AA and AAA: Where is the Offense??



The look of a displaced man who will
never again see Target Field



For purposes of this post, I need to start of with 2 limitations: First, I'm thinking about players in the upper levels of the minor leagues that have yet to "make it" with the Twins in any real sense of that phrase. I'll exclude from this discussion Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee and Darin Mastroianni, because they are all playing for the Twins right now, and Sean Burroughs, because he is too old to be a legitimate prospect. Second, for simplicity, I'm just going to look at batting average. I have linked to each player's stats, so you can explore in greater depth their production this season. Although I recognize that things like on-base percentage and OPS are also great measurements -- perhaps even better indicators of batting prowess -- I'm just focusing today on these position players' ability to hit for average. With those caveats . . . where is the offense in the upper levels of the Twins minor league system?

Let's start in Rochester. Right now, the Red Wings' highest batting average comes from Matt Carson, who is going to turn 31 in less than a month and is batting .296. It's a pretty steep drop after that. Ray Chang (turning 29 in August) and Pedro Florimon (25 years old) are batting .248. Wilkin Ramirez, 26 and with major league experience, is hitting .242. And possibly the worst stats come from two players Twins fans wish they could be counting on in 2012: Danny Valencia is hitting .238, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka is batting .223. Finally, remember Brian Dinkelman? Hitting .186. Based on the player age and level of experience, it might be a safe bet to call Pedro Florimon our best hitting "prospect" at AAA right now.

The circumstances in New Britain are better, but not by leaps and bounds. James Beresford, 23 years old and teetering around .300 last week, is hitting a respectable and solid .286. Nathan Hanson, 25, is hitting .279. Both players have been very hot the past couple weeks, raising their averages by 20 points or so. Catcher Chris Herrmann, 24, has been streaky this year, and is currently at an even .260. Deibinson Romero, 25, has shown power, and is batting .250. Aaron Hicks, only 22, is hitting .244 and is currently sidelined with an ankle injury. Finally, Evan Bigley, 25, is hitting .234. In terms of legitimate prospects and batting production, I might order the top few AA players Herrmann, Hicks, Beresford and Romero -- based on what they have done this season.

I have omitted some players, but none that have impressive offensive stats or are young enough to be considered legitimate major league prospects. The bottom line is that, midway through the 2012 season, there isn't a AA or AAA player batting .300 (incidentally, the highest OPS at AA is Romero's .769; at AAA it is Carson's .825). This post isn't intended to be an indictment on the Twins' farm system as much as it is a quick evaluation of where our best hitters are. And the answer to that question appears to be the lower levels of the minors. Just today, Oswaldo Arcia was promoted to New Britain. Hopefully he can inject some life into the recently sputtering Rock Cats offense. I'm hoping his .309/.376/.517 line at Ft. Myers can carry over into central Connecticut.

Twins No-Hit by Weaver; Rock Cats Keep Winning

It was a late night, and an awful night, to be a Twins fan. I'm curious at the end of the season -- with the benefit of hindsight -- if Jered Weaver's no-hitter against the Twins will be viewed as just another bad memory from a bad season, or whether it's going to be remembered the symbolic indictment on the state of affairs of the Twins' pitching, hitting, front office and field management.

Instead of dwelling on that, I'll give you a Rock Cats update. They won last night, as they have done often this season, and are now 17-9. I wrote Wednesday's Minor League Daily report for TwinsDaily (check it out here), and here's what I mentioned about New Britain's performance:

"NEW BRITAIN 5, HARRISBURG 4

New Britain has been involved in many close contests lately. Tonight, they eeked out a victory against the Harrisburg Senators. Chris Colabello, an 8-year independent league baseball player until 2012 (primarily with the Worcester, MA Tornadoes), had a great night offensively. He went 2-for-5 for New Britain, with his 5th home run of the year, a 3 run shot in the third inning with two outs. Wilkin Ramirez and Pedro Florimon each had two hits, including a double, Estarlin De Los Santos picked up 2 singles, Evan Bigley had a run-scoring single and a walk, and Nathan Hanson had a sacrifice fly. Definitely a team effort on offense. De Los Santos stole his 5th base of the season. Aaron Hicks was 0-for-3 with a walk, was caught stealing, and is batting .268 on the year.

