Glen Perkins: My Dead Horse

My article last week suggesting that the Twins trade Glen Perkins (for the right offer) is one of the most read things I've written. Although there were only a handful of comments on this site, over at TwinsDaily there are nearly 200 comments (most of them well thought out). MLBTradeRumors also linked to the article, and it ran in the Star Tribune. In other words, more than the usual 5 found this article.

I don't have anything to compare with for this week, so I'm going to beat the Glen Perkins horse until it's dead. Here are 7 more working titles about Perkins, all in various stages of completion. If you feel so inclined, submit your own titles and I will also consider writing about them.

1) "Demote Glen Perkins."

2) "Deport Glen Perkins."

3) "How Glen Perkins is Singlehandedly Keeping Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Trevor May and Alex Meyer in the Minors."

4) "Where was Glen Perkins when Dennis Martinez Hit Kirby Puckett with that Fastball in 1995? Oh That's Interesting No One Can Seem to Account for His Whereabouts."

5) "How Glen Perkins Almost Cost the Twins the '91 World Series: Part 1 of 47."

6) "Hey, Glen: Where's Your Birth Certificate? Are you Really Even `One of Us?'"

7) "Source: `The Neckbeard is Artificial.'"

Trade Glen Perkins

Glen Perkins
(Credit: Ben Garvin)

As July comes to a close, the inevitable discussion (at least in Twins Territory) turns to what assets the team could/should part with. This season, as the team slowly but surely heads to a 4th straight 90-loss campaign, names like Kurt Suzuki, Kendrys Morales, Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia and even Brian Dozier have surfaced. But there's another player -- a guy that not as many are discussing, but who has more value, perhaps, than all those other guys combined (save Dozier): Glen Perkins.

Let's get a couple things out of the way. First, I'm a big Glen Perkins fan. He's roughly my age, and he's from Stillwater, a short, short drive from my hometown of White Bear Lake. Except for the part where we didn't know each other, we could have been best friends. There's literally nothing to dislike about this guy. Even though I disagreed with him on twitter a few weeks ago (and he actually responded to me directly like a man), he's my favorite Twin. Second, he's an elite relief pitcher. I tend to think that closers (by definition and pay) are overrated, but by any stretch, he's one of the best in the game.

As such a valuable player and elite reliever, Perkins is likely the Twins' most valuable (meaning most value on the trade market) player. Is there any reason why Perkins should be "untouchable?" No.

Some more detail on Perkins. He recently signed a relatively team-friendly (if unnecessary) extension. Here's that how it plays out. Perkins will make $4.025 million this season; $4.65 million in 2015; $6.3 million in 2016; $6.5 million in 2017; and there is a team option for 2018 at $6.5 million. Perkins can select 3 teams each season in what is essentially a very limited no-trade clause. If you're curious about a Twins-comparison, they paid Joe Nathan $11.25 to close 2009-2011 (yes, the 2009 and 2010 teams were much better, but you get the point).

With Perkins' deal expiring in 2017 (or 2018 should the team exercise the option), it's fair at this point to question whether Perkins will every have the opportunity to save an important game for the Twins. What's "an important game?" For this purpose, it's a game in August or September when the Twins are winning and within striking distance of the postseason. It won't happen in 2015. Sorry. Essentially lost seasons for Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano have pushed back the clock on when the Twins will next be competitive. I used to think the team would be fighting for a playoff spot by the 2016 season, but I don't feel that way any longer. For that to happen, I think one or both of Buxton/Sano have to be up in a Twins uniform about now-ish. Here's my best guess: Glen Perkins won't be the closer for the next Twins playoff game. Why? Either his contract will have expired, or he will have aged to the point where there are better/cheaper options. I'm actually kind of confident on this point. Unless you think the Twins (and the front office) have what it takes to quickly go from 90 losses to 90 wins, it's not going to happen the next couple years. If you haven't realized it by now, we're in the midst of a long and mostly painful journey.

As it stands, the Twins area 90-loss team. A 90-loss team does not need a proven, established closer -- especially a budget-conscious team like the Twins. The Twins have, or will have, other qualified relievers to do that job at a fraction of the price. Specifically, Nick Burdi. Yes, he's a young prospect, and yes, he could never get out of Low-A. But I (and many others) am willing to bet that, by 2016 or 2017, Burdi could be a dominating back-end reliever closing games for the Twins. And, he could do it for 10% the price as Perkins. Burdi could be 90% as good as Perkins for 10% the price. Even if you don't care about the Twins' payroll, the Twins do.  

This organization has a tough time parting with home-grown talent. And I get it. They couldn't get rid of Michael Cuddyer or Joe Nathan (not homegrown technically, but still) when there would have been at least some return. But look what happened when they bit the bullet: Ben Revere (great guy, but marginal talent) netted Trevor May, who is in the midst of a very solid season and is on the verge of joining the Twins' rotation; Denard Span netted Alex Meyer (having a not fantastic season, but is the best chance this team has had for a true "ace" in a decade). Prospects are no sure thing, but if Revere and Span can net such solid prospects (not at the trade deadline when GM's are under the gun), I have to imagine that Perkins -- a better player at his position than Span or Revere, and a "proven closer" -- could net a very good return. Remember when some team traded for Matt Capps and gave up a very good catching prospect??

Will a trade happen? Almost certainly not. Despite the fact that, as I write this, there are 14 teams within 3 games of their division lead (not to mention the additional teams within striking distance of the wild card), there seems to be no discussion about moving Perkins. Honestly, part of that blame lies with fans. We always clamor for the organization to do something, but when I brought this subject up on Twitter last night, there was some resistance. 

We as fans can't say, in the general sense, "I wish they (the Twins) would make big moves, but that's not their M.O."; and then say in the next breath, "but not Perkins. Gotta hang onto him." How about, instead: "Now is the time to break the mold that has helped contribute to what will be 4 straight 90-loss seasons from a once-proud franchise. Even though it's tough to part with good guys, I can see that this move helps with the future." It won't happen. But that doesn't mean it shouldn't.

The Twins-Rock Cats Affiliation

Close to two years ago, the Minnesota Twins and the New Britain Rock Cats extended their Player Development Contract -- the agreement that really is the "affiliation" between New Britain and the Twins, whereby the Twins send players and staff (and provide other things we don't really know about), which all takes place in New Britain. The agreement could have been for varying lengths of time, with 2 seasons being the minimum. For whatever reasons, the parties settled on the minimum 2 years. Now, here we are again, in basically the same position, wondering whether the Twins and the Rock Cats will again choose to extend their (seemingly) successful business partnership. 

For the Rock Cats, I could see them potentially wanting to make a move at some point. There's a really good resource -- here -- for tracking player development contracts across all levels of the minor leagues. A quick look tells me that, in the Eastern League (where New Britain plays), there several player development contracts set to expire after this season: Cleveland; Baltimore; Detroit; San Francisco; and Minnesota. The first question -- do any of those franchises offer anything to New Britain that the Twins couldn't? Arguably Baltimore is somewhat close geographically, but I think they have a good thing going in Bowie, MD. The rest of the organizations are pretty much just as far away from the parent club as is Minnesota from central Connecticut.

As I mentioned a couple years ago, I think the story might be different if the Yankees, Red Sox or Mets had an opening. But that isn't the case right now. The Binghamton Mets (not surprisingly affiliated with the New York Mets) are locked up through 2016; the Portland Sea Dogs (Red Sox AA affiliate who happen to play in basically a replica of Fenway) are signed through 2018; and the Yankees for all intents and purposes own the Trenton Thunder (signed through 2022). In short, I'm not sure a substantially better partner exists for New Britain than the known entity they've been dealing with for a long time.

How about for the Twins? Why the hell do they want to stay in central Connecticut? Quite frankly, unless they want to relocate their AA team to a southern city (potential 2014 openings include Chattanooga, Huntsville, Jacksonville, Arkansas, San Antonio, and more), they're probably just as well off in New Britain. Though, it's fair to wonder if the organization sees any benefit to having High-A and Double-A in the same state, namely, Florida. It's not as if Jacksonville and Ft. Myers are neighbors -- it's about a 5 hour drive -- but there could be something to having half of the full-season teams within a reasonable drive.

