Rock Cats: A Tough Week-Plus

If you're familiar with this blog, you know that this image
signifies that the Rock Cats are in the midst
of a losing streak

Just like their parent club, the New Britain Rock Cats have hit a tough spell. In fact, their last victory was May 11 vs. Portland, and since that 5-4 win, the Cats have lost 8 consecutive games. In those 8 games, the Rock Cats have combined to score a grand total of 18 runs, while allowing 52. It's not tough to see the problems: they aren't scoring enough, and are allowing too many runs (how's that for analysis?).

But let's dig a little deeper. There are other things -- some good -- at play. First, infielder James Beresford, who had been on the disabled list with a pulled groin, just returned to action this past weekend. Beresford had been off to a hot start before missing 2 weeks. In his first 4 games back, he has 6 hits (in 17 at-bats), and is batting .340 on the season. I frequently write about Beresford, and it's for a reason: although he isn't a top Twins prospect, he has a very good glove, and has demonstrated this season that his bat has caught up to AA pitching. If the hot bat continues, I'd be surprised if Beresford isn't promoted by July. So keep checking his stats!

Second, New Britain had been playing without a dedicated third baseman for a couple weeks, after Minnesota's own Nate Hanson was promoted to Rochester. Luckily, Deibinson Romero's visa issues were resolved, and he joined the team earlier this week. He's off to a good start, hitting .370 with 2 doubles and 2 home run in the first 7 games. In fact, he had 3 hits in each of his last 2 games. Romero, not a fantastic defender, was dependable on offense last year, so in the long run, his presence in the middle of the Cats' lineup will create more punch. Don't forget, last season, Romero hit 19 home runs and 23 doubles for New Britain, so he's no slouch with the bat.

Now, let's discuss our top stating pitching prospects: Meyer and May, hopefully our next "M & M Boys." They haven't been as successful the proverbial second time around the league. In his starts this month, Meyer hasn't lasted longer than 5 and 1/3 innings, but has 17 Ks to go along with 7 BBs. The problem, though, is that he's been allowing more than 1 hit an inning, and has given up 9 earned runs in these last 3 starts (a cumulative 15 innings). So yes, he's still missing bats -- 51 Ks and 18 BBs in 43 innings -- but he hasn't been going as deep into games. If these last 3 games are like the game I attended last month, it's because Meyer is struggling to either finish off hitters with a strikeout (instead, he would allow them to come back in a count), or locate his fastball. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Meyer has a 3.56 ERA. He's 23. He's tied for 3rd in the Eastern League in strikeouts. Yes, areas for improvement have been identified, but isn't that what the point of the minor leagues is? Instruction. Opportunity for improvement.

Finally, Trevor May. This month, May had 2 very good starts, and 1 clunker. His first 2 starts both lasted 7 innings, and he only gave up 1 earned run, striking out a combined 13 and walking 3. His most recent start was tough: only 4 innings, 5 earned runs, 3 Ks and 2 BBs. After allowing only 5 total hits in those first 2 starts, May surrendered 9 in the most recent. Let's talk about progress, though: May has not allowed a home run in his last 5 starts, after allowing 1 home run in each of his first 3 starts. His current strikeout-to-walk ratio is 40-21.But in those last 3 starts, the ratio is 16-5 -- better than 3-to-1. Both Meyer and May still have some distance to go before they are ready for Target Field. Meyer needs to better locate his fastball, and May still has to work on control so that he can work deeper into games on a more consistent basis.

One final note: after a very slow start, shortstop Danny Santana is hitting .280/.297/.354, including .366/.395/.415 over his last 10 games. Again, with this team, this year, I'm looking for individual progress and development.

Check back in a couple days. I'm attending Wednesday's Rock Cats game. Alex Meyer is scheduled to throw. But if Tuesday's game is cancelled, there's a chance that Trevor May will be on the hill. Either way, there will be something to write about, and I'll be tweeting from the press box.

I Can Fix the Pitching Rotation . . . for 2014

This season, the Twins are shelling out $28.25 million on their intended starting pitching staff. Here's the breakdown:

Twins fans are wondering when, and if, Kyle Gibson
will become part of the Twins' rotation

Scott Baker (will not pitch an inning this season): $6.5 million

Nick Blackburn: $4.75 million

Francisco Liriano: $5.5 million

Carl Pavano: $8.5 million

Jason Marquis: $3 million

As you can see, it adds up pretty fast, and no one player is making close to league minimum. Also, a few of these contracts aren't particularly good. Pavano is overpaid for what he produces (aside from the fact that he will probably pitch 200 innings this season), and I believe that the Twins could have done better for $3 million than Marquis, or could, at this point, just give the spot to a young guy.