Andrew Albers got the start for New Britain tonight. The bad: he gave up 3 home runs and 4 runs on 7 hits. The good: he lasted 6 innings, issued 0 walks, and struck out 5. The bullpen was better, though. Bobby Lanigan pitched 2 and 1/3 innings, gave up 0 runs, allowing 3 hits and striking out 1. Luis Perdomo picked up the win tonight (2-2), tossing 1 and 2/3 innings, allowing 1 hit and striking out 1."

If you're ready to officially jump off the Twins' bandwagon this season, or are just sick of them, I can't blame you. I'll always be a fan -- win or lose -- but I'm certainly paying less attention to the Twins than I was a few weeks ago. I wholeheartedly recommend throwing your support behind the Rock Cats. Thus far, they have the best record of any of the Twins affiliates, and have already had 2 players (Lucas French and Deolis Guerra) bumped up to AAA. Get to know the names and faces now -- you'll probably be seeing several of these guys in Minnesota -- both out of necessity and on their own merit -- in the next year or so.

Monday's New Britain News



Newly promoted B.J. Hermsen will take the
mound tonight in his AA debut


The landscape for the New Britain Rock Cats is already starting to change only 23 games into the season. A couple days ago, reliever Deolis Guerra was promoted to AAA Rochester. Congratulations to him! He's now just one step away from joining the Twins. If he can do in Rochester what he did in late-inning situations for the Rock Cats, it won't be too long before we see Guerra making his Target Field debut. Also, Rock Cats starting pitcher Alex Wimmers is now rehabbing his elbow strain in Ft. Myers, so it sounds like it will be some time before he rejoins the team. Although Guerra was yanked from the Rock Cats, Ft. Myers Miracle pitchers BJ Hermsen (1-0 with a 0.78 ERA in 23 innings) and Caleb Thielbar (1-1 with 0 earned runs allowed in 12 and 1/3 innings, with 16 strikeouts and 2 walks) were promoted to New Britain. Good luck to them, especially Hermsen who will start tonight's game.

Over the weekend, the Rock Cats dropped 2 of 3 games against the Richmond Flying Squirrels, and are 14-9 on the season, 1.5 games back of the Reading Phillies. Yesterday, they won. As I wrote in TwinsDaily's Sundy Minor League Daily, Starter Logan Darnell picked up the win (3-0). He pitched 6 and 2/3 innings, gave up 7 hits and 2 runs, and struck out 8 while walking 1 along the way. His ERA stands at 4.56. He has been the recipient of some solid Rock Cats offense when he has pitched this season. Reliever Daniel Turpen pitched the rest of the game, 2 and 1/3 innings, and earned the save, his second of the season. He was very effective, giving up no hits and no walks, while striking out 2. This effort improved his ERA to 4.5.

On offense, the team had 9 hits. Every starter except for Estarlin De Los Santos and Evan Bigley tallied at least one hit. Chris Herrmann was 2-for-3 with a walk, and also reached base on an error in his other plate appearance. He scored 3 runs. Nathan Hanson also had a good game, going 2-for-4 with a double and accumulating 2 RBIs. Aaron Hicks was 1-for-4 with a single and a stolen base (his 3rd of the season), and is batting .265 on the season. Deibinson Romero hit a triple, and shortstop Pedro Florimon had a double.

On Saturday, New Britain lost 5-3 to the Squirrels. Start Steve Hirschfeld (6 innings, 10 hits, 3 earned runs, 5 strikeouts and 2 walks) picked up the loss, and the offense couldn't muster too much, only accumulating 7 hits all day. Brett Jacobson pitched 2 scoreless innings out of the bullpen. Notables on offense included Evan Bigley, with a double and 2 RBIs, Chris Herrmann with an RBI single, and Pedro Florimon, Aaron Hicks, Nathan Hanson, James Beresford and Danny Lehmann with singles. Bigley also stole 2 bases, giving him 3 on the season.

For a quick recap of Friday night's game, a 13-inning 5-4 loss (though Andrew Albers had a quality start), check out this earlier post from Saturday. So, after starting out hot, New Britain has cooled a little. Their record, 14-9, is still good, but they are 4-6 over their last 10. Tonight, they begin a 4-game series against the Harrisburg Senators, the AA affiliate of the Washington Nationals, who coincidentally are also 14-9.