Even if the relationship is extended (and I suspect it will be), I do think the Twins could do a better job at a few things. First, I'd like to see them occasionally send a legitimate player here on a rehab assignment (I'm not talking about Jason Marquis or Matt Guerrier). You'd be shocked at what it does for ticket sales and buzz, especially early in the season when drawing a big crowd can be tough. Naturally, most guys on rehab assignments go to Rochester, but once a season, just a few games in New Britain by a Willingham/Kubel/Arcia/Mauer would be great. Second, I'd like to see the Twins send a former player to New Britain every now and then for an appearance. The Rochester Red Wings do this, and I think it's a great idea (truth be told, I don't know who finances this -- the parent club or the affiliate -- but my point is the same). For example, a guy like Doug Mientkiewicz, a Rock Cats and Red Sox alum, could come for an evening (forget his day job for a minute). In short, I think there are opportunities for better cross-promotion that could be mutually beneficial.

But the Twins do a great job of keeping their top prospects in New Britain for a relatively long time. Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, Alex Meyer -- all come to mind. I'd even throw in to that discussion Kennys Vargas, who's on pace for close to 30 home runs this season. And guess what -- Sano, Rosario (both for the second time), and soon-to-be-AA-player and consensus #1 prospect Byron Buxton, will all be Rock Cats players in the near future. And the pipeline is rich -- guys like Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, Niko Goodrum, etc., are on the way up. If the Rock Cats choose to terminate their relationship with the Twins, it won't be because of minor league talent. In the end, I envision New Britain and the Twins agreeing to extend their agreement. It makes sense, I don't see other, better alternatives, and the parties seem to have a good working relationship.

The Emergence of Kennys Vargas

Kennys Vargas, courtesy of Scott Blanchette

Without a doubt, the New Britain Rock Cats' most valuable offensive player this season has been Kennys Vargas. Vargas, a 23 year-old switch-hitting first baseman (destined to be a designated hitter), has been on our radar for some time, but has always been considered a work-in-progress. Yes, the raw power was always there, but the limited defensive ability, large strikeout totals and inconsistent spells kept Vargas off of some Twins top prospect lists.

After a brief adjustment period, Vargas seems to have figured out AA hitting. He boasts an impressive .304/.380/.528 line (a .908 OPS), with 7 home runs, 7 doubles and 22 RBIs in 142 plate appearances. More importantly, though, he has 23 strikeouts and 15 walks. Last season, Vargas struck out 105 times in 520 plate appearances (a 20.2 strikeout percentage). This season, the 23 Ks in 142 plate appearances constitute a 16.2 strikeout percentage. Yes, we are still in the part of the season where some may attribute this to a small sample size -- and perhaps that's somewhat warranted -- but Vargas' decreasing strikeouts are noteworthy. Over his last 10 games -- to make that sample size even smaller -- I calculate a 13.6 strikeout percentage. Vargas' walk rate -- 10.6% this season -- is up just a tic from last season (9.6%). Long story short, Vargas is putting more balls in play because he's striking out less often, while walking at roughly the same pace. As Brad Steil, Twins' Director of Minor League Operations recently said -- with the requisite Twins modesty -- "Vargas has come on the last couple weeks."

And those balls in play -- well, let's just say that Vargas' power tool is well defined. One thing that impresses me about Vargas is that he can hold his own from the both sides of the plate. This season, for example, he has 4 doubles and 2 homers from the right side of the plate (43 at-bats), coupled with 3 doubles and 5 homers from the left side (82 at-bats). So often, switch hitters are much, much better from one side, and merely adequate from their less dominant side. Can Vargas eventually bring to the Twins a power threat from both sides of the plate? If that's Vargas' ceiling, count me as a fan.

What impresses me most about Vargas' production this season is that he's doing it in a lineup that's largely barren of threats. Yes, Reynaldo Rodriguez, Danny Ortiz, Nate Hanson and Matt Koch have been dependable, but for other portions of his career, Vargas has batted in the same lineup with the likes of Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario. In other words, he's missing another power threat, and guys with elite on-base and hitting skills. So what Vargas has done thus far in 2014, he's doing without tons of assistance. Vargas will likely play all of 2014 in New Britain. I'm excited to see what happens in a few weeks when Buxton joins the team, and then a little later, when Rosario is eligible to play. What has been a somewhat drab lineup suddenly will become exciting again. And I believe that there's tremendous value to having those 3 key players hit in the same lineup together in the minors.

A few things to keep an eye on this season for Vargas: Can he keep those strikeouts down? A change in the right direction of 4-5 percent is huge. Can he keep that average near .300? 2013 was his first season since 2009 where he batted under .300 -- .267, in fact. Finally, can he demonstrate the ability to hit good pitching from both sides of the plate?

Time will tell, but 2014 has been encouraging thus far for Vargas.

Minnesota's Own Nate Hanson

Nate Hanson getting a Spring Training at-bat

Last season, Twins fans (and minor league geeks like me) hung on Miguel Sano's and Byron Buxton's every at-bat. In fact, the night I covered (and live-tweeted) Sano's New Britain Rock Cats' debut, I gained something like 200 Twitter followers. Sure, Sano is exciting -- a kid with game-changing power and an electric personality. But behind every Sano or Buxton are hundreds of players that never get the recognition they deserve.

Since I've been following the New Britain Rock Cats, my two favorite players to watch have been James Beresford and Nate Hanson. Nope, not Sano, not Eddie Rosario, not Josmil Pinto. Beresford, a superb defender, made the move midway last season to AAA, and hasn't looked back. In fact, he's been one of the Rochester Wings' best hitters in 2014. Hanson, however, was again assigned to New Britain to begin 2014. This -- along with A.J. Achter's assignment to New Britain (he since moved up to AAA) -- really surprised me, for several reasons.

Hanson, 27, is experiencing his third April in New Britain (he played the final 60 games of 2011 for the Rock Cats, and had a very brief 20-game stint in Rochester in 2013 -- otherwise it's all been Hard Hittin' New Britain since 2012). He has been the definition of a utility player, a go-to guy, a gamer, and a teammate who doesn't whine. You can pick your sports cliches, but Hanson (and Berseford, too) is an example that sometimes cliches are used for a reason. One of Hanson's best attributes is his attitude. When I asked about starting 2014 in New Britain, again, instead of Rochester, Hanson said that it was a result of the talent in the system, "and it was just how the rosters played out. I saw it as an opportunity to play every day and get my at-bats while being one of the leaders on the team." To be sure, at-bats, regardless of the level of competition, are the most important thing: no one ever gets bumped up a level because they were good in a pinch-hit situation.  

Although a natural third baseman, Hanson has seen time at first base, left field, DH, and most recently, second base. He's in the lineup every night. He does his job -- and is capable of fielding any of those positions. Regarding his super-utility status, Hanson said that "versatility is my strongest asset, and I pride myself on being a very good defender regardless of the position." As I'm writing this, I'm realizing that Hanson reminds me a bit of Michael Cuddyer, with less power. For as much as some people complained at the prospect of Cuddyer playing second base or first base, or even pitching an inning, keep in mind, the Twins needed someone to occupy those positions, and Cuddy did it, even when it took him out of his comfort zone. There's huge value to an organization in a guy who can cover several positions in a pinch and not embarrass with the bat. There's huge value to an organization when it can get through a couple games using versatile players, without having to make a roster move.

Hanson, though, is no slouch offensively. He's off to a hot start this year. In fact, he was 2-for-6 in this evening's game with a home run and a walk. In 15 games this season, Hanson has a .311 average with the homer, 5 doubles and 9 RBIs. Hanson said that he's "typically a slow starter, but feels good at the plate thus far." He also has the benefit of having "faced some familiar pitchers, so I have an idea of what they're trying to do on the mound."

So after all is said and done, what is Hanson's path to the Twins? I'm not exactly sure. One the one hand, the Twins hope that Sano quickly recovers from Tommy John surgery and is able to travel through AA, AAA an become the Twins' starting third baseman at some point in 2015. So it seems like Hanson may be blocked at third base in the long run. On the other hand, though, there are so many paths for a guy that can play 4 defensive positions. First things first, though: Hanson deserves an extended opportunity to play every day in Rochester. I hope it's sooner than later, but it is warranted.

