AA and AAA: Where is the Offense??



The look of a displaced man who will
never again see Target Field



For purposes of this post, I need to start of with 2 limitations: First, I'm thinking about players in the upper levels of the minor leagues that have yet to "make it" with the Twins in any real sense of that phrase. I'll exclude from this discussion Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee and Darin Mastroianni, because they are all playing for the Twins right now, and Sean Burroughs, because he is too old to be a legitimate prospect. Second, for simplicity, I'm just going to look at batting average. I have linked to each player's stats, so you can explore in greater depth their production this season. Although I recognize that things like on-base percentage and OPS are also great measurements -- perhaps even better indicators of batting prowess -- I'm just focusing today on these position players' ability to hit for average. With those caveats . . . where is the offense in the upper levels of the Twins minor league system?

Let's start in Rochester. Right now, the Red Wings' highest batting average comes from Matt Carson, who is going to turn 31 in less than a month and is batting .296. It's a pretty steep drop after that. Ray Chang (turning 29 in August) and Pedro Florimon (25 years old) are batting .248. Wilkin Ramirez, 26 and with major league experience, is hitting .242. And possibly the worst stats come from two players Twins fans wish they could be counting on in 2012: Danny Valencia is hitting .238, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka is batting .223. Finally, remember Brian Dinkelman? Hitting .186. Based on the player age and level of experience, it might be a safe bet to call Pedro Florimon our best hitting "prospect" at AAA right now.

The circumstances in New Britain are better, but not by leaps and bounds. James Beresford, 23 years old and teetering around .300 last week, is hitting a respectable and solid .286. Nathan Hanson, 25, is hitting .279. Both players have been very hot the past couple weeks, raising their averages by 20 points or so. Catcher Chris Herrmann, 24, has been streaky this year, and is currently at an even .260. Deibinson Romero, 25, has shown power, and is batting .250. Aaron Hicks, only 22, is hitting .244 and is currently sidelined with an ankle injury. Finally, Evan Bigley, 25, is hitting .234. In terms of legitimate prospects and batting production, I might order the top few AA players Herrmann, Hicks, Beresford and Romero -- based on what they have done this season.

I have omitted some players, but none that have impressive offensive stats or are young enough to be considered legitimate major league prospects. The bottom line is that, midway through the 2012 season, there isn't a AA or AAA player batting .300 (incidentally, the highest OPS at AA is Romero's .769; at AAA it is Carson's .825). This post isn't intended to be an indictment on the Twins' farm system as much as it is a quick evaluation of where our best hitters are. And the answer to that question appears to be the lower levels of the minors. Just today, Oswaldo Arcia was promoted to New Britain. Hopefully he can inject some life into the recently sputtering Rock Cats offense. I'm hoping his .309/.376/.517 line at Ft. Myers can carry over into central Connecticut.

Wednesday Rock Cats Report

New Britain is looking for more
consistency from center fielder
Aaron Hicks

Last night's Rock Cats-Fisher cats game was postponed for weather. If the weather in New Hampshire last night was anything like the weather in central Connecticut, postponing was definitely a good idea! With the day off, let's assess how the team is doing, and take a look at a few specific players. The Rock Cats are 29-21, a .580 winning percentage that is good for first place in their division. They are still just 0.5 games ahead of the Reading Phillies, who looked pretty good when I saw them play earlier this month. The Trenton Thunder, at 26-22, are in third place.

Many of the batting averages have settled into the .240-.260 range. There is no current Rock Cats player that is batting even close to .300, and no player has an OPS over .800. As I mentioned yesterday, one guy to keep an eye on is catcher Chris Herrmann. After a slow start, he's been playing well lately, batting .324 over his last 10 games. He's fourth on the team in OPS (.721) and tied for first in batting average (.260).

Aaron Hicks continues to confuse me. I'll start with the positives: from what I have seen, his defense, speed and base running skills are all there. He's got a good arm, too. He's very inconsistent on offense, and I think part of that inconsistency is due to the fact that he is not a solid batter from the left side of the plate. Perhaps, after this season, the organization will make the decision for Hicks that he's better off batting exclusively right-handed. Compared to last season in High A, the walk % is a little lower, the strikeout percentage is a little higher, and the BAPIP is also lower. On the season, he's hitting .246/.335/.392. His last 10 game have been a little better, though: .273/.375/.424 (1 HR and 2 2B in that time frame). It's safe to say that, if the season ended today, Hicks would not have earned a promotion to AAA. In March, I questioned whether Hicks was ready for AA. From what I have seen, he was ready, and he fits in well here. But he definitely has not demonstrated that he is even close to ready for the next level. Hopefully he can settle into a routine and start hitting more consistently as the summer comes.

