I Can Fix the Pitching Rotation . . . for 2014

This season, the Twins are shelling out $28.25 million on their intended starting pitching staff. Here's the breakdown:

Twins fans are wondering when, and if, Kyle Gibson
will become part of the Twins' rotation

Scott Baker (will not pitch an inning this season): $6.5 million

Nick Blackburn: $4.75 million

Francisco Liriano: $5.5 million

Carl Pavano: $8.5 million

Jason Marquis: $3 million

As you can see, it adds up pretty fast, and no one player is making close to league minimum. Also, a few of these contracts aren't particularly good. Pavano is overpaid for what he produces (aside from the fact that he will probably pitch 200 innings this season), and I believe that the Twins could have done better for $3 million than Marquis, or could, at this point, just give the spot to a young guy.

It's no surprise that there will be massive turnover in this rotation over the next couple seasons. In fact, none of these guys is under contract for 2014. It seems as if Baker's time in Minnesota is likely over, unless he wants to come back to the Twins at a lower amount than the $9.5 million 2013 team option that will most certainly be declined. I guess that's a possibility. For right now, though, let's just assume, for what I'm about to propose, that Baker is out of the scenario. Additionally, the Twins hold an $8 million option on Nick Blackburn for 2014. For right now, I'll assume that they decline that option. Unless Blackburn can extended his perennial April and May success into the hot summer months, it's a lot of money to spend on a pitcher that can't consistently deliver quality starts.

The entire landscape of the Twins -- or at least many aspects of it -- could be very different in 2014. Justin Morneau might not be with the team, although I hope that's not the case. Denard Span could be traded as early as this season, especially if he remains healthy and it appears that Joe Benson is ready to take over in center field as part of a rebuild. Danny Valencia's job could have been usurped by Miguel Sano. And it's almost a foregone conclusion that Brian Dozier will be playing shortstop for the foreseeable future. In all, that sounds to me like the potential for a lot of contracts in 2014 that are close to league minimum, which is good news for the budget conscious Twins.

In my mind, some of that extra money saved in position player salaries would be well spend on pitching. Here's what I propose to get this team's pitching back on track for 2014. And I can do it for roughly the same amount:

1) Major Free Agent Signing. I'm targeting Zack Greinke, specifically. I wrote last week for Through the Fence Baseball on why we should try to get him. The common refrain is that the Twins need a pitcher that can miss bats, and Greinke might be our most attainable shot. Is he an ace? Perhaps. Perhaps not. It depends on your definition. But if he signed in Minnesota, he would instantly become our best starting pitcher since Johan Santana. With pitching payroll coming off the books, and with Greinke becoming a free agent after this season, I say the Twins go after him. $18 million/season.

2) Kyle Gibson. Admittedly there is no longer certainty as to whether we will ever see the pitcher that he once was on the path to becoming. He's out until late this summer recovering from Tommy John surgery. But he was so close beforehand. Aaron Gleeman still has Gibson as the #7 Twins prospect, incidentally. Perhaps he will not become the #2 starter that we dreamed about, but there is still a good chance that Gibson will be a solid starter for years to come in Minnesota. And, importantly, he'll be making close to league minimum. $500,000 (I'm ballparking a little here. Depending on when any of these rookies come up, they will get raises, so it could be a little more than that.).

3) Alex Wimmers. He's on the fast track. Yes, he's not nearly as close to The Show as Gibson is, but by promoting him to AA this season after only 40 innings in Ft. Myers, the Twins have indicated in no uncertain terms that Wimmers, if productive, will quickly climb the ladder. If he's successful this season, there's a chance that he could crack the Twins rotation at some point in 2013. $500,000.

4) Liam Hendriks. It sounds like Hendriks will get a lot of experience in 2012 now that Baker is shelved. He's making $480,000 this season. Let's assume that he's successful and put him, for the sake of argument, at $1.5 million in 2014.

These four pitchers put us at roughly $20.5 million. Let's round up just for budgeting purposes, and call it $22 million. We have some money left over for the 5th pitcher, so let's use it!

5) Solid veteran free agent signing, or Francisco Liriano. Don't laugh. I still hold out hope that Liriano can get his head under control. Don't get me wrong -- these first two starts were pretty awful -- but he looked so good just two weeks ago. Can the Twins get him for $8 million a season in a deal before he hits free agency? Do they even want to? Would they be crazy to? Or, are they looking for him to throw well so they can trade him? Yes, the signs point to Liriano not being with the Twins next season, but it's an option.

If the Twins don't go that route, that leaves them about $8 million to sign a pitcher. That money should get you a solid, middle of the rotation guy.

So, for around $30 million, we're set for 2014, in my mind, anyway. These young pitchers salaries' will escalate, so it will not be a $30 million rotation for the long-term (although they would be under team control for a few more years, so the raises would be reasonable). And don't forget that the Twins hopefully will draft a pitcher with the second overall selection in the 2012 amateur draft. Maybe this guy will be MLB ready by 2015? And, I'm sure I have forgotten about another prospect or two, such as Adrian Salcedo, that could crack the rotation in another few years.