It's no surprise that there will be massive turnover in this rotation over the next couple seasons. In fact, none of these guys is under contract for 2014. It seems as if Baker's time in Minnesota is likely over, unless he wants to come back to the Twins at a lower amount than the $9.5 million 2013 team option that will most certainly be declined. I guess that's a possibility. For right now, though, let's just assume, for what I'm about to propose, that Baker is out of the scenario. Additionally, the Twins hold an $8 million option on Nick Blackburn for 2014. For right now, I'll assume that they decline that option. Unless Blackburn can extended his perennial April and May success into the hot summer months, it's a lot of money to spend on a pitcher that can't consistently deliver quality starts.

The entire landscape of the Twins -- or at least many aspects of it -- could be very different in 2014. Justin Morneau might not be with the team, although I hope that's not the case. Denard Span could be traded as early as this season, especially if he remains healthy and it appears that Joe Benson is ready to take over in center field as part of a rebuild. Danny Valencia's job could have been usurped by Miguel Sano. And it's almost a foregone conclusion that Brian Dozier will be playing shortstop for the foreseeable future. In all, that sounds to me like the potential for a lot of contracts in 2014 that are close to league minimum, which is good news for the budget conscious Twins.

In my mind, some of that extra money saved in position player salaries would be well spend on pitching. Here's what I propose to get this team's pitching back on track for 2014. And I can do it for roughly the same amount:

1) Major Free Agent Signing. I'm targeting Zack Greinke, specifically. I wrote last week for Through the Fence Baseball on why we should try to get him. The common refrain is that the Twins need a pitcher that can miss bats, and Greinke might be our most attainable shot. Is he an ace? Perhaps. Perhaps not. It depends on your definition. But if he signed in Minnesota, he would instantly become our best starting pitcher since Johan Santana. With pitching payroll coming off the books, and with Greinke becoming a free agent after this season, I say the Twins go after him. $18 million/season.

2) Kyle Gibson. Admittedly there is no longer certainty as to whether we will ever see the pitcher that he once was on the path to becoming. He's out until late this summer recovering from Tommy John surgery. But he was so close beforehand. Aaron Gleeman still has Gibson as the #7 Twins prospect, incidentally. Perhaps he will not become the #2 starter that we dreamed about, but there is still a good chance that Gibson will be a solid starter for years to come in Minnesota. And, importantly, he'll be making close to league minimum. $500,000 (I'm ballparking a little here. Depending on when any of these rookies come up, they will get raises, so it could be a little more than that.).

3) Alex Wimmers. He's on the fast track. Yes, he's not nearly as close to The Show as Gibson is, but by promoting him to AA this season after only 40 innings in Ft. Myers, the Twins have indicated in no uncertain terms that Wimmers, if productive, will quickly climb the ladder. If he's successful this season, there's a chance that he could crack the Twins rotation at some point in 2013. $500,000.

4) Liam Hendriks. It sounds like Hendriks will get a lot of experience in 2012 now that Baker is shelved. He's making $480,000 this season. Let's assume that he's successful and put him, for the sake of argument, at $1.5 million in 2014.

These four pitchers put us at roughly $20.5 million. Let's round up just for budgeting purposes, and call it $22 million. We have some money left over for the 5th pitcher, so let's use it!

5) Solid veteran free agent signing, or Francisco Liriano. Don't laugh. I still hold out hope that Liriano can get his head under control. Don't get me wrong -- these first two starts were pretty awful -- but he looked so good just two weeks ago. Can the Twins get him for $8 million a season in a deal before he hits free agency? Do they even want to? Would they be crazy to? Or, are they looking for him to throw well so they can trade him? Yes, the signs point to Liriano not being with the Twins next season, but it's an option.

If the Twins don't go that route, that leaves them about $8 million to sign a pitcher. That money should get you a solid, middle of the rotation guy.

So, for around $30 million, we're set for 2014, in my mind, anyway. These young pitchers salaries' will escalate, so it will not be a $30 million rotation for the long-term (although they would be under team control for a few more years, so the raises would be reasonable). And don't forget that the Twins hopefully will draft a pitcher with the second overall selection in the 2012 amateur draft. Maybe this guy will be MLB ready by 2015? And, I'm sure I have forgotten about another prospect or two, such as Adrian Salcedo, that could crack the rotation in another few years.

I recognize that writing a list like this is speculative in nature. There's a chance that neither Wimmers nor Gibson ever throws a pitch at Target Field. But there's also a good chance that they realize their potential. For all the rotten luck the Twins have had (Baker's injury, Liriano's Tommy John surgery and subsequent inconsistent performance, and Blackburn not living up to his contract), it's about time that a few things go in the Twins favor.

So there you have it. 2012 doesn't look like Minnesota's season to win it all, and there are still some contracts on the book in 2013 (Jamey Carroll, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, even Morneau because his future is so tentative) that may prevent the Twins from making a big move, but they should definitely court Greinke and try to build a young rotation around him.

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Finally, if you have time, check out my post today at Through the Fence Baseball, romanticizing, #34, Kirby Puckett.