The Late Summer of My Discontent

When Target Field opened, I was living in Connecticut (as I do now), but harbored a dream of moving back to Minnesota. I was naive. I thought -- even though I was an attorney licensed to practice in Connecticut only, even though I owned a home in Connecticut, and even though many of my professional ties to Minnesota had dwindled -- that I could somehow easily move across the country and re-establish things back home. For many, many reasons (the prolonged economic crisis being one of them), that didn't happen. I'd be lying if I said that a part of me doesn't dream of going back to the Twin Cities, but I am very happy personally and professionally now. But that's not the focus of this post, believe it or not (but for my self-help blog, go here). No, I do aim to write about the Twins tonight. So read on, it's all connected.

When I thought, or, rather, naively dreamed, that Minnesota was in the cards for me, I filled out a form and paid something like $200 to get in the "On-Deck Circle" for Twins season tickets. I was only interested in a 20-game plan, which was the lowest that was offered. Yes, there was a time when demand for season tickets -- any package, anywhere in the stadium -- was so significant that the Twins simply couldn't supply tickets and seats for everyone that was interested. Long story short, I ended up getting out of the "On-Deck Circle," and of course am still writing this blog from Connecticut (side note: there's no "On-Deck Circle" for my awesome Rock Cats seats, which I very much enjoy).

The amazing part of this story is that my membership in the on-deck circle, and exit therefrom, took place in 2010. Only 3 years ago. Tonight, I could click on this link and place a deposit for up to 8 tickets for a 2014 20-game, 40-game, or full season plan for the team who will host next season's All-Star festivities, a team only 3 years removed from being one of the best teams in baseball playing in one of baseball's best stadiums.

What frustrated me in 2010 was that there was a certain hubris in the Twins organization. "We can't offer you any season ticket plan this year, or maybe not even next year or the year after, but we will hold your $200 in trust in the event that something ever becomes available. Then, we'll give you a call and take the rest of your money. OK? Talk to you later."

Good Seats Still Available

And now, in September, 2013, here is the Twins' crowd tonight (first image from Brandon Warne's Twitter account) as Pedro Hernandez was taking his warm-up tosses just before the game started. Yes, many of these seats were paid for, so the Twins received that money, but they sure are missing a lot of food, merchandise and beer revenue from that American Legion-esque crowd.

The part that bothers me, aside from the fact that the Twins are cruising toward their 3rd straight 90+ loss season, is that what I would consider to be the requisite humility from the front office simply isn't present. On the one hand, they are saying the right things, as in: "The losing is unacceptable"; "We're committed to doing better"; "This isn't the `Twins Way.'" But on the other hand, these are the exact sentiments fans heard after 2011. And after 2012. Heck, there was even anger in 2010 after they were swept -- again -- by the Yankees. I swear they recycle the same press releases. On paper -- in the win-loss ledger -- there hasn't been improvement.

Thank you to @Tappen2Feet for this image

I'll be the first person to tell you that the organization is in much better shape than it was a couple years ago. To be sure, I watched it all summer with Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Josmil Pinto and others. But with the exception of Pinto, those guys aren't contributing to the major league team now, and probably won't be on Opening Day 2014.

I hit a point where I need more. I need more than the promise of prospects (even though I understand that good prospects are the best way to build a sustainable winning franchise). I need actual accountability. I need results. On Twitter, I noted, after the Twins were swept at Target Field by the Yankees in a 4-game series over the 4th of July, that some managers in Ron Gardenhire's tenuous position would have been fired after that series. Not for losing 4 consecutive games, mind you, but for how those 4 games, against the Yankees, at home on a holiday weekend with fans having paid "premium prices," were representative of this organization's deficiencies.

As @Kayla_86 noted, the upper deck is empty

The Twins can't sell me, and many fans, on the All-Star Game in 2014. I wouldn't be there anyway, and it's really just a few events. At some point, the Twins have to sell fans on at least a few established players purchased in free agency. I'll just say it: they need to spend probably $30 million in free agency in order to make this team competitive for 2014. They have to make at least some changes at the very top levels of management, if for no other reason than that is the way it works in the business world. The problem with the Twins, though, is that unlike most businesses, even when their "product" is awful, they still turn a significant profit. So understand that the impetus might not be there to make the wholesale changes that some expect.

There is no grand point to this post, so apologies if you are looking for it. I would, however, sum it up this way: The organization doesn't have the humility I would expect for a team that has been one of the very worst in baseball for the past 3 seasons, and I am not at all confident that losing records are sufficient -- on their own -- to force the organization into wholesale changes. As fans, I guess we are forced to hope that this solid group of prospects does indeed pan out. I have little faith in the Twins hitting a home run on each one of their Top 10 prospects.

One final note: 2013 was the first year since Target Field opened that I didn't make it there for a game. In fact, I didn't make it to a Twins game in Boston, Baltimore or New York, either. I -- not intentionally, really -- didn't purchase any memorabilia related to a current Twins player. Heck, I didn't even renew my Twins radio subscription for $21.95 (or so) a season. I guess I'm unwilling to pay for this product. In the end, while I'll pay to watch the minor leaguers any day of the week, I'm unwilling to pay to watch the Twins waste the rest of Joe Mauer's prime years.

The Justin Morneau Trade: My Reaction

I was at New Britain Stadium this morning
to take batting practice. This was the first
thing I saw upon entering the gates.

I've always been unable to separate the business side from the personal side when it comes to Justin Morneau. He's been my favorite Twins player for the better part of the last decade. I've met him a few times, I've watched him donate large sums to charity -- and organize his own charitable events, and I've watched him hit the hell out of the baseball and give 100% on the field all the time. I read every article on his concussion and rehabilitation, hoping against odds that he would come back to resemble the guy that was on an MVP pace the first half of 2010. This past month, I knew a trade was probably coming, but today my heart is still a little heavy knowing that #33 won't be manning first base any longer for the Twins. It's no understatement to say that this is the end of an era: the end of the "M & M" Era. I can acknowledge that Morneau probably wouldn't have been part of the next competitive Twins team, but that doesn't mean that I wanted to see him go.

The good news for Morneau is that he's healthy, he's been hitting for power this past month, and he's getting the opportunity to play in meaningful games for the first time in 3 years. He gets to go to Pittsburgh -- a fun, energized baseball city with one of the best parks. Hopefully, he'll play an important role for a team that has a good chance to compete in October. As much as Morneau's identity was intertwined with Minnesota and the Twins community, he's a professional athlete, and I'm sure the possibility of taking September and October at-bats in a pennant race produces a special kind of energy -- an energy he hasn't felt in several years.

But my source of frustration is that, in this trade, the Twins didn't really do anything to get better for the future -- aside from the possibility that the remaining $2+ million owed to Morneau could be spent this offseason on talent. Believe me, I completely understand that every single baseball team passed on Morneau during the waiver period. That alone is significant, and it strongly suggested that any trade return wouldn't be impressive. But if the Twins had been willing to eat part of that $2 million, could they have netted one solid prospect, rather than 28 year old fourth outfielder Alex Presley (we already have a few fourth outfielders), and Duke Welker, a righty reliever that throws hard but has control problems (note that at this time, Welker is only rumored to be the player to be named later)? Otherwise stated, my question is this: if the Twins had paid half or more of the money owed to Morneau, could they have received a better prospect from Pittsburgh? If the answer to that question is yes, then I'm disappointed with the result of this trade.