If Hanson hits AAA pitching, I think he's a great candidate for a Twins' bench role. As the MLB season drags on, injuries always mount for the big club. So often, the Twins' bench options have either been defensive specialists with no bat, or guys that can hit but cannot field (Jim Thome 2011 comes to mind -- loved the guy, but it was always a tough situation when he'd come off the bench in a big situation, draw a walk, then have to be taken out for a pinch runner because he couldn't run or field). A player like Hanson (or even Beresford) bridges the gap between a typical "defensive specialist" and a limited "bench bat." Whatever his future, though, Nate Hanson will continue to conduct himself as a professional. In fact, the Rock Cats awarded him their annual "10th Player Award" at the end of last season.  Minnesotans should be proud to say that Nate Hanson is "one of their own."

A New Britain Travel Guide

This is where I generally sit
at Rock Cats games.
Come join me.

Every now and then, I'm asked by someone over Twitter or email about traveling to see a Rock Cats series. Usually the questions are pretty basic -- what airport do I fly in to, do I have to buy tickets in advance -- but sometimes the questions are more detailed. I'm always happy to give information, and in fact I've even met up with a couple "displaced" Twins fans at New Britain Stadium. I thought it might be helpful to give some information and provide links in the event that people reading this blog might want to see Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and the rest of the gang before they wear Twins uniforms. So what follows is a quick guide to seeing the Twins' AA team.

Getting There: First, I should tell you where New Britain is. It's roughly in the middle of Connecticut, approximately 10 miles southwest of Hartford (capital city), and 30 miles north of New Haven. If you're coming from Minnesota, you'll be flying. If New Britain is your only destination, you'll probably fly into Bradley International Airport, which is located north of Hartford. If you are planning a larger east coast trip, you can definitely fly into Boston or New York, and drive to Connecticut -- I'd say roughly 2 hours from New York or Boston. In addition to air travel, there is also the Metro North Railroad, a commuter train between New York and either New Haven or Hartford. It won't take you right to New Britain, so you'd have to rent a car, but it can get you pretty close. Finally, there are bus services, such as Peter Pan, that transport around New England.

Lodging: Admittedly, I haven't really stayed at any of these places. I live about a half hour from Rock Cats Stadium, and am fortunate that my office is only about 10 minutes away from it. If your goal is to stay as close as possible to the stadium (we'll talk about that in the next paragraph), there is a La Quinta Inn 2 miles away from the stadium. If you don't have a car you can probably catch a ride with Byron Buxton or something.

I'm going to recommend that you stay in Hartford. Hartford isn't a magical city by any means, but it is small, there are great restaurants (see below), and it's only a 15 minute drive to New Britain. There are several good hotels -- The Marriott Downtown, The Hilton Hartford, and the Homewood Suites by Hilton, just to name a few of the reliable ones.

You could also stay in New Haven, which is closer to New York City and home to great pizza and Yale University, but that's a bit of a hike to New Britain.

Finally, it's also worth noting that there are several smaller hotels and B & Bs in the Hartford suburbs that are within a half hour of both Hartford and New Britain. If that's more your style, check out West Hartford, Farmington, Avon, and Simsbury (my town). If you're looking for an authentic "New England Weekend" experience, this is a good option.

Eating & Drinking: If you're at all like me, you like local food and drink when you're traveling. In and around Hartford, there is a great restaurant group called the Max Restaurant Group. Over the years, I've been to almost all of their restaurants. They are not cheap, but hey, you're on vacation and are "only" paying minor league ticket prices. All their restaurants are distinct, but I've never had a bad experience, and the food is always great. There is an authentic German restaurant right in New Britain, called East Side. I've never dined there, but have had their food multiple times at catered events -- and it's great. It seems like the kind of place where you'd have to really work to not have a fun time. Another place, just a half mile from the stadium, is Portofinos Italian Restaurant. I've never been there, so I can't recommend it, but maybe it's worth a try. Here are a few other Hartford restaurants I wholeheartedly recommend: Firebox; Salute; La Kerencya (Peruvian!); Franceso's. Honestly, for a small city, you can really find anything you want in/around Hartford. I have a bunch more spots that I enjoy, but this is a good beginning list.

Now on to the beer and wine. I'm lucky in that the greater Hartford area has a couple wonderful breweries/brew pubs, and wine bars. My favorite local brewery is the Thomas Hooker Brewery, located in Bloomfield, about 5 miles north of Hartford. Also in Bloomfield is a relatively new brewery, Back East Brewing Company. Both places offer tours and samples, but are strictly breweries -- no food/brewpub atmosphere. But if you are looking for brewpubs, I have two places -- City Steam (right in Hartford and basically connected to the Homewood Suites), and The Cambridge House, in Granby, CT (about a half hour away from Hartford, but worth it). If you like wine, like I do, I'd strongly recommend Bin 228, a very affordable wine bar right in Hartford. Also, Max Downtown has (arguably) the best wine list in Hartford.

Hey, What About Baseball?: Oh yea. You want to watch some baseball! I can help you there. New Britain Stadium, home of the Rock Cats, is easy to find. It's right off a pretty major highway (Route 9). Parking is $5, or $7 for VIP (right next to the stadium entrance). Cash only, of course.

The stadium itself is nice. Nothing too fancy, but it's not "old" by MiLB standards, having opened in 1996. The Rock Cats do a very good job there. The tickets are affordable. If you're going all the way out here, I'd spring for the good seats. In my opinion, those are the $17 "Club Seats" located right above the home and visitor dugouts. What I like about these seats is that they are so, so close to the action that you can hear the guys talking, but also you're not obscured by the netting that wraps around behind home plate. Bring a glove, though, or at least a friend you can use as a human shield if necessary. Most of the "Field Box" level seats are great, as well. And to be perfectly honest, there really isn't a bad seat -- there's only like 7,000 of them to begin with, and you can get in the gates for $8. My seat is above the home (first base) dugout. The plus is that I can hear and see the Rock Cats players during the game as they goof around. The negative part is that the first base side, in the summer, gets the evening sun, and can get uncomfortably hot. So if you need a little shade, I'd recommend the third base/left field side of the ballpark.

Food & Drink @ the Ballpark: I'd recommend the grill located in the upper deck behind third base. The hot dogs, sausages, etc., are better (even if a dollar or so more expensive) than the normal concessions. Additionally, every Thursday there is a Sam Adams Happy Hour before the game, where Sam Adams drafts are $1 off in that upper deck/left field part of the stadium. Otherwise, you can't go wrong with Long Trail drafts (in a concourse kiosk more or less behind home plate), and the basic hot dog/nachos/peanuts available everywhere. I'll admit to having had, and enjoyed, the chicken fingers and fries, in a pinch.

Autographs & Related Stuff: Because I have a press pass, I don't ask the players for autographs. But I can tell you, generally, that they are very accommodating. I saw Miguel Sano sign endlessly on one of his off days last summer. And as a rule, the Twins make sure that their minor leaguers treat fans well. Of course, they cannot sign during games, but I have seen fans catch the guys on the way back to their cars after the game is over.

Summary: Connecticut probably isn't the coolest state in the Union, and Hartford is no Boston on San Francisco. But there is a lot going on here. I've neglected to mention that the entire New Haven area is on the ocean and full of beaches, that there is an area in Massachusetts (about an hour north of Hartford) that is comparable (though not as great IMO) as "Lake Country" in northern Minnesota, and that you could even make it to Philadelphia in 4 hours, give or take, to watch the aging Phillies demonstrate how to really ruin an organization. If you come for a Friday-Sunday Rock Cats series, there's plenty to do within 20 minutes. If you choose to spend a week here, you'll need to expand your horizons a little, but it really is a great part of the country.

If anyone reading this decides to travel to CT for a Rock Cats game or series, please drop me a line. If I'm around, I'm happy to meet up at the stadium. Beers on me!

Anyone who has been to New Britain, please comments for places I've neglected to mention!

(Please note: I don't do get any revenue from this blog, or from linking to or mentioning restaurants or other businesses. These links are just my own personal opinions, and I'm a normal paying customer at all of these places.)

Prognosticating: 2014 Rock Cats Opening Day Lineup

There's a pretty good chance the next player added to this
wall of Rock Cats' alums will be suiting up for
them in 2014

It's one thing to predict an Opening Day lineup after things begin to shake out in Spring Training. It's another to do it a full month before pitchers and catchers arrive. So in the spirit of good fun, what follows is my January 26, 2014 prediction for the New Britain Rock Cats' Opening Day lineup. As you can see, the first several spots in my batting order pack a little punch. Between guys like Byron Buxton and Danny Santana that hit and have speed, and guys like Miguel Sano and Kennys Vargas (throw in C.J. Ziegler, too) with power, this is an offense that should score some runs. Danny Ortiz and Matt Koch are no slouches, either!