Rock Cats Lose, Streak Halted at 6, and Where is Wimmers??

The New Britain Rock Cats lost a close game this afternoon, 2-1, to the Portland Sea Dogs. This was a pitcher's duel, to be sure. Starter Steve Hirschfeld pitched 7 strong innings for the Rock Cats, striking out 7 and walking none, to lower his ERA to 1.06. He surrendered just three hits. Blake Martin struck out 2 in a scoreless 8th. Luis Perdomo blew the save after allowing two walks and a double in the 9th, and then lost the game when, after intentionally walking the next batter, he gave up a walk-off single.

Offensively, the Rock Cats tallied only 3 hits all afternoon. Mark Dolenc, Aaron Hicks and Pedro Florimon constituted all the offense today, and the only run of the game came on a wild pitch in the first inning.

One interesting thing: It's been several days since Alex Wimmers pitched for New Britain. His last -- and only -- start was on April 9th. He pitched just under 5 innings, and was solid. He didn't appear to leave the game with any injury. But there have been 9 games since then. Here is who started for New Britain since Wimmers' last appearance:

Luke French
Andrew Albers
Jason Marquis
Steve Hirschfeld
Logan Darnell
Luke French
Andrew Albers
David Bromberg
Steve Hirschfeld

I was already beginning to get concerned, and then this very topic came up on the TwinsDaily discussion board, so I thought it would be worthwhile to at least mention that Wimmers has been absent from 9 games now. Was this related to Marquis getting work in with the Rock Cats? Who knows. I'll update if I find anything out when I go to tomorrow's game.

[Update: That was quick. Thanks to Seth Stohs at TwinsDaily, we now know that Wimmers has a sore back and a slight flexor strain, and will miss at least a couple starts. Thanks, Seth!]

I'm Glad the Twins Aren't Paying for an Ace Right Now, and a Rock Cats Report

With no Scott Baker in the fold, and with an
ineffective Francisco Liriano, the future of the Twins'
rotation is dubious, at best

You all know the story by now: Last night was not a good night to be a Twins fan. A completely ineffective Francisco Liriano ruined what could have been some nice momentum in a tough, 4 game series against the Yankees, and we received news that Tommy John surgery was performed on Scott Baker, instead of a simpler procedure to "clean up" his right elbow. Liriano's awful performance (after a stellar spring), and Baker's 12 month (minimum) recovery period have likely caused a sea change in the way that the front office is viewing the starting rotation, for 2012 and beyond.

In my head, I had always penciled in one of Baker or Liriano as possibilities for 2013, thinking that it would be possible -- maybe even smart -- for the Twins to try to extend one of these veteran starters. Now, Baker's 2013 option will certainly be declined, as he is shelved for at least a year, and who knows what to do with Liriano? Sure, he could come back in his next start and fire a no-hitter, but that doesn't seem at all possible right now. Handed a 3-1 lead in Yankee Stadium, against CC Sabathia no less, Liriano couldn't even get out of the third inning. He threw more balls than strikes (I acknowledge, though, that the strike zone last night was bad), and Yankees hitters took advantage of pitches left out over the plate. This is not the kind of guy you build your rotation around. This is the kind of guy that winds up in the bullpen, which is where I expect Liriano will be by June if he doesn't straighten out. Worst of all, for a team that right now doesn't appear to be contending for anything other than the worst record in baseball, he's not even accumulating value for the Twins to trade him.

All of this brings me to my main point this morning. I, along with most of Twins Territory, wished during the past few off-seasons that the Twins would acquire an upper echelon pitcher. It hasn't happened, of course. Carl Pavano and Jason Marquis hardly qualify. But think -- just for a second -- if they had. What if, for example, we had gotten a guly like Cliff Lee, or Roy Halladay, or even Zack Greinke? What a colossal waste of money it would be for 2012, and probably 2013. We would be paying basically $1 million per win for this pitcher. In other words, $20 million for 20 or so wins. Yes, it'd be great to have a 20 game winner on staff, but not if that pitcher is literally your only consistent weapon. This team -- without Baker and with an ineffective Liriano -- still wouldn't be much better. Certainly it would win 10 or so more games over the course of the season, but probably not nearly enough to win the division. For right now, at least, it would seem like misallocated money. It's great to have a dominant pitcher -- the kind of guy that you know stands a very good chance of winning every 5th day and throwing 7, 8 or 9 innings -- but it's not so great if there are no #2 or #3 starters to round out the stable. I had always envisioned this ace alongside a couple other good, younger pitchers, leading the staff and perhaps even helping the others become better pitchers. For right now, anyway, it would seem like a waste of money.