The Twins are obviously rebuilding. They haven't said it, which frustrates me, but it's happening. Part of a rebuild is that deals have to be made with the future in mind. If I'm Terry Ryan, I'm evaluating every trade with the following mindset: "Is Player X (meaning the player the Twins are to receive) likely to play a role on the next Twins team that is legitimately competing for a division title, which probably won't be until 2015 or 2016?" If the answer is "no," or if it would take a miracle for the answer to be "yes," then Ryan should go back to the drawing board. Yes, sometimes a legitimate return isn't really possible. Maybe that was the case with Jamey Carroll, in which case cash probably was an acceptable return. In fact, sometimes just having a player off your 40-man roster, and having another team take on the contract, might be enough of a return. But something was different about Morneau. Yes, he's not as good as he once was, but there is still gas in the tank. What if the Twins had let it be known that they would pay all the money owed to Morneau, but would expect a better return? It's tough for me to imagine that no team would have offered better than Alex Presley and a PTBNL.

This trade is complicated for me. I'm disappointed that I'll probably never see Justin Morneau play a game in person again. I'm sad -- as a fan -- that the M & M Era is over. I mean, these guys lived together and were practically best friends. I'm sad that Justin Morneau won't get to see good baseball in Minnesota again, when guys like Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton come up. I'm disappointed that, unless the PTBNL pans out, the Twins probably saved $2 million, but didn't improve one iota for the future. In the end, maybe Ryan did offer to pay the entire $2 million, and maybe no team had a better offer. But I can't get it out of my mind that this feels like penny-pinching Twins deals of the mid 1990s all over again.

Miguel Sano Relegated to First Base Already? You Must be Joking.

Miguel Sano for the World team at the 2013 Futures Game.
Image courtesy of me.

Last night I had a brief, and sort of strange, Twitter exchange with Tom Powers of the Pioneer Press. He tweeted "I'm still waiting for the Twins organization to hand Miguel Sano a first baseman's mitt." I replied, "Why, his 3B defense is much improved." Powers added, "It had no place to go but up, and it's still not close to adequate." Finally, I stated, "He turned 20 in May. Feels a bit early to give up on, esp[ecially] with other in-house 1B options, and T. Plouffe underwhelming w/ bat." Here's the link to the first of the Tweets. This definitely wasn't a Twitter argument or war -- I try not to get into those really at all -- but it was still very confusing to me, and I still firmly believe I'm correct.

First, let's agree on one thing: Powers is correct that Sano's defense had nowhere to go but up. Improvement was expected, for sure. But let's look at the data: Sano currently has 21 errors on the season (in 111 games thus far); in 2012 he had 42 errors in 126 games. He's playing at higher levels in 2013 than in 2012, and his fielding percentage has increased from .884 to .932. In fact, he's likely to cut his errors almost in half. Yes, that's not deep analysis, but it's something. I've watched Sano in person about 10-12 games this summer. No, he is not going to be elite defensively. But I hope if you were fortunate to watch this past week's game on FSN, you saw Sano make a fantastic play coming in on a slow roller down the line. He fielded it expertly and made a strong throw to get the runner. Yes, he still makes bad plays, but fans who think he's some kind of stone-handed giant at the hot corner are simply wrong.

Yes, Sano's defense is not where it eventually needs to be -- just like his bat is not yet at the major league level. But would the Twins really move him, at age 20, to an "easy" defensive position and give up on him playing third base, which has been a position of need for this team for many years since I have been born (excepting the Gary Gaetti and Corey Koskie years)? In one word, that sounds foolish.

Moreover, here is a short list of guys who could play first base for the Twins in 2014 that are not Miguel Sano: Justin Morneau (if the Twins got him for a year cheap); Chris Colabello (will he get a shot at a long stint in the majors starting to see if he is better than a AAAA player?); Joe Mauer (he almost certainly will play fewer games behind the plate in 2014 than in 2013, but the team needs that bat in the lineup); and Chris Herrmann (Twins fans, please pay attention: he is arguably the most versatile player on this team). The Twins certainly don't need him at first base, and that's certainly not his only shot to the majors.

Let's talk about third base depth for just a minute. Trevor Plouffe, 27 years old, is hitting .231/.292./.386 for the Twins this season. He has 9 errors in 88 games at the hot corner, and his fielding percentage at third base is .959 this season. I'd be an idiot to state that his defense isn't better than Sano's -- of course it is. But is he that much better? Will he eventually be that much better on defense than Sano might? Open question, but I tend to think that the guy who is 20, a better prospect than Plouffe ever was, and -- let us not forget -- is still learning to play third base after growing up as a shortstop -- will eventually equal or surpass Plouffe defensively. Not to mention that Plouffe's hitting has been awful this season. Finally, I should mention Deibinson Romero for a second. I like him, and he has some pop in his bat. I watched him all last season at New Britain, and he's a fun guy to follow. This season, he has a .952 fielding percentage up at Rochester, to go with a .264/.369/.418 line. He'll turn 27 next month. I'd hardly call him a legitimate prospect, but it's possible he could see major league time. Hypothetically, though, if the Twins are going to invest time and innings (while the team is bad) in a prospect that needs to improve defensively (and offensively), wouldn't you rather Sano get the chance, than Romero? In fact, I'd rather Sano get the chance at some point in 2014 (assuming continued improvement in the minors) over Plouffe.

The bottom line is this: when the Twins are next competing for a division title, Miguel Sano -- and not Trevor Plouffe or Deibinson Romero -- is going to be playing a crucial role. To give up on him at third base now, when things honestly don't matter since the reset of the team is so bad, is incredibly short-sighted.

The idea that the Twins -- headed for their third straight 90 loss season -- would give up on their second best prospect, who just turned 20, at a position of defensive importance for the franchise -- is preposterous. Perhaps Powers was trying to drum up conversation or say something provocative, but I think it came off as crazy. Yes, maybe someday, if Sano doesn't continue to improve defensively, he will become a right fielder (he does have a good arm) or a first baseman. But that day won't occur in 2013. In fact, I'd be shocked if it came before the end of the 2015 season.

2016

Miguel Sano: Probably a cornerstone of the 2016 Twins

This year's Twins are better than the 2012 edition, who thankfully were better than the 2011 edition (well, it was hardly possible to be any worse). All signs indicate that the 2014 edition will continue on that track of improvement. The trend is slow. Painfully slow. But the direction is undoubtedly correct.

I'm no expert on the Twins' minor leagues, or on prospecting in general. For the past couple seasons, though, I have seen guys come and go -- and sometimes come back again -- from New Britain. I've been fortunate to watch Joe Benson, Chris Parmelee, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Colabello, and even "new guys" like Alex Meyer and Trevor May. In the coming months, I'll watch Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario. In short, what I lack in expertise I make up in convenient geographical location.

I've been thinking a lot recently about when the Twins can next win the AL Central -- not just "compete for it" -- and what their roster might look like. My best guess for the year is 2016, and what follows is a bunch of crazy roster projections.

Keep in mind, many, many prospects don't pan out. Even guys that dominate all levels of the minors routinely fail when they get to the majors. Also keep in mind that my projections don't take into account front office moves that may (I'm cringing typing this) move a few of our best prospects in coming years. I hope Terry Ryan & Company are still in a mindset of collecting, not dealing, prospects, but you never know. With those caveats in mind, here's a position-by-position look at how the Twins are going to win the AL Central in 2016.

Catcher: Joe Mauer: He's still under contract, still catching some, and is now playing some combination of first base/DH/right field in the 50 percent of games he doesn't catch. He can still hit .300, by the way, because he's awesome at the game of baseball and his knees are getting very routine rest.

