AA and AAA: Where is the Offense??



The look of a displaced man who will
never again see Target Field



For purposes of this post, I need to start of with 2 limitations: First, I'm thinking about players in the upper levels of the minor leagues that have yet to "make it" with the Twins in any real sense of that phrase. I'll exclude from this discussion Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee and Darin Mastroianni, because they are all playing for the Twins right now, and Sean Burroughs, because he is too old to be a legitimate prospect. Second, for simplicity, I'm just going to look at batting average. I have linked to each player's stats, so you can explore in greater depth their production this season. Although I recognize that things like on-base percentage and OPS are also great measurements -- perhaps even better indicators of batting prowess -- I'm just focusing today on these position players' ability to hit for average. With those caveats . . . where is the offense in the upper levels of the Twins minor league system?

Let's start in Rochester. Right now, the Red Wings' highest batting average comes from Matt Carson, who is going to turn 31 in less than a month and is batting .296. It's a pretty steep drop after that. Ray Chang (turning 29 in August) and Pedro Florimon (25 years old) are batting .248. Wilkin Ramirez, 26 and with major league experience, is hitting .242. And possibly the worst stats come from two players Twins fans wish they could be counting on in 2012: Danny Valencia is hitting .238, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka is batting .223. Finally, remember Brian Dinkelman? Hitting .186. Based on the player age and level of experience, it might be a safe bet to call Pedro Florimon our best hitting "prospect" at AAA right now.

The circumstances in New Britain are better, but not by leaps and bounds. James Beresford, 23 years old and teetering around .300 last week, is hitting a respectable and solid .286. Nathan Hanson, 25, is hitting .279. Both players have been very hot the past couple weeks, raising their averages by 20 points or so. Catcher Chris Herrmann, 24, has been streaky this year, and is currently at an even .260. Deibinson Romero, 25, has shown power, and is batting .250. Aaron Hicks, only 22, is hitting .244 and is currently sidelined with an ankle injury. Finally, Evan Bigley, 25, is hitting .234. In terms of legitimate prospects and batting production, I might order the top few AA players Herrmann, Hicks, Beresford and Romero -- based on what they have done this season.

I have omitted some players, but none that have impressive offensive stats or are young enough to be considered legitimate major league prospects. The bottom line is that, midway through the 2012 season, there isn't a AA or AAA player batting .300 (incidentally, the highest OPS at AA is Romero's .769; at AAA it is Carson's .825). This post isn't intended to be an indictment on the Twins' farm system as much as it is a quick evaluation of where our best hitters are. And the answer to that question appears to be the lower levels of the minors. Just today, Oswaldo Arcia was promoted to New Britain. Hopefully he can inject some life into the recently sputtering Rock Cats offense. I'm hoping his .309/.376/.517 line at Ft. Myers can carry over into central Connecticut.

Wednesday's Rock Cats Report

Quietly, and with many, many singles,
Rock Cats infielder James Beresford is leading
the team in batting average

Last night, the Rock Cats lost to the Akron Aeros 6-2. Starter B.J. Hermsen took a tough loss, giving up 3 runs (only 1 earned) in 5 innings, but he wasn't aided much by his defense, which committed 2 errors while he was on the mound. Hermsen is 3-2 on the season with an ERA of 2.96. Very solid. He has walked 5 and struck out 25 in his 7 starts (48 and 2/3 innings) as a Rock Cat. Deibinson Romero and Evan Bigley provided the offense, both hitting solo home runs for New Britain. For more, here's a great summary of the game by Nodak Twins Fan.

The Rock Cats lost another player to promotion to AAA Rochester. Starting pitcher Steve Hirschfeld was promoted earlier this week. He was 4-4 on the season with a 3.2 ERA. In 64 and 2/3 innings this season for New Britain, he gave up 73 hits, walked 16 and struck out 44, for a WHIP of 1.38. Good luck, Steve! As noted in the Hartford Courant this week, Hirschfeld is the 8th player promoted from New Britain this season. Aside from Wilkin Ramirez, Darin Mastroianni and Pedro Florimon, the bulk of the promoted players have been pitchers, including Lucas French, Deolis Guerra, Lester Oliveros and David Bromberg (I guess you can also count Jason Marquis, but that hardly worked out well for anyone). This, as I have mentioned before, is the tough part about minor league baseball: your best talent rarely stays for too long. In return, New Britain has received players such as Hermsen, Caleb Thielbar and Bruce Pugh, who all saw success at A-level Ft. Myers. Hopefully, they can continue their success in the Eastern League.