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Amid all the bad news about the Twins, there is good news out of Twins Territory to report: The New Britain Rock Cats won their 6th straight game last night. Chris Colabello was the big star last night. He hit 2 home runs and had 3 RBIs to lead the way to a 6-3 victory over the Portland Sea Dogs. Colabello, 28, is one of those great baseball stories. He spent 2005-2011 playing in the Canadian-American League, which is an independent baseball league. He spent all but one of those seasons with the Worcester (Massachusetts) Tornadoes, and 2012 is his first year playing in the minor leagues. At 28, he's too old to be a top prospect, but you really, really have to respect the guy for going out there and trying to make a career as a professional ballplayer. I hope he does more than "provide minor league depth," or whatever scouts or front office people might tell you. Deibinson Romero, Pedro Florimon, Nathan Hanson, Evan Bigley, Chris Herrmann and Estarlin De Los Santos also picked up hits for New Britain. David Bromberg and Bobby Lanigan each pitched 3 innings for the Rock Cats, with Lanigan picking up the win after allowing no runs. Delois Guerra got the hold, pitching very well in the 7th and 8th innings, allowing no hits and striking out 2. Lester Oliveros pitched the 9th and, although he got into some trouble, allowing 2 earned runs on 2 hits and a walk, was able to make it through the inning. The Rock Cats are now 10-3, and play this afternoon to wrap up what has been a very successful road trip.

Rock Cats' Winning Streak Pushed to 5

The New Britain Rock Cats defeated the Portland Sea Dogs tonight 10-5. Despite the lopsided score, this game actually took 11 innings to produce a winner. The sides were knotted at 5 runs until the Rock Cats exploded for 5 runs in the 11th inning, and then shut down the Sea Dogs in the home half to secure the victory.

For all the runs tonight, New Britain only accumulated 9 hits (they also walked 5 times). Big producers tonight included shortstop Pedro Florimon, who hit his first home run of the year, and drove in 2 runs. Chris Colabello had the most important hit of the night: a 3 run game-tying home run (his second of the season) in the top of the ninth inning with two outs. On the evening, Colabello also had a double and a 4th RBI. Quite a night for the first baseman! Right fielder Evan Bigley had 3 singles and a walk tonight, in 4 at-bats, and also scored 2 runs, pushing his batting average to .311. Deibinson Romero, Estarlin De Los Santos and James Beresford also had hits for the Rock Cats. New Britain sent 10 men to the plate in the decisive 11th inning.

Lefty Andrew Albers got the start for New Britain, lasting 5 innings, and giving up 8 hits, 4 earned runs, and striking out 4 while issuing no free passes. The bullpen, however, was better. Although reliever Brett Jacobson gave up a run in one inning of work, Blake Martin pitched a scoreless 7th, and Luis Perdomo and Daniel Turpen each pitched 2 scoreless innings, with Turpen picking up the win in extras. Aaron Hicks was hitless tonight, but did have an outfield assist, nailing a Sea Dogs runner at third base. Martin (on a pickoff) and Florimon each committed their first errors of the season.

This is now the 5th consecutive win for the Rock Cats, pushing their impressive record to 9-3. They are also undefeated on the road, which is good for any team looking to gain confidence early in the season. They'll be back in action tomorrow night -- same time, same channel.

New Britain's Winning Streak Continues

I think 4 games in a row constitutes a winning streak. If that's not the case, well too bad! The final score today was 3-0 New Britain, and the Rock Cats, in the midst of their first road trip, are now 8-3. The Sunday Rock Cats-Fisher Cats matinee at New Hampshire was essentially a pitcher's duel for much of the game. New Britain starter Lucas French tossed 7 scoreless innings (92 pitches) for the Rock Cats, allowing only 2 hits, and walking 3 and notching 3 strikeouts along the way. He improved to 2-0 on the young season, and his ERA stands at a tidy 0.96.

