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Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Joe Mauer's 2012: What's a Good Outcome from the Fan's Standpoint?


Much like the ominous sky pictured here at Target Field, what the future holds for Joe Mauer in 2012 is also unclear.

According to fangraphs, in 2009, when the Twins paid Joe Mauer $12.5 million, he provided $35.4 million in value. In 2011, when the Twins paid Mauer $23 million, he provided $7.9 million in value. Clearly, both the Twins, and I'm sure Mauer, want to see stats more similar to the 2009 numbers than the 2011 numbers. I think now, though, we mostly have come to terms with the likelihood that Mauer will never again replicate his historic 2009 season.


It's tough to imagine Mauer hitting almost 30 home runs while playing half his games at Target Field. Though I think he could very well bat in the .340s, or even.350 again, .365/.444/.587 seems like a stretch. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that Mauer's best days are behind him and that he's a washed-up athlete--but I do think that 2009 will stand out for decades as the best season ever for a catcher.


So what should fans be happy with in 2012? A select few wouldn't even be content if Mauer batted .400, or broke the home run record, or did both in the same season. They would cite his $23 million salary and its effect on a team with a $100 million payroll, and rest on that alone. While it's clear that Mauer's contract has long-lasting financial implications for the Twins, citing the contract alone and expecting 8 MVP seasons from Mauer is an untenable viewpoint that ignores the concept of paying a player a "market rate" contract, so I'm just going to disregard it. Even if Mauer's contract goes down as a bust, I'd take one bad market rate contract over what had been the Twins' historical trend -- losing every single Twins player to free agency.


I think we can isolate a few things that should give Mauer a lot of value this year. The first, of course, is health. If he can catch over 100 games, and DH/1B/RF for another 35-40, that's a good sign. In fact, if he plays 140 games, there's a pretty good chance he stayed healthy (enough) the entire year. And when Mauer's healthy, he rarely has major batting slumps. The second, as I just alluded to, is that Mauer is catching. I'm not one who believes that all of his value is tied up in catching: I think fans need to realize that Mauer catching 100 games and being half-injured all season isn't really a great "value" to the Twins, and probably on paper doesn't provides less benefit than if they just threw him in right field for the whole season, and let him be simply average there and hit for little power. But still, his best position is catcher, and that's his bread and butter for now--at least from the standpoint of racking up value and Wins Above Replacement. The third thing is also related to defense. I'd love to see Mauer throw out a higher percentage of base-stealers. In 2005, he threw out 43%; in 2007, 53%. The last three seasons, however, have been 26%, 26% and 30%. Imagine, over the course of a season, the impact that an increase in Mauer's caught-stealing percentage could have on team defense as a whole. His fielding percentage at catcher last year, .987, was also the lowest of his career. Knowing what we know now, it's obvious that he was rarely healthy at any point in 2011. So I'm going to give him a pass on his defense for last year, but hope that he returns to form this season.

Funny enough, if Mauer is healthy enough to stay at catcher all season, I am completely confident that his batting will be fine. Sure, the home run total probably won't be high, but that doesn't mean the guy can't hit a bunch of doubles. He hit 43 doubles in 2010, along with 9 HR. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mauer hit 50 doubles in 2012 if he can stay in the lineup.


Here's my ideal projection for Joe Mauer in 2012 -- how I think he could "earn" his salary, if you will, while still recognizing that, for whatever reason, he's never going to be the home run hitter he was in 2009: Play a minimum of 140 total games, at least 115 at catcher; throw out at least 35% of base stealers; bat .335 with 50 doubles, and hit over 10 HR; reach base at a clip of over .400. I expect that the RBIs, really a team statistic, will come, as well, if Ben Revere in the 9-hole, Denard Span, and Jamey Carroll, can be good on-base guys.

Sure, those likely aren't MVP numbers, but it's a pretty good formula for success. And last time I checked, there's a short list of catchers that can bat over .300. Projections always are humorous if you look at them after the season has taken place, so we'll see what actually happens in 2012. But if the Twins want to have any chance of even playing above .500, this is where it all starts. What do you think? What does Mauer have to do to earn his salary on the field this season?

13 comments:

  1. I think that and .850 or .900 OPS with a bunch of doubles and those 140 games would be fine.
    I think that the lack of home run power is one thing, but someone like Mauer should be racking up the doubles at Target Field.
    I suspect, since Doumit in on the squad and there will be a wait and see for Morneau, some of those games will be at 1B as well as at DH. Maybe catch 100 and play 20 each at 1B and DH.

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  2. I'd take that from Mauer and consider that a successful season. A bonus if he has that kind of year is we will not see much of Butera.