Although they have lost 3 consecutive games, as of this morning, the Rock Cats are in a tie for first place in their division. Both the Trenton Thunder (suddenly very hot) and New Britain are 32-24, good for a .571 winning percentage. The Rock Cats continue their series against the Aeros tonight. Incidentally, I heard that it was a 10-hour bus ride to Akron.

Finally, as I try to do every week or so, I'll take a look at a few prospects and highlight how they are doing on the season, and in recent days.

Aaron Hicks: .246/.341/.396, 8 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 28 RBIs, 15 stolen bases (caught 4 times).
In his last 10 games, Hicks is hitting .233/.333/.410 with a home run, 3 RBIs and 9 walks. I have been getting a few questions lately about Hicks and a promotion. As Seth Stohs noted recently, Hicks needs to be added to the 40 man roster after this season. In my opinion, though, Hicks is playing this season where he needs to play. Defensively, he's ready for the majors, but significant work needs to be done at the plate, including a determination of whether he will continue to switch hit. Twins fans, Aaron Hicks is 22 years old -- still a young prospect who the Twins took out of high school. There's no point in sending him to AAA when he's not even batting .250 in the Eastern League. I have confidence that he will materialize, but it might take a little more time than some want.

Chris Herrmann: .250/.313/.401, 14 2B, 5 HR, 19 RBIs.
In his last 10 games, Herrmann is struggling, batting .125/.300/.219 with a home run, 3 RBIs and 8 walks. If you happened to miss it, I recently interviewed Herrmann. Take a look. My opinion is that, like Hicks, Herrmann is where he needs to be right now. Hicks and Herrmann are not similar prospects, though. Hicks, as a 22 year old first round outfield prospect drafted out of high school, needs to be developed slowly and carefully, especially considering that the Twins have good outfield talent in their system. Herrmann, a 24 year old catcher with D-1 college experience, is already second on my depth chart for catchers in the entire organization. If Herrmann can get that average up to around .270, and demonstrate more plate discipline, I'd like to see him promoted this season. The interesting question is should he go to Rochester or Minnesota? Ordinarily, you think about a guy working his way through the minors and going up the ladder one step at a time. What about a catcher, though? If the expectation in Minnesota is that Herrmann will be Joe Mauer's back-up sooner rather than later, does it make more sense to send him directly to Minnesota this September to learn how to catch the different pitchers on the Twins roster? Or, is it better for his development to catch AAA-level pitchers (many of which he already caught in New Britain) and work on hitting at that level? It's an interesting question.

James Beresford: .273/.346/.302., 2 2B, 1 3B, 11 RBIs.
In his last 10 games, the Australian Beresford is hitting .294/.333/.353. Very quietly, Beresford is leading the Rock Cats in batting average, and although he generally flies under the radar, it's important to give mention when it is due. The problem with Beresford's stats, though, is that they are barren when it comes to power. Of his 38 hits this season, 2 were doubles and 1 was a triple. And for a middle infielder, he apparently is not very fast (or is not a good base-stealer), going 0-for-3 in stolen base attempts. But perhaps just as importantly, the defense has been solid: he has only 1 error in 202 chances between second base and shortstop. I don't realistically think of Beresford as the Twins second baseman of the future, but he's only 23 years old, and there is still time for development.  

Wednesday's Twins Minor League Report

Every Wednesday night, I write a column for the TwinsDaily website going over all of the minor league action from that day. If you're at all curious about the Twins minor league system, I highly recommend reading these daily reports -- you'll quickly get an understanding of what's going on in the system, who's hot, who's cold, and who's ready to be promoted. Last night's minor league games were especially interesting -- a couple high-scoring affairs, a couple good pitching performances, and some good outings from top Twins prospects. Here's what I wrote:
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Sweet Lord, the Twins swept a series. Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Francisco Liriano. Those were all big names going into 2012, and they all had good performances at some point in this series. Bottom line: the Twins won 3 games in a row. Yes, it was against another bad team, and yes, there are still major problems with the Twins. But, as fans, isn't it nice to see a few wins grouped together, rather than many, many losses? I posted this earlier at Twins Fan From Afar, but here's some food for thought: Justin Morneau is on pace for 29 home runs and 81 RBIs; Joe Mauer is on pace for 39 doubles, 107 walks and is currently a seeing-eye single away from batting .300; Josh Willingham is on pace for 113 RBIs and 32 home runs; and Denard Span is on pace for 45 doubles (which would come close to doubling his career high of 26 from 2010). Yes, there are many bad things happening in Minnesota, but there are some good things, as well.