Predicting the Opening Day starter is more or less impossible. Part of me wants to say Alex Meyer. I don't think there's any way he's joining the Twins to begin 2014, but the real question is whether his injury-plagued 2013 regular season temporarily stunted him. In other words, I tend to think that both Meyer and Miguel Sano could start in New Britain, but would be eligible to be promoted after just a month or so. If he's in New Britain, Meyer should be the Opening Day starter. But I'm going to predict that Meyer will join Trevor May and start 2014 at AAA Rochester. Instead, I think D.J. Baxendale, who was unstoppable at High-A Ft. Myers, but struggled considerably in New Britain, will get the nod. This is a big year for him.

1. Byron Buxton (CF)

2. Danny Santana (SS)

3. Miguel Sano (3B)**

4. Kennys Vargas (DH)

5. C.J. Ziegler (1B)

6. Daniel Ortiz (LF)

7. Mike Kvasnicka (RF)

7. Matt Koch (C)

9. Levi Michael (2B)

Pitcher: D.J. Baxendale

**This particular pick involves a little of my own personal bias. Let me explain. Part of the bias is because I want to see him play a few more games at AA because, well, that's where I go see baseball games. The other part is my opinion (admittedly, not a scout's opinion) of his play last summer. There was still work to be done on defense, and I really want to see him become even more willing to take a walk (I recall several at-bats where he'd swing at a questionable -- not hitters -- 3-and-1 pitch, when it very likely would have been ball 4). Can he make those improvements during Spring Training and at AAA? Certainly. Is there a little less stress for him to do it in New Britain? Perhaps. Finally, his health is still a question. Yes, all indications are that his elbow is in much better shape, but I'm not ready to believe that until I see him in the field throwing bullets to first base without effort. I'll be happy with any decision, aside from sending him to Minnesota to begin the season.

In the end, I bet I'm about half right on the players. Buxton, Vargas, Ziegler, Ortiz, Koch, Michael, seem locks.

So, where do you think I was right, and where'd I go wrong?

Podcasting: Rock Cats, Twins & More

I've only done a few podcasts in the couple years that I've had this blog, but it's a lot of fun to do. Last night, Travis Aune, keeper of Texas Twins Fan, was nice enough to invite me on his weekly podcast. We talked for almost an hour. You definitely have to listen to it, but topics ranged from the Yankees' signing of Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, to Twins' free agent signings, and a whole bunch of Rock Cats stuff. Check it out here:

Minnesota Sports Weekly 01/22 by The Odd Couple Talk Twins0 | Baseball Podcasts

One nice thing about doing this podcast was that it really got me thinking about the 2014 Rock Cats roster. I did an hour or so of prep work before (so I would sound like less of an idiot), and I have to say, I'm excited about this upcoming New Britain team. Yes, some of these predictions are more guesses than they are reasoned projections, but here's a short list of guys that are likely to see time in New Britain this coming season: Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana, Eddie Rosario, Levi Michael, B.J. Hermsen, D.J. Baxendale, Daniel Ortiz, Matthew Koch, Matt Summers, Ryan O'Rourke, Taylor Rogers, and here's one more -- Alex Wimmers. It's an impressive list of guys that should see some time in central Connecticut, either all or part of this season.

There's snow on the ground now in New Britain, but
Opening Day is just over 2 months away.

I'll leave you with one more item (I mentioned it on twitter today): It's possible (perhaps not probable) that the first 4 hitters on New Britain's Opening Day lineup could be Byron Buxton, Danny Santana, Miguel Sano, and Kennys Vargas. Imagine for just a second if Eddie Rosario was active!


If you're a Twins or Rock Cats fan (well, you probably are since you've read this far), make sure you give Travis and I a listen tonight, tomorrow, or over the weekend as you go about your chores. Spring is right around the corner!

Rock Cats Hot Stove Luncheon 2014

The cookie behind the program
was really good.

Here's some good trivia: In 2013, 9 former Rock Cats players made major league debuts: Caleb Theilbar; Josmil Pinto; Oswaldo Arcia; Aaron Hicks; Chris Colabello; Michael Tonkin; Kyle Gibson; Andrew Albers; and Brock Peterson. With the exception of Peterson, who saw some time with the Cardinals, the other 8 players wore Twins uniforms. I've been attending Rock Cats games for about 6 years, but only have been following them seriously for 3 years. That being said, I watched each of these guys play, and, of the guys on this list, have had good conversations with Colabello and Hicks. The truth is, when the major league club struggles, like the Twins have, there isn't much between AA and the major leagues. That was kind of the theme of today's Rock Cats Hot Stove Luncheon.

Brad Steil, Twins Director of Minor League Operations, was today's keynote speaker. He was . . . very Minnesotan. Kind, soft-spoken. For instance, describing the 2013 Twins starting rotation, he said (not deadpanning like Terry Ryan or Gardy might), "we struggled a little bit." Not surprisingly, he's big into Byron Buxton, promising Rock Cats' fans that they will see the promising prospect at some point in 2014. Steil also noted that many believe Buxton has the best arm in the entire Twins' system. That's pretty impressive, especially when coupled with all his other tools. Other players Rock Cats' fans should expect to see in 2014: Kennys Vargas; Taylor Rogers; Matt Summers; Ryan O'Rourke; Reynaldo Rodriguez. Steil mentioned that about half of the 2013 team likely is returning this upcoming season.

One thing Steil said that annoyed me -- and he basically opened up his keynote with this: "We're not a big market team. You're not gonna see us handing out a $100 million contract." True statement -- yes and no. The Twins aren't big market like the Yankees or the Red Sox, but they sure as hell aren't small market, and I simply hate that Metrodome Mindset (did I just coin that?). Steil's larger point  -- which is true -- is that the Twins' talent comes predominately from the farm system, and that New Britain is arguably the most important stop on the path to Target Field. Bill Smith said the same thing 2 years ago regarding the importance of New Britain. I think it's mostly true. On the other hand, it kind of reminds me of when you go to a concert, and the lead singer says something like, "We love you, North Dakota! Fargo is our favorite city to play!!"

I have some breaking Miguel Sano news to report: There will be a Miguel Sano bobblehead at Rock Cats Stadium in 2014. Oh. You were looking for actual news, like about Sano's elbow or where the Twins will have him start in 2014?? I don't have anything related to that. In fact, apart from raffling off a Sano autographed picture, he wasn't even mentioned in this luncheon. It's clear the entire organization is holding their cards close on this issue. I'm going to be 100% shocked, even if Sano has a great Spring Training, if he starts 2014 in Minnesota.

New Englander Chris Colabello
addressing the crowd

A couple small takeaways from today's event: First, I think the Rock Cats will be better in 2014 than they were in 2013. I expect several of last season's Ft. Myers Miracle roster to be up in New Britain for a good chunk of this season. Those guys put up some pretty good offensive numbers. As always, though, the other key is going to be pitching.

Second, I think the both organizations are happy with the relationship in New Britain. The player development contract (essentially, the agreement the Twins and the Rock Cats have to partner as affiliates) is set to expire after the 2014 season. In June, 2012, the parties agreed to this current extension, but only for 2 years -- the minimum possible number of years. In those couple seasons, Smith has done essentially what he is hired to do: prepare talent for the next level. Yes, Hicks, Gibson, Arcia and others have struggled at the major league level, but that can hardly be blamed on the AA coaching staff. "They sure looked good when they were here," I recall saying. The other question is whether New Britain is happy with the relationship, or has better options. As I've mentioned before, the other regional teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets) are all locked into long-term player development contracts. Yes, there are other openings (Cleveland, Baltimore, Detroit, Giants) after the 2014 season, but it's tough to imagine what any of those organizations would offer New Britain that Minnesota wouldn't. Additionally, the Twins are pretty good about sending talent (Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Meyer, etc.) to New Britain, including players once or twice a season on rehab assignments. I'm biased, of course. I enjoy writing this blog, and if the Rock Cats component vanishes, I don't know ....

