Aaron Hicks and the Rock Cats, Twins Baseball and the Future, & the SethSpeaks Weekly Twins Podcast

Thus far, good things are coming out of New Britain

A few unrelated items this morning. First, if you missed it, yesterday I wrote about Alex Wimmers' first AA Rock Cats start that took place Monday night, and Aaron Hicks' monster game that helped give the Rock Cats a big victory. This morning, the good news coming out of New Britain, despite a 7-2 loss to the Harrisburg Senators last night, was that top prospect Aaron Hicks was 2-for-4 with another home run. That's two home runs in two days, and the latest came batting lefty, which is the weaker side for Hicks. A batting average that was a laughable .077 just a couple days ago is now .250, and Hicks is 4 for his last 8, with 5 RBIs in just two games. Clearly, when he's "on," his bat can lead a team. We're all looking for consistency from Hicks, so hopefully these past couple games are a sign of things to come. Whether the Twins decide to keep him as part of the projected 2014-2015 "new look outfield" that's easy to imagine being fantastic (with Joe Benson, too), or whether the organization eventually tries to package him in a trade for some kind of power starting pitching, it's an incredibly important season for Hicks in terms of development and career trajectory. The final Rock Cats note for this morning concerns middle infield depth. Pedro Florimon is off to a fast start for New Britain, with a .400/.429/.450 slash line in his first 20 at-bats, and has looked solid in the field from what I have seen. I don't expect too much from him in terms of what he could do for the Twins, but it's nice to see him start off hot. The Rock Cats play at 10:35 eastern time this morning. Talk about an early start! If anything newsworthy happens, I'll post this afternoon.

Second, how about those Minnesota Twins? I've barely been discussing them lately. Between the pathetic offense (except Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham) and the fact that Scott Baker is already out indefinitely, I feel like we're in for a long season. Yes, I know that 4 games is nothing, and tonight the Twins could easily start a 4-game winning streak. That's just how baseball works. But the pitching has me worried for the long-term, and that hasn't even been the weak point for this team thus far.

A lot of fans are concerned with the depth of the Twins' minor league system, and rightfully so. Here's a question for you: What if the Twins stink again this season? I don't mean winning 78 or 80 games, but more like winning 65 or 68. What if they can secure a top 3 pick in the 2013 draft? Between this year's #2 overall pick and a top selection next season, the Twins could have a rare opportunity to add top-shelf draft talent, which would complement some of the exciting players, like Miguel Sano, that are coming up through the organization.

In other words, if you agree with me that this is not a playoff team in 2012, even with a healthy Scott Baker and Joe Mauer, would you rather watch an 81-81 season, or would you prefer to see a bad season in which the team unloaded some players before they hit free agency, and was able to secure a top pick next year? It's an interesting discussion, anyway.

Finally, I was thrilled to be a guest on Seth Stohs' SethSpeaks Weekly Twins Podcast. I talked Rock Cats baseball for 10 minutes or so, and was happy for the opportunity to do so. Seth had me on right after Brian Dozier finished up. A tough act to follow! Dozier sounds like a great guy, and I believe he's ready to take over at shortstop right about now. If you didn't listen to the podcast live, you can listen any time by clicking here.

Alex Wimmers' First AA Start: He Belongs in New Britain

2008 First Round draft pick
Aaron Hicks,  #31, warming up
before the game

Last week, I was fortunate enough to have dinner with and talk to Twins 2010 first round draft pick Alex Wimmers. He sounded pretty geared up for his first start, which took place last night before an announced crowd of 3,126 in New Britain. New Britain won 6-3 over the Harrisburg Senators, the AA affiliate of the Washington Nationals. Wimmers -- though he pitched only 40 innings in Class A last season -- was not overmatched at all by AA hitters.

In the first inning, Wimmers struck out Eury Perez, the first hitter he faced, looking. He also gave up a double and a single, but was the fortunate recipient of a 9-2 Evan Bigley to Chris Herrmann play at the plate to save a run. In 53 degree weather, Wimmers' fastball was initially registering 86 and 87 on the radar gun, but got up to 89 as he warmed up. His offspeed stuff was just under 70, and definitely fooled some hitters.