Finally, I get somewhat frequent questions or comments on Deibinson Romero, probably for a couple reasons: first, he has had a decent year at the plate, and has shown some power; and second, anyone who looks at all decent at third base in the Twins minor league system necessarily will be intriguing to fans as a possible stop-gap between what we have now, and Miguel Sano (unless he outgrows the position). Romero's slash line on the year is .253/.344/.414. It's probably safe to say that he has been one of the two or three best hitters on the club. He, too, has been better over his last 10 games, going .273/.375/.455 with 2 HR and 6 walks. One positive thing: Romero has improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio. Last season, he whiffed 93 times and walked only 40; thus far in 2012, he has struck out 27 times and walked 19. Romero will be 26 years old in September and, barring a promotion this season, it will be his second full season in New Britain. As I have mentioned in other posts, however, the defense is hurting Romero. He has 6 errors on the season, and quite simply does not look sure-footed at the hot corner.

Romero is an interesting case, though: for an organization lacking depth at third base, he has shown the ability to hit for decent power. Is his defense a lost cause, or is there someone, somewhere in the organization that can help this guy take the next step? Sure, I have every expectation that Danny Valencia will work his way back to Minnesota, and I do believe that Valencia can be an adequate big league third baseman, but it certainly doesn't hurt to have some competition.

Tonight the Rock Cats are back in action against the Fisher Cats, and the series concludes with a Thursday morning getaway game. Over the weekend, New Britain hosts the Harrisburg Senators. Be sure to check back for updates! Finally, if you feel like voting for any of the Twins prospects for the 2012 AA All-Star game, you can do so here.

Camden Yards Recap: Twins Begin Their Losing Ways, or an Aberration?

Camden Yards from the hotel window.

Well, the baseball side of things left a lot to be desired, but you're not much of a baseball fan if you can't have a great time at opening weekend at Camden Yards. Before Friday's game, I got to say hi to veteran blogger Topper Anton from Curve for a Strike. Great guy, and it was cool to meet another east coast transplant Twins blogger. There were also several Twins fans in attendance. We sat next to the coaching staff's wives one day, and also near Josh Willingham's family another day. I also ran into a guy I went to high school with. It was a good sized, and vocal, community of Twins fans sitting near their dugout. And, as usual, the players were pretty responsive to the fans. Denard Span, especially, spent a lot of time signing autographs before Sunday's game.

So far, Morneau looks like a man on a mission to hit the
ball as hard as possible.

I'll start with the one positive from the Twins' side: Justin Morneau is, far and away, the best hitter on this team right now. A month ago, who would have thought that? I attended the Saturday and Sunday games. In those 2 games, Morneau hit 2 hard doubles (1 looked like a home run off the bat, but didn't have the height), one hard single that nearly took off the first baseman's foot, and had 2 long outs to the outfield, one of which missed being a home run by 5 feet or so. He also worked ahead in the count, and was selectively choosing which pitches to swing at. There was little of the flailing that we saw last season, and he didn't bail out on any pitches. Morneau is so locked in that, if he stays healthy, he should hit 20 home runs and at least 40 doubles.

Francisco Liriano warming up before he, and the Twins,
imploded

Saturday, Francisco Liriano looked like he was going to be great after the first inning. He struck out the side convincingly, and Joe Mauer actually tossed me the game ball as he jogged back to the dugout. That first inning, unfortunately, was the highlight of the game for the Twins. Yes, Liriano was not good the rest of the game, but I'm pegging a lot of that on the defense -- Josh Willingham, and to a lesser extent, Danny Valencia. The defense was cringe-worthy, and that, along with Liriano becoming a head-case after giving up a relatively unimportant solo home run in the second inning, undid the Twins. Like everyone else, I was expecting a lot better from Liriano. If he can't get his head under control -- against the Orioles in April -- I don't know what to do with him. Hopefully, it was just a rocky start and he'll rebound later this week. He was probably angry with his performance, and angry with his teammates. Rightfully so on both counts.

I don't have very many other positive things to say. Anthony Swarzak was decent yesterday. He kept the Twins in the game, even as they were getting no-hit into the seventh inning. Jamey Carroll looked good at shortstop, but bad at the plate. He doesn't have a hit yet, but he does run hard down to first base, so there's that. Valencia is off. He grounded into 2 double plays Saturday and, though he wasn't charged with an error in that game, have a mental lapse on a play where he should have covered third base, but did not. During infield practice yesterday, the coaches were working with Valencia. Perhaps he is on a short leash again, because Sean Burroughs started at third on Sunday, while Valencia watched. Chris Parmelee looked like a rookie out there. His at-bats weren't very good on the whole, but there's room for optimism with him.