Finally, Chris Colabello. He drove down from Massachusetts (as did Ryan O'Rourke) to speak to the crowd. Both were funny, sincere and professional speakers. Colabello's speech reminded me how great his story was. 7 years in independent baseball. 7 years! He was 29 when he made his debut, and it took a perfect storm of success in the Independent League, a need in the Twins' system for organizational depth, Colabello's own dominance at AA and AAA, and a struggling big league team, for it to happen. Obviously, with Joe Mauer expected to play "150-160 games" at first base this season according to Steil, Colabello's future in Minnesota is uncertain, at best. But you know what? I'm not ready to write him off yet. He has come this far. For every Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano, there are literally hundreds of Chris Colabellos. And that might be the best part of minor league baseball. You just never know.

Miguel Sano Dingers: The Videos

Sometimes there just isn't much to say. The World Series has been exciting, I guess. The Twins aren't in it. Rather, they're in a state of flux. More on that forthcoming later this week or early next week.

Instead of trying to write something clever, angry, or prescient, I figured I would just embed a bunch of videos of Miguel Sano dingers. So here you go. As I would say on twitter, #FutureTwins and #PowerBanana

2013: A Postmortem

Yes, I am aware that there are a couple weeks left in the season. But the Twins are dead. Dead as a door-nail. And they've been that way for months (years?). Shortly after this season comes to its pitiful end, the Twins' brass and field personnel will assemble, as they do every year, in Ft. Myers, for the organizational meetings. Among other topics, they will dissect the 2013 season, and what exactly caused this year's ineptitude.

Ron Gardenhire: 2002

If Terry Ryan, Ron Gardenhire or Dave St. Peter needs to do some cramming on the Delta flight down south, what follows is a short(ish) list of causes for this season's horrid, embarrassing play. Make no mistake, this is not an exhaustive or detailed list. And I'm not adding very many stats this time around (it's 2013: if you need statistical support for my proposition that Darin Mastroianni wasn't spectacular offensively, check out any number of websites). Without further ado, and in no particular order of importance, here are my Cliff's Notes for the 2013 Twins Organizational Meetings.

1. Aaron Hicks was Not Ready for Primetime

The Twins made good trades, getting (potentially) quality arms for centerfielders Ben Revere and Denard Span. By getting rid of Revere and Span, however, the Twins' thrust Hicks into the spotlight. To be sure, he put on a good show at AA in 2012, and was dominant in Spring Training in 2013. But we know now -- hindsight being 20/20, of course -- that he was not ready for the major leagues. Yes, he had flashes of brilliance offensively, and was solid defensively, but this was too much, too soon, for Hicks, evidenced by the fact that he didn't earn a September call-up, and that the Twins selected a replacement-level centerfielder, Alex Presely, when they traded Justin Morneau to the Pittsburgh Pirates last month.

2. Low Power in the Middle of the Order

Josh Willingham, who had a career year in 2012, was injured for a significant part of 2013, and his power numbers dwindled. He'll end up at around 15 home runs, and will be lucky to get 55 RBIs (last season, on an equally bad team: 35 dingers, 110 RBIs). Justin Morneau was serviceable, but also lacked the power that Twins fans enjoyed for the better part of a decade. Joe Mauer was good before his concussion, but his "power numbers" (dingers/RBIs) weren't high, mostly because no one was on base in front of him. In short, the guys that were penciled-in as the Twins' 3-4-5 hitters didn't do the damage that was expected. Make no mistake, RBIs are very much a team stat -- so perhaps it's more appropriate to say that the Twins as a whole under-delivered in giving the meat of the order opportunities to do damage.

3. Starting Pitching was Disgusting

Terry Ryan got what he (while spending Pohlad family money) paid for. It makes me physically ill reciting Twins' starting pitching stats from this season, so I'm not going to. But it's basically what you would expect: way too many hits, way too few strikeouts, way too few guys getting deep into games, and a batch of guys that probably wouldn't deserve more than a "cup of coffee" at the major league level being given multiple starts with the Twins this season. One thing to note: Vance Worley -- who projected to be not fantastic, but serviceable, failed this season. I didn't see that coming, and it's probably not fair to blame the front office for that (but note, at the same time, that Trevor May -- a better pitcher under team control for more years -- was the larger piece in that trade as far as the future goes).

4. Trevor Plouffe Showed Little Improvement

The Twins have given Plouffe, now 27, every chance. I know -- he showed great promise last season (I was at one of those games last July where he was just on fire, and it was exciting). But so far, those couple months have been, more or less, a flash in the pan. Although his average is a little higher than it was last year (.252 to .235), the OPS is lower, the defense isn't as solid as the team would like, and I'm not even sure how dedicated Plouffe is to the game (not my opinion -- based on a smattering of articles/tweets the past couple seasons from those "in the know"). With Miguel Sano on the rise, 2013 would have been a good season for Plouffe to establish himself as the Twins' starting third baseman to beat. Now, I expect the competition will be on in March, 2013. Sure, Plouffe will be better defensively than Sano, but will Plouffe be able to compete with Sano's power, and, equally as important, Sano's desire  -- desire to succeed, to improve on defense, to be an All-Star?

Ron Gardenhire: 2013

5. No Help from the Top of the Order

Aaron Hicks failed to get on base when the Twins gave him lead-off hitter duties. Here are some other guys that hit out of the 1-hole this season: Clete Thomas, Eduardo Escobar, Jamey Carroll, Alex Presley (and Brian Dozier, who really hasn't been bad in that position, but is an ideal 2-hole hitter). Not quite Denard Span-esque, huh? It's tough to give Dozier (when he's batting second, that is), Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Oswaldo Arcia and Ryan Doumit the opportunity to do much damage with that rather pathetic crop of players occupying what is supposed to be a high on-base percentage spot in the lineup.

6. Little Assistance from the Farm

Long story short, when the Twins really needed talent to come up from their farm system and produce, they didn't get results. Yes, there were bright spots. In fact, I'm sure every guy called up this season performed well at some point. But in the aggregate, it was insufficient. Hicks, Kyle Gibson (remember the "Free Gibson" movement?), Chris Parmelee, Chris Colabello (I hesitate to even put him here -- I'm a big fan, he performed so well at New Britain and in Rochester, and he's been up-and-down so much in 2013 that the Rochester-to-Minneapolis flight attendants probably know him by name -- but I've been let down), and Oswaldo Arcia (who started off well, and is doing all right now, but had a horrid stretch that resulted in a demotion to AAA) haven't given the Twins the boost they needed this season. And I'm not going to mention the rest of the pitchers (but I am glaring at Liam Hendriks, and he knows it).

7. No Top Prospect Forced their Way Up

Don't get me wrong. Miguel Sano had a great, great season. He exceeded expectations. But in the end, he didn't deserve a call-up -- unless you believe his call-up would have been just for the fans this season (not an unreasonable proposition, by the way). Sano slowed down at AA, and was inconsistent (though powerful and exiting). Trevor May was stable, in the sense that he was uninjured, but was never good enough to warrant a promotion to AAA, much less the Twins. And the best pitching prospect, Alex Meyer, was limited because of injuries, thus never even entering the equation for a mid-or-late season promotion. I need to be measured in my observations, because Sano and Meyer were very, very good, and May did improve. But make no mistake, none of these guys really forced Terry Ryan's hand when it came to a September call-up. Accordingly, they were unable to breathe life into the dead MLB team. But maybe that's for the best. I'm not sure I want Miguel Sano's first game to be one where Mastroianni is batting leadoff and one where the Twins are about to lose their 90th game of the season in front of an "in-the-stands" Target Field crowd of 8,000.

The end results: The Twins stopped playing meaningful games back in May or June. Again. Payroll decreased. Again. The Twins sold off an asset (Morneau). Fans stopped coming in person to the ballpark like they used to (even if they had paid for tickets in advance).

There is hope in sight (a very good farm system), but I am not at all convinced that the talented prospects, alone, will bring relevance to this organization.

As I mentioned, this was a non-exhaustive list. Please, leave a comment. Add your thoughts on what else factored into the Twins' failures this season.

Thanks for reading.

