive in 2012 & Friday Links

I'm not a mathematician or a statistician. In fact, I tried to avoid taking math in college. I do remember a few things, though. One of them is this: if you want to calculate the odds of two or more independent events occurring, you simply multiply the odds of each individual event together. As a practical example, you know that there is a 50% chance of a random flip of a coin ending up "heads." So what are the odds of getting 2 heads in a row? .5 x .5, or .25 -- which is 1 in 4. Three heads in a row would be .125, or 1 in 8.

Most every blogger, and even local and national baseball writers, are pointing to three separate things that, we all believe, will be very determinative of the success or failure of the Twins in 2012. In no particular order, those things are: Joe Mauer having a healthy and productive 2012; Justin Morneau demonstrating that he is fully recovered from his concussions and other issues and returning to the power threat that he once was; and Francisco Liriano re-establishing his dominance. There are other very important issues facing the Twins, like Denard Span's health, or whether Danny Valencia will be more like he was in 2010 than he was in 2011, but many people have isolated these three particular players because of their relative importance to the team.

I believe that, if these 3 things do, in fact, occur, the Twins could be a good team. They might not really compete with Detroit for the AL Central, but then again, Detroit is only a Justin Verlander or Prince Fielder injury away from being a significantly less dominant team than once thought (I'm not wishing injury on either of these players; my point is only that, as Twins fans, we certainly know how one or two injuries to star players can derail a team). But I do think that, with all the other Twins' weaknesses, these 3 things all need to coincide in the same year in order for this team to make it past the trade deadline in contention for the playoffs. So what are the odds of this taking place in 2012? Let's figure it out.

Without any insider knowledge, I'm just going to rely hunches and (hopefully) common sense to arrive at percentages for each player. For Mauer, I believe that there is an 80% chance he returns to his form in 2010, when he was very good. There is little or no chance of seeing a repeat of 2009, but that was a once-in-a-lifetime season, anyway. All fans, of course, would prefer a repeat of 2010 over 2011. I think Joe is going into the season completely healthy, and I believe there's a great chance that he has a solid year, putting together a .330 average and reaching base above a .400 clip.

Justin Morneau, on the other hand, has me understandably more skeptical. I think there's a 30% chance that he returns to his "old" form -- as in his form the first half of the season in 2010 when he was arguably on pace for another MVP award. This percentage is definitely just conjecture: he hasn't even participated in drills or games, so we have no idea whether he'll even be ready to start the season. In fact, 30% might be quite generous.

Francisco Liriano is so frustrating. Last season, we were hoping he could match, or improve upon, his 2010 stats, and he ended up being one of the worst pitchers in baseball; but he also threw a no-hitter and occasionally showed flashes of brilliance. I think there is a 40% chance that Liriano goes back to his 2010 form: he pitched in winter ball (though he did not do well), so it seems likely that he will come to camp in better shape than he did in 2011; additionally, he's only a season away from free agency, so he's pitching for a contract, whether it's with the Twins or another team.

So those are my guesses: 80% for Mauer; 30% for Morneau; 40% for Liriano. Multiplying those percentages together, you end up with 9.6%. Otherwise stated, based on my guesses, there is roughly a 10% chance of these three players reverting to 2010 form -- or post-concussion form in the case of Morneau. Not very good odds. Again, these are only three players out of the 25 that will be with the Twins this season, and, as always, there will be surprises, both good and bad, from other guys, some of whom we may not even know much about now. But I don't think it's an understatement to suggest that, especially in 2012, the Twins need good seasons from these three players in order to have any shot at having a year where they are not out of contention at the trade deadline.

Out of curiosity, I wonder how far off my figure of 9.6% will be from the preseason odds of the Twins winning the AL Central.

Now, onto a few links that I enjoyed reading this past week:

Seth Stohs at Sethspeaks.net had an excellent post discussing present and potential future aces in baseball.

If I didn't know better, I would think that JC over at Knuckleballsblog wasn't a big fan of Bud Selig. I can't tell you how furious I would be to not be able to watch basically any regional baseball teams based on licensing and broadcast blackouts, so I definitely have sympathy for JC. Although the native Minnesotan in me thinks that might just be another reason not to live in Iowa. Just sayin' . . . .

The Twins released their promotional schedule for 2012, and there are no bobblehead days. I've never been a bobblehead collector, but I do think they are kind of cool. I did get a Danny Valencia AA Rock Cats bobblehead this past season, though, so maybe I'm coming around. NoDak Twins Fan eulogized the demise of the bobblehead promotion in a creative and well-written post.

Topper Anton at Curve for a Strike contemplated Love and Baseball in a Valentine's Day post. Very well done!

Happy weekend, everyone!