After the small sample size, I'm left thinking that this Twins team isn't nearly as bad as they played this past weekend, but also isn't very good, either. There are going to be defensive concerns all over the place. Left field and right field could be problem areas. Willingham didn't look very comfortable in the small left field of Camden Yards -- I wonder how he will fare at Target Field? And the offense was troubling, to say the least. Baltimore's pitchers were just adequate this weekend, and the Twins made them, for the most part, look like All-Stars. Not a good way to start out. I still think this could be a .500 team, but the offense has to start clicking.

On a side note, I love Target Field, but Camden Yards is still #1 for this fan. I will say, though, that Target Field definitely has Baltimore beat in terms of concessions. Sure, we don't have softshell crab sandwiches at our ballpark, but that's about the only unique food at Camden Yards. The rest seemed to be hot dogs, popcorn and burgers. Also, it is nice having the open concourse at Target Field. We missed over an inning of Saturday's game searching for food, and it would have been nice to have had that open view of the stadium. So, in its 20 years, Camden has aged a little bit. But without Camden Yards, there's no footprint for PNC in Pittsburgh, San Francisco's great stadium, and even Target Field. Happy anniversary to the "parent" stadium for this great new generation of classic American ballparks.

After catching Liriano's third strikeout in the first inning,
Mauer looked at me as he was jogging back to the dugout.
I was wearing a "HC" hat, which is the nickname for
New Britain (Hardware City). It looks like a TC Twins hat.
He sort of pointed at me, and flipped the ball right to me
over the Twins' dugout.

Mr. & Mrs. Fan From Afar

What's Left to Hope For?

With the Twins officially out of contention for the playoffs, and with their inability to play decent professional baseball, I've mentally turned ahead to 2012. But because there is still baseball left on the 2011 calendar, here's my wish list for the last few weeks of Minnesota baseball:

1. Good debuts for Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee. Parmelee has looked better at the plate so far, but I'm hopeful that Benson will get it going in Detroit this weekend. I just saw him last week at New Britain, and he was mashing the ball there.

2. Health for Mauer and Morneau. If either are unable to compete, I'd just assume call it a season for them, and let them start their off-season rest/conditioning a little early. If they are healthy, well I'd love to see them hit the ball hard and far. I don't care if they fall in for hits, leave the ballpark, or are just loud outs, but it at least would be a sign that our sluggers can still drive the ball.

3. Ben Revere getting that batting average and on-base percentage up. There's no question about his ability to track down baseballs in center field, but it is fair to expect more than a .250 batting average. For these last few weeks, it would be great to see Ben hit like he did at all levels of the minors, and reach base at a higher clip.

4. Joe Mauer doesn't fall behind new Yankees' slugger Jesus Montero for home runs. It does not bode well for Mauer that Montero hit 2 home runs in his first 13 big league at-bats, and that Joe currently has 2 home runs . . . in 281 at-bats. I don't hold out much hope for that one.

5. Good defense. From everyone. Especially Danny Valencia. Nothing fancy. Just know how many outs there are, field balls, and throw with some degree of accuracy to the correct base.

This is a modest list. The way this season has gone, it's difficult to even be optimistic about 2012. But I guess that's what we do. And the best way to head into 2012 would be to finish out 2011 playing well, both individually and as a team.

Ron Gardenhire v. Danny Valencia

Shame on you, Gardy. Leave Danny alone.

Here's just a short list of what's gone wrong with the Twins this year:

1) Injuries to Joe Mauer, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Jason Kubel, Jim Thome, Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, Kevin Slowey, and others, most recently Denard Span; 2) Justin Morneau not back to the player he once was; 3) the worst bullpen in baseball; 4) Delmon Young's serious offensive regression and awful play in the outfield after what we all hoped was a turning point in 2010; 5) Alexi Casilla straddling the Mendoza line until just 2 weeks ago. Any one or two of these items combined is certainly stress-inducing for any manager.

Notwithstanding all these problems, Gardy has chosen to focus his scorn recently on Danny Valencia. To be sure, Valencia is not having a good season, toting a .218/.281/.333 line with 5 home runs. Clearly, he has regressed from his 2010 breakout line of .311/.351/.448 in 85 games. It probably was unreasonable to expect him to maintain his 2010 line in 2011, given his somewhat pedestrian minor league numbers. Still, though, no one likely expected the significant drop we have seen so far. His defense has also suffered, having committed 5 errors in 58 games.

Given the numbers, it is easy to understand Gardy's frustration with Valencia: Valencia isn't playing well, and it might be too late in the season to call it a slump. Noting that Valencia had played in all the team's games thus far, Gardy gave him the night off Monday against Cleveland. But it wasn't just for a rest. Here is Gardy's quote from the Monday game: "He's been playing in every game and has not been swinging worth a flip. In Kansas City he was pulling off the ball. Just sit him out, give him a break and let him sit back and watch a ballgame. Probably get him right back tomorrow. Depends if he gets Wally Pipped by [Luke] Hughes."