2013 Rock Cats MVP: Josmil Pinto

Rock Cats, Red Wings, and now Twins catcher,
Josmil Pinto

I'll be the first to admit that the bulk of my Rock Cats coverage this season has centered around Miguel Sano. And it's for a reason -- he's the best prospect that has played for New Britain since I have been following the team. People were interested in watching grainy videos of his #PowerBanana shots, and were curious about his defensive progression. Also, he's simply an electric personality. Trust me, you'll experience it firsthand in Minnesota next season. But there was much more to this team than Sano. And in my opinion, Sano wasn't the team's most valuable player, even in the months he was here. That honor belongs to Josmil Pinto.

What a 6 months it's been for Josmil Pinto. He started in April as the Rockcats' everyday catcher, and produced offensively and defensively. In fact, he hit .308/.411/.482. Watching him in person several games, it wasn't just his line drive swing that impressed me. He is a decent catcher with a very good arm. He was promoted on August 1 to AAA Rochester. That alone is a significant accomplishment. But Pinto didn't slow down. He continued to excel as a Red Wing, hitting .314/.333/.486, and is now a member of the Twins. He'll see significant playing time behind the dish, I expect, as the Twins would be wise to exercise caution with Joe Mauer.

The Twins gave Pinto at least 2 major votes of confidence: first, giving him 2 in-season promotions; and second -- and just as important -- trading Drew Butera at the deadline. These moves suggest that, between Chris Herrmann and Pinto, the Twins' back-up catching spots are covered.

To be sure, many guys offered great contributions this season in New Britain. Miguel Sano, Danny Santana, Trevor May, Michael Tonkin, Daniel Ortiz, Alex Meyer (pre-injury), and Nate Hanson (played all over the field very well) all come to mind. But none of these guys was as valuable on both sides of the ball, and was as consistent, as Pinto. He hit over .300, had a good K-to-walk ratio, showed good power, and continued to improve on defense. Yes, he still has a ways to go on the defensive front, but it won't stop him from being able to contribute to the Twins this September and next season. And in my opinion, the fact that he left the Rock Cats the last few weeks (give or take) of the season wasn't significant enough for another of the guys previously listed to trump his place.

Being completely honest, my decision is swayed in part by Joe Mauer's concussion. The concept of "most valuable" is subjective. I happen to see more "value" in places where it's needed. A prospect's value isn't tied solely to his current team so much as it is to the organization as a whole. In the Twins' present situation, we might see more value in prospects at shortstop, third base, starting pitching (ouch) and catcher, especially considering Mauer's advancing age and the recent concussion. In short, Herrmann and Pinto will need to step up. If not in 2014, then in 2015. The fact that Pinto has taken major strides this season, while Herrmann had, for the most part, a rough go of it, reinforces that Pinto is going to get the shot to prove himself at the major league level.

Congratulations, Josmil Pinto, on one hell of a season.

Miguel Sano Relegated to First Base Already? You Must be Joking.

Miguel Sano for the World team at the 2013 Futures Game.
Image courtesy of me.

Last night I had a brief, and sort of strange, Twitter exchange with Tom Powers of the Pioneer Press. He tweeted "I'm still waiting for the Twins organization to hand Miguel Sano a first baseman's mitt." I replied, "Why, his 3B defense is much improved." Powers added, "It had no place to go but up, and it's still not close to adequate." Finally, I stated, "He turned 20 in May. Feels a bit early to give up on, esp[ecially] with other in-house 1B options, and T. Plouffe underwhelming w/ bat." Here's the link to the first of the Tweets. This definitely wasn't a Twitter argument or war -- I try not to get into those really at all -- but it was still very confusing to me, and I still firmly believe I'm correct.

First, let's agree on one thing: Powers is correct that Sano's defense had nowhere to go but up. Improvement was expected, for sure. But let's look at the data: Sano currently has 21 errors on the season (in 111 games thus far); in 2012 he had 42 errors in 126 games. He's playing at higher levels in 2013 than in 2012, and his fielding percentage has increased from .884 to .932. In fact, he's likely to cut his errors almost in half. Yes, that's not deep analysis, but it's something. I've watched Sano in person about 10-12 games this summer. No, he is not going to be elite defensively. But I hope if you were fortunate to watch this past week's game on FSN, you saw Sano make a fantastic play coming in on a slow roller down the line. He fielded it expertly and made a strong throw to get the runner. Yes, he still makes bad plays, but fans who think he's some kind of stone-handed giant at the hot corner are simply wrong.

Yes, Sano's defense is not where it eventually needs to be -- just like his bat is not yet at the major league level. But would the Twins really move him, at age 20, to an "easy" defensive position and give up on him playing third base, which has been a position of need for this team for many years since I have been born (excepting the Gary Gaetti and Corey Koskie years)? In one word, that sounds foolish.

Moreover, here is a short list of guys who could play first base for the Twins in 2014 that are not Miguel Sano: Justin Morneau (if the Twins got him for a year cheap); Chris Colabello (will he get a shot at a long stint in the majors starting to see if he is better than a AAAA player?); Joe Mauer (he almost certainly will play fewer games behind the plate in 2014 than in 2013, but the team needs that bat in the lineup); and Chris Herrmann (Twins fans, please pay attention: he is arguably the most versatile player on this team). The Twins certainly don't need him at first base, and that's certainly not his only shot to the majors.

Let's talk about third base depth for just a minute. Trevor Plouffe, 27 years old, is hitting .231/.292./.386 for the Twins this season. He has 9 errors in 88 games at the hot corner, and his fielding percentage at third base is .959 this season. I'd be an idiot to state that his defense isn't better than Sano's -- of course it is. But is he that much better? Will he eventually be that much better on defense than Sano might? Open question, but I tend to think that the guy who is 20, a better prospect than Plouffe ever was, and -- let us not forget -- is still learning to play third base after growing up as a shortstop -- will eventually equal or surpass Plouffe defensively. Not to mention that Plouffe's hitting has been awful this season. Finally, I should mention Deibinson Romero for a second. I like him, and he has some pop in his bat. I watched him all last season at New Britain, and he's a fun guy to follow. This season, he has a .952 fielding percentage up at Rochester, to go with a .264/.369/.418 line. He'll turn 27 next month. I'd hardly call him a legitimate prospect, but it's possible he could see major league time. Hypothetically, though, if the Twins are going to invest time and innings (while the team is bad) in a prospect that needs to improve defensively (and offensively), wouldn't you rather Sano get the chance, than Romero? In fact, I'd rather Sano get the chance at some point in 2014 (assuming continued improvement in the minors) over Plouffe.

The bottom line is this: when the Twins are next competing for a division title, Miguel Sano -- and not Trevor Plouffe or Deibinson Romero -- is going to be playing a crucial role. To give up on him at third base now, when things honestly don't matter since the reset of the team is so bad, is incredibly short-sighted.

The idea that the Twins -- headed for their third straight 90 loss season -- would give up on their second best prospect, who just turned 20, at a position of defensive importance for the franchise -- is preposterous. Perhaps Powers was trying to drum up conversation or say something provocative, but I think it came off as crazy. Yes, maybe someday, if Sano doesn't continue to improve defensively, he will become a right fielder (he does have a good arm) or a first baseman. But that day won't occur in 2013. In fact, I'd be shocked if it came before the end of the 2015 season.

The New Britain Coaching Situation

Rock Cats' Manager Jeff Smith.
Courtesy of Richard Messina, Hartford Courant

I've been spoiled. This summer, I've been able to watch Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario, from right over the home dugout, for $15 a ticket. You might think that having Sano and Rosario on the same minor league team, at the same time, is an affiliate's dream come true. To be sure, I'm confident that ticket sales increased after Sano and Rosario arrived, but the life of an affiliate is much more complicated.

I've heard it stated that the Twins control everything on the field, and the Rock Cats control everything else. I wouldn't call that a 100% accurate statement, but you get the general idea. Put yourself in the seat of a (relatively) small business owner -- a MiLB affiliate owner, to be precise -- for just a second: it's difficult to imagine giving away control over the on-the-field product, while retaining control only over the relatively ancillary things, such as ticket prices and promotions (granted, of course, that ticket prices and concession prices go a long way in determining profitability). If I was the Rock Cats' owner, I'd certainly want a large say in the roster, but that's not the way that the system works. In fact, if Terry Ryan calls New Britain and says that Angel Morales is going to play every inning of every game for the next week because he's going to be the "minor league part" of a trade, well, that's the way it's going to be.

