Glen Perkins: My Dead Horse

My article last week suggesting that the Twins trade Glen Perkins (for the right offer) is one of the most read things I've written. Although there were only a handful of comments on this site, over at TwinsDaily there are nearly 200 comments (most of them well thought out). MLBTradeRumors also linked to the article, and it ran in the Star Tribune. In other words, more than the usual 5 found this article.

I don't have anything to compare with for this week, so I'm going to beat the Glen Perkins horse until it's dead. Here are 7 more working titles about Perkins, all in various stages of completion. If you feel so inclined, submit your own titles and I will also consider writing about them.

1) "Demote Glen Perkins."

2) "Deport Glen Perkins."

3) "How Glen Perkins is Singlehandedly Keeping Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Trevor May and Alex Meyer in the Minors."

4) "Where was Glen Perkins when Dennis Martinez Hit Kirby Puckett with that Fastball in 1995? Oh That's Interesting No One Can Seem to Account for His Whereabouts."

5) "How Glen Perkins Almost Cost the Twins the '91 World Series: Part 1 of 47."

6) "Hey, Glen: Where's Your Birth Certificate? Are you Really Even `One of Us?'"

7) "Source: `The Neckbeard is Artificial.'"

Trade Glen Perkins

Glen Perkins
(Credit: Ben Garvin)

As July comes to a close, the inevitable discussion (at least in Twins Territory) turns to what assets the team could/should part with. This season, as the team slowly but surely heads to a 4th straight 90-loss campaign, names like Kurt Suzuki, Kendrys Morales, Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia and even Brian Dozier have surfaced. But there's another player -- a guy that not as many are discussing, but who has more value, perhaps, than all those other guys combined (save Dozier): Glen Perkins.

Let's get a couple things out of the way. First, I'm a big Glen Perkins fan. He's roughly my age, and he's from Stillwater, a short, short drive from my hometown of White Bear Lake. Except for the part where we didn't know each other, we could have been best friends. There's literally nothing to dislike about this guy. Even though I disagreed with him on twitter a few weeks ago (and he actually responded to me directly like a man), he's my favorite Twin. Second, he's an elite relief pitcher. I tend to think that closers (by definition and pay) are overrated, but by any stretch, he's one of the best in the game.

As such a valuable player and elite reliever, Perkins is likely the Twins' most valuable (meaning most value on the trade market) player. Is there any reason why Perkins should be "untouchable?" No.

Some more detail on Perkins. He recently signed a relatively team-friendly (if unnecessary) extension. Here's that how it plays out. Perkins will make $4.025 million this season; $4.65 million in 2015; $6.3 million in 2016; $6.5 million in 2017; and there is a team option for 2018 at $6.5 million. Perkins can select 3 teams each season in what is essentially a very limited no-trade clause. If you're curious about a Twins-comparison, they paid Joe Nathan $11.25 to close 2009-2011 (yes, the 2009 and 2010 teams were much better, but you get the point).

With Perkins' deal expiring in 2017 (or 2018 should the team exercise the option), it's fair at this point to question whether Perkins will every have the opportunity to save an important game for the Twins. What's "an important game?" For this purpose, it's a game in August or September when the Twins are winning and within striking distance of the postseason. It won't happen in 2015. Sorry. Essentially lost seasons for Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano have pushed back the clock on when the Twins will next be competitive. I used to think the team would be fighting for a playoff spot by the 2016 season, but I don't feel that way any longer. For that to happen, I think one or both of Buxton/Sano have to be up in a Twins uniform about now-ish. Here's my best guess: Glen Perkins won't be the closer for the next Twins playoff game. Why? Either his contract will have expired, or he will have aged to the point where there are better/cheaper options. I'm actually kind of confident on this point. Unless you think the Twins (and the front office) have what it takes to quickly go from 90 losses to 90 wins, it's not going to happen the next couple years. If you haven't realized it by now, we're in the midst of a long and mostly painful journey.

As it stands, the Twins area 90-loss team. A 90-loss team does not need a proven, established closer -- especially a budget-conscious team like the Twins. The Twins have, or will have, other qualified relievers to do that job at a fraction of the price. Specifically, Nick Burdi. Yes, he's a young prospect, and yes, he could never get out of Low-A. But I (and many others) am willing to bet that, by 2016 or 2017, Burdi could be a dominating back-end reliever closing games for the Twins. And, he could do it for 10% the price as Perkins. Burdi could be 90% as good as Perkins for 10% the price. Even if you don't care about the Twins' payroll, the Twins do.  

This organization has a tough time parting with home-grown talent. And I get it. They couldn't get rid of Michael Cuddyer or Joe Nathan (not homegrown technically, but still) when there would have been at least some return. But look what happened when they bit the bullet: Ben Revere (great guy, but marginal talent) netted Trevor May, who is in the midst of a very solid season and is on the verge of joining the Twins' rotation; Denard Span netted Alex Meyer (having a not fantastic season, but is the best chance this team has had for a true "ace" in a decade). Prospects are no sure thing, but if Revere and Span can net such solid prospects (not at the trade deadline when GM's are under the gun), I have to imagine that Perkins -- a better player at his position than Span or Revere, and a "proven closer" -- could net a very good return. Remember when some team traded for Matt Capps and gave up a very good catching prospect??