I recognize that writing a list like this is speculative in nature. There's a chance that neither Wimmers nor Gibson ever throws a pitch at Target Field. But there's also a good chance that they realize their potential. For all the rotten luck the Twins have had (Baker's injury, Liriano's Tommy John surgery and subsequent inconsistent performance, and Blackburn not living up to his contract), it's about time that a few things go in the Twins favor.

So there you have it. 2012 doesn't look like Minnesota's season to win it all, and there are still some contracts on the book in 2013 (Jamey Carroll, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, even Morneau because his future is so tentative) that may prevent the Twins from making a big move, but they should definitely court Greinke and try to build a young rotation around him.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Finally, if you have time, check out my post today at Through the Fence Baseball, romanticizing, #34, Kirby Puckett.

Twins 2013 Pitching Rotation: Spots up for Grabs

I wrote a post last week that advocated signing Francisco Liriano to some sort of extension now -- buying low, essentially. Most of the comments that I received expressed agreement with the general idea of buying low on Liriano, if you could ($6-8 million a year, 2-3 years, and an incentive-laden deal was probably the general consensus), but also expressed the probability that Liriano and his agent would likely prefer to bank on Liriano having a better 2012 and testing out free agent market. That post, and the comments, got me thinking about the Twins' rotation for the 2013 season. Not that I'm at all comfortable with what we have going into 2012, but it's basically settled at this point that it's going to be Pavano, Liriano, Baker, Blackburn and Marquis. You can complain about it all you want, and I'll enjoy reading the complaints and agreeing with you, but it seems very unlikely that Terry Ryan will go after another free agent starter.

If that group is really the 2012 starting rotation, the 2013 rotation could be, and probably will be, quite different. Liriano, unless extended, will become a free agent after this upcoming season. If he pitches well (say, wins 15 games and has an ERA under 4.00), there will be some team, somewhere, that is willing to overpay for a wild, inconsistent lefty that occasionally is the best pitcher in the game and has thrown a no-hitter. My guess is that, if Liriano is successful in 2012, it will be his last season in Minnesota.

The Twins hold a $9.25 million club option for righty Scott Baker for the 2013 season. Baker is another confusing case. On the one hand, he seems very close to a #2 starter, and on the other hand, he has a propensity for giving up home runs and a history of injuries that have put him on the disabled list several times. If the Twins are lucky enough to get a full season of a healthy, productive Baker, I expect that they'll probably pick up that option, especially if they believe they are unlikely to hold on to Liriano long-term. But still, it's worth noting that Baker could become a free agent after the 2012 season if the Twins fail to pick up his option, so his future as a Twin is uncertain.

There is probably more certainty with the next few guys on this list, Nick Blackburn, Carl Pavano and Jason Marquis. I'll get Blackburn out of the way first, because the fact is that his contract, which runs through 2013 (with an $8 million club option for 2014), is not movable. Due to relatively serious injuries, and long periods of ineffective pitching, the Twins are stuck with Blackburn for the next couple seasons. The Twins are paying Carl Pavano $8.5 million in 2012, in the last year of a 2-year contract. On opening day 2013, Pavano would be 37. It's certainly possible that the Twins would try to keep Pavano for another year if he has a decent 2012 (I imagine the Twins' press release for that contract would contain the words "innings-eater," "veteran," and "leader" on several occasions), but it's also very possible to imagine his skill-set further deteriorating this upcoming season. And then there's Jason Marquis. I have every expectation that the 1-year, $3 million contract that he signed is viewed by the front office as a stop-gap between what the Twins have now, and what they hope to have in 2013 or 2014.

In the end, my guess is that by 2013, only 2 of the current 5 starters will be wearing Twins uniforms. I can imagine the Twins trying to keep one of either Baker or Liriano (by exercising Baker's option or extending Liriano), but not both. And we know that Nick Blackburn will be doing his thing for another couple years. Aside from that, Marquis and Pavano are aging veterans, and the Twins might be able to replace their production with younger, cheaper players.

We know that top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson is out for the 2012 season following Tommy John surgery, so who knows how fast or slow his recovery will be. I'm hopeful that he will rebound quickly. But it should be noted that there was no definite indication that he was ready for promotion to the big leagues. I'm not certain what role arm problems played in his 2011 stats, but it's worth noting that he was 3-8 with a 4.81 ERA in Rochester in 18 starts. Not exactly light-out. Liam Hendriks was a September call-up to an injury-depleted Twins team, and went 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in 23 1/3 innings. It was encouraging that he struck out 16 while walking only 6. His promotion showed that he's definitely a top Twins prospect, and with another year of seasoning, it's easy to imagine him taking over a rotation spot in 2013. Still, though, I'm sure more time at AAA would benefit Hendriks and the Twins in the long-run. And then there are your Brian Duensings and Anthony Swarzaks. Will they make it as MLB starters, or be confined to lesser roles? My guess is that there will be at least one more opportunity for each.