Since I've been following the Rock Cats, it's been up-and-down. They will not make the playoffs this year, and fell just short the two prior years. Meanwhile, the Twins minor league system, as a whole, continues to ascend the organizational rankings. As I write this, the overall consensus is that the Twins have a Top-5, and probably even higher, minor league system. Why, then, haven't the Rock Cats been more successful?

I'm not about to place a large amount of blame on the coaches. Looking at this season only as an example: Alex Meyer (best pitching prospect on the roster) was injured half the season; Trevor May (second best pitching prospect on the roster) under-performed; and Sano and Rosario were only in New Britain half the season. The majority of the rest of the roster (excepting maybe half a dozen guys) are unlikely to play major league baseball for more than the proverbial cup of coffee. In other words, although there were Top Prospects, the deeper levels of talent might not have been there. Having a few good guys on paper does not a post-season team make.

But back to the managing. Jeff Smith is in his third year managing in New Britain, after working his way up from Beloit and Ft. Myers. He spent a lot of time in New Britain as a minor leaguer, but never made the majors. I have yet to hear anything on-the-record concerning his managerial skills -- and I actually do believe that he had the full support of the Twins' organization when he benched Sano last month -- but I'm not sure what role the Smith has in the organizational future, and I'm honestly not sure in what regard the current players hold him. Without any particular knowledge base, I'd put both Jake Mauer and Doug Mientkiewicz (today named as manager of the year for the FSL) above Smith. I do believe that the Twins are going to go a different direction this off-season with Ron Gardenhire. And I also believe that a Gardenhire decision will have a significant trickle-down effect on the affiliates.

Much in the same way, I'm not sure what the future holds for pitching coach Stu Cliburn (longtime member of the organization) and new hitting coach Chad Allen. Yep, Chad Allen, the same former Twins player who was named in the Mitchell Report, and who was never a great hitter (not that that is a prerequisite, necessarily, to be able to teach hitting). In short, it's a very interesting mix of young and old that converged this season to coach the Rock Cats. Far be it from me -- or probably anyone reading this -- to speculate with any accuracy whether they did or did not do their jobs, but I can guess that the effect of 3 Twins seasons of 90+ losses is likely to have a very direct effect on the New Britain coaching staff.

I want to end with this: Is there is something to be said for the fact that Cedar Rapids (definitely), Ft. Myers (definitely) and Rochester (likely) are all likely headed to the playoffs this season, but the Rock Cats are not. Is it simply bad timing on the Rock Cats' part, or is there something more?

Coaching is very difficult to judge. I generally agree with the sentiment that managers get too much credit on winning teams, and too much blame on crappy teams. But at the same time, I do think that, in almost any business, change is necessary after a protracted period of losses -- whether that be earnings per share in a Fortune 500 company or a win-loss record in a professional sport. I will be curious to see what happens this off-season. Even if Gardy keeps his job, I expect some change in the Twins' AA ranks.

Thanks, as always, for reading. I welcome any comments.

Trevor May: Still Hopeful

It's been a consistently inconsistent season for Trevor May

Tonight's game was a laugher. No real offense to speak of for New Britain until the game was well out of hand. In fact, it's not even worth discussing Sano or Rosario (on offense, at least, where they were non-factors). Let's get right to what's worth covering tonight: Trevor May, and New Britain's defense.

I think I've seen Trevor May pitch probably 3 or 4 times this season. I'd be lying if I said that May hasn't been frustrating, or that the Twins really pulled one over on the Phillies. Don't get me wrong -- May has been OK -- but not fantastic any means. Control problems have plagued him. Tonight, though, was not a bad outing, despite what the box score will tell you. May started off the game hitting 92-94 on his fastball, 83ish with the change-up, and upper 70s or lower 80s with a nice curve.

May lasted 5 and 2/3 innings and gave up 4 runs on 10 hits; he took the loss. He also struck out 9 and walked only 1 -- the last hitter he faced. On the night, he threw 107 pitches, 75 of them for strikes. In fact, perhaps he was a little too accurate, or threw too many strikes, leading to the 10 hits? He threw strike 1 to the majority of batters, consistently working ahead in the count. He changed speeds, and got a fair number of weakly hit pitches that were either choppers or pop-outs. In short, he did what you would coach any pitcher to do. The results just weren't there. But there's more to the story than that.

New Hampshire's first run of the game, in the second inning, came partially as the result of an infield chopper up the middle that died behind the mound. The next batter hit a well struck opposite field double to right center. Just like that, 1-0 New Hampshire. In the third inning, a 2-out, 2-strike opposite field solo homer may have rattled May, as he gave up a single past Sano to the next batter, but then worked out of the jam.

Aside from these hiccups and despite the runs allowed, May pitched to, generally, what his ceiling should be: low/no walks; the ability to strike guys out; and the ability to induce weakly hit balls by changing speeds. Of the hits he gave up, probably 5 were well struck, 3 were extremely weak (i.e., choppers or flares), and a couple were average.

The fateful 6th inning started with a pop-up behind second base that went for a single (good argument for the "team error" category) after Eddie Rosario and Danny Santana either didn't communicate, or miscommunicated. Thereafter, a clean single, an out (a fantastic diving play by Miguel Sano), a double that Jordan Parraz just missed in CF (which then rolled to the wall) scored 2 more runs. And that was it for May.

That pop-up behind second base felt worse than a lead-off walk. It was deflating, in fact. You just knew that it was going to be the death knell for May, who already was tiring.

May deserved better this evening. Was he perfect? No. But it's important to note that 2 of the 4 runs were partially a result of infield singles -- one of which was really a "team error" type of play. And there was no offensive support, either. Sure, you can't take away infield singles, and sure, team errors happen, but I only count 2 things that went May's way this evening (Daniel Ortiz making a great play to throw out a runner headed to second, and Miguel Sano making a nice diving stop and strong throw to save a hit), while a few things definitely went the other way. It was 4 earned runs. It easily could (should?) have been 2 or 3, and May could (should?) have been able to complete 6 innings. Honestly, it's a strange, strange start to strike out 9 and walk 1 and not be able to make it through 6 innings.

I hope people aren't ready to relegate May to the bullpen for his career. Look at tonight's start: 100+ pitches, still hitting 92 on the gun on his fastball when he came out. 9 Ks; 1 walk (on his last batter when he was gassed). The ERA doesn't support it, but I would absolutely argue that May has been better this year than last. Sure, it's not ideal that he's repeating -- and not dominating -- AA, but there has been improvement. His walks per 9 innings have decreased about .5 walks per game; Ks per 9 are consistent; HRs allowed per 9 have decreased a little; but hits per 9 have increased. Kyle Gibson, who just debuted a couple months ago, is 25. May is still 23 for another month. Let's not talk about May as if he's a Chris Colabello-esque journeyman. Sure, Gibson was delayed as a result of Tommy John surgery and recovery, but my point is only that May isn't "old," even if he is repeating AA. I'm still hopeful that he can figure it out; it just May take a little while longer than Twins fans would prefer.

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One final note. I'm having a Twitter contest to win a Rock Cats Joe Mauer bobblehead that was just given away in New Britain a few weeks ago. Of course, you have to be on Twitter and following me to enter.
Go here for details.

Excellence in Broadcasting: Podcasting with Travis Aune

I was recently invited to join Texas Twins Fan, a/k/a Travis Aune, on his weekly podcast.

I had a blast, as I always do whenever I'm asked to talk about the Rock Cats. Among other items, we discussed Miguel Sano and his suspension, Trevor May and Alex Meyer, Eddie Rosario, and (in our opinion) the Twins' need for Latin American coaches in their farm system and at the major league level.

If you haven't yet, take a listen here.

Thanks again, Travis, for having me on!

The Sano Quandary

If you can't tell, Miguel Sano is a kid.
Also, I own this jersey :)

If I told you that there was a Twins prospect at AA New Britain batting .243, you probably wouldn't blink an eye. If I told you he had some pop in his bat, and a good arm from the left side of the infield, maybe you'd express mild interest. But if I told you that the prospect was Miguel Sano, and that he had a combined 26 HRs and 80 RBIs in early August, playing in 2 pitchers' leagues, you'd probably be interested.

Anyone who is reading this piece probably knows what Miguel Sano might -- or could -- mean to this franchise: without exaggeration, he probably is the best power-hitting Twins prospect in the past 30 years.

He just turned 20, and he's holding his own at AA, which is generally considered the largest jump a hitter will make before reaching the major leagues.