Maybe that quote wasn't so bad. On one hand, Gardy acknowledged, in so many words, that Valencia is tired, wasn't batting well and needed a break. But then he had to throw in the little jab about getting "Wally Pipped," a reference of course to the Yankees player who was benched in favor of a young Lou Gehrig. We all know how that one turned out for old Wally.

Back to Valencia. He also sat Tuesday's game, with the exception of pinch hitting for Rene Rivera in the 8th inning. Regarding Valencia, Gardy stated: "It'll be good for him, because I know his head's going to be spinning now, and you know what, sometimes that's a good thing. Maybe get him a little fired up and stay focused." Regarding Gardy's role as the manager, he said: "I like it when you can irritate people as a manger. It's good. I get irritated all the time, so sometimes a manager gets a chance to irritate people a little bit and that kind of maybe will get a little extra oomph out of him. We'll see. [Valencia] hasn't come in here yet, so . . . I dare him. Just kidding."

That's seriously enough, Gardy. Stop it. I've given you a pass on this season. No manager, not even the manager of the year, is going to be able to field a winning team with starting lineups featuring 5 or 6 players each night from AAA. Sure, maybe there will be patches of good baseball, but over the course of a 162 game season, I don't think any team can compete with the caliber of players we have been forced to play. So, I understand your frustration, Ron. But don't take it out on Valencia to this degree. Sure, he's immature and annoying, and it's exacerbated when he's playing awful. But there are so many other problems in 2011 that, to waste your breath repeatedly dogging Valencia, is time and energy misspent.

In case you haven't noticed, we don't exactly have another stud third basemen waiting in the wings, and something tells me the front office doesn't have plans to go spend money on the market this summer for a veteran upgrade - - there are simply way too many other areas of weakness. I get that Valencia doesn't fit into the Twins' mold of quiet and humble guys, and I also understand how annoying it might be if he is cocky and arrogant, all while batting .218. But that's the way he is. In fact, one can make the argument that the Twins' mold of quiet, compassionate leaders hasn't resulted in postseason success.

I think the veteran players in the clubhouse will be more effective, over time, in molding Valencia, than will Gardy's jabs in the press. I expect Valencia to start the Wednesday matinee against the Indians. We'll see what, if anything, Gardy says, and perhaps how Valencia reacts, through his play.

Baltimore Game 4 . . . 2 Days Late

I made it to Camden Yards for the final game of the Twins-Orioles series. Because the Orioles have been so bad in recent years, tickets are easy to come by. We ended up sitting 2 rows above the Twins dugout, and were surrounded (mostly) by Twins fans, many from Minnesota. It was a very friendly group, and it was awesome to hear this section yelling the Twins players' nicknames (Koobs, Cuddy, etc.). It was also neat to see media "personalities" and Twins' heroes Bert Blyleven and Tim Laudner in the Twins' dugout chatting up players and doing their homework before the game.

For those that have never been, Camden Yards is an excellent stadium, one of the best places to watch a ballgame. We arrived early for batting practice, and a few guys, including Cuddyer, Thome and Valencia, did not disappoint. Similarly, the Twins did not disappoint. Scott Baker was dealing all night long. His fastball was lively, and there were only a few well struck balls against him. In fact, he was so dominant that I never felt that the game was in jeopardy with him on the mound, despite the Twins' small lead.

Hero of the game: Jim Thome. I haven't seen him play, in person, since he played for the Cleveland Indians. I suppose we have both aged. It was pretty cool to see home run # 591 from about 50 feet away. Although it wasn't hit quite as far as his home run earlier this year at Target Field, this was a well struck baseball, reaching the bleachers in center field; most importantly, it got the Twins on the board early in the game, something which has been lacking in 2011. Later in the game, Thome delivered a single with runners in scoring position - - again, another statistic in which the Twins have been lagging. Michael Cuddyer hit a no-doubter to straight-away left field, Matt Capps pitched well in the ninth, and I think Alexi Casilla even singled and scored somewhere in there (on Thome's single), so it was a pretty good game, and, most importantly, a Twins' victory.

It's great to write about the Twins, and to listen to the games on the radio, or watch the games on tv, but the best thing of all is live, outdoor baseball. Further, on a personal level, I connected with a childhood friend and fellow Minnesota native who now lives "in the beltway," so it was a great opportunity to share baseball with another Twins fan.

Finally, Baltimore being the home of my childhood hero, Cal Ripken, Jr., I had to get a picture with his plaque on Eutaw Street.