New Britain's offense came from an Evan Bigley RBI single (he had two hits on the day), a Chris Herrmann solo home run (his first of the season), and a Nathan Hanson sacrifice fly. Herrmann, especially, is in the middle of an important season -- I'm viewing him as Joe Mauer's potential back-up catcher for 2013. Also notching hits for the Rock Cats were Mark Dolenc, Chris Colabello, Deibinson Romero (who committed the only error for New Britain), and Pedro Florimon, who had 2 hits. Aaron Hicks was hitless, batting as a lefty, but his batting average is still a solid .297.

The other good story today was the Rock Cats bullpen. After almost giving the game back yesterday, it was much better today. Deolis Guerra pitched a scoreless 8th inning to get the hold, and Lester Oliveros struck out one in the 9th to get the save. New Britain's pitching staff only gave up 3 hits all day, striking out 4 and walking 3. The road trip continues tomorrow, as they travel to Portland, Maine to face the Red Sox AA affiliate, the Sea Dogs.

Aaron Hicks and the Rock Cats, Twins Baseball and the Future, & the SethSpeaks Weekly Twins Podcast

Thus far, good things are coming out of New Britain

A few unrelated items this morning. First, if you missed it, yesterday I wrote about Alex Wimmers' first AA Rock Cats start that took place Monday night, and Aaron Hicks' monster game that helped give the Rock Cats a big victory. This morning, the good news coming out of New Britain, despite a 7-2 loss to the Harrisburg Senators last night, was that top prospect Aaron Hicks was 2-for-4 with another home run. That's two home runs in two days, and the latest came batting lefty, which is the weaker side for Hicks. A batting average that was a laughable .077 just a couple days ago is now .250, and Hicks is 4 for his last 8, with 5 RBIs in just two games. Clearly, when he's "on," his bat can lead a team. We're all looking for consistency from Hicks, so hopefully these past couple games are a sign of things to come. Whether the Twins decide to keep him as part of the projected 2014-2015 "new look outfield" that's easy to imagine being fantastic (with Joe Benson, too), or whether the organization eventually tries to package him in a trade for some kind of power starting pitching, it's an incredibly important season for Hicks in terms of development and career trajectory. The final Rock Cats note for this morning concerns middle infield depth. Pedro Florimon is off to a fast start for New Britain, with a .400/.429/.450 slash line in his first 20 at-bats, and has looked solid in the field from what I have seen. I don't expect too much from him in terms of what he could do for the Twins, but it's nice to see him start off hot. The Rock Cats play at 10:35 eastern time this morning. Talk about an early start! If anything newsworthy happens, I'll post this afternoon.

Second, how about those Minnesota Twins? I've barely been discussing them lately. Between the pathetic offense (except Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham) and the fact that Scott Baker is already out indefinitely, I feel like we're in for a long season. Yes, I know that 4 games is nothing, and tonight the Twins could easily start a 4-game winning streak. That's just how baseball works. But the pitching has me worried for the long-term, and that hasn't even been the weak point for this team thus far.

A lot of fans are concerned with the depth of the Twins' minor league system, and rightfully so. Here's a question for you: What if the Twins stink again this season? I don't mean winning 78 or 80 games, but more like winning 65 or 68. What if they can secure a top 3 pick in the 2013 draft? Between this year's #2 overall pick and a top selection next season, the Twins could have a rare opportunity to add top-shelf draft talent, which would complement some of the exciting players, like Miguel Sano, that are coming up through the organization.

In other words, if you agree with me that this is not a playoff team in 2012, even with a healthy Scott Baker and Joe Mauer, would you rather watch an 81-81 season, or would you prefer to see a bad season in which the team unloaded some players before they hit free agency, and was able to secure a top pick next year? It's an interesting discussion, anyway.

Finally, I was thrilled to be a guest on Seth Stohs' SethSpeaks Weekly Twins Podcast. I talked Rock Cats baseball for 10 minutes or so, and was happy for the opportunity to do so. Seth had me on right after Brian Dozier finished up. A tough act to follow! Dozier sounds like a great guy, and I believe he's ready to take over at shortstop right about now. If you didn't listen to the podcast live, you can listen any time by clicking here.