How Are "True Aces" Acquired?

Seth Stohs over at Sethspeaks.net had a great column yesterday discussing "ace" pitchers and the Twins' perceived lack thereof. As always, the analysis was great, and the reader comments were interesting. In that piece, Seth listed 12 pitchers that he believed arguably qualified as "true aces," and here's that list: Justin Verlander; Clayton Kershaw; Tim Lincecum; CC Sabathia; Felix Hernandez; Cliff Lee; Roy Halladay; Jered Weaver; Dan Haren; Yovani Gallardo; Matt Cain; Chris Carpenter. Regardless of whether you agree with the assessment of these particular pitchers as aces, I think most would agree that this constitutes a solid list of most of the dominant pitchers in baseball right now. I'd personally be happy with any of them popping up in the Twins' starting rotation.

I'm going to piggyback off of Seth's post because it was interesting to me to think specifically about how these true aces were acquired by their present team, and where they were drafted. So I want to take a quick look individually at these pitchers to see if there are any trends, and to see what acquiring teams have given up in order to get a true ace. I didn't include the contract values -- Seth has them over in his piece (but here's a spoiler alert -- ace pitchers are pretty expensive!!).

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers: 2nd overall pick of 2004 amateur draft; was drafted by the Tigers and is under contract with Tigers through 2015.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers: 7th overall pick of 2006 amateur draft; was drafted by the Dodgers, and will become a free agent in 2015.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants: 10th overall pick of 2006 amateur draft; was drafted by the Giants, and will become a free agent in 2014.

CC Sabathia, New York Yankees: 20th overall pick of 1998 amateur draft; was drafted by the Cleveland Indians and played with them until July, 2008, when he was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers (along with Michael Brantley) for Rob Bryson (has yet to play in the major leagues), Zach Jackson and Matt LaPorta. For the record, LaPorta was the 7th pick overall in the 2007 draft; Jackson was the 32nd overall pick in the 2004 draft; Brantley was the 205th overall pick in the 2005 draft; Bryson was the 932nd pick (31st round) in the 2006 draft. Sabathia became a free agent after the 2008 season, and is signed through 2016 with the Yankees with a vesting option for 2017.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners: Signed as an amateur free agent in 2002 by the Mariners, and is set to become a free agent in 2015.

Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies: 105th overall pick (4th round) of the 2000 amateur draft by the Montreal Expos. Lee has bounced around over his career. In his most recent trade before reaching free agency, Lee was traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Texas Rangers for Matthew Lawson (has yet to play in the major leagues), Blake Beaven, Josh Lueke and Justin Smoak. Lawson was a 14th round pick in 2007; Beaven was the 17th overall pick in 2007; Lueke was a 16th round pick in 2007; and Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the 2008 draft. The Mariners also sent Mark Lowe, a 5th round pick in 2004, and some cash, to the Rangers to complete the deal.

Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies: 17th overall pick of 1995 amateur draft. In December, 2009, Halladay was traded with cash to the Phillies for Travis d'Arnaud (has yet to play in majors), Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor. Drabek was the 18th overall pick in the 2006 draft; Taylor was the 173rd pick (5th round) of the 2007 draft; d'Arnaud was the 37th overall pick (1st round) in the 2007 draft.

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 12th overall pick of the 2004 amateur draft; under contract with the Angels through 2016.

Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 72nd overall pick (2nd round) of 2001 amateur draft. In July, 2010, Haren was traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Angels for a player to be named later, Patrick Corbin (has yet to play in majors), Rafael Rodriguez and Joe Saunders. Corbin was a 2nd round pick in 2009; Rodriguez signed as an amateur free agent in 2001; Saunders was the 12th overall pick of the 2002 amateur draft. The Angels sent Tyler Skaggs (has yet to play in majors), the 40th overall pick of the 2009 amateur draft, to the Diamondbacks, to complete the deal.

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers: 46th overall pick (2nd round) of 2004 amateur draft; under contract with Brewers through 2014 with a team option for 2015.

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants: 25th overall pick of 2002 amateur draft; under contract with the Giants through 2012.

Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals: 15th overall pick of 1993 amateur draft by the Toronto Blue Jays; released by the Blue Jays in October, 2002, and signed as a free agent by the Cardinals later that year. Under contract with Cardinals through 2013.

Just looking at this list, one thing becomes clear immediately: most of this talent was recognized by scouts, as 8 of the 11 players on this list that participated in the amateur draft were drafted in the first round; only Gallardo, Haren and Lee went after the first round; and King Felix was signed as an amateur free agent.

What about the players that teams have given up in order to acquire an ace? Not surprisingly, teams are giving up first round picks -- in some cases multiple first round picks -- to get an ace. Look at the Rangers' deal to get Cliff Lee: they gave up the 17th and 11th overall picks in the 2007 and 2008 draft to get Lee for half a season. Sure, Smoak hasn't exactly panned out yet, but many thought he would be a star.

One other pitcher that projects as a future ace -- or at least the Yankees think so -- is Michael Pineda. This 23 year-old, hard throwing righty was just traded from the Mariners to the Yankees, and the key piece of the exchange was Jesus Montero, undoubtedly the Yankees' top prospect. Pineda looked great the first half of 2011, but struggled in the second half. He ended up 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA in 171 innings. Though he projects as a future star, nothing is guaranteed. Montero looked good in a September call-up, posting a .328/.406/.590 line in 69 plate appearances. He projects to be a great hitter, and the Yankees gave him up (along with pitcher Hector Noesi), in exchange for Pineda and minor leaguer Jose Campos. Though Pineda doesn't yet belong on the list of ace pitchers, this move further demonstrates the hot commodity that is an ace -- or a potential ace.