In short, between aging veterans and players poised for free agency in the near future, your 2013 Twins pitching staff could only vaguely resemble its 2012 counterpart. I still hold out hope that, someday, the Twins might engage in a bidding war for an established pitcher that could become a #1 starter, but until that day comes, it's probably more prudent to take a look at the contracts, the options, and who we have in New Britain and Rochester waiting in the wings.

Ideal Mix for Mauer

Not surprisingly, our athletic, superstar catcher -- yes, the same guy that could have played D1 football in Florida, was pretty darn good at basketball, and apparently is a respectable golfer and bowler, as well -- didn't embarrass himself at first base last night in Chicago. He committed no errors, made a couple nice plays in the field, and also was 3-for-5 with 2 RBIs. All in all, a good night. Now that Mauer ha cleared this first hurdle, it raises the larger and more imminent question: Where exactly do we go from here?

Justin Morneau is out at least until the beginning of August, and perhaps longer. That leaves at least a few weeks worth of games where Morneau will be unavailable to play first. Mauer, for his part, apparently views the move as both temporary and rare, saying "Like I said, the manager asked me to go over there and play, and I did tonight, and I had fun doing it. But I'm a catcher, and I think sometimes we lose track of that. That's what I'm here to do." Forgive us, Joe, if we have "lost track" of that; maybe it's because you didn't play a game at catcher for 2 of the first 3 months of the season?

If Joe Mauer is sincere about doing whatever it takes to help his team win and get back in the AL Central race (and I would like to think he is), here is what I think should happen until Morneau makes it back: Of the 5 starting pitchers, Mauer should catch for 3. This seems to be about all he can handle right now, anyway, and this will hopefully keep his legs fresh enough so that he is productive in the event the Twins are playing meaningful games in September. Ideally, on one of the other two days, he can play first base, and on the other of the two days, he can DH or sit, as the case may be. So that adds up to: 60 percent catcher; 20 percent first base; and hopefully a split of approximately 10 percent DHing and 10 percent sitting. This mix, which will of course be unnecessary when Morneau returns, also will allow Cuddyer to play more right field, a position at which he is much more comfortable, and where his good arm is of more use.

As far as which particular pitchers Mauer catches, I could care less. I really don't think that Carl Pavano deserves a personal catcher, but the way things have gone thus far, Pavano can have his way and have Butera catch his starts; perhaps Liriano can have Butera or Rivera, as well. Butera and Rivera are absolutely pathetic with a bat, so this is far from an ideal situation, but if Joe begins swinging well, I want his bat in the lineup as often as possible.

Further, easing Mauer into the idea of playing another position now, in 2011, is going to make the inevitable conversation that takes place in 2012 or 2013 that much easier for the front office and Gardy. The Twins are establishing a precedent now that Joe Mauer is not exclusively a catcher, and that he is a versatile athlete who will play wherever his manager directs him to play.

I have long since given up on the notion that Joe Mauer will be worth $23 million annually for his play on the field. Few of these contracts are ever really worth it to the team. I still think signing him was the right thing to do, though. Now, the focus should be on maximizing Mauer's value. He (hopefully) has several years left as an elite hitter, but now we know that his years as a youthful, vibrant catching phenom are past. The best value from the Twins' standpoint is to take advantage of the fact that Mauer, when healthy, can bat close to .350. They can find a place, or places, on the field for him in the future. To destroy part of his value now by acquiescing to his statements that he is "here to catch" will be a disservice both to Mauer and to the organization.

Carl Pavano's Personal Catcher

Tonight, Pavano is starting for the Twins in the Bronx. As always, it will be tough to eke out a win against the Yankees. It will be even more difficult, however, if Pavano's "personal catcher," Drew Butera, starts tonight.

I generally have no problem with an ace pitcher requesting a certain catcher. If it makes them more comfortable, and helps them to pitch better, then so be it. But Pavano really isn't an ace pitcher. To be sure, he is an above-average, veteran MLB pitcher who has played very well for Minnesota, and who chose to come back to the Twins when he could have had other offers. But it is a stretch to describe Pavano, holder of a career 4.37 ERA, as an ace.

Drew Butera is a very good defensive catcher, and a horrible hitter. Now, we all know that Joe Mauer will need days off to keep his legs and knees in playing condition, so it makes sense to have a reliable back-up backstop on the team. And Butera nicely fills that role on the defensive side, which is his primary function. But to suggest that, regardless of the day, the schedule, and the pitching match-up, Mauer will not catch when Pavano pitches, is ridiculous. Tonight, old foe Freddy Garcia will be taking the hill for the Yankees. In a pretty decent sample size, it is evident that Mauer has had excellent success against Garcia, batting .419 (13 for 31), with 2 HRs. It appears that Butera has never faced Garcia, but I would take my chances with Mauer any day against Garcia.

Finally, although it's only the first week in April, this is an important game for the Twins. If Pavano can keep us in the game, the fact that this team has had proven success against Garcia, and is coming off a "surprise" win in NY, bodes well for their chances tonight. To give the Twins the best chance, Mauer should be catching and batting third. Let him, if necessary, take tomorrow off: Thursday is a day game after a night game, anyway, so that makes more sense to me.