2010 First Round draft pick Alex Wimmers
warming up before facing his first AA competition

Wimmers walked a batter to lead off the second, but got out of the inning unscathed. In the third inning, he gave up a first-pitch solo home run to the Harrisburg #9 hitter, Josh Johnson, but then retired the next three hitters. The next inning, third baseman Deibinson Romero committed an error on a hard grounder through his legs, and Wimmers walked the next batter. Thereafter, though, he showed composure, getting the next hitter to pop out weakly to catcher, and striking out the Harrisburg third baseman for the final out.

The fifth inning would be Wimmers' last. After Josh Johnson, who previously homered, led off the inning with a bunt single, the next two batters singled -- one on a grounder to third that was ruled an infield hit. All of the sudden, the bases were loaded with no outs. The #3 hitter for Harrisburg then grounded back to Wimmers, who alertly threw home for the force out. That would be the last hitter Wimmers would face. Delois Guerra came on in relief, and gave up a run-scoring single before retiring the side. That run, of course, was charged to Wimmers. In the end, Wimmers' line for the day was good: 4 and 1/3 innings pitched; 2 earned runs; 6 hits; 3 strikeouts (2 looking); 2 walks. He threw 83 total pitches (I had 50 as strikes) in fairly chilly conditions, and I imagine he was on a pitch count this early in the season, and this early in his professional career. Wimmers was solid in his debut. There was definitely room for improvement, but he looked ready for AA competition, and I look forward to seeing him in action again.

Because this is a fan blog, and I'm a fan of Alex Wimmers, I'll say this, too: he wasn't out of gas in the fifth inning. 2 of the 3 hits he allowed that inning were a bunt single and a slow chopper to third that a better third baseman might have converted for an out (as it was, the runner beat it out by just a half step). Wimmers thereafter gave up a routine line drive single, and then made a nice play on a weakly hit, high-bouncing chopper back to the mound. So in his final inning, only 1 ball was solidly struck. If this was June or July and 85 degrees out, I would have liked to have seen Wimmers stay in there and get out of the jam.


Though he got into a jam in the fifth inning,
Alex Wimmers definitely looked capable of facing
AA competition



If you're looking for the hero of the game, though, look no further than Aaron Hicks. Up until tonight, he was not playing well. I felt justified in questioning whether he was, in fact, ready for AA ball. His first at-bat was frustrating. With a runner in scoring position and two outs, Hicks flailed weakly at two offspeed, well off-the-plate pitches, before grounding out to end the inning. In fact, at one point early this evening, Hicks was batting .077. Everything changed, though, after a tough 9-pitch at-bat in the bottom of the third inning, when Hicks, batting right handed, hit a no-doubt, 3 run homer to right center field. New Britain Stadium has what I would estimate to be a 15 foot tall fence all around the stadium, and Hicks' tater easily cleared the wall. In his next at-bat, Hicks lined a sharp single up the middle to score Evan Bigley. All of the sudden, he had 4 RBIs through only 5 innings. On the night, Hicks ended up 2-for-4, with a homer, 4 RBIs, a strikeout and a groundout, and 2 runs scored. It was a solid night, and had to be both relieving and exhilarating for Hicks.

After a 2-hit, 4 RBI
performance, Hicks was the
clear choice for player
of the game

Other notable performers included Bigley, who recorded two hits, including a well struck double to deep right-center field, and a sacrifice fly, as well as the previously mentioned great throw to home plate to cut down a Harrisburg runner in the first inning. Outfielder Darin Mastroianni had two hits, and, looking alert on the base paths, two stolen bases. Guerra was good out of the bullpen. Although he gave up a hit to score a run (charged to Wimmers), he went 2 and 2/3 innings, gave up only 2 hits, walked none, and struck out 1 batter. He earned the win. Finally, it's worth noting that Deibinson Romero atoned for his error at third base, compiling 3 hits, including a double. Daniel Turpen gave up 1 run in 2 innings to close out the game, and hit 94 on the radar gun, striking out 2 along the way.

It was a beautiful, if chilly, night for outdoor baseball

These Rock Cats are looking good early in the season. They racked up 13 hits tonight, including 3 for extra bases. Bigley already has 7 RBIs this season. How many runs have the Twins -- the entire team -- scored this year? New Britain pitchers gave up only 2 walks, which is good, and were able to get out of jams and hold leads. This will be a fun team to watch!

Camden Yards Recap: Twins Begin Their Losing Ways, or an Aberration?