Josmil Pinto: I hope he continues to produce and grow as a catcher. There's no reason he can't be catching half the Twins' games in 2016 and batting .280 with some power while doing so. I've watched him play probably a dozen or so games, and he is a professional hitter.

Chris Herrmann: He can, at the very least, be a third catcher/outfielder. I have every confidence that he can, in time, be a .270 hitter with a good eye at the plate. An all-star -- probably not. But an affordable back-up that can call a good game, absolutely.

Third Base: Miguel Sano: He's not a gold glover, but we don't need that. He plays adequate defense and is a force to be reckoned with at the plate. As I'm writing this post, he was just promoted to AA New Britain, so rest assured the Twins are not going to let their top prospects languish in the minors. If Sano cannot hack it at third base, he can always play first. But here's a question -- when was the last time that you heard a legitimate source claim that Sano was a serious question at third? Probably the very beginning of this season or the end of last season. Clearly there has been improvement!

Centerfield: Aaron Hicks. He will continue to improve, just as he did in 2012 with the Rock Cats, and just as he is slowly doing in Minnesota.

Byron Buxton: He might be one of the top 2 prospects in baseball right now. It's crazy to type that, but legitimate writers claim that as the truth. Buxton has a long way to go before he pans out, but I have yet to read any report suggesting that he does not have the skill set to become a solid major league player.

Corner Outfield: Oswaldo Arcia. He's already gotten a taste in Minnesota this year, and I was pretty impressed. Although he slumped at the end, he didn't look in over his head, and he demonstrated why he was named the Twins' minor league hitter of the year last season. He's good now, but he'll be great in a few years.

Aaron Hicks: If Byron Buxton becomes the player we hope he becomes, he will eventually win the centerfield job, pushing Hicks to a corner position.

Angel Morales: I honestly don't know much about him, but am looking forward to finding out more. He's 23 and now is in AA.

Joe Mauer: The guy has a cannon, and is just an all-around great athlete. I predict he'll get a 20-30 games in left field or right field.

Danny Ortiz: I've really like what I've seen from him in New Britain. I'm not sure what the scouting reports say, but I saw a good arm, and his batting stats have been impressive.

Middle Infield: Eddie Rosario. Rosario is young, and is still learning to play second, but has demonstrated that he is up to the challenge. By the way, he's probably one of the best offensive second base prospects we have had since Chuck Knoblauch. As with Sano, the reports of Rosario's difficulty learning the position have subsided this season.

Brian Dozier: 2013 is a little better than 2012. His glove is better, anyway. Will he get it together? Time will tell. In any event, if he does, he'll be an affordable option in 2016.

Levi Michael: I have yet to see Michael play, so I'm hesitant to judge. I'd love to see him have a breakout second half of 2013 and turn some heads.

James Beresford: He was just promoted to AAA today. Congratulations, James! He's not a first-tier prospect, but he has an excellent glove. Can he continue to hit .300? We'll see. Beresford, however, could be a great utility infielder, as shortstop is his natural position. If he was called up to the Twins today, the bat would be an issue, but I'd put his glove right up there with anyone in this organization.

Pitching: In short, pick 5 starters from this list:

Alex Meyer
Trevor May
J.R. Berrios
Alex Wimmers
Kohl Stweart
Kyle Gibson
Logan Darnell
D.J. Baxendale
Sam Deduno
Scott Diamond
Ryan Eades

Now, add a bullpen out of guys that didn't quite make it.

This list of players, of course, is conjecture. Archives of this post will live on in 2016, and some parts will undoubtedly be laughable. Others, however, I'm willing to bet will be very accurate.

Here's the best part about this list: Every position player on it is home-grown. Every player on it will be under team control in 2016. In fact, with the exception of Joe Mauer's $23 million, there are few players on this list that would command more than a couple million dollars per season. In short, there's ample room to spend on free agents in an area of weakness. Otherwise stated, there's TONS of money on the table if the Twins want to add an extra power bat as a DH, a top-of-the-line shortstop, or an "ace pitcher" to lead our young rotation.

The other reason that I listed 2016 as the year to win the AL Central is because of the learning curve of major league baseball. If we can learn anything from watching Aaron Hicks this season, it's that there is a gigantic difference from the minors to the majors. Sano, Rosario, and even Meyer might all have tough rookie seasons. Picking 2016 gives these young guys a chance to make it through the league a couple times, learn from mistakes, and learn to succeed.

So you've heard it here first: Don't count on the Twins the next couple seasons, but by 2016 this is going to be a dominating team.

The Rise of Josmil Pinto

Contrary to what is implied here, I can report that Josmil Pinto DOES
indeed know how to wear his tools of ignorance

Twins catchers. There's Joe Mauer. Then a big, big gap. Sure, Ryan Doumit can technically sit there and intercept a pitch before it hits the umpire. But to call him a full-time catcher -- or even an adept one -- may be a stretch. Nothing against Doumit as a baseball player and hitter, but a reliable catcher he is not. And of course there was Wilson Ramos, but enough has been written on that chapter. And finally, Drew Butera. Calls a great game and has a great arm, but cannot hit his way out of AAA. Long story short, the Twins have been searching for their next catcher for quite some time.

Last season, I was on the Chris Herrmann bandwagon. And I still am, to an extent. He put together a very nice 2012, demonstrating that he could hit, he could catch, and that he could even play left field. Rightfully, he started 2013 at AAA Rochester. Unfortunately, 2013 has been rough thus far for Herrmann. He's hitting only .242/.308/.274 with 3 doubles. Yes, it's still very early in the season, and that's important to note. But it's also accurate to state that the first month-plus of 2013 has been disappointing for Herrmann. There's no reason to write him off -- he still has more than 300 at-bats to accumulate this summer -- but I am disappointed that Herrmann has been so slow out of the gate in what is a very important season for him.

This preamble brings me to Josmil Pinto. While Herrmann has struggled, Pinto has flourished. Pinto, who turned 24 at the end of March, earned an "August call-up" to the Rock Cats last season after batting .295/.361/.473 with the High-A Ft. Myers Miracle. As I've written before, Pinto didn't disappoint. In 47 Rock Cats at-bats last season, he hit a nice .298/.365/.553. It's too small a sample size to determine anything other than that Pinto did indeed belong in AA.

This brings me to 2013. Pinto has undoubtedly been the Rock Cats' best hitter. As New Britain's starting catcher, Pinto has hit .341/.414/.550 in his first 129 at-bats. He has 7 doubles, 1 triple, 6 home runs, and 29 RBIs. Here's some league-wide information on Pinto, as of the date of this post. He's 3rd in the entire Eastern League in runs with 25; 2nd in hits with 44; tied for 2nd in home runs with 6; 1st in RBIs with 29; 1st in total bases with 71; 7th in on-base percentage at .414; 4th in slugging percentage at an even .550; 2nd in average at .341; and 2nd in OPS at .964.

I should reiterate that we are only in the second week of May. Pinto has not yet been around the league that proverbial "second time." But at the same time, he's demonstrating thus far that he has improved from 2012, that he can catch a good game (he has a good arm from what I've seen, but I have heard that he needs work framing pitches), and that it's time to start considering where he sits on the Twins' depth chart.

For my Twins' catching depth chart, I'm simply not going to count Drew Butera. It's the fan's prerogative, right? Nothing personal, but I've seen enough. He's earning more than major league minimum, and the Twins have 2 other catchers that can do his job for less. So as of today, my Twins' depth chart at catcher is: Joe Mauer; Ryan Doumit; Chris Herrmann; Josmil Pinto. If Pinto keeps that average above .300, keeps hitting for extra bases -- and if Herrmann fails to correct his early season slide -- I'm prepared to switch to switch those final two positions as early as July, when Pinto more than likely will catch at New Britain Stadium as a member of the Eastern League All-Star Team.