Let's take a look at how the Twins' affiliates fared tonight.

ROCHESTER 11, CHARLOTTE 10

This was a crazy game! The Red Wings had a good offensive showing tonight, and despite the fact that the pitching simply didn't keep them in the game, the Red Wings managed to win. Rochester scored 4 in the 9th to tie, and 1 in the 10th to win.

Starter Liam Hendriks had a rough outing. He went 5 innings, allowing 6 runs on 7 hits, striking out 1 and walking 2. He allowed 2 home runs -- both 2-run shots. Out of the bullpen, reliever Deolis Guerra had a rare poor performance. In 1 inning of work, he allowed 3 runs on 3 walks. He didn't allow a hit and struck out 1. Lester Oliveros also allowed a run in 2/3 of an inning, giving up 2 hits and walking 1. Carlos Gutierrez tossed 2 scoreless innings, striking out 4 and giving up only 1 hit. He earned the win. Anthony "why isn't he in Minnesota" Slama closed the door and earned his 9th save, tossing a scoreless 10th.

There's a lot of offense to discuss. Rochester banged out 18 hits tonight. The big slugger tonight was the recently demoted Chris Parmelee. He was 3-for-4 with a 3-run home run, a walk, and 5 RBIs. Shortstop Pedro Florimon also had 3 hits and an RBI. Clete Thomas had 3 hits (2 doubles). Danny Valencia had 2 hits (1 double) and an RBI. Catcher J.R. Towles had 2 doubles, Matt Carson had 2 hits, including a double, and 2 RBIs. Sean Burroughs was 2-for-4, and Ray Chang had a single as a pinch hitter.

Here's the link for the box score.

NEW BRITAIN 7, NEW HAMPSHIRE 2

This was an evening about top Twins prospects. Let's start with pitching. Starter B.J. Hermsen had a great start: he was one out shy of a complete game! In 8 and 2/3 innings, he allowed 2 runs on 7 hits, striking out 4 and issuing zero walks. His ERA at AA is 2.68. His stock is rising, and it's tough not to be a little excited about that. Luis Perdomo struck out the final batter of the game.

On offense, almost every Rock Cats starter contributed. Top prospect Aaron Hicks connected for his 6th home run of the year, and catcher Chris Herrmann hit his 5th of the season. Both were solo shots. Danny Lehmann and Matt Rizzotti both had doubles, Rizzotti's driving in 2 runs, and James Berersford had 2 hits, including a triple, and 2 RBIs. Shortstop Estarlin De Los Santos had 2 singles, and Deibinson Romero had a single and an RBI.

Here's the link for the box score.

FT. MYERS 4, BRADENTON 3

Miguel Munoz had a solid start for the Miracle tonight, going 5 innings, and allowing 1 run on 5 hits and a walk. He struck out 3 along the way. Nelvin Fuentes gave up 2 runs in 2 and 1/3 innings, allowing 3 hits, striking out 3 and walking 1. Both runs came on a 2-run home run. Bruce Pugh earned his 5th save of the season, and he was great, going 1 and 2/3 innings and striking out 4. He allowed no hits.

Top prospect Oswaldo Arcia had another great game, going 4-for-4 with a home run, his 5th of the season. Daniel Santana was also excellent, going 3-for-4 with a double and a triple, and driving in 2 runs. Levi Michael and Angel Morales also had singles.

Here's the link for the box score.

BELOIT 3, QUAD CITIES 20

This was not a good night for the Snappers. Starter Tim Shibuya only made it 2/3 of an inning, and allowed 12 runs on 10 hits. He walked 1, struck out 2, and allowed a home run. Ryan O'Rourke was somewhat better, going 4 and 1/3 innings and allowing 2 runs on 3 hits. He struck out 3 and walked 1. Corey Williams allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in 1 inning of work, giving up 3 hits, striking out 3 and walking 1. Michael Tonkin tossed the 7th, allowing 1 run on 2 walks and 2 hits. A.J. Pettersen -- yes the infielder of TwinsDaily lore -- tossed a scoreless 8th inning, issuing 1 walk.

There wasn't much offense to speak of tonight. The Snappers amassed only 5 hits. Adam Bryant had a double, and Drew Leachman, Kyle Knudson, Eddie Rosario and A.J. Pettersen each had singles.

Here's the link to the box score.
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Players of the day for May 30, 2012
Hitter of the day: Chris Parmelee (close call with Arcia, but 5 RBIs gets the nod).



Pitcher of the Day: B.J. Hermsen (close call with A.J. Pettersen, but I'll give the nod to the actual pitcher).