    One factor that will have at least some impact on Mauer's numbers will be who bats behind him and how well will he/they do. If Morneau is back to form, Mauer will have a big year. If Morneau struggles and Willingham is not moved to bat cleanup, Mauer draws a bunch more walks or starts swinging at too many pitches out of the zone out of frustration.

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  3. Basically, you're asking for just a little bit better season than he had in 2010 (the year of the heal bruise and the infamous bunt as I recall). If he can stay healthy, he should have no trouble reaching those targets.

    And I'd be satisfied with that. The big question is whether he can hit the 115/140 target.

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    1. A/K/A the heel bruise. (I really do know the difference although as I recall, he had a bit of trouble getting the heel to heal.)

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  4. Thanks for the comments. Yes, I think the 1-sentence version of what I'm seeking is a 2010+ season. I don't expect 2011, but I hope for a little better than 2010, and also that Mauer isn't limping (metaphorically or physically) into September.

    Thrylos, I would be fine with 20 games or so at first. I think it's good for the present, and good for long-term planning (depending on what happens with Morneau, and how ready Parmelee is). Depending on what happens with Morneau this season, it's probably a safe bet that Mauer will be, at the very least, taking grounders there in spring training.

    PK, you're right about the cleanup hitter. Mauer is going to need the opportunity to see some good pitches to hit. That's been part of the problem the last few years. It'll be interesting, on a similar note, to see if there's a reduction in power for Ryan Braun without Prince Fielder batting behind him.

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  5. If Mauer is not catching 120-125 games in 2012 he is not doing the job the Twins paid him to do. Simple as that.

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    1. JJ, thanks for the comment. In a perfect world, I think Mauer does have to catch 120+ games to justify his contract.

      With the reality of the last 2 seasons (limping into the playoffs in 2010, not having recovered from the surgery to start 2011, and everything that followed) I think the Twins might take a more cautious approach to the number of games caught. Dave St. Peter and Bill Smith have both hinted at 120 being the "magic number," so hopefully you're right. But I would add to that equation: 120 healthy (enough) games. Sure, a half-healthy Mauer is probably better than Butera on his best day, but I think we saw that an ailing Joe Mauer is really just a singles hitter at best.

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  6. Hey Your blog is great!! Can I add it to my blog list? I also have a sports blog on blogger. it's wherefantasymeetsreality@blogspot. check it out! For Mauer I tend not to think about dollars and cents in relation to output. Fact is, Mauer is the heart of that team and he earns his money beyond x's and o's that show up statistically. After last season, all we can really expect is a much better year from both mauer and pretty much the entire team as a whole. Cheers brother!

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  7. I want to see him catch 125+ games,Hit at least .320,40+ doubles would be nice,15 HR's & 90+ RBI'S would be great,cut way down on his ground balls to 2nd base,along with his K's,and just come thru with more clutch hits like he use to. To be the guy that you don't want to pitch to with guys on base(like he use to be)!

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  8. Mauer has to hit .300 with 30+ HR and 100+ RBI to "earn" his contract. I mean let's be honest here, there are no other hitters making $20+ Million/Yr that have never had 30 HR or 100 RBI in a season. Well, maybe Carl Crawford but that was a bad contract also. His value is as a catcher, so he should catch 130-140 games. Since he his not going to be a .900+ OPS He has to be the best catcher in baseball. Otherwise they could have Verlander and Avila for $23 Mill/Yr.

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  9. Only in Minnesota would you pay a guy MVP money and call getting not quite Carlos Quentin numbers "earning" his salary. There is ZERO reason Mauer can't be expected to have 20+ HRs and 100+ RBIs. You can get guy that hits 10 HRs out of AAA on callups. For all the gimmicky stats in baseball today your #3 hitter needs to play almost every day, reach base, and drive in runs period. For $23 million that's not a lot to ask.

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  10. Last 2 Anonymous, thanks for the comments. In a perfect world, I agree that Mauer would hit over 20 HR and drive in over 100 RBIs. I was trying to be realistic and think -- apart from HR and RBIs -- how Mauer can rack up enough value to be worth the salary. And it comes down to excellent defense and batting over .300. There still aren't many catchers that get on base at more than a .400 clip, and Mauer will almost certainly do that if healthy.

    Look at Matt Wieters last year. Here was his line: .262/.328/.450, 22 HR and 68 RBIs. Fangraphs says that he was worth $19.2 million. He had a .995 fielding percentage and threw out 37% of runners. That's just one example, but clearly a catcher that can hit better than average, and can throw out a decent percentage of runners, provides more value than, say, an outfielder or a first baseman with a similar offensive stat line. When you're talking about Mauer's value, Wieters is a better comp than Crawford or Quinten, in my opinion.

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  11. i think it is sad that any player with mauer's size can't hit at least 30 home runs a year. remember.... mantle hit for average and power, so does albert. no reason joe can't. he is in the prime age years now. time to step up and be what you can be.

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