Will a trade happen? Almost certainly not. Despite the fact that, as I write this, there are 14 teams within 3 games of their division lead (not to mention the additional teams within striking distance of the wild card), there seems to be no discussion about moving Perkins. Honestly, part of that blame lies with fans. We always clamor for the organization to do something, but when I brought this subject up on Twitter last night, there was some resistance. 

We as fans can't say, in the general sense, "I wish they (the Twins) would make big moves, but that's not their M.O."; and then say in the next breath, "but not Perkins. Gotta hang onto him." How about, instead: "Now is the time to break the mold that has helped contribute to what will be 4 straight 90-loss seasons from a once-proud franchise. Even though it's tough to part with good guys, I can see that this move helps with the future." It won't happen. But that doesn't mean it shouldn't.

Revisiting Jose Mijares

Jose Mijares doesn't look much thinner in 2012,
but he has been much more effective.

I was somewhat surprised last winter when the Twins declined to offer portly lefty reliever Jose Mijares a contract for 2012. Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune guessed that the Twins would have ended up paying Mijares around $700,000 this season through the arbitration process. On the one hand, $700,000 isn't even 1 percent of the Twins' 2012 payroll; but on the other hand, Mijares was downright bad last season. And it wasn't just last season, either: every season since 2008 -- the year that Mijares debuted with Minnesota -- his ERA has increased (0.87; 2.34; 3.31; 4.59 in 2008-2011, respectively).

Additionally, there were other off-the-field issues with Mijares. He was never in very good shape. He reported late to Spring Training in 2010 when he was detained for suspicious hair gel in his luggage, and had missed TwinsFest that same year due to visa issues. In 2009, as the Twins were completing a historic comeback in September to win the Central division, Mijares and teammate Delmon Young almost got into a fight when Young was hit in the knee by a Detroit Tigers pitcher in retaliation for Mijares throwing a fastball behind Adam Everett. Stated Young after the incident: "I knew somebody was going to have to wear it. You can't throw behind one of their players . . . and expect nothing to happen. [Mijares] needs to pay attention to how baseball's played." Finally, in 2011, there was the incident in Milwaukee, where Mijares served up a game-winning, 2 run double to Prince Fielder, then later faulted Joe Mauer for calling for nothing but fastballs in the at-bat. In response, Mauer stated that he "didn't call for it down the middle." This last incident prompted a team meeting.

The point here isn't to go through all the negative things Mijares allegedly did in his time as a Minnesota Twin but, rather, to underscore the fact that both on-the-field and off-the-field things likely contributed to the Twins' decision to let Mijares walk. For me, aside from Mijares' 2011 ERA of 4.59, the worst thing he did was walk batters last season. In fact, he walked 30 batters in 49 innings pitched, and his WHIP was 1.694 in 2011. That's unacceptable, especially for a guy who the Twins should have been able to count on in high-leverage situations. Instead, it was Glen Perkins that assumed that role.

But if you've watched Mijares this season (like last night, for instance), playing for the Kansas City Royals, he looks more like the Mijares of 2009. I thought he was pretty darn good last night against the Twins. In 1 and 1/3 innings, he struck out 3, walked none and allowed no hits. Back on April 27 in his other outing against the Twins, Mijares picked up the win, throwing a scoreless inning and allowing one hit. After last night's outing, here are Mijares' stats for 2012: 24 innings pitched; 2.25 ERA; 22 hits; 6 earned runs; 2 home runs allowed; 5 walks; 20 strikeouts; 1.13 WHIP. ESPN states that the Royals are paying Mijares $925,000 for his services this season.

It's clear that Mijares wore out his welcome in Minnesota. He got progressively worse each season, and lost the ability to consistently throw strikes. There were personality issues, and concerns over the way that Mijares took care of his body. In short, it wasn't shocking that the Twins decided to sever the relationship. But look at how Mijares is pitching now! I'm not sure what changed; possibly it was just as simple as having a fresh start. The Twins' 2012 bullpen has been better than the starting rotation, but there's still room for improvement. As we move closer to the trade deadline, closer Matt Capps could be sought after by teams looking for late-inning bullpen help. If the Twins are in the cellar of the AL Central, it's a move I wouldn't be at all surprised to see. In that event, Glen Perkins would almost certainly take over as closer. And if that scenario takes place (I think there's a good chance of it happening), the Twins certainly could use a lefty arm out of the bullpen.

After watching Mijares have 2 good performances against his former team, and looking at his 2012 stats, which are reminiscent of the good work he did in the beginning of his Twins career, I'm wondering how the Minnesota front office feels about their decision. Again, it's tough to fault them based on Mijares' body of work over the past couple seasons, and we know that it's incredibly easy (and fun!) to cull statistics and play Monday Morning Quarterback. But it's not as if Mijares was set to make $4 million this season, or was on the cusp of free agency. So although I certainly didn't foresee that Mijares would come out of the gates in 2012 and be a reliable reliever, I still think that the abrupt parting of ways last December was a bit premature. For Mijares, my guess is that the change of scenery did him a world of good.