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A Look Ahead: Schedule for Thursday, May 31

ROCHESTER @ CHARLOTTE -- LHP Matt Maloney
NEW BRITAIN @ NEW HAMPSHIRE -- LHP Andrew Albers
FT. MYERS @ BRADENTON --- LHP Cole Nelson
BELOIT @ QUAD CITIES --- LHP Steven M. Gruver

4 road games, 4 lefties, one of which uses his middle initial!

How Good Should Our Minor League Teams Be?

I've been thinking about this question lately. Baseball farm teams are, by nature, really interesting. General managers don't set the rosters, or even acquire the players. And I bet if the Rock Cats GM gets a call from Terry Ryan suggesting that he play the back-up shortstop because "something may be in the works," the back-up shortstop will get a lot of playing time, regardless of what that does to New Britain's chances. In the minor leagues, the best-performing players often don't last with the team very long, because they are bumped up to the next level. With the Twins' system, we've already seen that take place this year (Lucas French and Deolis Guerra to AAA, Caleb Thielbar and BJ Hermsen to AA to take their places), and we will see it dozens more times this season.

So, as fans, how good should we expect our farm teams to be? On the one hand, it's easy to look at things in the abstract and simply say, "for every player promoted, there should be an emerging player ready to take that vacated roster spot." But that's not baseball -- that's not life. Guerra, for instance, was putting up disgustingly good numbers for the Rock Cats; he was undoubtedly their best reliever -- their Glen Perkins. It would be great if Caleb Thielbar could instantly achieve the success that Guerra had in the last part of 2011 and 2012, but that's anything but a given. Similarly, French was arguably the Rock Cats' best starter this season -- their (fill in the blank if the Twins had a good starter). Good starting pitching is tough to replace, and although it seems that BJ Hermsen is ready for the next level, it's doubtful that he will replicate French's stats (French's success at AA should be partially attributed to the fact that he has MLB and AAA experience). I think a better approach, rather than expecting seamless roster transitions, is to expect competitiveness. Some years drafts are going to be pitcher-heavy. Right now, the Twins have a surplus of outfield talent at the MLB level and down on the farm. Over the course of time, it's the responsibility of the front office to have depth at all positions and all levels, but it's difficult to imagine -- on any one day -- having perfect Low-A, High-A, AA, AAA and MLB depth in any one organization.

In 2011, Baseball America rated the Kansas City Royals as having baseball's best organizational ranking. The Omaha Storm Chasers, the Royals AAA affiliate, had a 79-63 record last season and won the Pacific Coast League championship. The Northwest Arkansas Naturals, the Royals' AA affiliate, finished 73-64, and won their division championship. The High-A team, the Wilmington Blue Rocks, failed to make the playoffs, going 66-72, good for 6th out of 8 teams in their division. Finally, the Low-A team, the Kane County Cougars, went 65-74, and also failed to make the playoffs. The Royals' farm system is just one team, and just one example, of course. It's interesting, though. Their AA and AAA teams were very good last season, despite the fact that the Royals have several young players, like Eric Hosmer, that have been called up recently. It's notable, though, that their lower level teams were both sub-.500 last season, despite the fact that Kansas City almost always has a very high draft position.

So what does this mean for our Twins and their farm teams? I think it's just something to keep an eye on. New Britain, the team I'm following, is 15-9, off to a good start. After going 44-98 in 2010, they finished 72-70 last year, and are on an even better pace now. The Rochester Red Wings are 9-14, still a better pace than they had last year. The Beloit Snappers are 14-11, and the Ft. Myers Miracle are 9-15. Some good so far, and some not so good.

The other notable thing about fielding competitive teams throughout the system is that players get used to playing winning baseball. I'm sure you remember the stories from last season about certain young Twins players (Drew Butera, Danny Valencia, Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes were all named at various times) that didn't particularly care whether the Twins were winning or losing; rather, they seemed preoccupied with being big league ballplayers. Many of those guys played on awful Rochester and New Britain teams. If you have no expectation of winning each and every game at the minor league level, and your behavior is modified accordingly over the course of several hundred games and thousands of at-bats, why would that automatically change once you get "the call?"

I imagine it's difficult for the Twins -- or any organization -- to successfully achieve balance at all levels of the system. That's why the Twins are now having career minor leaguers come in and play at Rochester -- simply to field a competitive team. Hopefully, with several early picks in the 2012 draft, the Twins can shoot up the farm team rankings, and we will, in 3-5 years, see another wave of solid MLB prospects ready to play at Target Field.