But calling Pinto the next Twins' catcher is too simple a conclusion. Herrmann had a very good year last season, and in my opinion from having seen both catch a handful of games, Herrmann is a better receiver. There's a lot of baseball to go in 2013, and I'd like to see both Herrmann and Pinto have strong campaigns that force the Twins' front office to make a tough decision in 2014. As this team rebuilds, isn't that what we, as fans, want -- competition from qualified applicants for a spot on the team that will cost only $500,000? And competition that might make Ryan Doumit a tradeable asset this season or next?

There's a long way to go in 2013. But so far, so good with Josmil Pinto.

The Night We Almost Spilled Beer on the Big Canadian (2012 Justin Morneau Casino Night)

For the second consecutive year, my wife and I made the flight to Minnesota for Justin Morneau's Casino Night. It's a charity event for the Arthritis Foundation -- specifically, juvenile arthritis (Justin's niece suffers from juvenile arthritis). It's part of the Twins week of hope. Instead of hitting up a couple games at Target Field this year, we opted for this event instead, held at International Market Square, just a few blocks from Target Field. The Twins might not be very good this year, or even next year, but if there is one thing this organization does well, it is being active in the community and using celebrity to raise awareness and money for worthy causes. Yes, all sports teams do this stuff.

Justin Morneau appears unscathed despite narrowly
avoiding an Amstel Light

But, as I have mentioned before, good luck meeting Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez for under $1,000 per person, and good luck having a beer with David Ortiz in Boston for under $500. The Twins are accessible and in the community. In my mind, this event costs about as much as good seats to 2 Twins games, and quite frankly, I'd rather have a guaranteed good time at Casino Night.

This picture with Morneau was taken about 20 seconds after my wife accidentally knocked a full beer off the card table and onto the ground, just next to Morneau's feet. He was a good sport, mentioning that he'll forget about the the fact that his tux smells like beer until next June when he pulls it out of the plastic bag again.

\

2011 Rock Cat, 2012 Twin, Brian Dozier

This year, I've been doing a lot of Rock Cats stuff, and was looking forward to meeting Brian Dozier, whom I had watched several times last season but had never met. Yes, he's been up and down this season with respect to his defensive and offensive performances, and yes, there are going to be bumps and bruises along the way, but I do believe that he's the Twins' shortstop of the future. Also, he's an exceedingly nice human being. From speaking to loyal Rock Cats fans, I can tell you that he has not, and likely will not, forget where he came from.

I opted NOT to ask Joe Mauer about his engagement,
unlike the 10 people before me

Joe Mauer was a pretty big draw. Women, especially, wanted to congratulate him on his engagement. This was the first time that I met him in person, and I'm still shocked he doesn't hit for more power: the guy is huge -- even compared to the other players there. As you have probably read 1,000 times, Mauer was extremely nice to EVERYONE that wanted to talk to him. We spoke for about 5 minutes, and he asked me for an update on Alex Wimmers' progress after I told him where I lived and that I followed the Rock Cats players pretty closely.

It was a really fun night. The food was good, the silent and live auction items were great, the beer and wine were flowing, and most of the Twins players -- the ones you would want to meet, anyway -- were there. Here are a couple other snapshots from the night.

You know you've made it when someone designs
a logo for you

The Big Canadian giving a keynote address
Future politician?

My wife, 5 feet 2 inches (in heels admittedly),
was not dwarfed by Ben Revere

Revisiting Jose Mijares

Jose Mijares doesn't look much thinner in 2012,
but he has been much more effective.

I was somewhat surprised last winter when the Twins declined to offer portly lefty reliever Jose Mijares a contract for 2012. Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune guessed that the Twins would have ended up paying Mijares around $700,000 this season through the arbitration process. On the one hand, $700,000 isn't even 1 percent of the Twins' 2012 payroll; but on the other hand, Mijares was downright bad last season. And it wasn't just last season, either: every season since 2008 -- the year that Mijares debuted with Minnesota -- his ERA has increased (0.87; 2.34; 3.31; 4.59 in 2008-2011, respectively).

Additionally, there were other off-the-field issues with Mijares. He was never in very good shape. He reported late to Spring Training in 2010 when he was detained for suspicious hair gel in his luggage, and had missed TwinsFest that same year due to visa issues. In 2009, as the Twins were completing a historic comeback in September to win the Central division, Mijares and teammate Delmon Young almost got into a fight when Young was hit in the knee by a Detroit Tigers pitcher in retaliation for Mijares throwing a fastball behind Adam Everett. Stated Young after the incident: "I knew somebody was going to have to wear it. You can't throw behind one of their players . . . and expect nothing to happen. [Mijares] needs to pay attention to how baseball's played." Finally, in 2011, there was the incident in Milwaukee, where Mijares served up a game-winning, 2 run double to Prince Fielder, then later faulted Joe Mauer for calling for nothing but fastballs in the at-bat. In response, Mauer stated that he "didn't call for it down the middle." This last incident prompted a team meeting.

The point here isn't to go through all the negative things Mijares allegedly did in his time as a Minnesota Twin but, rather, to underscore the fact that both on-the-field and off-the-field things likely contributed to the Twins' decision to let Mijares walk. For me, aside from Mijares' 2011 ERA of 4.59, the worst thing he did was walk batters last season. In fact, he walked 30 batters in 49 innings pitched, and his WHIP was 1.694 in 2011. That's unacceptable, especially for a guy who the Twins should have been able to count on in high-leverage situations. Instead, it was Glen Perkins that assumed that role.

But if you've watched Mijares this season (like last night, for instance), playing for the Kansas City Royals, he looks more like the Mijares of 2009. I thought he was pretty darn good last night against the Twins. In 1 and 1/3 innings, he struck out 3, walked none and allowed no hits. Back on April 27 in his other outing against the Twins, Mijares picked up the win, throwing a scoreless inning and allowing one hit. After last night's outing, here are Mijares' stats for 2012: 24 innings pitched; 2.25 ERA; 22 hits; 6 earned runs; 2 home runs allowed; 5 walks; 20 strikeouts; 1.13 WHIP. ESPN states that the Royals are paying Mijares $925,000 for his services this season.

It's clear that Mijares wore out his welcome in Minnesota. He got progressively worse each season, and lost the ability to consistently throw strikes. There were personality issues, and concerns over the way that Mijares took care of his body. In short, it wasn't shocking that the Twins decided to sever the relationship. But look at how Mijares is pitching now! I'm not sure what changed; possibly it was just as simple as having a fresh start. The Twins' 2012 bullpen has been better than the starting rotation, but there's still room for improvement. As we move closer to the trade deadline, closer Matt Capps could be sought after by teams looking for late-inning bullpen help. If the Twins are in the cellar of the AL Central, it's a move I wouldn't be at all surprised to see. In that event, Glen Perkins would almost certainly take over as closer. And if that scenario takes place (I think there's a good chance of it happening), the Twins certainly could use a lefty arm out of the bullpen.

After watching Mijares have 2 good performances against his former team, and looking at his 2012 stats, which are reminiscent of the good work he did in the beginning of his Twins career, I'm wondering how the Minnesota front office feels about their decision. Again, it's tough to fault them based on Mijares' body of work over the past couple seasons, and we know that it's incredibly easy (and fun!) to cull statistics and play Monday Morning Quarterback. But it's not as if Mijares was set to make $4 million this season, or was on the cusp of free agency. So although I certainly didn't foresee that Mijares would come out of the gates in 2012 and be a reliable reliever, I still think that the abrupt parting of ways last December was a bit premature. For Mijares, my guess is that the change of scenery did him a world of good.