Camden Yards from the hotel window.

Well, the baseball side of things left a lot to be desired, but you're not much of a baseball fan if you can't have a great time at opening weekend at Camden Yards. Before Friday's game, I got to say hi to veteran blogger Topper Anton from Curve for a Strike. Great guy, and it was cool to meet another east coast transplant Twins blogger. There were also several Twins fans in attendance. We sat next to the coaching staff's wives one day, and also near Josh Willingham's family another day. I also ran into a guy I went to high school with. It was a good sized, and vocal, community of Twins fans sitting near their dugout. And, as usual, the players were pretty responsive to the fans. Denard Span, especially, spent a lot of time signing autographs before Sunday's game.

So far, Morneau looks like a man on a mission to hit the
ball as hard as possible.

I'll start with the one positive from the Twins' side: Justin Morneau is, far and away, the best hitter on this team right now. A month ago, who would have thought that? I attended the Saturday and Sunday games. In those 2 games, Morneau hit 2 hard doubles (1 looked like a home run off the bat, but didn't have the height), one hard single that nearly took off the first baseman's foot, and had 2 long outs to the outfield, one of which missed being a home run by 5 feet or so. He also worked ahead in the count, and was selectively choosing which pitches to swing at. There was little of the flailing that we saw last season, and he didn't bail out on any pitches. Morneau is so locked in that, if he stays healthy, he should hit 20 home runs and at least 40 doubles.

Francisco Liriano warming up before he, and the Twins,
imploded

Saturday, Francisco Liriano looked like he was going to be great after the first inning. He struck out the side convincingly, and Joe Mauer actually tossed me the game ball as he jogged back to the dugout. That first inning, unfortunately, was the highlight of the game for the Twins. Yes, Liriano was not good the rest of the game, but I'm pegging a lot of that on the defense -- Josh Willingham, and to a lesser extent, Danny Valencia. The defense was cringe-worthy, and that, along with Liriano becoming a head-case after giving up a relatively unimportant solo home run in the second inning, undid the Twins. Like everyone else, I was expecting a lot better from Liriano. If he can't get his head under control -- against the Orioles in April -- I don't know what to do with him. Hopefully, it was just a rocky start and he'll rebound later this week. He was probably angry with his performance, and angry with his teammates. Rightfully so on both counts.

I don't have very many other positive things to say. Anthony Swarzak was decent yesterday. He kept the Twins in the game, even as they were getting no-hit into the seventh inning. Jamey Carroll looked good at shortstop, but bad at the plate. He doesn't have a hit yet, but he does run hard down to first base, so there's that. Valencia is off. He grounded into 2 double plays Saturday and, though he wasn't charged with an error in that game, have a mental lapse on a play where he should have covered third base, but did not. During infield practice yesterday, the coaches were working with Valencia. Perhaps he is on a short leash again, because Sean Burroughs started at third on Sunday, while Valencia watched. Chris Parmelee looked like a rookie out there. His at-bats weren't very good on the whole, but there's room for optimism with him.

After the small sample size, I'm left thinking that this Twins team isn't nearly as bad as they played this past weekend, but also isn't very good, either. There are going to be defensive concerns all over the place. Left field and right field could be problem areas. Willingham didn't look very comfortable in the small left field of Camden Yards -- I wonder how he will fare at Target Field? And the offense was troubling, to say the least. Baltimore's pitchers were just adequate this weekend, and the Twins made them, for the most part, look like All-Stars. Not a good way to start out. I still think this could be a .500 team, but the offense has to start clicking.

On a side note, I love Target Field, but Camden Yards is still #1 for this fan. I will say, though, that Target Field definitely has Baltimore beat in terms of concessions. Sure, we don't have softshell crab sandwiches at our ballpark, but that's about the only unique food at Camden Yards. The rest seemed to be hot dogs, popcorn and burgers. Also, it is nice having the open concourse at Target Field. We missed over an inning of Saturday's game searching for food, and it would have been nice to have had that open view of the stadium. So, in its 20 years, Camden has aged a little bit. But without Camden Yards, there's no footprint for PNC in Pittsburgh, San Francisco's great stadium, and even Target Field. Happy anniversary to the "parent" stadium for this great new generation of classic American ballparks.