The purpose here isn't so much to cast opinion (to be sure, I have one, but I'm trying not to let it play out), but rather to to present arguments in favor of, and against, the idea of Sano finishing the season at Target Field as a member of the Twins. Without further ado, let's go through the pros and cons.

Call Him Up!!!

1. Sano is the best power hitting prospect the Twins have had in . . . well, forever. The Twins need power. Joshn Willingham and Justin Morneau are probably gone, and in any event they have largely been ineffective in 2013; Trevor Plouffe is sporadic. Right now, this club needs a middle-of-the-order bat that can do damage for the next several years. Anyone have a better in-house option than Sano?

2. Yea, his AA batting average isn't great, but look at that OPS (.915). When he is getting on base and making contact, he's doing big, big damage. He has performed in the clutch this season with the Ft. Myers Mircale and the New Britain Rock Cats, and absolutely nothing suggests he won't continue that trend.

3. Twins fans have been really screwed over these past few years. Sweet Lord: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Jason Marquis, a billion injuries, shredded payroll. Come on, Pohlad Family and Terry Ryan, we really, really need a glimpse of the future, even if he's only 80% ready. You can't sell All-Star tickets on mere promises. Or maybe you can, but good luck filling those seats for the 81 non-All-Star games next season.


People, Let's Be Prudent

1. There is no rush with any prospect in this organization. The Twins need to be taking a long look -- this is a team that needs to be set up to win in 2015-2018. Forget the last month of 2013. And look at his maturity issues. This is a guy that needs to be taught "the process," taught humility, and then brought up when he's ready.

2. Miguel Sano is not dominating AA. Let's not talk about this as if he's tearing the cover off the ball. The guy has 42 strike-outs in 41 games. Yea, he can, and does, hit the ball out of the park, but there's much more to being a major league player than that. And how about his defense. Yes, it's undoubtedly improved, but there's work to be done.

3.  A jump to the big leagues from AA isn't always in the player's best interest. Look at Oswaldo Arcia: a great hitting AA prospect, called up before he was ready. And it messed with his head. Let's not do that with Sano. Let's make sure he's ready, even if that means finishing this season in AA, or even starting 2014 in AAA. Sano is a rare, rare commodity. And the Twins can't screw this up.


In short, this is a great dilemma. Again, Miguel Sano is 20 years old. And tearing the cover off the ball.Yet, even the biggest Sano supporter should concede that he's far from a perfect prospect. For me, going into the second week of August, I'm almost 50/50 as to whether Sano should spend September with the Twins. I'd love to hear you comments -- and arguments both in support and against -- Sano spending the last month of this season in Minneapolis.

Thoughts on Miguel Sano, Discipline, and the Twins' (and Rock Cats') Reaction

"Bocaton" is Miguel Sano's nickname.
It means "Big Mouth."

The biggest Twins story this past week hasn't been the team's resurgence toward respectability with a few series wins, or the impending trade deadline that will likely ship out fan-favorite Justin Morneau. No, to be sure, the focal point of discussion has been out here in New Britain, Connecticut, where Miguel Sano has been benched since a Tuesday night home run that undoubtedly left Terry Ryan (in attendance), manager Jeff Smith, opposing pitcher (and up until this June a Rock Cat himself) Bobby Lanigan, and others less than thrilled. If by chance you haven't seen the home run, here's a link to the video.

There are at least a couple schools of thought being played out in the media, and by fans right now. It's more complicated than two schools, but I'll distill it here for the sake of brevity. One school suggests that the Twins were correct to bench Sano for this display. They believe that the benching isn't an attempt to take away Sano's fire and attitude, but rather to instill in him the "correct" way to play the game. They also note that the benching didn't have as much to do with the homer as it did Sano's reactions to Ryan and Smith when questioned after the game.

The second school suggests that the Twins are trying to take away the lively and fiery personality of one of their best hitting prospects, and a guy that could help turn around this franchise as early as next season. "They're going to tell him to start hitting to opposite field," this crowd might say, in reference to what the Twins suggested to (then struggling hitter) David Ortiz.

As usual, I think the truth is somewhere in-between. I've seen 3 of 4 of Sano's AA home runs in person. A couple facts: he never runs fast around the bases, and he may linger at home plate for a second or two if he knows the ball isn't coming back. That being said, I've never seen him stand at home plate for 5-6 seconds, then take almost 30 seconds to round the bases. For some good background on this particular home run, and Sano's prior dealings with pitcher Bobby Lanigan, please, please read Pat Reusse's column here. Just like with most things in life, there's more than meets the eye in connection with this at-bat.

More important than Reusse's rendition of Lanigan's and Sano's past conflicts, however, is Reusse's call to action to the Twins to hire a coach from Latin America, pronto. To give credit where credit is due, Reusse is not the first person to point this out. I know, among others, that Thrylos at The Tenth Inning Stretch has been clamoring for the Twins to do exactly this for at least a few seasons. And right now, that suggestion really makes sense.

No, hiring a native-Spanish speaker (hopefully a younger, ex-MLB player) is not a cure-all. But there is something to be said for the fact that Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario, and Sano -- three players most recently disciplined by the Twins -- are playing on teams that lack a coach/mentor/leader that shares cultural characteristics. The Twins should be lauded for getting Arcia, Rosario and Sano. All 3 could be All-Star caliber players, and the Twins spent millions to get them. But something is being lost in translation, and I'm not sure what the fix is.

I watched, and loved, Ballplayer Pelotero, the documentary featuring Sano. I can't pretend to understand the struggle of these Latin American ballplayers. Yes, they often are given between several hundred thousand and several million dollars to sign, but that happens at age 16. And at least in Sano's case, it's been stated that he is not in control of that money, and that much of the money has been spent in real estate in his native Dominican Republic. These kids go from poor to somewhat wealthy; from living in the Dominican Republic or a similar country to living in Ft. Myers or Cedar Rapids, Iowa; and from being big-shots in their hometown to being cogs in a large, large wheel. The point here isn't to suggest that we need to feel sympathy for Sano et al., but rather that we, as fans, have no idea the pressures they face, and whether they are at all equipped to face such pressures.

I think Reusse's piece was spot-on. Trading aging veterans, continuing to sign top prospects, and allowing rookies to learn from their mistakes will make the Twins better in the long-run. Hiring multiple native Spanish speaking coaches at multiple levels of the system (assuming they're otherwise qualified, of course), will help this organization immediately. I can't suggest that this is a cure-all, but I can suggest that something is absolutely getting lost in translation. Would a native-Spanish speaking coach have prevented Sano's display? Probably not. But might that coach been able to have diffuse the situation (keeping in mind that Sano's English is improving but is not at all good) before too much damage was done? Perhaps.

A couple final points:

• I expect Sano to be back in the lineup either today or when New Britain comes home tomorrow. The team has been drawing well at home, but is not selling out mid-week games. Sano puts people in seats, and fans want to see him the last month of the season. 
• Sano is not a jerk. I've read on TwinsDaily, and a few other comment boards, where people are saying that they don't care what his personality is, so long as he gets the job done. There's some merit to that: the vast majority of Twins players are very nice and personable, and some (many over the past few seasons) simply don't get the job done. I want Sano to succeed on the ballfield more than I want him to be considered a logical replacement host for Michael Strahan when he retires from his gig with Kelly Ripa. But these aren't mutually exclusive. From my brief encounters with Sano, he is a nice guy. I see him supporting teammates, yelling "let's go," -- and meaning it -- as he trots from third base back to the dugout when the team was down by 5 runs late in a game. I see him signing for kids before games, and tossing balls into the stands as he jogs back into the dugout. Sure, part of this very well might be a display, but by no means have I seen him be rude or discourteous to paying customers or reporters.
• Finally, HE IS 20 YEARS OLD. What kind of dumb stuff did you do when you were 20? Did you think that you knew a lot? I did. Did you think that money grew on trees when you got a big paycheck from that summer job? I did. The Rock Cats (through the Twins) are trying to make Sano mature a little faster than he is ready for. Why? Because next year at this time they fully expect he's going to be manning third base for the Twins. He's going to be on ESPN. He'll have sponsorship deals. He's going to be in the public eye of the nation, not just Twins Territory and Central Connecticut. Videos of his dumb displays won't be grainy and on YouTube; they'll be on SportsCenter for the world to see.