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| Much like the ominous sky pictured here at Target Field, what the future holds for Joe Mauer in 2012 is also unclear. |
According to fangraphs, in 2009, when the Twins paid Joe Mauer $12.5 million, he provided $35.4 million in value. In 2011, when the Twins paid Mauer $23 million, he provided $7.9 million in value. Clearly, both the Twins, and I'm sure Mauer, want to see stats more similar to the 2009 numbers than the 2011 numbers. I think now, though, we mostly have come to terms with the likelihood that Mauer will never again replicate his historic 2009 season.
It's tough to imagine Mauer hitting almost 30 home runs while playing half his games at Target Field. Though I think he could very well bat in the .340s, or even.350 again, .365/.444/.587 seems like a stretch. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that Mauer's best days are behind him and that he's a washed-up athlete--but I do think that 2009 will stand out for decades as the best season ever for a catcher.
So what should fans be happy with in 2012? A select few wouldn't even be content if Mauer batted .400, or broke the home run record, or did both in the same season. They would cite his $23 million salary and its effect on a team with a $100 million payroll, and rest on that alone. While it's clear that Mauer's contract has long-lasting financial implications for the Twins, citing the contract alone and expecting 8 MVP seasons from Mauer is an untenable viewpoint that ignores the concept of paying a player a "market rate" contract, so I'm just going to disregard it. Even if Mauer's contract goes down as a bust, I'd take one bad market rate contract over what had been the Twins' historical trend -- losing every single Twins player to free agency.
I think we can isolate a few things that should give Mauer a lot of value this year. The first, of course, is health. If he can catch over 100 games, and DH/1B/RF for another 35-40, that's a good sign. In fact, if he plays 140 games, there's a pretty good chance he stayed healthy (enough) the entire year. And when Mauer's healthy, he rarely has major batting slumps. The second, as I just alluded to, is that Mauer is catching. I'm not one who believes that all of his value is tied up in catching: I think fans need to realize that Mauer catching 100 games and being half-injured all season isn't really a great "value" to the Twins, and probably on paper doesn't provides less benefit than if they just threw him in right field for the whole season, and let him be simply average there and hit for little power. But still, his best position is catcher, and that's his bread and butter for now--at least from the standpoint of racking up value and Wins Above Replacement. The third thing is also related to defense. I'd love to see Mauer throw out a higher percentage of base-stealers. In 2005, he threw out 43%; in 2007, 53%. The last three seasons, however, have been 26%, 26% and 30%. Imagine, over the course of a season, the impact that an increase in Mauer's caught-stealing percentage could have on team defense as a whole. His fielding percentage at catcher last year, .987, was also the lowest of his career. Knowing what we know now, it's obvious that he was rarely healthy at any point in 2011. So I'm going to give him a pass on his defense for last year, but hope that he returns to form this season.
Funny enough, if Mauer is healthy enough to stay at catcher all season, I am completely confident that his batting will be fine. Sure, the home run total probably won't be high, but that doesn't mean the guy can't hit a bunch of doubles. He hit 43 doubles in 2010, along with 9 HR. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mauer hit 50 doubles in 2012 if he can stay in the lineup.
Here's my ideal projection for Joe Mauer in 2012 -- how I think he could "earn" his salary, if you will, while still recognizing that, for whatever reason, he's never going to be the home run hitter he was in 2009: Play a minimum of 140 total games, at least 115 at catcher; throw out at least 35% of base stealers; bat .335 with 50 doubles, and hit over 10 HR; reach base at a clip of over .400. I expect that the RBIs, really a team statistic, will come, as well, if Ben Revere in the 9-hole, Denard Span, and Jamey Carroll, can be good on-base guys.
Sure, those likely aren't MVP numbers, but it's a pretty good formula for success. And last time I checked, there's a short list of catchers that can bat over .300. Projections always are humorous if you look at them after the season has taken place, so we'll see what actually happens in 2012. But if the Twins want to have any chance of even playing above .500, this is where it all starts. What do you think? What does Mauer have to do to earn his salary on the field this season?