So, Twins fans, would you give up one or more of Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, to get a "true ace?" How about our last couple 1st round picks, Levi Michael and Alex Wimmers? Would you give them up -- and everything that they might pan out to be -- for a "true ace" that could anchor the rotation for several years, but that would also command a $20 million salary? Because that, in the absence of good drafting, seems to be the going rate.

As always, I'm curious for your thoughts.

What Makes an MVP? Verlander is a Compelling Case

Some years there are no-doubt favorites for baseball's MVP awards. In 2009, for instance, Joe Mauer was expected to, and almost did, sweep the first place voting. He led the league in batting average, hit for power, got on base at an amazing clip, and did it all while catching, which is undoubtedly the most physically demanding position in baseball. Furthermore, Joe led the Twins' resurgence down the stretch in the AL Central, helping them tie, then pass, the Detroit Tigers and win the division. Where would the Twins have been without Joe Mauer in 2009? If there's an image in the baseball dictionary next to the entry for "AL MVP," I expect it to be of Joe Mauer, circa 2009 (contrast this with the image of "Joe Mauer, 2011," which I believe would depict Joe Mauer, a kitten, Tylenol Cold & Flu, and angry teammates).

2011 is shaping up to be an interesting year, at least in terms of AL MVP voting. Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays, Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson and CC Sabathia of the Yankees, and Adrian Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury of the Boston Red Sox, are all likely to receive votes this year. The player I want to discuss today, however, is Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers.

Verlander simply has had a dominant year, having secured his 20th victory before the calendar turned to September. Verlander has only 5 losses on the year, and his ERA currently sits a 2.34. As the Twins have seen, he has become a power pitcher. He routinely throws in the mid-90s, but when necessary, is capable of elevating his fastball to another level, topping out just shy of 100 miles per hour. Best of all, he can control those power pitches. When the situation dictates, Verlander has another gear entirely. Few pitchers have that ability. Verlander has averaged 7.5 innings pitched per start this year. That's where I believe a large part of his value comes into play. Otherwise stated, in an average Verlander start, he leaves the bullpen responsible for getting approximately 4 or 5 outs. And we know based on his other stats that, on an average Verlander night, he is pitching very well in those 7.5 innings.

Where would the Tigers be without Justin Verlander in 2011? The answer is likely not in first place. Aside from Verlander, the Tigers are a good -- but not great -- team. Don't be fooled by the Twins' failures against the Tigers this year. Sure, they mean something, but to me it's much more a reflection on the Twins' pathetic season than it is the Tigers' dominance. I'm suggesting that, in terms of importance and value, what Mauer was to the Twins in 2009, Verlander is to the Tigers in 2011.

I completely understand, and to an extent agree with, the arguments against voting for a pitcher as baseball MVP: they only play in 20 percent of the games; in the AL they do not contribute at all offensively; and there is the Cy Young award precisely for that reason. Accordingly, many argue, how "valuable" can a pitcher be, compared, for example, with Mauer, who when healthy is involved in almost every single pitch of every game, or a shortstop like Dustin Pedroia, who captains an infield for almost every inning of a 162 game season?

I get that argument, but in terms of value, Verlander has been so valuable in his 30 starts this season that, in my mind, it almost vitiates the fact that he is not an every-day player. He has won 70 percent of his starts, and has thrown 4 complete games. Verlander has an effect on the bullpen, as well as his other starting pitchers: Jim Leyland has the luxury of being able to overwork the bullpen (if necessary, of course) the night before a Verlander start, because the numbers dictate that there's a very good chance Verlander is going to leave little work for others. Furthermore, following a Verlander start, in theory, many members of the bullpen should be pitching on good rest. This trickles down to the starter for the next day, as well, who often pitches knowing that when they leave the game, it will be in the hands of a healthy and rested bullpen. How many times this season have Twins fans seen the domino effects of short starts and overworked bullpens? It feels like dozens.

I'm not suggesting that Verlander is necessarily going to get my BBA MVP vote this year. I am of the opinion that he is equally, if not more, valuable this season than Bautista, Ellsbury, Gonzalez, Sabathia, Cano or Granderson. Though he is not an every day player, it is naive to suggest that the effects of his pitching dominance -- and long-lasting starts -- extend no further than the 20 percent of games in which he appears. The Yankees, without Cano, could still be competing in a tough AL East, as could the Red Sox without Ellsbury. It would indeed be more difficult, but it would be possible. Verlander, with his 7.8 WAR rating (by comparison, Granderson: 5.1; Cano: 4.3; Bautista: 8.1; Gonzalez: 6.0; Ellsbury: 6.1; Sabathia: 5.8) represents such an important piece of a Tigers team that is good, but not great, that his value this year cannot be overstated.

It will be interesting to see how the last month of the regular season plays out. If Bautista keeps slugging, if Ellsbury continues his great season, and if Granderson continues to hit the ball all over Yankee Stadium, anyone could win this award. If Verlander, however, continues to dominate in his starts, and if the Tigers win the AL Central, Verlander deserves serious trophy consideration, and not just for the Cy Young award.