After catching Liriano's third strikeout in the first inning,
Mauer looked at me as he was jogging back to the dugout.
I was wearing a "HC" hat, which is the nickname for
New Britain (Hardware City). It looks like a TC Twins hat.
He sort of pointed at me, and flipped the ball right to me
over the Twins' dugout.

Mr. & Mrs. Fan From Afar

Camden Yards



Happy Easter from Camden Yards!
Picture from Hilton Hotel balcony



Is this heaven? No, it's New Britain

Opening Day is special for fans and players alike -- especially for players in the minor leagues who are working their way up the system and hoping to latch on with a new, better team each season. After spending some time with Alex Wimmers and the other Rock Cats players the other night, I have a new found respect for what these guys are going through. Tonight, I attended the New Britain Rock Cats opening night against the dreaded Richmond Flying Squirrels, AA affiliate of the San Francisco Giants.

Thursdays are $4 Sam Adams drafts
at New Britain Stadium.
Gotta love MiLB

You can read an official game re-cap here, but I thought it might be enjoyable to read this fan's perspective of the Rock Cats' 3-2 opening day victory. I'll begin by noting that it was a chilly night in central Connecticut. It was 45 degrees for the first pitch, and 42 by the time the game ended. It was also blustery out. Not quite the t-shirt and shorts weather that we had a couple weeks ago, unfortunately, and I think it affected both teams' pitching decisions. Lucas French, making his first New Britain start, was solid. He gave up only 2 hits in 5 innings, striking out 4 and walking 2. The stat line is great, and I would say that French was very good -- but not great. Interestingly, his fastball seemed to be his worst pitch tonight. Perhaps it was the weather, but early in the game he was throwing it very, very high, consistently. Luckily his off-speed stuff (couldn't tell whether it was a curve or a change-up from where I was sitting) was excellent, and he kept the hitters guessing and off-balance. In the first inning, he also picked off the leadoff batter for Richmond on a nice play. There weren't too many hard hit balls of of French, and he also induced a nice double play grounder to finish his evening.


On the Rock Cats' offensive side, Evan Bigley provided the big hit, and it was in the first inning. After newly acquired Darin Mastroianni led off the inning with an infield single, Bigley smashed a double over the head of the center fielder. He probably hit it 390 feet, and very hard. More of a line drive than a fly ball. Mastroianni, who had by then advanced to second, scored easily. In the third inning, following a James Beresford leadoff single, Chris Herrmann hit a first-pitch RBI single to the hole between first and second to score Beresford. Thereafter, Bigley grounded into a double play, but Mastroianni (who had walked after the Beresford single) scored.

Darin Mastroianni leading off the season for New Britain

Both starting pitchers were pretty solid, but both exited the game after 5 innings. After the sun set, it was really cold, and a bit windy. By this point, Rocky the Rock Cat was curled up in the fetal position atop the home dugout, presumably trying to draw heat from the Rock Cats' dugout radiant heating system. OK, that part didn't happen. But I had to imagine that it was a little rough on pitchers tonight.

The Rock Cats held a 3-0 lead until the 9th inning. Daniel Turpen, who had pitched a scoreless 8th for New Britain, was unable to get it done in the final inning. He gave up 2 singles to start the inning, then recorded two outs. The next batter hit an infield single to second base. Actually, Beresford made a great play at second to keep the ball in the infield, but because both runners were going on contact, 2 runs scored. All of the sudden, it was a game. Lester Oliveros came on and struck out the final batter to earn the save for New Britain. Here's the box score.

Winners for the evening: French, for pitching 5 scoreless innings when it was pretty cold, and picking off the first batter that reached base. Bigley, for coming through with a big double early in the game. Herrmann had two hits, as did Beresford. They get honorable mentions.

Losers: No losers because the good guys won. But I will say that Hicks didn't look great at the plate. He was 0-for-4. In one at-bat that I paid particular attention to, he took 4 pitches (I think), and was ahead in the count, before ultimately swinging at pitch that wasn't very good. But he played well in center.

The "Wall of Fame." Recognize any of these guys??

The crowd, though energetic, did not
appreciate the weather.

All in all, it was a good start for New Britain. The attendance was listed at 4,653, but by the time the game ended, there were probably 250 people there. I liked what I saw from the pitchers, and the defense was very solid. No skipped throws to first, no funny routes on fly balls. In other words, the fundamentals looked good for so early in the season. I'll be heading back in another couple weeks, if not sooner (I want to watch Wimmers start), so I plan to provide game summaries and pictures from each outing.