Interview with Twins' Catching Prospect Chris Herrmann

Chris Herrmann (courtesy of Tia Ann Chapman, Hartford Courant)

The Minnesota Twins used their sixth round selection in 2009 to draft Chris Herrmann, a native of Tomball, Texas. Herrmann transferred from Alvin Community College to the University of Miami. He had been drafted in the tenth round of the 2008 draft by the Baltimore Orioles, but did not sign. Herrmann is in his fourth season in the Twins' minor league system, currently playing for the Rock Cats. He is the team's starting catcher, but also plays left field and serves as designated hitter.

His ascension through the minor league system has been steady. He played 59 games for Elizabethton in 2009, played the entire 2010 season in Ft. Myers, and started 2011 in Ft. Myers but quickly was promoted to the Rock Cats. Last season, Herrmann batted .258/.380/.392 for New Britain, with 14 doubles and 7 home runs. So far in 2012, Herrmann is hitting .253/.309/.405 with 14 doubles and 5 home runs. As you can see, although the on-base percentage is lower, Herrmann is hitting for more power this season (the exchange of more power for fewer walks is interesting to note). He has thrown out 36 percent of base-stealers this season, and has yet to commit an error. This is notable because he has played 33 games at catcher, 11 in left field, and 1 at third base.

As I have recently mentioned, I believe that Herrmann is a candidate for promotion this season. Aside from the pitchers that the Rock Cats have sent up to Rochester this season, there haven't been many standout position players worthy of promotion. My guess is that Herrmann will probably be the first. If he can get that batting average and on-base percentage up just a little bit, I would not be at all surprised to see him in a Twins uniform this September. He's 24, he is hitting for more power this season, and he is a good catcher. Also -- and just as importantly -- there's not much depth behind Joe Mauer. Drew Butera, Rene Rivera and J.R. Towles certainly should not stand in Herrmann's way. In the best case scenario, I believe that Herrmann can take the place of Ryan Doumit next season, for about 15 percent of Doumit's salary, and make a positive difference for the Twins. Herrmann's emergence in Minnesota next season also would solve the Drew Butera problem. Finally, Herrmann is also useful because he has the ability to play the outfield when necessary, and is not a defensive liability in left field. Yes, he's not a perfect prospect, but looking at the Twins' catching depth chart, he might already be second in the entire organization. Herrmann would be a very good part-time catcher in 2013, and it's not tough to think that he could be a good full-time catcher in a couple years if Mauer makes a move to another position in order to save his knees. Before Saturday's game, Herrmann was kind enough to sit down and chat with me for a few minutes in the New Britain Stadium dugout.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Q: You're from Texas originally, so who did you watch growing up -- what were your favorite teams and players?

A: I'm from the Houston area, so growing up I always just watched the Houston Astros play, caught a few games. Got to watch them live, so that was fun. Also was a Rangers fan, liked them a lot too. Now I am Twins [fan], so that's the main team I'm focusing on and watching all the time.

I definitely looked up to [Ivan] Pudge Rodriguez a lot, especially when he was with the Rangers. I just grew up watching him -- always had his mitts. He was kind of my idol growing up.

Q: If you had to use one word to describe life in the minor leagues, what would it be?

A: Tough.

You know, we don't get paid a whole lot, our living situations aren't always great, you know it's just something you have to battle. It's hard when you have 3 or 4 roommates, you don't really get much personal time. So, it's fun, but it's tough at the same time.

Q: How do you like being in the Twins organization?

A: It's great. Everybody in the staff are good guys, and they treat you good, and I'm having a lot of fun here right now.

Q: Have you been to Minnesota?

A: Yea, my first time was Twinsfest this year, so I got to check out the Metrodome and saw a little bit of Target Field. But other than that it was cold, which I'm not really used to being from Texas. Overall it was a good experience.

Q: Last week you had consecutive games with 4 hits. Was that a first for you as a professional? [Note: in those 2 games, Herrmann was 8-for-9 with 2 doubles]

A: There's been a few times where I've gotten 4 hits in a game, but there's never been a time where I got 4 hits in back-to-back games. [Laughs.] You don't ever really see that coming.

Q: Did you feel more dialed-in, or do you think it was just a mix of making good contact and the usual luck that goes along with hitting?

A: I was definitely dialed in, and I had a few balls that I got lucky on, so that helped!

Q: Is it ever tough to focus on the day-to-day stuff. You're 1 or 2 steps away from getting the call. I can imagine you have to focus on the day-to-day stuff to get your job done, but how much do you look to the future?

A: Yea, when things are going good you tend to look to the future a little bit. I really don't like to do that too much, cause, like you said, we have to focus on our day-to-day stuff. I'm here right now so that's what I need to focus on to get to the next level.

Q: I know you've been in big league camp at Spring Training Have you talked to any of the Twins players like Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau?

A: In big league camp I got to spend a little time talking to Joe about catching stuff. He's a nice guy -- kind of keeps to himself. I talked to some other guys, too. They all treat you like you're part of the team, which is great. I hear that some organizations aren't really like that.

Q: How do you like living in Connecticut?

A: Ahh . . . it's ok. The weather's not too great. There's been a lot of rain. I feel like we had a lot better weather last year. With the rain, it's tough --- we can't get much [work] done before the game.

Q: Last question: when you close your eyes and think about it, where do you see yourself in 2 years?

A: Hopefully I'll be in the bigs by then. Obviously I gotta keep working hard. Nothing's going to get handed to me, so I have to prove myself ready for the big leagues in 2 years. That's my main goal -- keep working hard and proving to the staff and the managers that I'll be ready to go by then.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Herrmann was extremely kind, very down-to-earth, and just seemed like a nice guy. Easy to root for. I'm hoping to interview a couple other players before the season is over. I want to thank the Rock Cats, especially Jeff Dooley and Patrick O'Sullivan, for arranging this for me, and of course Chris himself, for taking a little time during what is a really busy pre-game schedule that the players are kept on.

Candidate for Promotion: Chris Herrmann

If you want to see Chris Herrmann playing
for the Rock Cats, my advice would be
to get a ticket soon

Catching depth in Minnesota is . . . interesting. In fact, I'm not sure that "depth" is the correct word. There's Joe Mauer. And then there's a pretty big drop off. Ryan Doumit can catch, technically, but he is not good defensively. And Drew Butera can call a good game, but I'll be surprised if he can hit above the Mendoza line, and most fans acknowledge that his best role is one in which he doesn't accumulate more than 250 plate appearances per season.

Over in Rochester, there is J.R. Towles, who is 28 years old and batting .183 in 21 games, and Rene Rivera, who you probably remember as one of several bad catchers that were given a shot last year. Rivera, who will be 29 in July, is hitting .193 in 28 games.

There's no perfect back-up catcher currently playing for the Twins, or on the Red Wings. Either the player is not predominately a catcher, is past his athletic prime, is an offensive liability, or is some combination of those things. All of this brings me to Chris Herrmann. Herrmann, 24 years old this season and a native Texan, is in the middle of another solid season in the Twins' minor league system. I'm just going to focus on this season and last season for reference. In 2011, Herrmann was called up to AA New Britain mid-season and appeared in 97 games. His batting line was solid: .258/.380/.392. He had 14 doubles, 5 triples, 7 home runs and 46 RBIs in that time. In 2012, again in New Britain, Herrmann started off very cool, struggling in the first month of the season to get the average above .200. But then, as with the New England weather, Herrmann heated up. As of today, here is Herrmann's slash line: .260/.310/.410, with 14 doubles, 4 home runs and 17 RBIs in 44 games. As you can see, although he has some work to do with the on-base percentage, the power has been increasing. As I mentioned, he has been playing better lately, recording 4 hits in consecutive games last week. Over his last ten games, Herrmann is .324/.405/.405 with 3 doubles and 5 walks (he has 13 walks on the season, so it's nice to see him showing more patience at the plate recently).

