AA and AAA: Where is the Offense??



The look of a displaced man who will
never again see Target Field



For purposes of this post, I need to start of with 2 limitations: First, I'm thinking about players in the upper levels of the minor leagues that have yet to "make it" with the Twins in any real sense of that phrase. I'll exclude from this discussion Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee and Darin Mastroianni, because they are all playing for the Twins right now, and Sean Burroughs, because he is too old to be a legitimate prospect. Second, for simplicity, I'm just going to look at batting average. I have linked to each player's stats, so you can explore in greater depth their production this season. Although I recognize that things like on-base percentage and OPS are also great measurements -- perhaps even better indicators of batting prowess -- I'm just focusing today on these position players' ability to hit for average. With those caveats . . . where is the offense in the upper levels of the Twins minor league system?

Let's start in Rochester. Right now, the Red Wings' highest batting average comes from Matt Carson, who is going to turn 31 in less than a month and is batting .296. It's a pretty steep drop after that. Ray Chang (turning 29 in August) and Pedro Florimon (25 years old) are batting .248. Wilkin Ramirez, 26 and with major league experience, is hitting .242. And possibly the worst stats come from two players Twins fans wish they could be counting on in 2012: Danny Valencia is hitting .238, and Tsuyoshi Nishioka is batting .223. Finally, remember Brian Dinkelman? Hitting .186. Based on the player age and level of experience, it might be a safe bet to call Pedro Florimon our best hitting "prospect" at AAA right now.

The circumstances in New Britain are better, but not by leaps and bounds. James Beresford, 23 years old and teetering around .300 last week, is hitting a respectable and solid .286. Nathan Hanson, 25, is hitting .279. Both players have been very hot the past couple weeks, raising their averages by 20 points or so. Catcher Chris Herrmann, 24, has been streaky this year, and is currently at an even .260. Deibinson Romero, 25, has shown power, and is batting .250. Aaron Hicks, only 22, is hitting .244 and is currently sidelined with an ankle injury. Finally, Evan Bigley, 25, is hitting .234. In terms of legitimate prospects and batting production, I might order the top few AA players Herrmann, Hicks, Beresford and Romero -- based on what they have done this season.

I have omitted some players, but none that have impressive offensive stats or are young enough to be considered legitimate major league prospects. The bottom line is that, midway through the 2012 season, there isn't a AA or AAA player batting .300 (incidentally, the highest OPS at AA is Romero's .769; at AAA it is Carson's .825). This post isn't intended to be an indictment on the Twins' farm system as much as it is a quick evaluation of where our best hitters are. And the answer to that question appears to be the lower levels of the minors. Just today, Oswaldo Arcia was promoted to New Britain. Hopefully he can inject some life into the recently sputtering Rock Cats offense. I'm hoping his .309/.376/.517 line at Ft. Myers can carry over into central Connecticut.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka: Failure in 2011, Hope for 2012?

I have to admit, I was excited when the Twins won the rights to negotiate with Tsuyoshi Nishioka, and, shortly thereafter, when they signed him to a 3 year, $9 million deal. It seemed like a decent price to pay for a Japanese player who, although not guaranteed to be a "star" in MLB, would likely be a good, starting infielder for the Twins. Back in March, I posted what I thought would be good first-year numbers for Nishioka: .270 batting average, .340 on base percentage, 25 stolen bases, 35 extra base hits. I envisioned him running wild at Target Field by hitting the ball hard to the gaps and down the lines.

Even taking into account the 2 months Nishioka missed as a result of the broken leg, and the fact that he was a rookie who would have to "learn the league," boy, was I wrong! As it stands today, Nishioka is batting .208 with a .259 on base percentage, has 4 extra base hits (all doubles), and is 2-for5 in stolen base attempts. As we all know, Nishioka's defense hasn't made up for his lack of offense. He has 8 errors in 132 attempts; his fielding percentage at shortstop is .967, while it is .923 at second base (where he no longer plays). If you watch Twins games regularly, though, you can probably remember another 10 or 20 plays during the season where a hitter was given credit for a hit on what should have been an error, or, more commonly, where Nishioka was out of position and it cost the Twins an out, thus prolonging the inning and further wearing down our pitching staff. Now, to be fair, every defensive player occasionally gets the benefit of errors credited as hits, and all fielders are caught playing out of position during the course of the long season, but, as with everything, it seems compounded in Nishioka's case. From the Twins' standpoint, things probably couldn't look much worse for Nishioka. In all seriousness, Toby Gardenhire's 2011 AAA offensive line of .262/.294/.333 looks pretty good right now. Maybe I'm being too critical, especially considering that Nishioka is still seeing teams, pitchers and ballparks for the first time as a result of his broken leg, but I guess I did expect more from the former Pacific League All-Star, batting champion and Gold Glove winner.

Where do the Twins go from here with Nishioka? They're into him for 2 more seasons and $6 million; I doubt any team would be foolish enough to want that contract on their books. The Twins, then, are in a position where they have to work with what they've got. They can't simply give up on Nishioka. To be sure, there have been some fantastic defensive plays, and a couple clutch hits this season, including a well-struck bases loaded double against Tampa Bay last month.

I would immediately send Nishioka to AAA for the rest of the season, not as a punishment, but for instruction and extended time to transition into MLB style baseball. There are times still where Nishioka seems confused by the strike zone, and his batting style of leaving the box as he hits the ball simply doesn't work for most players not named Ichiro. Nishioka clearly needs assistance and coaching, all of which could be provided to him, out of the spotlight, in Rochester. I'm sure Nishioka, as an accomplished athlete, wants nothing more than to succeed and help his team, and he simply is not doing that any better than could a career minor league player. But, he is relatively young, he is coachable, and he is a talented athlete. If the front office has any guts, this should be one of the first personnel moves as the team starts looking toward 2012.

Nishioka: What Constitutes a Good Result

I was pleasantly surprised to read that our new second baseman was 2-for-3 the other day, and both hits were interesting: a hit-and-run single to the hole between first and second, and a well-struck triple to right-center. Through 17 spring training at-bats, Nishioka has 5 hits, the triple being the lone extra base hit, and 3 RBIs. His defense also has reportedly been above average.

Most Twins fans, of course, would be thrilled if Nishioka could replicate such numbers through the regular season. That, however, is a lot to expect from a rookie, notwithstanding the fact that he excelled in Japan. I was on an airplane this morning thinking what we reasonably should expect from Nishioka in order for the Twins' deal to have made sense. In writing this, I am aware that this is the first year of his contract, and I expect that he will improve as he logs more time in MLB. Assuming Nishioka stays healthy through the 162 game season, here is what I would be content with in 2011: .270 batting average, .340 on base percentage, 25 stolen bases, and a total of 35 extra base hits. I would basically like to see Orlando Hudson-esque numbers, with better speed. And we would be getting that at about half the price.

Nishioka will be viewed as a success offensively if he gets on base in front of Mauer and Morneau. And, because pitchers will want to get him out so that they don't have to face two of the league's best hitters, Nishioka will see a lot of fastballs. If he can prove early on that he can hit a MLB fastball, it could be an interesting season. With Nishioka in a groove, the 2-5 portion of the Twins' offense could be lethal.

What do you think? What's a fair expectation for Nishioka's rookie season with the Twins?