My Evening with Alex Wimmers: 2012 Rock Cats Annual "Welcome Home" Dinner

As much as I love going to Twins games, there's something special about minor league baseball. It's intimate and personal. It's real and unadulterated -- both the good and the bad. Every year, the New Britain Rock Cats host a "welcome home" dinner for the team, the front office and the fans. This year, it was held at the New Britain Elks Lodge #957, just a stone's throw from New Britain stadium. Walking in, I was reminded of my own baseball past -- spaghetti dinners at the White Bear Lake VFW, with the veterans wanting to see what their $500 uniform sponsorship had purchased that season, and post-season American Legion awards banquets held in the basement of the Roseville American Legion.


This welcome home dinner felt substantially similar. We were in the basement of the lodge. It was warm, and the decor was old, as were some of the Elks in attendance. There were all sorts of fans there, including tons of kids, which was great. And most importantly, every player on the Rock Cats' roster was in attendance. And I'll say this: the Twins organization does a fantastic job of making sure that each and every player coming up through the system -- even those from the Dominican Republic that hardly speak a word of English -- does their very best to be polite and considerate to all fans. I saw a couple dozen kids walking around with baseballs signed by literally every player on the roster.

The Miller Lite was flowing. A beer at the Elks Lodge cost just a fraction of what it will cost tonight at the stadium for the opener, and was hardly more than the cost of buying beer at a liquor store. When I walked in, some of the players (all wearing name tags) were talking with each other near the bar. I'm sure some of them had not participated in too many of these events. And as I learned later, many were just getting to know each other.

At this dinner, one player sat at every table. The previous evening, I had told my brother-in-law that, if I got to choose one player to sit with us, it would be Alex Wimmers. I think he's interesting, and has great potential. You have to like the fact that, although he suffered great difficulties early last season, he came back and threw a no-hitter in his final start of 2011. Clearly, the Twins are high on Wimmers, because they promoted him to AA after only 40 innings in Ft. Myers. After we all sat down for dinner, Jeff Dooley, the voice of the Rock Cats, introduced the roster one-by-one, and assigned each player to a table. To my surprise, Wimmers was assigned to our table.

For three hours, talking to 6 adults and a 10 year-old kid across the table, Wimmers was awesome. He answered a lot of questions, initiated conversation on a bunch of different topics, and was especially cool with the little kid. We learned a lot of stuff. First, Wimmers had only been in Connecticut for a couple days, and had just found an apartment to rent (with 3 other players) that same day. He didn't have transportation to and from this event -- he didn't even know how he was getting home when the dinner ended! Like some others, he had shipped his car up from Ft. Myers, and it wasn't scheduled to arrive for a couple more days.

He talked a lot about coming up through the system. Wimmers really looks up to Joe Mauer. It almost sounded like hyperbole, but he talked about Mauer's work ethic and how all the younger guys learn a lot from Mauer just by being around him during drills and stuff. Wimmers said he got to pitch to Mauer one time in a spring game, and that it was pretty cool. Wimmers definitely believes he's on the fast track. According to Wimmers, Terry Ryan impressed on the AA crew that top performers will not necessarily have to stop in Rochester. Although that's the normal course of events, Ryan has made these guys believe that they are close to the show. Wimmers knows he has a lot to prove this season, and he looked like a guy ready to go to work. He was confident without being arrogant.

Wimmers also talked about the daily schedule. I once attended a baseball camp where the coaching staff called pitchers "non-athletes." Sort of jokingly, sort of not. Wimmers is an athlete. On his 4 non-pitching days, the physical routine is rigorous. Lots of lifting, running, stretching and throwing. No down time. And he looked the part. Having seen Scott Baker, Carl Pavano and a few other pitchers in person, Wimmers is in considerably better physical shape. He's pretty ripped, in fact.

The biggest thing, however, that I took out of my evening with Wimmers is that he's a young man pretty far away from home in Ohio. He's a Cincinnati Reds fan (and a Twins fan, of course). He's far away from his parents, who won't be in attendance at Rock Cats games. It sounds like he comes from a normal family. To Wimmers, his new family -- the Rock Cats -- is largely a cast of unknowns. Yes, he knows some of them from Spring Training, but others are strangers. He's living in a state he knows nothing about, working in a city that is not an especially fun place to hang out, and staying with 3 other pitchers in an apartment that's not even close to his place of work. It's an interesting life.