It's also worth noting that Herrmann has frequently stayed in the lineup on days he doesn't catch, either serving as designated hitter or playing left field. I have seen him in left field, and he did not appear to me to be a defensive liability. I'm not sure how baseball professionals would describe his defensive ability at catcher, but he seems, at the very least, solid to me. He does have a good arm.

I'm not sure how much more Herrmann has to do to earn a promotion to Rochester, or even to Minnesota. It's clear that Towles and Rivera are nothing more than minor league depth. At 24, Herrmann has a lot of baseball in his future. Clearly, there is room for improvement in his game, but I'm not certain that sticking it out in New Britain the rest of 2012 is the best thing for Herrmann's development. I've (sort of) jokingly been calling Herrmann "Mauer's 2013 backup," but he really could be more than that.

Most people reading this post are prudent enough to realize that Joe Mauer won't be catching full-time by 2014 or 2015. In Herrmann the Twins have a young catcher, capable of playing multiple positions, who has the ability to hit and get on base, and has shown more than occasional power. As much as I have enjoyed watching Herrmann at New Britain Stadium, I think it's time to see what he can do at the next level. In fact, by the end of this summer, I think it's time to see what Herrmann can do at Target Field.

That Certain Age

As an 8 year old, I couldn't understand why
GM Andy MacPhail would trade away
Frank "Sweet Music" Viola

I recently surpassed it. A couple years ago, in fact. The average age of an MLB player is 28.68 years old. I'll be 31 in a couple months. For every Jamie Moyer helping to increase that figure, there's a Bryce Harper doing just the opposite. For every Cal Ripken, Jr., that holds on for another year and tries to delay the inevitable, there's a Miguel Sano hoping to knock on the door before he turns 21. It really is a machine that, as described in Field of Dreams, has been "the one constant through all the years."

It's funny what age does to the way you view the game. In fact, sometimes I even hesitate to call MLB "the game" -- a more apt term might be "the business based around the game." I remember the day that Frank Viola was traded to the Mets. July 31, 1989. I had just turned 8, my family was at the cabin for the week, and I was the biggest Viola fan in the world. One of my parents told me the news. The 8 year old me couldn't understand the practical implications of trading away Viola for, among others, Kevin Tapani and Rick Aguilera, both of whom would go on to have excellent Twins careers. The 8 year old me didn't think in those terms, of course. To a kid, losing a good player -- right in the middle of the season, no less -- made no sense.

With the benefit of age, and hopefully a little wisdom, things are somewhat different. I'm still a fan of the game -- of the institution. The older I get, though, I realize that the players, for the most part, come and go. They are well-compensated cogs. Denard Span, for instance, has been a great Minnesota Twin: a solid player; excellent with fans; and the recipient of a relatively team friendly contract. If I was 8, I would probably be crushed if he was traded this season. As a 30 year old, though, part of me is really hoping for it because the Twins would stand to get a couple decent prospects, at least one pitcher, that could help this team for the next several years.

I find myself thinking much more about the Twins' future than I did when I was 8, or even 18. Part of that undoubtedly is because the Twins have played so bad this season, but the other part might generally just be a change in the way I think about things. As a kid, or even a teenager, all you really need is a good day-to-day approach in order to get by. Good luck doing that as an adult! If you own a home, work, or ever plan to retire, you had better be forward-thinking and sometimes shrewd in your decisions. I think that's where I am with the Twins now.

But it hasn't been a 100 percent shift from the 8 year old me to the 30 year old version. I don't go to too many Twins games, based on where I live, and I actually hadn't seen Joe Mauer play in person until 2010 (not counting when I played against him as a teenager). So I still get excited for Twins games. I still think that there are players, like Mauer for instance, that I just wouldn't want to see traded from the Twins, no matter what the haul. I have a similar feeling for Justin Morneau. And I was still pretty excited this April when Mauer tossed me a game ball at Camden Yards. Things like that don't get old.

Now, though, there are just some other ways to appreciate games. Being able to look into some advanced stats has made me appreciate certain facets of the game. As I kid I probably didn't care about anything besides home runs and batting titles. Becoming a fan of the Twins' minor league system has also been great. And I would add blogging to this list, as well: being able to communicate about baseball to hundreds of other fans is pretty cool. But part of me -- probably a large part -- is still pretty similar to that 8 year old fan who probably said some pretty awful things about Andy MacPhail in late July, 1989. The 30 year old me is just as much a Twins fan, but hopefully a little wiser, and soon will need to seriously consider wearing sunscreen on the top of his head when he heads out to a ballgame.

Minnesota Momentum and ESPN SportsCenter Coverage

Is tonight the night where Francisco Liriano puts it together?

CC Sabathia is down. In two starts this season, he has 0 decisions. In 12 innings pitched, he's given up 16 hits, 9 earned runs, 2 home runs and 5 walks, while striking out 15. His ERA in this brief stretch is 6.75. Clearly, he's looking to rebound against the Twins tonight, and for good reason: in his last 9 starts against Minnesota (including the postseason), Sabathia is 8-0 with a 1.72 ERA. So, although the Twins have the momentum going into tonight -- thanks to great games by Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Alexi Casilla, and a solid outing by Carl Pavano -- Sabathia has the momentum in the historical sense. Tonight's game, featuring lefties Sabathia and Francisco Liriano, could be very good, or it could be rough: both are capable of shutting down offenses, but both have been very hittable thus far.

As I wrote last year, I think it is possible for this team to have success off of Sabathia. I still would love to see a couple bunts (for base hits) in the first few innings tonight. Between Sabathia's bulk, and the fact that neither Alex Rodriguez nor Mark Teixeira is fleet of foot, bunting would be a great way to upset Sabathia early on. Anything that gets him off of his routine is a positive, in my book. Second, Liriano needs to bust a few Yankee hitters inside. Last night, Pavano pitched well, but you could see the Yankees waiting for those pitches that were on the outer half of the plate, without any fear that Pavano would instead go inside and upstairs to "give them a different view of the ball," so to speak. Liriano, with better velocity than Pavano, can do just that. It could be a great game tonight, like a 2-1 or 3-2 contest, if Liriano and Sabathia are both "on." Judging from past performances this season, though, my guess is that one or both are going to struggle. Hopefully it's Sabathia.

Finally, I want to formally thank ESPN's SportsCenter for their wonderful coverage of last night's Twins-Yankees game. This game featured, among other things, a gigantic Justin Morneau home run to the deepest part of Yankee Stadium, 3 hits from Joe Mauer, including hard-hit doubles down both lines, and a solid RBI single in the first inning by Josh Willingham to give the Twins an early lead. Of all those plays, SportsCenter's coverage after the game showed one of the Mauer doubles (and Alexi Casilla's nice play up the middle). They spent most of the time -- like 80% -- focusing on Derek Jeter's leadoff 351 ft. home run, Curtis Granderson's shot immediately thereafter, and -- get this -- a Jeter infield single. An infield single. A meaningless infield single in a game the Yankees lost by a considerable margin.