For a guy that signed a $1.332 million bonus to join the organization, Wimmers was down to earth. It's interesting to see both sides of the guy: the competitor that's confident that he has what it takes to make the show sooner rather than later; and the guy who was up at 6:30 that same morning trying to find a crappy apartment to share with three other players for the foreseeable future. And I bet the fans at other tables would tell you the same thing about their player, and so would the fans from the Beloit Snappers banquet and the Rochester Red Wings dinner.

Alex Wimmers and Twins Fan From Afar.
He knows how to look at the camera, at least.

The minor league baseball experience is real. It's visceral. Tonight, it smelled like an Elks Lodge basement. It's guys driving old cars to the stadium, players living together in strange apartment complexes in strange towns. It's playing double-headers to crowds of 2,000. It's signing autographs for kids that, in 2 days, might have completely forgotten who you are, or will use that same baseball that you autographed to play catch. It's having to attend fan banquets and lunches at Elks Lodges when you would rather be out partying or sleeping. Still, though, it was a pretty cool moment when Jeff Dooley mentioned that Mauer, Justin Morneau, David Ortiz, Torii Hunter, Scott Baker and Glen Perkins had all attended this event. The history and promise of it all -- that might be the best part of minor league baseball.

Tonight at New Britain Stadium the process starts anew. Wimmers is set to start Monday's game. As we were leaving, I told him that I hope he dominates, and that he's not in Connecticut for very long. Wimmers is smart -- he knows the potential vacancies with the Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano contracts expiring. He knows that Jason Marquis is probably a one-year deal. And he knows that Kyle Gibson is no longer on the fast track that he was just a year ago. In the Twins' system, there is room for good, young pitching. Hopefully Wimmers can put together a solid season, and be in Rochester -- or even Target Field -- sooner, rather than later.


I went into this event expecting roast beef and a fun time. I ended up with roast beef, a fun time and a chance to sit at a table with a guy who might, by 2014, have locked down a spot in the Twins' starting rotation.

Projections: Francisco Liriano

To say that it's a big year for Francisco Liriano is an understatement. He's coming off an awful 2011 (except for that no-hitter), he's trying to prove that he can stay healthy for an entire season, and he's pitching for a contract, whether it's from the Twins, or any of the other teams in baseball that might be interested in a lefty with a nasty slider. Earlier this winter, I made my case for trying to extend Liriano before Spring Training even started. Clearly, the Twins (and possibly Liriano) had no interest in that. So now, the Twins are faced with the options of extending Liriano during the season, trying to lock him up after the season, trading him for a potential haul during the season if the team isn't in contention and Liriano looks great, letting him walk, or possibly having to offer him a 1-year, $12.5 million deal in order to get draft pick compensation under the new collective bargaining agreement. That's a lot of money for the Twins, even with some of the starting pitching dollars likely coming off the books next season. Clearly, then, there is a lot at stake this season for both Liriano and the Twins.

I really think that we're going to see a Liriano this season that closely replicates his 2010 success. All the indicators are there: he showed up to camp healthy and in shape after pitching a little during the winter; he has not walked many batters this spring; for the most part he has kept his pitch count reasonable, allowing him to last longer; and he still has been striking out a fair number of hitters. For Liriano -- or most any starter, for that matter -- those are the keys to success, and it looks like Liriano is mostly there. Look at the numbers for Liriano this spring: 27 innings pitched; 2.33 ERA; and most impressively, 33 strikeouts and only 5 walks given up. His WHIP is 1.11, after allowing 25 total hits. So, he has been a strikeout pitcher that pitches to contact. Compare his 2012 spring stats to 2010, when he threw 20 innings, compiled a 2.70 ERA, struck out 30 and walked 5. That spring, his WHIP was 1.20, and he gave up 19 hits. Pretty similar numbers, and reason for optimism.

Unfortunately, Liriano could be pretty great this year, and it might not mean a whole lot to the Twins. The Twins look like a team that will score runs, but will also give up runs from a "just average" defense and a potentially weak bullpen. Some of Liriano's good work, then, could be undone, either by a few hits that should be outs, or from a bullpen implosion after he exits the game. My projection for Liriano this season is the following: 14-11; 3.4 ERA; 210 innings pitched; 185 strikeouts. It will be a very good season for Liriano, and I think he'll remain healthy and lead the staff in victories. And following such a season, there's going to be a contending team that says, "hey, those 14 wins he got in Minnesota would have been 17 or 18 in (pick your choice of New York, Boston, Texas or some other good team)," and a couple of those losses from blown Matt Capps saves wouldn't have happened with us, because our closer is actually good and dependable! Simply stated, I think Liriano could price himself out of Minnesota with a solid 2012 season.

In the end, it's all speculation, of course. Liriano has to stay healthy, and he has to demonstrate that he can control his emotions in big games -- otherwise contending teams will be reluctant to gamble on him. But in 2012, I think we're going to see an interesting mix of a strikeout pitcher who finally has realized the value of a 7-pitch, 3 groundout inning.
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Finally, if you have time, check out my post today on Through the Fence Baseball, discussing everyone's favorite misanthrope and star pitcher, Zack Greinke.

One Thing the Twins' Roster is Missing

As I scanned down the list of position players on the Twins' 25 man roster, and saw names like Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Denard Span as starters, and guys like Luke Hughes and Sean Burroughs off the bench, something came to mind: there shouldn't be an awful hitter on this team in 2012.

If you've followed the Twins for the past several seasons, there is always at least one hitter that can barely hit his weight, yet makes his way onto the 25 man roster, and eventually onto the field, to the chagrin of most fans. Last year, it was Drew Butera, who batted .167. Tsuyoshi Nishioka wasn't much better, hitting .226. Much to my pleasure, neither player made the Twins' roster to begin 2012. Perhaps there is hope for each. Nishioka has been playing pretty well in the AAA games, and maybe coach Tom Brunansky can help Butera at the plate?



It seems like there is no room on the
Twins' roster for the Matt Tolberts
of the world.

 Even going back to past seasons, there is always at least one guy that struggles mightily at the plate -- that we knew full well would struggle -- and yet he made the team. Matt Tolbert, for instance, batted .232, .240 and .198 in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively. His "value" was that he could play many positions, but it certainly didn't outweigh his shortcomings at the plate. How about Jason Repko, our former fourth outfielder? He hit .228 and .226 in 2010 and 2011 with the Twins. A good defensive player, yes, but I'd much rather have Ben Revere's skill set as a backup outfielder. And let's not forget Nick Punto. In fairness, he compiled a couple decent offensive seasons in Minnesota (batting .290 in 2006 and .284 in 2008). Those seasons, however, were sandwiched between seasons like 2007, where he played in 150 games and batted .210, or 2010, his final season in Minnesota, where he hit .239. Punto, however, played great defense at a few different positions, so he didn't have to hit .300 to have value. Going back a little further, there was Brian Buscher. He had one decent season (2008) in a part-time role, but hit .235 in 2009, his last year as a Twin.

The 2012 roster just feels a little different. Sure, it's possible that any one of the position players could have a Tolbert-esque season. That's the nature of baseball, and that's why the Yankees or Red Sox or Phillies don't win the World Series every season. But if I was a gambler, I'd bet that our offense will be pretty decent. Trevor Plouffe might be the biggest risk. He hit .238/.305/.392 in 81 games last season, but has looked pretty good this spring. It's a make or break year for him, as he is out of options, so I expect that he will want to produce well this season. Ben Revere may never become a great player, but it's tough to imagine him not improving at all from last season, where he compiled a .267/.310/.309 line in what was really his rookie campaign. Australian Luke Hughes, who hit .223 last season, has had a monster spring. As of a few days ago, he was leading the team in home runs, RBIs and slugging percentage. Some might think Spring Training stats are meaningless, but I don't. He was hitting the cover off the ball, and I bet it's going to translate into more success in 2012. Like Revere, it's tough to imagine Hughes not improving those 2011 stats.

Perhaps the largest unknown quantity on this roster is Sean Burroughs. The fact that he made this team as a non-roster invitee -- especially when you factor in his personal story -- is pretty impressive. Burroughs played last year in 78 games -- his first MLB action since 2006 -- and is a .273 lifetime hitter in just over 1,800 plate appearances. He'll be in a bench role in Minnesota, and I'm sure that's fine with him. Burroughs is hitting .324 this spring. Perhaps it's doubtful he could compile that kind of average off the bench in his first season in the big leagues since 2006, but I'm guessing that he will be better than the .225 hitters that we are accustomed to seeing as off-the-bench infield help.