I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but seriously: we have Morneau trying to come back, against some pretty significant odds, to resurrect what was once a great career, and they don't even show his home run. We have Willingham, who has hit in every single game this season, and they don't show the line drive that he ripped to open up the scoring for the Twins. And there were a handful of other plays during the game that constituted Twins highlights in my opinion, but were, of course, left on the cutting room floor. I'm very, very glad I got to see Jeter leg out that single to shortstop. Thanks, as always, ESPN, for the fair and balanced coverage. And I really, really look forward to watching the Red Sox-Rangers on ESPN's Wednesday night baseball, and the Yankees-Red Sox on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.

Aaron Hicks and the Rock Cats, Twins Baseball and the Future, & the SethSpeaks Weekly Twins Podcast

Thus far, good things are coming out of New Britain

A few unrelated items this morning. First, if you missed it, yesterday I wrote about Alex Wimmers' first AA Rock Cats start that took place Monday night, and Aaron Hicks' monster game that helped give the Rock Cats a big victory. This morning, the good news coming out of New Britain, despite a 7-2 loss to the Harrisburg Senators last night, was that top prospect Aaron Hicks was 2-for-4 with another home run. That's two home runs in two days, and the latest came batting lefty, which is the weaker side for Hicks. A batting average that was a laughable .077 just a couple days ago is now .250, and Hicks is 4 for his last 8, with 5 RBIs in just two games. Clearly, when he's "on," his bat can lead a team. We're all looking for consistency from Hicks, so hopefully these past couple games are a sign of things to come. Whether the Twins decide to keep him as part of the projected 2014-2015 "new look outfield" that's easy to imagine being fantastic (with Joe Benson, too), or whether the organization eventually tries to package him in a trade for some kind of power starting pitching, it's an incredibly important season for Hicks in terms of development and career trajectory. The final Rock Cats note for this morning concerns middle infield depth. Pedro Florimon is off to a fast start for New Britain, with a .400/.429/.450 slash line in his first 20 at-bats, and has looked solid in the field from what I have seen. I don't expect too much from him in terms of what he could do for the Twins, but it's nice to see him start off hot. The Rock Cats play at 10:35 eastern time this morning. Talk about an early start! If anything newsworthy happens, I'll post this afternoon.

Second, how about those Minnesota Twins? I've barely been discussing them lately. Between the pathetic offense (except Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham) and the fact that Scott Baker is already out indefinitely, I feel like we're in for a long season. Yes, I know that 4 games is nothing, and tonight the Twins could easily start a 4-game winning streak. That's just how baseball works. But the pitching has me worried for the long-term, and that hasn't even been the weak point for this team thus far.

A lot of fans are concerned with the depth of the Twins' minor league system, and rightfully so. Here's a question for you: What if the Twins stink again this season? I don't mean winning 78 or 80 games, but more like winning 65 or 68. What if they can secure a top 3 pick in the 2013 draft? Between this year's #2 overall pick and a top selection next season, the Twins could have a rare opportunity to add top-shelf draft talent, which would complement some of the exciting players, like Miguel Sano, that are coming up through the organization.

In other words, if you agree with me that this is not a playoff team in 2012, even with a healthy Scott Baker and Joe Mauer, would you rather watch an 81-81 season, or would you prefer to see a bad season in which the team unloaded some players before they hit free agency, and was able to secure a top pick next year? It's an interesting discussion, anyway.

Finally, I was thrilled to be a guest on Seth Stohs' SethSpeaks Weekly Twins Podcast. I talked Rock Cats baseball for 10 minutes or so, and was happy for the opportunity to do so. Seth had me on right after Brian Dozier finished up. A tough act to follow! Dozier sounds like a great guy, and I believe he's ready to take over at shortstop right about now. If you didn't listen to the podcast live, you can listen any time by clicking here.

Camden Yards Recap: Twins Begin Their Losing Ways, or an Aberration?

Camden Yards from the hotel window.

Well, the baseball side of things left a lot to be desired, but you're not much of a baseball fan if you can't have a great time at opening weekend at Camden Yards. Before Friday's game, I got to say hi to veteran blogger Topper Anton from Curve for a Strike. Great guy, and it was cool to meet another east coast transplant Twins blogger. There were also several Twins fans in attendance. We sat next to the coaching staff's wives one day, and also near Josh Willingham's family another day. I also ran into a guy I went to high school with. It was a good sized, and vocal, community of Twins fans sitting near their dugout. And, as usual, the players were pretty responsive to the fans. Denard Span, especially, spent a lot of time signing autographs before Sunday's game.

So far, Morneau looks like a man on a mission to hit the
ball as hard as possible.

I'll start with the one positive from the Twins' side: Justin Morneau is, far and away, the best hitter on this team right now. A month ago, who would have thought that? I attended the Saturday and Sunday games. In those 2 games, Morneau hit 2 hard doubles (1 looked like a home run off the bat, but didn't have the height), one hard single that nearly took off the first baseman's foot, and had 2 long outs to the outfield, one of which missed being a home run by 5 feet or so. He also worked ahead in the count, and was selectively choosing which pitches to swing at. There was little of the flailing that we saw last season, and he didn't bail out on any pitches. Morneau is so locked in that, if he stays healthy, he should hit 20 home runs and at least 40 doubles.

Francisco Liriano warming up before he, and the Twins,
imploded

Saturday, Francisco Liriano looked like he was going to be great after the first inning. He struck out the side convincingly, and Joe Mauer actually tossed me the game ball as he jogged back to the dugout. That first inning, unfortunately, was the highlight of the game for the Twins. Yes, Liriano was not good the rest of the game, but I'm pegging a lot of that on the defense -- Josh Willingham, and to a lesser extent, Danny Valencia. The defense was cringe-worthy, and that, along with Liriano becoming a head-case after giving up a relatively unimportant solo home run in the second inning, undid the Twins. Like everyone else, I was expecting a lot better from Liriano. If he can't get his head under control -- against the Orioles in April -- I don't know what to do with him. Hopefully, it was just a rocky start and he'll rebound later this week. He was probably angry with his performance, and angry with his teammates. Rightfully so on both counts.

I don't have very many other positive things to say. Anthony Swarzak was decent yesterday. He kept the Twins in the game, even as they were getting no-hit into the seventh inning. Jamey Carroll looked good at shortstop, but bad at the plate. He doesn't have a hit yet, but he does run hard down to first base, so there's that. Valencia is off. He grounded into 2 double plays Saturday and, though he wasn't charged with an error in that game, have a mental lapse on a play where he should have covered third base, but did not. During infield practice yesterday, the coaches were working with Valencia. Perhaps he is on a short leash again, because Sean Burroughs started at third on Sunday, while Valencia watched. Chris Parmelee looked like a rookie out there. His at-bats weren't very good on the whole, but there's room for optimism with him.

After the small sample size, I'm left thinking that this Twins team isn't nearly as bad as they played this past weekend, but also isn't very good, either. There are going to be defensive concerns all over the place. Left field and right field could be problem areas. Willingham didn't look very comfortable in the small left field of Camden Yards -- I wonder how he will fare at Target Field? And the offense was troubling, to say the least. Baltimore's pitchers were just adequate this weekend, and the Twins made them, for the most part, look like All-Stars. Not a good way to start out. I still think this could be a .500 team, but the offense has to start clicking.