In the end, at least from the offensive standpoint, I think the Twins are primed to have 13 decent hitters. Some will progress, some will regress and some will have typical seasons. It's nice to think, though, that there is no "guaranteed out" in the lineup or on the bench. Perhaps the concern, then, is to what extent the Twins sacrificed defense in favor of offense. Though we laughed at Punto sometimes when he batted, he was excellent defensively. Can Burroughs or Hughes turn into a great defensive specialist? Or, at the very least, can the Twins' position players make the routine plays this season to keep the team in games?

Tempered Expectations for Parmelee

Chris Parmelee should be fine. He looked great last September in a Twins uniform, and was a bright spot during an otherwise dismal time. Of the three prospects called up -- Parmelee, Joe Benson and Liam Hendriks -- Parmelee looked the most ready for the show. After watching several Rock Cats games last year in person, I was a little surprised that Parmelee, and not Benson, looked better in his time as a Twin, but that is why I don't get paid to do anything baseball related. You can call it a small sample size, and you'd be correct, but for 21 games in a Twins uniform, Parmelee had a .355/.443/.592 slash line with 4 home runs and 18 RBIs, and most importantly, didn't looked overmatched at the plate or in the field. He also just looked comfortable playing in the majors, which some call-ups are not. And to Parmelee's credit, he followed up his September cup of coffee with a nice glass of Florida orange juice. His numbers aren't quite as impressive, but with a .269 average, 3 home runs and 9 RBIs, he at least has demonstrated that the power he exhibited last September wasn't necessarily a fluke.

With Morneau presumably starting the season as the full-time designated hitter, and with Parmelee's success, Parmelee is the odds-on favorite to start the season at first base. Understandably, once fans got past the news that Morneau will now be a professional hitter, many are excited by Parmelee's potential. In fact, there have been a few blog posts, and even newspaper articles, suggesting that Parmelee might be the next big thing for the Twins. I just don't think that we should get ahead of ourselves. There's likely going to be a big difference between what Parmelee can provide at the plate over the course of a full season in the majors -- seeing pitchers and ballparks for the first time, and becoming accustomed to the rigorous travel schedule and time demands -- and what he demonstrated in New Britain and Minnesota in 2011, and in a few weeks of exhibition games in 2012. I think Parmelee will be a success, both this year and the future, but I also think that in 2012 he will much more closely resemble the player that hit a composite .282 at New Britain than the player that took Target Field by storm last September. As fans, we should be fine with that.

Parmelee, who turned 24 last month, is a rookie in the truest sense, without even a game of AAA baseball under his belt. Though he has looked fairly consistent, be ready for slumps, and expect -- at least occasionally -- for him to look overmatched at the plate. It's been a while since the Twins had an exciting rookie prospect come up that both management and fans expected to have a good career (I won't even mention Wilson Ramos; and Danny Valencia, though he did well in 2010, by no means shot up through the minor league system and never batted at or above .300 in AA or AAA). In 2005, Justin Morneau's first season as a full-time first baseman, he batted .239/.304/.437 with 22 home runs, 79 RBIs and 94 strikeouts. The power was there, clearly, but he was still a little raw. The next season he was the American League Most Valuable Player. During his nacency, Morneau was also rated the #14 and #16 prospect by Baseball America. Parmelee, conversely, did not come up through the system with such expectations attached to him. Here's what I expect from Parmelee, assuming just for now that he is a full-time starter (though likely he will be splitting time at first with Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit and perhaps Morneau): .270/.345/.440, with 18 home runs and 70 RBIs. And I expect the defense to be solid, but not astounding.

Yes, Parmelee is ready to play in Minnesota. And yes, he looks like a really solid first base prospect with perhaps an exciting future ahead of him. But there's a jump between AA, a September call-up and Spring Training exhibition games, and perhaps having to face CC Sabathia one night, and Justin Verlander or Cliff Lee the next night. The good thing, though, is that Parmelee has looked like a professional this spring, and I have little doubt that he is the type of player that will make the adjustments necessary for long-term success.