On a side note, I love Target Field, but Camden Yards is still #1 for this fan. I will say, though, that Target Field definitely has Baltimore beat in terms of concessions. Sure, we don't have softshell crab sandwiches at our ballpark, but that's about the only unique food at Camden Yards. The rest seemed to be hot dogs, popcorn and burgers. Also, it is nice having the open concourse at Target Field. We missed over an inning of Saturday's game searching for food, and it would have been nice to have had that open view of the stadium. So, in its 20 years, Camden has aged a little bit. But without Camden Yards, there's no footprint for PNC in Pittsburgh, San Francisco's great stadium, and even Target Field. Happy anniversary to the "parent" stadium for this great new generation of classic American ballparks.

After catching Liriano's third strikeout in the first inning,
Mauer looked at me as he was jogging back to the dugout.
I was wearing a "HC" hat, which is the nickname for
New Britain (Hardware City). It looks like a TC Twins hat.
He sort of pointed at me, and flipped the ball right to me
over the Twins' dugout.

Mr. & Mrs. Fan From Afar

Morneau DHing: Fine by this Fan

To say that Justin Morneau has been locked in the past few games is an understatement. How does 7-for-14 with 3 home runs and a double sound? If this was the regular season, we'd be beginning a campaign for Morneau to win the AL Player of the Week Award. Although these were only Spring Training games, his offensive performance was meaningful in the larger scheme of things. By "larger scheme," of course, I'm referring to Morneau's health. 

We learned over the past several days that what many thought about as a possibility is now a probable outcome, namely, that Morneau will at least begin the season as the Twins' designated hitter and will not be starting at first base. On the one hand, it's a little bit disappointing that the risk of further concussions is always going to factor into Morneau's assignments. On the other hand, though, at least it provides a little bit of certainty for now. We know where Morneau stands, and he's been remarkably candid. Here's just a small portion of what he said to Pioneer Press reporter John Shipley, when asked about playing first base: "Whatever's going to keep me in the lineup, and I know, I said it this spring, too, `if I'm well enough to play, I'm well enough to play first.' I think I have to say that to get myself ready to play the season, and obviously the goal is to play first and be able to, but in the end, like I said, it's going to be about being able to have at-bats. Whatever's going to allow me to have 600-plus at-bats and be healthy enough to play 162 games without, you know, playing two days and needing a day off, or whatever it is. We're not going to go through that whole up-and-down and all the rest of it. I think I can help this team by playing first, but I help us more by being in the lineup every day."

As it stands now, this could be a rare sight in 2012

I think Morneau is correct in the sense that -- if you had to choose one or the other -- his 600-plus plate appearances are more important to the club than his defense at first (though he worked hard to become a great defensive first baseman). Reading between the lines, DHing sounds like a rational decision for at least two reasons: first, as Morneau said, it will be easier on his body to only hit and not play the field; second, and perhaps more importantly, it will reduce the chances of Morneau suffering another concussion, which likely would end his career. I wonder, though, how much Morneau strictly DHing will actually reduce the chances of him suffering a concussion?

In his Twins career, of course, Morneau has suffered two concussions. The first happened in July, 2010, when he slid into the knee of Toronto Blue Jays infielder John McDonald, and the second took place in August, 2011, in a seemingly innocuous play when Morneau, playing first, dove for a ground ball. The resulting concussion was strange because Morneau didn't even hit his head on the ground, but the fall was significant enough to jar his brain to the point that it resulted in another concussion. The more we are understanding concussions now, the more we are realizing that, once a person has suffered one concussion, they are much more likely (perhaps up to four times) to sustain another concussion. 

It's a repeat of Morneau's second concussion that the Twins are trying to avoid, as well as other injuries that could be sustained while he plays the field. How about this play back in 2007, when a Nick Punto throw to first took a funny hop and hit Morneau in the nose, fracturing it. What five years ago was "only" a fracture, today would almost certainly result in a more serious brain injury to Morneau. If you count the fractured nose, Morneau has suffered three head/face injuries in his baseball career: two while playing the field and one while running the bases. 

For the sake of argument, let's say that in 2012 Morneau gets 600 plate appearances and gets on base 35 percent of the time, which would be in line with his career on-base percentage. That means that Morneau will get on base approximately 210 times. Lets subtract 25 of those times on base for home runs. So we're left with 185 times during the season in which Morneau will have to run the bases, and will be exposed to such things as line drives coming at him at first and third, having to execute take-out slides to second, diving back to first to avoid a pick-off, and possibly having to go hard into home plate to score an important run (I'm hoping the Twins caution Morneau not to try to run over the catcher). 185 times on the bases sounds like a manageable number. Add that 185 to the number of plate appearances, 600, in which Morneau will face the unlikely, but still notable, prospect of a beaning, a strange foul ball that ricochets off of home plate, or any other number of unlikely scenarios that could lead to injury. So if Morneau just serves as DH this season, we're left with about 785 times in which Morneau will put himself out there, so to speak.

In 2008, Morneau played 155 games at first, and had 1,409 defensive chances, which are defined as putouts + assists + errors. When I read that now, in light of everything that Morneau has gone through the past 20 months, all I can think is that, by avoiding playing the field -- at least for now -- Morneau is avoiding 1,409 chances of suffering another concussion. He won't have to field errant throws (even though Punto isn't around to break other of Morneau's facial bones), dive for grounders, react to 100 mile per hour line drives hit his way, catch pickoff throws from Francisco Liriano, or teeter precariously on the edge of the dugout stairs attempting to catch a foul pop-up. Chris Parmelee, Ryan Doumit and Joe Mauer can do all those things -- not as well as Morneau -- but well enough for right now to get the Twins through. That same 2008 season, Morneau had 712 plate appearances, and reached base 233 times (he hit 23 home runs, so we'll subtract that number to remain consistent). In addition to the 1,409 defensive chances, that's another 922 chances on the offensive side. In total, then, in 2008 Morneau accumulated 2,331 plays, plate appearances and times on the basepaths. Even though these calculations are rough and imperfect, you don't have to be a mathematician to see the difference between 2,331 and 785, and to understand why the Twins and Morneau, for right now, prefer that lower number. 

The other significant part of this equation -- perhaps the added benefit -- is that Morneau could have a fantastic offensive season. I have always wondered what Joe Mauer could do if he only had to focus on batting. Yes, his best value, far and away, is at catcher, and I know he likes controlling the game, but it's interesting to ponder what he could do as a "professional hitter." Morneau will have that opportunity. His knees and wrists won't be as achy, the bumps and bruises will be fewer, and I imagine he will have more time to devote to batting work and video review than he would during a traditional season. If Morneau can get into the rhythm of being a full-time DH, he could be great in that role.

As a final note, I want to talk about Morneau's value. Some fans, probably not too many that have found their way to this little blog, are going to argue that Morneau isn't worth the $14 million the Twins will pay him in 2012 and 2013 if he is only DHing. If you believe that "value" can be computed, Fangraphs indicates that, last season, when Morneau tried to make everything work, he was worth -.3 wins above replacement, and had a value of -$1.3 million. A negative value. As a full-time DH, if Morneau has a successful and healthy season, he could definitely "earn" his salary. For comparison, Red Sox slugger David Ortiz, who had a great season in 2011 (.309/.398/.554 with 29 HR and 96 RBIs), was worth $18.8 million. Morneau wouldn't have to quite approach those numbers to break even for the Twins this season.

As it stands, the Twins and Morneau have a plan that will hopefully allow him to play in almost every game, accumulate 600+ plate appearances and focus exclusively on hitting, for right now. Certainly, everything is subject to change, but this fan thinks that, all things considered, DHing Morneau is the safest -- and likely the most productive -- use of his talents. It certainly wasn't "Plan A," or probably even "Plan B," but who among us, in our personal or professional lives, hasn't had to go to "Plan C" in order to try and make things work?